The Family's Financial Support as a “Poisoned Gift”: A Family Embeddedness Perspective on Entrepreneurial Intentions

We argue that greater availability of financial support by the family for creating a new venture entails stronger financial and non‐financial obligations. Cognizant of these obligations, potential founders anticipate negative performance implications for the planned firm and threats to the family system in the case of their non‐fulfillment. We thus postulate that the formation of actual entrepreneurial intentions is less likely the greater the available financial support. We confirm this by studying a sample of 23,304 respondents from 19 countries and find the negative relationship to be dependent on family cohesion and on individual entrepreneurial self‐efficacy.     

Financial Crisis and Productivity Evolution: Evidence from Indonesia

We examine how the productivity of different industries changes over the course of a financial crisis by exploiting cross‐firm, within‐industry differences in productivity resulting from the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We show that the crisis coincided with dramatic changes in productivity and that many of these changes were sustained in the long run. In particular, an increasing number of industries experienced decreases in average firm productivity during the crisis and did not recover. Further, we find that changes in industrial productivity in the recovery period are driven not by increases in the productivity of existing firms, but rather by the entry of new firms and changes to the reallocation of market share. Finally, we find that foreign exporters' productivity was the least impacted by the crisis, suggesting that only access to alternate forms of both capital and international markets can help to smooth investment and maintain productivity over a financial crisis.     

金融危机是否对企业出口存在异质性冲击——基于融资约束视角的分析

本文采用我国工业企业数据库2004-2009年的出口企业微观数据,研究了融资约束视角下金融危机与企业出口之间的关系。实证结果表明:全球金融危机对我国不同类型企业出口造成了显著的负面冲击;但从融资约束角度看,相对于国有和股份制企业以及大型企业而言,受到融资约束困扰的主要是出口企业中的民营企业和中小企业;由于金融市场的不确定性增加、企业经营环境恶化等因素,金融危机加剧了我国民营企业和中小企业融资约束难的问题,而对国有和股份制企业以及大型企业的融资约束基本无影响。可见,金融危机对我国企业出口的影响具有明显的异质性。     

金融阈值视角下的金融危机——从美国次贷危机看被漠视的金融临界点

此次美国金融危机是过度衍生和过度虚拟的金融资源危机,是全球经济金融发展的最大的不可持续,再次尖锐地考问虚拟经济与金融的本质及二者有无边界。金融必须尊重极限,仅用增长规模和财富聚敛作为衡量成功的惟一尺度,正破坏着珍贵的金融资源。通过生态阈值的警醒、逻辑斯蒂增长模型的提示,应该认识到金融发展和扩张同样有其不可逾越的金融阈值。面对人类贪婪而自负的挑战,次贷危机的爆发证实了金融临界点的客观存在性。沙堆实验、混沌论提供了理性认识金融阈值的科学方法,而确立正确的价值观是更为现实的道德标准。     

金融中介发展与技术进步——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

根据内生经济增长理论中的新熊彼特增长模型,金融发展能够促进技术进步从而推动长期经济增长。本文利用中国大陆省级面板数据对金融中介发展与技术进步的关系进行了实证检验。基于对银行信贷决策自主性程度的考虑,私营企业及个体贷款占贷款总额的比重被用来度量金融中介发展水平。在控制了人力资本、外商直接投资、专利保护水平以及证券化水平之后,本文发现金融中介发展对技术进步具有非常显著的正向解释力。     

欧债危机、主权风险冲击与金融传导──来自中国金融市场的证据

本文以三大国际评级机构发布的欧元区17国长期主权信用评级信息作为欧元区主权风险的替代变量,从多市场极端收益联动和市场间传导机制的角度,检验了欧债危机爆发前后欧元区主权风险冲击对中国金融市场的影响机制及其内在传导机理。实证检验结果表明:欧债危机下欧元区主权风险冲击显著增强了中国金融市场间的联合极端收益波动;这一影响在三大评级机构发布的不同欧元区国家主权信用评级信息下和中国不同金融市场间具有显著的差异性;当主权评级调至接近或达到投机级时能对中国金融市场产生系统性的投机级临界效应。本文的实证结论为增强中国政府金融干预和处置能力,从而维护金融体系稳定提供了较强的政策启示。     

