The demand for public transport: The effects of fares,quality of service,income and car ownership

This paper reports on key findings from a collaborative study whose objective was to produce an up-to-date guidance manual on the factors affecting the demand for public transport for use by public transport operators and planning authorities, and for academics and other researchers. Whilst a wide range of factors was examined in the study, the paper concentrates on the findings regarding the influence of fares, quality of service and income and car ownership. The results are a distillation and synthesis of identified published and unpublished information on the factors affecting public transport demand. The context is principally that of urban surface transport in Great Britain, but extensive use was made in the study of international sources and examples.     

Social exclusion, location and transport disadvantage amongst non-driving seniors in a Melbourne municipality, Australia

Over the past decade, researchers have refocused their attention upon the interconnection between locationally disadvantaged communities and poor transport services in order to better understand social exclusion. Limited access to private and public transport has often been identified as a major contributing factor to social isolation and economic poverty that certain groups in the community experience. To date, an insufficient amount of research attention has focused on the elderly or seniors, who are often identified as being subject to social exclusion because of difficulties associated with travelling outside their homes to access services and facilities especially for non-car drivers. Moreover, a disproportionate amount of research undertaken on transport related forms of social exclusion in Australia has understandably looked towards the outskirts of its major urban centres, where services and facilities are sparsely located and generally only accessible by car. This paper provides a different insight by analysing a middle distant municipality where large spatial concentrations of seniors are to be found, some of whom do not have ready access to a car or have difficulty accessing the public bus service. Using a variety of data sources for a municipality in Melbourne, this case study reveals that social exclusion of non-car driving seniors is reinforced by a regional public transport system that cannot adequately service the entire municipality. For now, the incidence of locational and transport related disadvantage is restricted to small pockets of the municipality, but as seniors age and surrender their car driving licences this problem could become more serious. The study concludes by calling for more analyses to be undertaken into transport engendered social exclusion if this problem is to be contained as the post-war baby-boomers generation ages across most of the middle suburbs of Australian cities.     

Exploring public transport equity between separate disadvantaged cohorts: a case study in Perth,Australia

This paper explores the equity distribution of public transport for three separate disadvantaged cohorts including elderly residents, low-income households and no-car households for Perth, Western Australia. It also undertakes a city-wide equity analysis of Perth and compares this with a published analysis for Melbourne. Overall the public transport distribution of the three socially disadvantaged groups was identified to be less equitable when compared to the population as a whole. The elderly had the most inequitable distribution of population relative to other cohorts. Perth’s population exhibits a 0.52 Gini coefficient suggesting a relatively unequal spatial distribution of services to the population. However, this is much better than Melbourne (at 0.68). Results imply that 70% of Perth’s population have only 33% of services supplied, whilst in Melbourne this figure was 19%. Policy implications and areas for future research in this field were identified.     

The impact of metropolitan,county, and local land use on driving emissions in US metropolitan areas: Mediator effects of vehicle travel characteristics

Many municipalities in the U.S. pursue compact development to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from driving. Despite the efforts, however, recent studies suggest that some land use strategies such as densification and mixed-use development may result in slower vehicle movements, and consequently generate more driving emissions. Since vehicle miles of travel (VMT) is only a proxy and not an exact measure of emissions, reduction in VMT may not lead to a proportional reduction in transportation GHG emissions. Aside from local land use efforts, regional factors also influence vehicle travel and associated emissions.This study investigates the relationship between land use, vehicle travel, and driving emissions in the selected U.S. metropolitan areas at multiple geographic levels. The study employed structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques to examine how land use influences vehicle travel characteristics and associated emissions. The main data sources for the analyses include the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) add-on samples and the Smart Location Database (SLD) from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study results show that VMT reduction and the associated environmental benefit do not show a one-on-one relationship due to the emissions penalty of lowered vehicle operating speed. Vehicle travel and associated emissions are not only influenced by local urban form factors but also affected by the greater geographical context.     

