创新系统视角下创新政策效应研究* ——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

本文遵循维佐利克和哈克特（Wieczorek and Hekkert）的研究思路,构建了创新政策的作用路径模型,并在创新政策体系框架下,利用超效率DEA模型和面板数据模型,研究了创新政策对创新系统绩效的影响。研究结论表明,“政府财政科技拨款”、“政府采购政策”、“知识产权保护政策”与我国创新系统绩效呈显著的正相关关系;“研发税收优惠政策”、“金融支持政策”、“基础设施政策”与我国创新系统绩效无显著的相关关系;“教育投入政策”、“开放政策”与我国创新系统绩效之间有显著的负相关关系。据此本文提出相应的政策建议。     

路径依赖、市场进入与资源型城市转型*

资源型城市因资源而兴,但也面临转型“困境”。本文试图以经验数据证明资源型城市存在路径依赖,并分析路径依赖效应阻碍资源型经济转型的作用机理。本文研究表明,路径依赖效应通过技术与制度“双重锁定”,在经济快速增长的掩饰下“侵蚀”资源型城市产业结构升级的内生动力;在资源枯竭时期,路径依赖效应会导致城市丧失快速发展资源替代性产业的能力,严重的结构性失业、生态环境破坏以及基础设施落后使城市陷入转型“困境”,单纯市场调节很难实现资源型城市产业结构的自我修复,政府管理在产业布局中的作用显得更加重要;突破路径依赖的关键在于新企业的“市场进入”与地区人力资本水平的提升,有利于打破路径依赖锁定,推动资源禀赋优势向其他要素禀赋优势转化,使资源型城市突破路径锁定,实现转型。     

大学生"新失业"群体现状反思

以大学生为主的"新失业"群体正日益构成中国未来失业人口的主体部分,劳动力市场上的"新失业群体"就业问题正逐步成为主要矛盾.本文分析了新失业群体的现状、特点以及面临的各种心理问题和主要矛盾,以期为"新失业"群体对策研究提供依据.     

房价上涨与中国城市“新二元结构”的加剧

中国城市中以外来流动人口与本地居民收入差距扩大为特征的“新二元结构”正在制造新的不平等。本文理论分析发现：房价上涨导致城市本地居民收入提高、外来流动人口收入下降。本文将2014—2015年全国流动人口动态监测数据匹配到251个城市，实证检验表明房价上涨显著加剧了城市“新二元结构”，该结论在不同子样本与稳健性检验中都成立；作用机制检验表明房价通过引起城市本地居民收入提高与外来流动人口收入下降加剧了城市“新二元结构”。     

居民休闲消费不平等研究——以北京市为例

休闲消费蕴含休闲时间消费和休闲消费支出。本文以北京市为例，探讨居民休闲消费不平等问题。研究发现，休闲时间消费和休闲消费支出不平等现象日趋显著。本文通过K means均值聚类刻画了休闲时间消费差异。构建回归模型发现，休闲时间和收入是影响休闲消费支出的主要因素，随着年份的推移，休闲时间逐渐成为影响“有钱无闲”群体休闲消费支出的主要因素，收入的拉动作用逐渐弱化。对于“有闲无钱”群体，虽然增加该群体收入能有效提高其休闲消费水平，但收入与年份交叉项并不显著。     

银行与企业的关系:共生抑或掠夺

本文使用大样本的微观企业数据,通过实证分析来判别中国转型背景下,现阶段以大银行体系为主的金融体制与实体经济形成的是“共生”还是“掠夺”关系。结果发现:民营企业中贷款成本支出对企业利润和资产增长造成了显著的“挤压”和“抑制”效应;相反,国有企业中却表现出“共生”效应,而其他类型企业中这些效应皆不存在。这些结果验证了银行体系对民营企业造成了“掠夺”之手的效应。     

高送转与股价崩盘风险:抑制还是加重

本文以我国2003—2015年A股公司为样本,考察了公司“高送转”与股价崩盘风险之间的关系。研究发现,公司“高送转”能够有效抑制股价崩盘风险,相对于创业板,主板公司“高送转”抑制股价崩盘风险的作用更为显著。而且,“高送转”对于股价崩盘风险的抑制作用并不受公司财务状况和减持情况的影响,该抑制作用的期限超过了我国投资者平均持股时间。本文有助于加深人们对于“高送转”经济后果的认识。     

城镇新失业群体就业过程中的制度困境与重建

本文认为,城镇青年群体失业作为一种社会现象的出现与各种社会因素相关,社会制度是一个不容忽视的因素。本文基于制度分析的视角,从二元劳动力市场、劳动力市场的行政分割、行业壁垒、路径依赖等角度对影响城镇新失业群体就业的制度困境进行了论述,并从调整产业结构、完善就业体制、改变家长和失业青年的观念、转变政府职能四个方面对制度的重建进行了思考。     