Crisis Management and Resolution:Lessons from the Financial Crisis

The recent crisis was unusual in its speed and breadth and the type of countries affected.Systemic crises, situations of significant stress in the financial sector, followed by significant policy interventions, often affect several countries at the same time.In the past, though, crises have been largely limited to specific regions or types of economies, the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, Latin America in the mid-1990s, Asia in the late 1990s, and the emerging market economies of the early 2000s.The recent crisis has been unusual in its global nature, affecting countries with a speed and virulence not seen since the Great Depression, with major advance countries and countries recently integrating with the European Union (EU) most affected.     

金融危机下中美经济的前景

本文认为,股票市场下滑与房地产市场下降是经济危机的两个主要表现,其中美国房地产价值下跌实际上也是导致经济危机的一个很重要的原因.文章指出,受经济危机影响,美国股票市场暂时处于低迷状态,但基本面是好的,是积极向上的.美国2008年第四季度CDP下降了2%,2009年第一季度又下降了2%,2009年第二季度还会下降.如果不能采取比较好的政策,美国在接下来的10年里发展势头可能不会很好,但并没有进入经济大萧条时期.美国经济不会一直滑下去,将来有可能通过减少税收、提高生产力等方式走出经济泥潭,实现经济的繁荣,但要以牺牲10年的增长速度为代价.文章提出,中国人口众多,经济活力很大,中国经济的恢复是没有问题的,当然这需要制定很好的政策,如引进和开发高新技术等.中国需要变得更为开放一些,以吸引更多国际企业进入,同时中国还要发展更多的国际化公司,并在一些发达国家建立分支机构,这一点也非常重要.从工业看,中国通过与西方国家密切合作,在国际分工中的地位不断提升,这也是中国经济过去10年来不断高速增长的一个原因.如果能够继续维持较高的增长速度,中国将于2025年进入世界富国行列.中国肯定会赶上来,目前只是一个时间问题.     

Economic integration across Latin America: Evidence from labour markets, 1990–2013

Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labour markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labour markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labour market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labour markets within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labour market integration.     

缘起于金融危机的公允价值会计争论之探——兼以金融机构的视角

此次全球金融危机引起的对公允价值会计的强烈争论对公允价值来说是一个挑战,其关乎到公允价值能否继续使用及推广。回顾已有的研究对公允价值的理解,可以看出公允价值会计的许多争论是源于对公允价值的概念及其目的的混淆。在金融危机发生的情况下,对盯市会计①存在的问题的关注可以理解,但是会计准则中规定的所用的公允价值会计并不只是由盯市会计方法确定,将这种关注同样施加给公允价值会计是否合理,还有待于实证检验。虽然公允价值会计与金融危机的关系并不清楚,可公允价值会计在实施中存在的问题也是导致争论的因素。分析银行等金融机构对公允价值会计的态度,可以从另一个角度给出对公允价值会计争论的理解。     

On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines the EDF and accounting variables, and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. Classification accuracy and bankruptcy forecast tests confirm the main results. The model is also able to sustain high long-term performance when augmenting the forecast horizon from one to two and three years.     

The globalisation–welfare state nexus: Evidence from Asia

How globalisation influences social expenditure has been examined for industrialised countries. Globalisation has often been shown to be positively associated with social expenditure in established industrialised countries, a finding that corroborates the compensation hypothesis. Scholars have focused on industrialised countries, because social expenditure is difficult to measure in developing countries. I use new data on social expenditure for Asian non‐OECD countries. Globalisation is measured by the new KOF Globalisation Index. My results do not suggest that globalisation influenced social expenditures in Asia. Neither do the results suggest that the nexus between globalisation and social expenditures varied across high‐income countries, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, and lower‐income Asian countries or across Asian regions. It is conceivable that Asian citizens did not demand increasing social support when globalisation proceeded rapidly because they enjoyed family and other private assistance. Asian countries also have weaker tax and labour market institutions than OECD countries and have therefore more difficulties in increasing social expenditure.     