Residential property value impacts of proximity to transport infrastructure: An investigation of bus rapid transit and heavy rail networks in Brisbane,Australia

Public transport investment is normally targeted at increasing accessibility which land rent theory identifies and will in turn increase land values. There is a clear policy interest in how much land values increase following a new transport investment so as to establish if there is sufficient land value uplift to capture and to help pay or contribute to investment plans. Identifying an uplift for residential land has been well studied in the context of new light rail systems and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in developing countries but there is little evidence for BRT in developed countries.This paper has two objectives. First, to examine long term impact of BRT in a developed world context in Brisbane, Australia. Brisbane's BRT uses an open system design which contrasts with the closed system design of the successful BRT systems in South America and elsewhere, including the BRT in the suburbs of Sydney, Australia. Second, BRT in Brisbane was introduced to a network already dominated by a radial heavy rail network and this investigation recognises that the uplift from BRT introduction may therefore be different to a BRT in a single mode city. A third motivation is to consider the spatial distribution of uplift which is an essential pre-requisite to understanding the distributional impact if uplift is used to contribute to infrastructure provision.Spatial modelling is used to examine the accessibility impacts of the BRT at a global level. This is followed by Geographical Weighted Regression, used to examine the spatial distribution of accessibility using a local model.The results show that there is greater uplift in Brisbane, as compared to that identified by studies of Sydney's BRT which is likely due to the greater network coverage of BRT in Brisbane and less strong competition of rail. Land value uplift is also spatially distributed over the network giving higher uplift in some areas than others and lower values than typically found with rail based systems in developed countries. However, the degree of uplift is relatively low, with proximity to BRT stations attracting more uplift than proximity to train stations.     

Conceptualising convenience: Transportation practices and perceptions of inner-urban high density residents in Brisbane,Australia

High-density living in inner-urban areas has been promoted to encourage the use of more sustainable modes of travel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, previous research presents mixed results on the relationship between living in proximity to transport systems and reduced car-dependency. This research examines inner-city residents’ transportation practices and perceptions, via 24 qualitative interviews with residents from high-density dwellings in inner-city Brisbane, Australia. Whilst participants consider public transport accessible and convenient, car use continues to be relied on for many journeys. Transportation choices are justified through complex definitions of convenience containing both utilitarian and psycho-social elements, with three key themes identified: time-efficiency, single versus multi-modal trips, and distance to and purpose of journey, as well as attitudinal, affective and symbolic elements related to transport mode use. Understanding conceptions of transport convenience held by different segments of the transport users market, alongside other factors strongly implicated in travel mode choice, can ensure targeted improvements in sustainable transport service levels and infrastructure as well as information service provision and behavioural change campaigns.     

Comparison of efficiency between public and private transport modes using excess commuting: An experience in Dar es Salaam

The excess commuting concept is well-known in developed countries. Since the introduction of the concept in the developed countries, the excess commuting framework has been used to derive a set of benchmarks and indices for the analyses of spatial mismatch, jobs-housing balance, and commuting efficiency in urban regions. However, there are very few studies which have examined excess commuting parameters in relation to mode of transport in the current excess commuting literature. Additionally, very few studies on excess commuting have been undertaken in developing countries with no evidence on any study in African cities. This paper attempts to add to the excess commuting literature by examining and comparing excess commuting parameters between public and private transport modes in Dar es Salaam city. The study investigated the effects of land use patterns in the year 2007 (the base year) and the projected land uses in the year 2030 on excess commuting parameters. The results suggest that public transport in Dar es Salaam is very good in terms of providing excellent options to get everywhere in the city as it connects homes and jobs as well as private transport. This is very different from cities in the more developed world, especially in the USA, where public transport is less effective at connecting origins and destinations. It was also found that the land use scenario in the year 2030 encourages a travel pattern that increases the actual average travel distance.     