“中国制造”对美国就业的拉动作用 ——中国制造业出口中“美国含量”的经验分析

本文旨在考察中国制成品出口对美国就业正向拉动作用的具体途径。使用OECD STAN按行业和终端用途分类的双边贸易数据库，本文计算了中国对美国制造品出口中来源于美国的中间产品成分，发现中国制成品中的“美国含量”随制成品技术含量的增加而增加，且随时间呈递减趋势。2006-2010年，全部制造业出口中“美国含量”平均为1%左右，其中高端制造业的“美国含量”平均为16%。在此基础上，利用美国就业需求矩阵中的就业-产出比率，笔者计算出同期中国出口制成品从美国进口的中间产品为美国创造了171万多个就业岗位。由此可见，中美两国贸易的发展对促进美国的就业具有正面积极的影响。     

地方政府性债务治理与上市企业投融资*——基于我国247座城市的初步证据

本文利用中国社科院披露的我国247座城市地方政府性债务对金融稳定影响的评价指数,分析了地方政府性债务治理对上市企业债务融资与资本性投资效率的影响及其传导机理。研究发现,与地方政府性债务治理较好地区相比,处于地方政府性债务治理较差地区的地方政府控股国企,其杠杆率均显著较高,但企业资本性投资效率却显著较低,企业产能过剩的财务特征十分明显。这表明,地方政府性债务治理会显著影响微观企业的投融资,并且地方政府性债务治理越差,透过政府对经济活动的控制或干预,通过预算外举债,政府“杠杆”有转化为企业“杠杆”的风险。本文明确了“去杠杆”究竟应去谁的“杠杆”问题,对理解地方政府性债务治理转变为“内涵型”经济增长的微观基础具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Does Inflation Grease the Wheels of Adjustment? New evidence from the US economy

This paper presents a new interpretation of the Phillips curve that rests on the process of nominal wage adjustment in a multi-sector economy. Nominal demand growth causes inflation in sectors with full employment, but it speeds up the process of employment creation in sectors with unemployment. As a result, demand-pull inflation is associated with both a reduction in the duration of unemployment and the economy wide average rate of unemployment. The paper provides empirical evidence from the US economy consistent with this claim.     

IMMIGRATION UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: THE EVIDENCE FROM CANADA*

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and immigration in Canada. The bi‐directional causality test finds no evidence of a significant effect of Canadian immigration on unemployment. Cointegration tests indicate that there is no observed increase in aggregate unemployment due to immigration in the long run. The results from the causality test based on the vector error correction model confirm that, in the short run, past unemployment does cause (less) immigration but not vice versa. There is also a long‐run positive relationship among per‐capita GDP, immigration rate and real wages. The results indicate that, in the short‐run, more immigration is possibly associated with attractive Canadian immigration policies, and in the long‐run, as the labour market adjusts, Canadian‐born workers are likely to benefit from increased migration.     

湖南产业结构变动与就业增长的相关性分析

湖南地处我国中部,人口众多,就业压力大,如何有效地促进就业是亟待解决的问题之一。本文利用产业结构偏离度对湖南三次产业结构与就业增长之间的关系进行了分析,得出在1978年-2007年,每年有大量的劳动力从第一产业向第二和第三产业转移;通过引入向量误差修正模型（VEC）分析得出,第二产业吸纳劳动力资源的能力有限,第三产业是解决就业压力的主力军;最后通过就业弹性分析了产业内部结构变动对就业的贡献。     

A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application

MONASH is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. This article describes a new labour-market specification for MONASH in which people are allocated in year t to categories according to their labourmarket activities in year t – 1. People in each category plan their labour supplies by solving an optimisation problem. Via these problems, we introduce the assumption that people in employment categories supply labour more strongly to employment activities than do people in unemployment categories. Thus we find that employment-stimulating policies in t – 1 increase labour supply in t by shifting the composition of the labour force in t in favour of employment categories and away from unemployment categories. We illustrate this idea by using MONASH to simulate the Dawkins proposal to combine a freeze on award wage rates with tax credits for low-wage workers in low-income families. We find that the Dawkins policy would generate a significant short-run increase in employment. With the increase in employment generating an increase in labour supply, the employment benefits of the policy would persist over many years. However, in the long run, we would expect the effect of the policy on aggregate employment to be small and to depend on how the policy affected the ratio of real after-tax wage rates to unemployment benefits.     