Foreign Ownership Restriction and Momentum – Evidence from Emerging Markets

This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on stock price efficiency and return predictability in emerging markets. It finds that stocks fully investible for foreign investors exhibit stronger price momentum than non‐investible stocks. The difference in momentum effects between stocks with different levels of investibility cannot be fully explained by world market risk, size, turnover, or country‐specific factors. Further tests show that fully investible stocks have no post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and their short‐term momentum reverses over a longer horizon. These results show that the stronger momentum of highly investible stocks does not appear to be driven by foreign investors' underreaction to firm‐specific information, but is more likely to be generated by their positive feedback trading.     

金融自由化风险向金融危机转化的可能性分析

本文认为,发展中国家的金融自由化在提高金融机构效率和赢利的同时,会带来许多新的风险,而且在一定条件下有可能导致金融危机。金融自由化带来的乐观预期和大量国外私人资本的内流会使汇率高估,极易遭受投机的攻击。从带来风险到最终引发金融危机,主要有三个风险阶段,即违约风险阶段、到期不能偿还风险阶段和汇率风险阶段。当金融自由化(如利率自由化、金融业务与机构准入自由化和资本账户自由化)带来的新的风险累积到风险临界值时,在受到国内突发事件、国际金融市场波动和投机资本攻击的情况下,金融自由化风险便会向金融危机演变。     

金融危机视角下的社会保障机制及其功能述评

社会保障机制是市场机制和政府机制的融合,主要包括金融深化机制即社会保障与资本市场的互动机制、收入分配与社会分层机制和需求管理与社会稳定机制。随着金融危机社会影响的日益凸现,相应的社会政策必将出台,正确认识和合理运用社会保障机制是做出恰当政策选择、进行经济社会结构深刻调整的重要前提。     

功能观视角下的农村金融体系

“三农”问题的解决将有赖于农村金融体系改革的深入,本文将从金融功能观的角度,探讨我国农村金融体系在实现金融功能上存在的诸多不足,建议应从分析农村微观金融需求出发,得出恰当的金融功能要求,在此基础上构建多层次、梯度化的农村金融体系,同时宏观上通过完善金融基础设施和公共政策以保证金融体系更有效率地行使金融基本功能。     

The Performance of Trading Firms in the Services Sectors – Comparable Evidence from Four EU Countries

We examine trade complexity and the implications of adding additional dimensions of trade for firm performance among services producers. We use unique firm‐level data to compare these patterns across four EU countries. Overall, services firms are relatively less engaged in trade than manufacturing firms; they mostly trade goods and are more likely to import than to export. Trade in services is quite rare; services are more likely to be traded by firms already trading goods. Trading firms in the services sectors are significantly larger, more productive and pay higher wages than non‐traders. Two‐way traders outperform one‐way traders. Changes in trading status by either adding another dimension of trade (imports, exports) or another type of product (goods, services) are infrequent and are associated with significant preswitching premia. In contrast, learning effects from switching trading status are uncommon. This points to significant fixed cost of being engaged in trade and confirms some previous findings that trading services firms have similar traits as their manufacturing counterparts. Apart from greater trade participation in smaller countries, we do not observe systematic differences in terms of trade or switching premia between the four countries that might be attributable to differences in country characteristics.     

The Employment-Financing Nexus: Evidence from a Panel of West German Firms

The objective of the paper is to investigate the linkage between financial factors and employment decisions of West German firms. The underlying model is based upon rational expectations and convex adjustment costs. The time series, cross-section estimates for the period 1989–1994 are obtained using information on individual firms contained in business surveys. We find that financial constraints can indeed restrain the level of employment in small firms. On the contrary, there is no evidence that this result applies to larger firms as well.