非洲区域经济一体化的贸易效应——基于SADC和ECOWAS的比较研究

文章基于拓展贸易引力模型对非洲两大重要区域经济共同体(南部非洲发展共同体(SADC)与西部非洲经济共同体(ECOWAS))经济一体化的贸易效应进行了评估和对比分析。区别于传统的贸易创造和贸易转移效应,文章将经济一体化的贸易效应分为贸易创造效应、出口转移效应和进口转移效应,并考察了两个共同体成员国的重叠身份可能对其产生的影响。研究显示:一方面,SADC和ECOWAS经济一体化均促进了区域内贸易的增加,并且产生了贸易创造和贸易转移效应;另一方面,SADC和ECOWAS的总贸易效应均高于模型预期,说明两者的经济一体化通过贸易显著地促进了成员国的福利,但是前者的值小于后者。     

非洲区域经济一体化的贸易效应——基于SADC和ECOWAS的比较研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章基于拓展贸易引力模型对非洲两大重要区域经济共同体(南部非洲发展共同体(SADC)与西部非洲经济共同体(ECOWAS))经济一体化的贸易效应进行了评估和对比分析。区别于传统的贸易创造和贸易转移效应,文章将经济一体化的贸易效应分为贸易创造效应、出口转移效应和进口转移效应,并考察了两个共同体成员国的重叠身份可能对其产生的影响。研究显示:一方面,SADC和ECOWAS经济一体化均促进了区域内贸易的增加,并且产生了贸易创造和贸易转移效应;另一方面,SADC和ECOWAS的总贸易效应均高于模型预期,说明两者的经济一体化通过贸易显著地促进了成员国的福利,但是前者的值小于后者。     

东亚经济一体化预期效应分析

中国、日本、韩国和东盟都是世界上重要的经济体，如果东亚经济一体化能够实现，无论对于东亚国家还是对于世界上其他国家而言都将产生重大影响。对东亚经济一体化预期效应可以从贸易转移与贸易创造效应、生产转移与投资转移效应、福利效应等方面加以加以分析。     

韩国加入中日韩东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应实证分析——以1981～2007年为例

区域经济一体化的贸易效应一直得到了学术界的广泛关注,如何突破传统的研究方法探讨贸易效应的新内涵是该领域的发展方向。本文通过对中日韩自由贸易区相关国家的经济指标时间序列(1980～2007)进行了回归分析,找到了既定条件下韩国经济贸易的相关影响要素,为结盟成员国参与区域经济合作的实践提供了经济动向分析。     

中欧垂直专业化分工结构与就业效应研究

文章基于WIOD世界投入产出表和社会经济账户数据(SEA),采用WWZ方法测算了2000～2014年中欧双边制造业与服务业垂直专业化水平与结构,并对中欧垂直专业化分工的就业效应进行实证检验。研究发现:从制造业来看,中国通过与欧盟的贸易往来,提升了其在全球价值链中的作用及地位。不过目前中国制造业GVC地位依旧落后于欧盟,但是差距在缩小。从服务业来看,中欧中间服务融合程度较高。中国进口中间服务的目的更多为下一个阶段出口,服务贸易出口结构与全球价值链地位得到一定的优化升级,而欧盟服务进口更多为自身消费,进一步再出口的比例在下降。总体来看,中欧垂直专业化分工提升了中国制造业就业水平,但对服务业就业有负向作用;对不同技能水平的劳动力就业和不同细分行业就业影响存在明显异质性。     

试论欧盟对国际贸易模式的影响

欧盟作为区域经济一体化最为成功的实践,已经在世界经济贸易舞台上起着举足轻重的作用,对国际贸易模式产生了深远的影响,作者在本文中分析了欧盟在国际贸易方面的特点,认为其对外贸易额增长较快,且成员国之间的贸易迅速增长,内部贸易比重扩大,贸易结构和对象也有较大变化,基于这种分析,作者从欧盟内部、外部两个视角论述了欧盟对国际贸易模式的影响。     

基于引力模型的CAFTA边界效应分析

中国东盟自由贸易区的建立促进了成员国间的贸易,但国家边界依然阻碍成员国问的贸易和成员国与区外国家的贸易.文章基于引力模型构建边界效应模型,重点讨论边界究竟以何种程度影响区内外贸易,并得出相应结论.     

