中外经济学家对中国经济增长率的评论

随着中国经济的持续快速发展,反映中国经济发展的官方统计数据引起了国内外经济学家的广泛关注.本文探讨了美国经济学家罗斯基教授撰写的论文"中国GDP统计发生了什么"的基本观点、基本依据及其存在的一些问题;介绍了中国经济学家任若恩教授对罗斯基的观点和依据所进行的批评;阐述了美国经济学家克莱茵、拉迪、诺敦对中国经济增长率的评论.     

中国经济是否过热--关于当前宏观经济形势及政策的讨论述评

去年以来,经济理论界对我国经济是否过热的问题展开了热烈争论,这种争论关系到对今年宏观经济形势的判断和宏观政策的取向.本文对其中的主要观点和政策主张进行了简要的梳理和评述.     

从比较优势走向竞争优势：中国对外贸易战略转变的依据和路径

古典经济学家提出并经完善的比较优势原理是中国参与国际分工和交换的基本依据。改革开放以来的中国对外贸易的实践证明,中国就是依据比较优势原理选择了具有比较优势的产业参与国际分工和交换。然而,竞争优势更能体现一个产业在国际市场上的竞争力,比较优势只是形成竞争优势的基础,竞争优势理论在当今国际贸易中具有更现实的指导意义。中固要在比较优势基础上提升产业的竞争力,将比较优势转变为竞争优势。     

Bi-Week Watch

CPI：4.9%↑ China＇s consumer price index （CPI）, a measure of inflation, was up 4.9 percent in August, the National Bureau of Statistics an- nounced on September 10.     

论就业机会产品失灵问题的政府治理

中国劳动力市场的典型特征是就业机会与劳动力资源之间的信息分布不对称,而就业机会实质上是一种公共产品。根据市场失灵理论,解决公共品市场失灵问题时政府与市场两条思路均可采用。文章沿袭自古典经济学家庇古以来的传统,认为应该引入政府的干预来解决就业机会的市场失灵问题,并在此基础上提出相应的建议。     

China-Taking the Temperature

Is China＇s economy really overheating？ Many of the year-on-year （y/y） numbers now look worrying. Electricity production in December 2009 rose 27% y/y, for instance; Q4 GDP rose by 10.7% y/y, above the 8-10% range which most economists agree is .trend growth. The problem with looking at year-on-year numbers, though, is that be-cause of the problems the economy experienced a year ago, the base effects are huge.     

China in Overcapacity Exacerbating？

The problem of overcapacity has been plaguing China for years. Many economists claim that China＇s double-edged economic system of foreign trade and investment has resulted in a lack of consumption. It is estimated that approximately 35% of GDP depends solely on exports, some of which has naturally turned into excessive capacity due to the recent lack of external demand from western markets. Repeated build up in certain industries, which the government has failed to restrain, has resulted in prevailing overcapacity, and has also indirectly triggered the flood of anti-dumping cases against Chinese enterprises in recent years.     

自然禀赋对欠发达地区经济增长的影响研究——来自安徽的例证

自然资源与经济增长的关系一直是经济学家关注的焦点。通过扩展已有文献对自然资源的定义,即从自然资源、旅游资源和地理区位三个方面来表征自然禀赋,以安徽省2000—2010年市级面板数据为样本,考察自然禀赋对欠发达地区经济增长的影响。结果表明:自然资源和地理区位对安徽城市经济增长具有正向影响,旅游资源对安徽城市经济增长的影响不显著,"资源诅咒"假说在安徽省市级层面不成立;对于安徽这样的欠发达地区而言,地方经济发展对自然禀赋具有较高的依赖性。     

Fixed Point Theorems for Discontinuous Maps on a Non‐convex Domain

This paper introduces economists to some fixed point theorems for discontinuous mappings with non‐convex images on a non‐convex domain. These theorems have recently been developed based on a new approach by mathematical economists and mathematicians. The new method of proof is first transformed into a sort of metatheorem, which is then used to obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for a map to have a fixed point. Some fixed point theorems for discontinuous maps are then explained in more concrete cases. The formulations are intended for easier applications towards economic models involving discontinuity as well as non‐convexity.     

The relative impact of economics journals: A cross-country survey and comparison

This study provides a ranking journals according to their quality and impact as perceived by academic economists stratified by countries (U.S.A., U.K., France, Québec and languages (English, French).Although the results tend to agree with the most recent findings, they also indicate differences between economists of different countries and of different languages.     

The Role of Advertising in the Market Process: A Survey

The positive role played by advertising in the market process has been largely ignored by academic economists. It is only recently, since the modern economic revolution, that economists have realized the benefits of advertising and have joined the research agenda developed by researchers in marketing and other business fields. The present survey details the literature that examines the role played by advertising in lowering the ‘full price’ to consumers which allows consumers to maximize utility and allows the producers/retailers to maximize profits. The review begins with the seminal article by Stigler in 1960 which develops a (now famous) theory of the economics of information. Nelson's characteristics of goods and services are surveyed along with the extensions of other economists to the classification frameworks of Nelson and Porter. The survey follows the development of the theory of advertising in economics to the present day, and provides recent theoretical advances as well as empirical tests of these seminal theories.     

