国外关于边境效应引力模型研究现状

自20世纪60年代以来,引力模型被广泛地应用于研究国际贸易中的双边贸易流量。在引力模型不断发展和完善的基础上,众多学者开始从不同角度研究基于引力模型的边境效应问题。本文试图将国外繁多的研究进行总结和概述,以推动国内对于边境效应引力模型的理论和实证研究。     

Trade Costs in Bilateral Trade Flows: Heterogeneity and Zeroes in Structural Gravity Models

This paper contributes to the explanation of international trade flows with structural gravity models taking heterogeneity and excess zeroes into account. We introduce a more general hypothesis on the structure of trade costs in Helpman et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2008; 123 , 2, 441) theoretical model that is capable of explaining over‐dispersion in trade data. Zero‐inflated negative binomial models are considered to analyse the impact of trade costs, measured in terms of geographical distance and contiguity effects. An analysis related to a sample of 37 countries' trade flows, with heterogeneous effects across sectors and trade‐integrated areas, such as APEC and EU, is presented. The size of exporting and destination economies and cultural and institutional factors are considered as influencing both the extensive and the intensive margin of trade.     

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models

This paper aims to identify the main causes of bilateral trade flows in OECD countries. The specific features of the study include the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as the two important explanatory variables, conduct of unit root tests in the panel data framework and careful consideration of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to bilateral trade, while the distance, measured by both geographical distance and relative factor endowment, between trade partner countries has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and new growth theories.     

多边贸易体制在应对全球气候变化中的作用

随着国际社会对气候变化问题的日益关注,国际贸易与气候变化的关系成为各方讨论和协商的主要内容,同时多边贸易体制在应对气候变化中的作用也成为各方关注的焦点。本文分析了国际贸易发展对气候变化的影响和多哈回合谈判如何在应对气候变化中发挥作用,认为为了使多边贸易体制更好地在应对气候变化中发挥作用,同时使应对气候变化的措施对贸易的负面影响最小化,尚有许多工作要做。     

Probabilities of Consistent Election Outcomes with Majorities Based on Difference in Support

Computer simulations are used to evaluate the likelihood of consistent outcomes under the class of majorities based on difference in support. These majorities require certain consensus in collective preferences to declare an alternative as the winner. More precisely, individuals show preference intensities in the unit interval among each pair of alternatives and it is required that the winner alternative obtains a difference in the sum of the intensities with respect to the loser alternative. This difference is a real number located between 0 and the total number of voters. We introduce the values of the required threshold for which majorities based on difference in support lead to transitive and triple-acyclic collective decisions with a probability of 1. Our results improve the previous theoretical ones since they require softer thresholds to reach consistent collective decisions.     

欧美国家边境地区的一体化效应及其启示

本文根据边境地区的一体化效应理论,比较了美国-墨西哥边境地区和欧洲部分地区在一体化进程中不同的发展效应,分析了效应差异的原因和形成机制,指出一体化对边境地区发展的促进作用是不确定的,影响一体化效应的因素十分复杂.并以云南边境地区存在的各种贸易障碍为例,指出只有采取多层次的系统整合措施才能消除众多的发展障碍,发挥一体化对边境地区的促进作用.     

Designing Green Entrepreneurship Model in Sustainable Development Consistent with the Performance of Tehran Industrial Towns

The purpose of this paper design a green entrepreneurship model in sustainable development path consistent with the performance of industrial towns in Tehran (center of IRAN). The population was the active small/medium enterprises (SMEs) with full capacity in industrial towns of Tehran, which were about 3000 active units, accounting for 20% of the companies in Tehran industrial towns. Sample size was obtained as 514, which was used in calculations. The results showed that green entrepreneurship mediates the effect of green innovation, organizational culture, competitive advantage, and social-environmental responsibility of company on the financial performance of company. There was no mediating role concerning the effect of state laws and regulations on company’s financial performance. Additionally, market turbulence moderates effect of green entrepreneurship on organization financial performance, but financial shocks do not modulate the effect of green entrepreneurship on organization finance.     