Slowly coming out of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia: Implications for working from home and commuting trips by car and public transport

With the onset of COVID-19 restrictions and the slow relaxing of many restrictions, it is imperative that we understand what this means for the performance of the transport network. In going from almost no commuting, except for essential workers, to a slow increase in travel activity with working from home (WFH) continuing to be both popular and preferred, this paper draws on two surveys, one in late March at the height of restrictions and one in late May as restrictions are starting to be partially relaxed, to develop models for WFH and weekly one-way commuting travel by car and public transport. We compare the findings as one way to inform us of the extent to which a sample of Australian residents have responded through changes in WFH and commuting. While it is early days to claim any sense of a new stable pattern of commuting activity, this paper sets the context for ongoing monitoring of adjustments in travel activity and WFH, which can inform changes required in the revision of strategic metropolitan transport models as well as more general perspectives on future transport and land use policy and planning.     

Joint estimation of mode and time of day choice accounting for arrival time flexibility,travel time reliability and crowding on public transport

This study develops joint choice models of mode and departure time for implementation in MetroScan, a new version of TRESIS (Hensher and Ton, 2002). Separate models are estimated for work and non-work purposes, testing all practical alternatives of model structure with a rich set of explanatory variables. The contributions of the current work to the existing TRESIS are twofold. First, travel demand for non-work purposes such as shopping, social and recreation are explicitly modelled in MetroScan as opposed to TRESIS that scales the demand for work purposes to obtain non-work travel demand. Second, choices of travel mode and departure time become more sensitive to situational factors such as the flexibility of arrival time, the reliability of travel time and crowding. Willingness to pay for various improvements to the level of service is derived. We describe and demonstrate how the proposed models are applied in the general modelling framework of MetroScan.     

Verkehrsverbund: the success of regional public transport in Germany, Austria and Switzerland

The Verkehrsverbund system of public transport organization offers a practical solution to the problem of providing integrated regional public transport service for the increasingly suburbanized metropolitan areas of Europe and North America. By carefully coordinating fares and services for all routes, all types of public transport, and all parts of the metropolitan region, Verkehrsverbund systems in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland have greatly improved the quality of the public transport alternative to the automobile. Five Verbund systems were chosen for detailed analysis: Hamburg, Munich, the Rhein-Ruhr region, Vienna and Zurich. This article documents the success of each Verbund in attracting more public transport riders and, in most cases, increasing or at least stabilizing public transport's share of modal split. It also analyzes the reasons for the success of the Verkehrsverbund, including service expansion, improvement in service quality, more attractive fares, and extensive marketing campaigns. The five case study systems offer lessons for other public transport systems facing similar challenges of dealing with increasing auto ownership and suburbanization. The article concludes with an analysis of the most challenging problem of all: public transport finance. As shown dramatically by the five case studies, the service improvements and fare structures needed for truly effective regional public transport require substantial government subsidy. Fiscal austerity at every government level is leading to subsidy cutbacks in most countries of Europe and North America. The five case study systems examined in this article provide lessons on how to deal most effectively with limited subsidy funds in order to minimize service deterioration, fare increases and ridership losses.     

Verkehrsverbund: The evolution and spread of fully integrated regional public transport in Germany,Austria, and Switzerland

Throughout the world, urban areas have been rapidly expanding, exacerbating the problem of many public transport (PT) operators providing service over different governmental jurisdictions. Over the past five decades, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland have successfully implemented regional PT associations (called Verkehrsverbund or VV), which integrate services, fares, and ticketing while coordinating public transport planning, marketing, and customer information throughout metropolitan areas, and in some cases, entire states. A key difference between VVs and other forms of regional PT coordination is the collaboration and mutual consultation of government jurisdictions and PT providers in all decision-making. This article examines the origins of VVs, their spread to 13 German, Austrian, and Swiss metropolitan areas from 1967 to 1990, and their subsequent spread to 58 additional metropolitan areas from 1991 to 2017, now serving 85% of Germany's and 100% of Austria's population. The VV model has spread quickly because it is adaptable to the different degrees and types of integration needed in different situations. Most of the article focuses on six case studies of the largest VVs: Hamburg (opened in 1967), Munich (1971), Rhine-Ruhr (1980), Vienna (1984), Zurich (1990), and Berlin-Brandenburg (1999). Since 1990, all six of those VVs have increased the quality and quantity of service, attracted more passengers, and reduced the percentage of costs covered by subsidies. By improving PT throughout metropolitan areas, VVs provide an attractive alternative to the private car, helping to explain why the car mode share of trips has fallen since 1990 in all of the case studies.     