Expertenwissen im politischen Prozess — Nutzen,Grenzen und Gefahren

Since the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis, confidence in politicians as well as the economists in their advisory expert panels seems to be at an all-time low. Why do politicians reject science-based advice unless it fits into their political agenda? Are economists misunderstood by politicians and vice versa? The tension between the ideal of evidence-based policy-making and the reality of policy-based evidence-making is hardly a new phenomenon. Therefore, the expectation that Donald Trump, the Brexiteers and European populists will necessarily disappoint their voters because they simply cannot deliver what they have promised is misleading. Experts would be well advised to use the debate on the post-factual era as an impetus to reflect critically on their profession. One opinion expressed in this Zeitgespräch is that the contested societal and political impact of modern economics is due to its restricted scientific self-concept. A more open, pluralistic and transdisciplinary self-definition of economics would strengthen its societal influence. Another contributor ponders the proper incentives to persuade academic economists to provide economic policy advice. Key is the independence of advisory institutions like the German Council of Economic Experts. The selection of people with the best scientific qualifications will ensure the reputation of such institutions.     

Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession

It is generally believed that the recession of 2007–09 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book. We conclude that both sets of data are similar and that business economists are responsive to information about the economy and adjust their predictions quickly.     

股市有免费午餐吗——一个基于随机过程的理论分析

关于股市是否存在免费午餐,理论存在着截然不同的观点。一些经济学家依据有效市场假说,认为天下没有免费的午餐。然而,近年来人们逐渐认识到,在有关金融市场的理论模型中,某些形式巧妙的免费午餐是可以得到的。这一结果与基本的经济学原理相冲突,一些经济学家对解释这一有趣的问题做出了努力。本文从股票回报率随机波动的假设出发,利用伊滕定理,在关于投资组合回报率大于政府债券回报率的概率计算基础上,推导出股市存在免费午餐的条件,并对每一因素进行了分析和概率计算。在此基础上,对投资者提出了理性投资建议。     

Structural adjustment programmes and human well‐being

This paper provides a primer on structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) anticipating that a deeper understanding of these policies enables home economists to influence the global trend for SAPs that is profoundly impacting human well‐being. It addresses the issue of what SAPs are (their intended and actual impact on family well‐being), provides five reasons why home economists should care about SAPs and tenders seven ideas for what we can do, as professionals, to mitigate the negative impact of SAPs on familial well‐being and human security.     

HOME ECONOMICS—THE FUTURE*

The future development of the subject matter of home economics, and of the professional activities of home economists, are considered in relation to current developments in the educational system, to discernible trends in lifestyles and to long-term changes in the structure of society. The effects on the subject of the move of the home economics colleges into the universities and polytechnics, the nature of the careers followed by home economists, and of international contacts are also examined.     

HOME ECONOMISTS—THE MISSING LINK WITH CONSUMERS?

The apparent lack of awareness of the potential contribution of graduate home economists to consumer welfare is discussed and exemplified. The concept of a consumer policy based on co-operation, rather than conflict, and the role of home economists within this is proposed.     

Business economics in a post-truth era

Business economists face increasing challenges at this political and policymaking juncture. “Experts” and economists are out of favor with the public and with certain policymakers. In response, business economists should be frank about our failures and the limits of our models. We can then be ready to defend truth against falsehood. In our defense of fact-based decision making, we must first assert that data matter, and the unbiased integrity of that data matters. We must support and defend the work of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Census Bureau. Business economists must be story tellers, transmitting historical memory of past crises, of past attacks on our profession and data sources (such President Nixon’s targeting of the Bureau of Labor Statistics).     

Explaining ethnic entrepreneurship: An evolutionary economics approach

The cultural approaches and the economic approaches advocated by mainstream neoclassical economists and new institutional economists fail to provide an adequate explanation of the differences between ethnic groups in the rate of business formation. These approaches provide only a partial explanation, much of which is based on static, predetermined exogenous and/or endogenous factors. By comparison the old institutional economists’ framework, when applied to this area, offers a more holistic explanation of differential ethnic business formation by bringing together a range of cultural and economic factors that emphasize the path dependency of activities and the dynamic evolution of behaviour and actions.     

International Visibility of Balkan Economists in the Post-Socialist Era

During the socialist era, economists in the Balkan countries rarely published their work in the West due to political restrictions, methodological differences with the West, and inadequacy in Western languages. After the collapse of socialism, political barriers were lifted, a Western style of education in economics was adopted, and English began to be taught widely as the common language in the academic realm. The aim of this study is to discuss the impact of these policies on the publication performance of economists in the former socialist countries of the Balkans region. The results reveal that the number of international publications increased gradually over the post-socialist period and fast-reforming countries performed better than the slow movers.