上合组织自贸区经济效应的前瞻性研究--基于GTAP模型的模拟

文章在分析中国同上海合作组织成员国贸易现状的基础上,运用GTAP模型实证研究了建立上合组织自贸区可能带来的经济影响。研究发现建立自贸区虽然在短期内可能存在一定的困难和冲突,但是符合各成员国的长远利益。具体结论如下:从短期来看,大部分成员国贸易放大效应较为明显;各成员国会扩大对比较优势产品的出口,增加对比较劣势产品的进口;各成员国贸易条件和福利水平变化不一,一些小国和落后国家贸易条件恶化,福利水平下降。从长期来看,自贸区的建立能有效拉动各成员国经济增长;随着区域内分工纵深发展,各国产业结构均出现调整。总体来说,完全自由贸易情形下的经济效应要大于设置关税减让例外情形。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区贸易结构效应的实证分析——基于1995～2008年HS92商品分类面板数据

本文运用内生化处理方法及倍差法分行业对中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易结构效应进行了实证分析.结果表明,东亚各国倾向于同那些要素禀赋类似且支出结构互补的国家组建自贸区协定,并且,自贸区协定的签订促进了成员国产业间贸易的发展.这些结果预示着东亚区域经济一体化组织的成立对成员国经济有很好的促进作用,但同时一体化组织的深入发展将面...     

中国东盟自由贸易区:贸易趋势与效应分析

中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立,不仅是中国与东盟双方加强经济合作的必然要求,也是顺应区域经济合作和一体化发展的必然结果。近年来,中国与东盟国家之间的国际贸易呈持续稳定增长趋势;从贸易结构来看,呈现出竞争性与互补性并存的特征。而从贸易效应分析来看,贸易创造效应总体大于贸易转移效应,中国与东盟之间开展国际贸易,有利于增加双方的经济福利,也有利于人民币走向区域化、国际化。     

环境规制对贸易的影响——以中国与欧盟商品贸易为例

环境规制对贸易的影响不仅是理论界的重要议题,也是各国经贸关系中必须正视的现实问题。基于中欧环境规制的差异及近年来中欧商品贸易持续顺差的现状,本文对环境规制产生的贸易影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,中欧环境规制指数与进出口指数存在比较稳定的相关性。欧盟环境规制的相对严格化使得中国污染密集型行业生产的产品在中欧贸易顺差中扮演了重要角色,从而使我国承担了更多的环境成本。     

欧盟技术性贸易壁垒对中国农产品出口影响研究

欧盟是我国农产品第二大出口市场,但欧盟利用自身发达的科技水平和严密的技术性贸易壁垒体系,使中国农产品出口屡遭其技术性贸易壁垒的限制。本文立足欧盟技术性贸易壁垒和中欧农产品贸易的现状,分析欧盟技术性贸易壁垒对中国农产品出口的影响,并提出我国政府、企业和行业协会应共同努力,以突破欧盟技术性贸易壁垒。     

The impact of ECOWAS on intraregional trade flows: An empirical investigation

There is a scarcity of published statistical analysis that examines the impact of economic integration schemes in Africa. This study fills the gap in the literature. The impact of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on trade flows of its member countries is examined applying an econometric analysis. The parameters of a multivariate trade-flows model are estimated using a panel data of the 1975 to 1991 period. The results suggest that the regional integration scheme has succeeded in increasing trade flows between member countries. The general view in the literature is that African integration schemes have failed to increase trade flows.     

Bilateral Trade Performance in West Africa: A Gravity Model Estimation

This study provides empirical insights on the functioning of regional trade agreements within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by identifying bilateral trade barriers that affect the extent of trade flows among member countries. Also, it highlights some trade barrier indicators that are rarely covered in extant studies, such as the multilateral resistance term, the extent of trade complementarity, and the presence of economic integration agreements among ECOWAS member countries. We then provide augmented gravity model estimation on the determinants of bilateral trade in the region. We find, among other things, that trade complementarity had a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade within the sub‐region region. Other important determinants of intra‐regional trade include multilateral trade resistance and economic integration agreements — meaning that countries with some kind of agreement like the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) tend to trade more among themselves than other member countries.     