The factors in residents' mobility in rural towns of China: Car ownership,road infrastructure and public transport services

The improvement of rural people's mobility in developing countries has informed many policies. Still, debates remain on which policies are efficient, for instance, building more roads, providing public transport or promoting car ownership. The empirical evidence for these debates at the national level remains scarce. As a result, this paper aims to provide fresh evidence for discussions by examining residents' mobility in China using nationwide survey data with 12,524 respondents from 119 rural towns. The results of the analysis show car ownership is the most significant factor influencing rural people's mobility than other factors. Higher car ownership relates to a higher travel frequency to counties or cities. Other kinds of transport vehicles (i.e. electric cars, motorcycles and electric bikes) also have positive but relatively weaker impacts on rural mobility. For public transport, it is more accessible to access bus stops, which encourages travel to higher-order centres rather than increasing the frequency of county bus services. The accessibility of high-quality road systems tends to have a negative influence and has combined effects with levels of local services. People from towns with insufficient local services and poor access to highways travel the most frequently to higher-order centres. This study highlights the critical role of road investments and car ownership enhancement policies in improving mobility. Moreover, this study also underscores the supplemental role of public transport services given the current low car ownership rates in rural towns of China and the global consensus on sustainable green transport development. It highlights the importance of engaging eco-friendly and locally adaptive transport alternatives, such as electric cars and electric bikes. It also calls for a rational distribution of bus stops and more flexible, convenient, and physically accessible public transport and carshare modes in rural China.     

Spatial and socio-economic analysis of public transport systems in large cities: A case study for Belo Horizonte,Brazil

The main goal of this article is to evaluate the relationship between the spatial distribution of the population of the city of Belo Horizonte, one of the largest cities in South America, and its public transport network, seeking to ascertain whether the current bus network is able to meet the needs of the population. The methodology was based on data processing and vector information from different sources through spatial analysis tools. As expected, the results revealed a greater concentration of routes and bus stops in the central region of Belo Horizonte, which is the main commercial center of the municipality and its metropolitan region. However, the results suggest evidences of a disadvantage for the population with lower income, especially those living on the periphery. A possible explanation for this disadvantage is the invisibility of these communities due to their high level of irregular occupation. Under the eyes of public transport planning, they are not recognized, and, theoretically, do not generate demand for lines and bus stops     

The impact of car ownership and public transport usage on cancer screening coverage: Empirical evidence using a spatial analysis in England

A spatial analysis has been conducted in England, with the aim to examine the impact of car ownership and public transport usage on breast and cervical cancer screening coverage. District-level cancer screening coverage data (in proportions) and UK census data have been collected and linked. Their effects on cancer screening coverage were modelled by using both non-spatial and spatial models to control for spatial correlation.Significant spatial correlation has been observed and thus spatial model is preferred. It is found that increased car ownership is significantly associated with improved breast and cervical cancer screening coverage. Public transport usage is inversely associated with breast cancer screening coverage; but positively associated with cervical cancer screening. An area with higher median age is associated with higher screening coverage. The effects of other socio-economic factors such as deprivation and economic activity have also been explored with expected results. Some regional differences have been observed, possibly due to unobserved factors.Relevant transport and public health policies are thus required for improved coverage. While restricting access to cars may lead to various benefits in public health, it may also result in worse cancer screening uptake. It is thus recommended that careful consideration should be taken before implementing policy interventions.     

Investigating household vehicle ownership,mode choice and trip sharing decisions using a combined revealed preference/stated preference Nested Logit model: case study in Bangkok Metropolitan Region

This study proposes a Nested Logit model to investigate household travel behaviour in respect to vehicle ownership, mode choice and trip sharing decisions. The model is analysed using revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data since a combined estimation of RP/SP data is an effective method of expressing complex travel behaviour and forecasting travel demand for new transport services. In the proposed model, the nesting structure has two levels. The upper level shows car ownership, motorcycle ownership, and no vehicle-ownership choices, and the lower level shows the mode choice combinations for two-traveller households. Trip sharing is considered as one of the mode-choice options in the model. The proposed model is analysed using data from the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. The analysis conducted informs that Central Business District (CBD) travel, long distance travel, household income, job status, age of travellers and presence of school children in households are key aspects in household travel decisions. Based on these aspects, households make important decisions on vehicle ownership, mode choice and trip sharing. In addition, this study reveals commuters’ hidden preferences for modes that are not in existence, in particular the Mass Rapid Transit System in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region due to be fully implemented in 2010.     