我国农产品标准化的贸易效应——基于引力模型的实证分析

近些年来,我国农产品标准化水平大幅提高,极大地促进了农产品贸易的发展,但与发达国家还存在很大的差距,这种差距是导致我国对发达国家出口受到贸易限制的主要原因,同时也使得我国不能像发达国家一样,将标准化作为贸易保护的政策工具。运用引力模型从实证角度对标准化对我国农产品贸易的促进效应和贸易保护效应的检验也证实了这一观点。我国必须采取措施,提高农产品标准化水平,促进对外贸易的发展。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区下中国的静态贸易效应——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文介绍了双边贸易和贸易效应引力模型的研究进展,指出本文的创新之处。然后,通过建立两个引力模型进行实证研究得出结论。中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国的静态贸易效应中贸易转移效应远远大于贸易创造效应,而且贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应之间的差额逐年增长。最后,本文对此做出了解释,并建议未来的研究内容可以集中分析某一特定产业的贸易效应。     

Unilateral Effects in Merger Analysis: Models,Merits, and Merger Policy

This paper models the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) unilateral effects merger policy using a sample of 192 investigations undertaken between 1993 and 2010. Statistical analysis shows that the number of significant rivals represents a reasonable structural proxy for the FTC’s merger challenge decision, although other variables, such as impediments to entry, fringe share, clear evidence of head-to-head competition between the merging firms, competitive effects’ evidence, and efficiency-related proxies, also affect the decision to challenge a merger. Some of these variables suggest that the innovations in the 2010 Merger Guidelines had already been applied in FTC merger analysis.     

Matrix Representation of Conflict Resolution in Multiple-Decision-Maker Graph Models with Preference Uncertainty

Explicit matrix representations of solution concepts in a graph model of a multiple-decision-maker conflict with preference uncertainty are developed. In a graph model, the relative preferences of each DM over the available states are crucial in determining which states are stable according to any stability definition (solution concept). Unfortunately, it is often difficult to obtain accurate preference information in practical cases, so models that allow preference uncertainty can be very useful. In this work, stability definitions are extended to apply to graph models with this feature. The extension is easiest to implement using the matrix representation of a conflict model, which was developed to ease the coding of logically-defined stability definitions. Another benefit of matrix representation is that it facilitates modification and extension of the definitions.     

A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration

This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it also results in trade diversion; that is, a declining share of accession country exports and imports with non‐EU15 countries. Overall, the trade balances of the accession countries suffer larger trade deficits after accession due to import growth surpassing export growth. The extent of increase in the trade deficit due to accession is inversely related to the level of integration and income of the new members. Hence integration is path‐dependent and the EU should take this into account when preparing for further enlargements to the Balkans and Southeast Europe.     

Investigating Customer Resistance to Change in Transaction Relationship with an Internet Vendor

Many academics and practitioners have reiterated the importance of online customer retention to ensure long‐term profitability. Consequently, a number of studies have identified various means of customer retention. These studies lay significant emphasis on creating customer loyalty. However, retaining customers, especially in the context of Internet shopping, is very difficult because of the low costs in comparison and switching. Most of the loyalty programs have also shown disappointing results. This study suggests that by tapping on an individual customer's inclination to resist changes in a transaction relationship, an Internet vendor can achieve customer retention. Using status quo bias theory, this study examines customer resistance to change (CRC) as a means of retaining customers in a transaction relationship with the Internet vendor. The empirical study of an Internet bookstore reveals that trust, relative attractiveness, and switching costs together influence CRC. The empirical results also show that CRC and switching costs have positive effects on willingness to pay more. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

长三角商贸流通网络结构特征、效应及影响因素——基于改进引力模型的社会网络分析

基于2005—2017年长三角41个城市数据,文章采用修正的引力模型构建加权有向商贸流通关联网络,并借助社会网络分析、OLS和QAP回归方法实证研究了长三角商贸流通网络结构特征及其效应和影响因素。研究发现：长三角商贸流通网络中节点联系日趋紧密且连通性增强,但存在明显的冗余联系和等级化特征;网络中各节点影响力的差异正在缩小,且省会城市仍占据商贸流通枢纽中心主导地位;特征向量中心性显著强化各节点商贸流通关联强度,中介中心性显著强化网络极化效应;收入水平、地方保护主义、金融发展、产业结构合理化、互联网、物流业发展和贸易开放的城际差异将显著影响商贸流通网络结构演变,其中金融发展、互联网信息基础设施和物流业发展发挥着关键性作用。     