Trade integration in the Southern African development community: Prospects and problems 1

The adoption of a trade and development protocol by the member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in August 1996 marks the end of an era of sectoral cooperation and the beginning of a process of trade integration among these countries. This article provides a preliminary analysis of the obstacles and opportunities which trade integration presents for the Southern African region in the context of the institutional and structural factors currently influencing trade patterns both within and outside the region. Critically, the article poses the question whether the provisions of the trade protocol provide an adequate framework for the region's agenda of trade integration and industrial development that is equitable, balanced and mutually beneficial. The analysis demonstrates that it does not, and hence the authors argue that measures that lie beyond the provisions of the trade protocol are a sine qua non for the success of trade integration.     

Trade Diversion Effects of the New EU Arrangements on ASEAN

paper identifies the product groups of the ASEAN exports to Europe that will experience trade diversion effects from the enlargement of the EU (EU 12) with Austria, Finland and Sweden (EFTA 3) and the European association agreements with the Eastern European countries (EACs) using the methodology of Kreinin and Plummer. This methodology establishes for each sufficiently important ASEAN export product group to the EU 12, the EFTA 3 or the EACs whether or not competition is felt from one of the three groups of European countries, after which the tariff and non-tariff preferences towards European products and against the ASEAN exports are analysed.
The share of the exports in ASEAN's external trade with the EU 12, the EFTA 3 and the EACs that is affected by the trade diversion of these recent European integration initiatives, is calculated. It appears that the ASEAN exports to the EU 12 are affected by the accession of the EFTA3 only to a limited extent, but that the trade diversion effect on the EU 12 and the EFTA 3 markets to be expepected from the European association agreements with the EACs is considerable.     

Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States

After compiling an index of economic integration that accounts for global (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration of the EU member states we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a growth accounting framework, using a panel of fifteen EU member states over the period 1950–2000. While the hypothesis of permanent growth effects is rejected, the results—though not completely robust to controlling for time-specific effects—suggest sizeable level effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one-fifth lower today if no integration had taken place since 1950. JEL no. C33, F15, F43, O52     

跨境生产分享与东亚地区一体化:中国的作用

本文考察了跨境生产分享对官方一体化的影响,结论是它促进了单一市场政策的实施,而不利于自由贸易区和关税同盟的建立。此外,市场导向的一体化降低了贸易对汇率变动的敏感度,对各国的汇率政策产生影响。文章还考察了中国在建立包含生产分享的地区一体化中的作用。     

Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective

The ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) is a significant step in regional economic integration for both China and the ASEAN countries. While analysis of the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) most commonly focuses on the trade effects, the closeness of the link between trade and investment implies that the effect of an FTA on foreign direct investment (FDI) is also potentially significant. FTAs may stimulate FDI through the effects of market expansion and vertical fragmentation, while they may also reduce FDI through a plant rationalization effect. The overall effect of an FTA on FDI flows is an empirical question. This paper examines the impact of ACFTA on FDI flows through an econometric model that captures the influence of East Asian production networks on FDI, which we expect to be an important explanatory factor. The model finds that ACFTA has a significant and positive effect on FDI flows. A brief survey of the theoretical literature on the welfare and other related effects of FDI serves to emphasize that the extent to which individual member countries of the ACFTA will benefit from this increase in FDI will depend in important ways on the policies pursued in each country.     

Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU

In this paper, the impact of the adoption of the euro on the commercial transactions of EMU countries is investigated. It seeks to disentangle the effects of eliminating exchange rate volatility — and those of other policy factors that promote integration — from the influence of the emergence of the European currency union. Since EMU is a relatively new phenomenon, a panel estimation of the gravity equation in a dynamic framework is used in order to capture effects like trade persistence. The main finding is that the adoption of the euro has had a positive but not an exorbitant impact on bilateral trade between European countries (ranging between 9 and 10 per cent). The impact is much lower than that shown in the recent literature on a larger and heterogeneous set of countries. One reason for this divergence seems to be that the euro was adopted after decades of integration policies had already worked through in Europe. JEL no. F4, F15, C230