Thinking regional and acting local: Assessing the joint influence of local and regional accessibility on commute mode in Montreal,Canada

Accessibility indicators, measuring the ease of reaching destinations via a specific mode of transport, are increasingly used in planning and research as they support integrated land use and transport planning. Research has shown that increased local accessibility (walkability for example) is associated with an increase in walking mode share, whereas increase in public transport accessibility is associated with a greater use of public transport. Yet, while public transport agencies are promoting the combination of active and public transport options to address one's diverse mobility needs, local and regional accessibility are rarely addressed together in research or practice. This research aims to determine the joint influence of local and regional accessibility on the transport mode used for work trips in the Montreal metropolitan region, while controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Data come from the 2013 Origin-Destination survey 2016 Canadian census, 2017 public transport data DMTI Enhanced points of interests. A multinomial logistic model is used to understand how local and regional accessibility are associated with walking, cycling or taking public transport to work across individuals. The results demonstrate that increases in both local and regional accessibility are associated with a higher probability of using sustainable modes. The predicted probabilities suggest that local accessibility is more closely associated with a decrease in car use. This study sheds light on the interaction between local and regional land use and transport systems and is of relevance to planners and policymakers wishing to develop neighborhoods that support the use of sustainable modes.     

Impact of transport pricing on quality of life, acceptability, and intentions to reduce car use: An exploratory study in five European countries

This paper examines how a transport pricing policy aimed to reduce car use may affect individuals’ Quality of Life (QoL), to what extent this policy is acceptable to the public and if people intend to change car use when the policy is implemented. Also, comparisons were made amongst five countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Italy, The Netherlands and Sweden). An internet survey among 490 respondents showed that a stringent measure, i.e., doubling costs of car use, hardly affects people’s general QoL. Respondents are unsure whether they would accept the policy and whether they intend to change their car use if the policy is implemented. Respondents from The Netherlands and Sweden are more pessimistic about the QoL consequences of the policy, think the policy is less acceptable and are less inclined to reduce car use than respondents from the Czech Republic, Italy and, to a lesser degree, Austria. Implications and recommendations for developing, adjusting or supplementing QoL measurement instruments and policies are discussed to ensure effective and efficient policy making.     

Analysis of travel mode choice and trip chain pattern relationships based on multi-day GPS data: A case study in Shanghai,China

As the propensity to link multiple intermediate stops in a trip chain (a sequence of journeys that starts and ends at home, includes visiting one or more locations) is more prevalent, the relationship between travel mode choice and trip chain pattern aroused the attention of academics. This paper examines two distinct structures to identify the decision process of travelers between travel mode choice and trip chain pattern: one structure in which trip chain pattern organization precedes travel mode choice, another structure in which travel mode choice decision precedes the organization of trip chain pattern. To accommodate multi-day behavioral variability and unobserved heterogeneity in personal characteristics ignored by traditional travel surveys, multi-day GPS data collected in Shanghai is employed to estimate these two structures within Nested Logit (NL) model. The Monte Carlo (MC) method simulates the switch of trip-chaining and mode choice under possible Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies based on estimation results. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) trip chain pattern decision precedes travel mode choice, which means trip-chaining is organized first and affects travel mode choice; (2) complex trip chain is related to higher automobile dependency, and it is a barrier to the tendency to adopt public transit; (3) people who generally travel by automobiles might switch to public transit when private cars are unavailable, and an increase in household bicycle ownership enhances competition between the bicycle and public transit which leads people to turn to cycling. These findings help implement TDM strategies to develop sustainable transportation systems and optimize the urban trip structure.