新时代中俄地方合作背景下黑龙江省边境地区对俄合作发展路径选择

2018年俄罗斯远东地区是俄罗斯投资增速最快的地区,成为提振俄罗斯经济的重要突破口。俄罗斯加大发展远东的力度,东北振兴需要中俄双方进行多路径对接合作。基于新时代的中俄地方合作背景,黑龙江边境对俄合作前景广阔。     

Technical Changes and the Rate of Profit in Models with Joint Production and Externalities: A Duality Approach

This paper generalizes a result due to Okishio: the rate of profit increases as a result of cost reducing technical changes. The generalization is carried out first in a model of joint production which allows for new processes and commodities to be introduced or some of the old ones to be discarded. Then we consider nonlinear models incorporating external and internal (dis)economies     

R&D Investments in Markets with Network Effects

We consider process R&D investments of firms in markets with network effects and incomplete product compatibility. Our results indicate that network effects increase the firms’ individual investments in R&D. The presence of network effects weakens the positive impact of R&D cooperation on firms’ R&D investments. Further, we show that R&D competition can bring socially optimal level of investment, and this is not possible in markets without network effects. Finally, our results suggest that innovation policy oriented at promoting R&D cooperation between enterprises can be counterproductive in markets with network effects and incomplete product compatibility.

     

基于服务业增加值的长三角城市网络关系分析——借助引力模型的实证研究

随着长江三角洲城市群同城化发展进程的加快,各城市间的相互影响持续深化,城市间分工合作布局发生了明显调整,各城市要素资源集散与影响能力有所变化。以服务业增加值为主要参数,借助引力模型,运用相关网络关系分析软件及指标研究长江三角洲城市网络复杂关系,可以比较清楚地发现整个长江三角洲城市网络结构变动趋势:各城市服务业体系更趋完备,相互间直接联系有所增强,而不再像之前那样要通过几个主要城市进行联系。未来各城市要进一步增强对所在城市网络生产与消费的撮合功能,提高对所在城市网络资源的调配与控制能力,提升在城市网络中的地位和作用,必然会经历一个从所在网络中心城市承接某些功能后促进自我发展的阶段。这里有两条路径可供选择:一条是依托货物商品流向资金信息流转型升级的路径;另一条是从专业性城市向综合性城市发展的路径。当然,以上两条路径也可同步发展,相辅相成,共同促进。     

Effects of distribution channel structure in markets with vertically differentiated products

This study examines how the structure of distribution channels may influence firms’ quality and price strategies and how they may in turn affect consumer welfare. It treats product quality as a decision variable so that the degree of product substitution becomes endogenous rather than exogenous as in previous studies. We find that, with vertically differentiated firms, the changes in channel structure have asymmetric effects depending on whether they occur in the high-quality channel or in the low-quality channel. The product quality of the high-quality channel decreases when it decentralizes unilaterally. However, product quality of the low-quality channel would increase when it decentralizes. The high-quality manufacturer and its channel suffer more from decentralization in comparison with their low-quality counterparts, and the low-quality manufacturer actually receives greater profits when both channels are decentralized. An important driver behind these asymmetries is the interaction between firms’ pricing incentives in integrated versus decentralized channels and what consumer segments they serve. Our analysis indicates that decentralization may reduce consumer welfare, but decentralization in the high-quality channel hurts consumers more than that in the low-quality channel. Therefore in a competitive environment where firms make both quality and price decisions, channel integration would have significant welfare enhancement effects through the elimination of double marginalization, especially if it happens in the high-quality channel. Moreover, we demonstrate that once quality is endogenized, integration is the only equilibrium of channel structure choices. This suggests that the private incentives of firms may actually benefit consumers but do not have to be in line with the general preference of industry regulation for decentralization.