A coalitional theory of unemployment insurance and employment protection

This paper examines the role of coalition formation in the empirically observed negative correlation between employment protection and unemployment benefit. We study an economy composed of four groups of agents (capitalists, unemployed people, low- and high-skilled workers), each one represented by a politician. Politicians first form political parties and then compete in a winner-takes-all election by simultaneously proposing policy bundles composed of an employment protection level and an unemployment benefit. We first show that, in the absence of parties (i.e., in a citizen-candidate model), low-skilled workers are decisive and support a maximum employment protection level together with some unemployment benefit. We then obtain that, under some conditions, allowing for party formation results in all policy equilibria belonging to the Pareto set of the coalition formed by high-skilled workers together with unemployed people. Policies in this Pareto set exhibit a negative correlation between employment protection and unemployment benefit.     

技术创新、劳动力就业与产业模式选择:假说、框架和检验

从技术和劳动力的替代关系假说出发,探讨中国产业发展过程中技术创新、劳动力就业和产业模式之间的内在联系。研究发现:随着劳动效率的提升,三次产业内部确实存在技术替代劳动力的情况;但从整体和长期来看,技术创新虽然推动了产业结构调整和经济增长,但对劳动力就业总量的影响不显著;只有当大规模技术变革引起产业发生结构性变动时,技术替代劳动力所带来的失业现象才会出现。得出结论:就业在相当大的程度上表现为宏观经济增长的结果,与技术创新的关系并不明朗。     

Wage bargaining, labor-tax progression, and welfare

This paper analyzes the effect of labor-tax progression on employment and welfare in an economy with a unionized labor market. The government influences wage bargaining through its tax policies. Wages can be reduced by increasing the marginal labor-tax rate. If there are no restrictions on profit taxation, a first-best optimum with full employment is realized; this first-best optimum can always be implemented by a progressive tax schedule. If profit taxation is restricted, unemployment may arise. For this case, we show that the welfare-maximizing degree of tax progression is influenced by a variety of factors, in particular the wage elasticity of labor demand, the distribution of bargaining power, and the existence of unemployment benefits. Examples are given for both progressive and regressive tax structures. Comparative-static analysis reveals that a decline in union bargaining power, an increase in unemployment benefits, and an increase in the overall work force reduce the efficient degree of tax progression.     

Excess supply equilibria

This paper addresses a fundamental problem in economic theory: How can there be equilibria of the economic system where some commodity is in excess supply, yet that commodity's relative price shows no tendency to fall? Of course, the principal example of such a phenomenon is an economy experiencing a prolonged period of involuntary unemployment of the labor force during which there is no significant change in the real wage.In the following pages, I shall describe a two-commodity, general equilibrium model that has a continuum of unemployment equilibria, one for any given unemployment rate. The important feature of this model is that workers establish their wage rates in an attempt to maximize expected utility. The information upon which these wage setting decisions are based is provided by actual labor market transactions.Despite the voluntary nature of the wage setting decision, I shall argue that each equilibrium of this economy exhibits involuntary unemployment in the Keynesian sense. For there will always be another equilibrium with a lower real wage, a higher level of employment, and at which (at least when workers are risk neutral) each worker achieves a higher level of expected utility.     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION AND THE NON‐LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE WAGE‐PRODUCTIVITY GAP AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper studies the relationship between the wage‐productivity gap and the unemployment rate in OECD countries between 1985 and 2007. In particular, we investigate whether differences in the employment protection across countries affect the link between these two variables. We show that the elasticity of unemployment with respect to the wage‐productivity gap is non‐linear and that it switches from a positive to a negative value with stricter employment legislation. From a theoretical point of view, we argue that this result is related to a set of labor market reforms introduced in many OECD countries, which affected the relative strictness of institutions.     

Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model

This paper presents a disequilibrium macrodynamic model that incorporates certain elements from Goodwin (the dynamics of the rate of employment and income distribution), Kalecki (an investment function independent of savings, and mark-up pricing in oligopolistic goods markets), and Marx (the reserve-army and reserve-army-creation effects). The model has a system of differential equations for the rate of utilization, profit share, and rate of employment. We show that there exist limit cycles that depend on the sizes of the reserve-army effect and reserve-army-creation effect. This implies that there exists a situation in which the economy experiences endogenous and perpetual growth cycles. Moreover, we show that if the stable long-run equilibrium corresponds to the profit-led growth regime, an increase in the bargaining power of workers increases the rate of unemployment; conversely, if the equilibrium corresponds to the wage-led growth-regime, an increase in the bargaining power of workers decreases the rate of unemployment.