Comparison of alternative models for estimating the cost of equity capital for electric utilities

In this article five models used to estimate the cost of equity capital for electric utilities are systematically compared. We show the impact of model specification, data definitions, and estimation techniques on the estimates. Our search for the “best” model is based on reasonableness of estimates and the Pesaran-Deaton test for non-nested hypotheses. Conclusions emerging from the study are the following: 1) all models explain approximately the same proportion of the variation; 2) recognition of natural nonlinearities in the models does not lead to improvement; 3) no model can consistently reject the other models.     

Personal characteristics of salespeople and the attractiveness of alternative rewards

How do personal characteristics of salespeople affect their desire for the various rewards available to them? Do younger salespeople desire different types and levels of rewards than older salespeople? Are there differences due to job tenure, marital status, family size, and so forth? In this article, the authors attempt to answer these questions. Based on an extensive investigation of the industrial sales forces from two large companies, the authors examine the relationship between personal characteristics and the sales force's valence for various rewards. Although some of the findings are consistent with current sales management practices, some are not, suggesting that present day thinking with respect to the design and administration of rewards may need more careful scrutiny.     

Price-Anderson act declared unconstitutional: The decision and its effects on nuclear power

In March 1977, the $560 million limit on liability in the Price-Anderson Act was declared unconstitutional. The Price-Anderson Act sets forth a combination private-public insurance and compensation system for handling risks associated with commercial nuclear operations. The limit was found to violate the due process and equal protection provisions of the Fifth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. This paper examines the salient points of the decision which include: (a) the effects of nuclear plant operations on the plaintiffs; (b) the dependence of nuclear power development on the Price-Anderson Act; (c) the plaintiff's right to bring suit; and (d) the rationale for declaring the Act unconstitutional. The potential effects include the possibility that many utilities and suppliers of nuclear plant components will terminate their nuclear business, the availability of capital funds for nuclear plants will be reduced, and that cost of capital will be increased to reflect the greater risk of nuclear development.     

The use of incremental goodness of fit indices in structural equation models in marketing research

Indices of the incremental goodness fit of structural equation models can provide useful information beyond that provided by statistical significance tests. Two such indices are described, and their advantages are illustrated with several marketing research studies. Additional discussion focuses on the issue of appropriate null hypotheses against which to test proposed models.     

Scale economies,entry, and welfare

This study shows how scale economies, initial size differences among firms, potential competition, and adjustment costs may influence the entry of firms into a dynamic oligopoly. It also examines the effects of these factors on the final size distribution of firms in an industry, and on the welfare levels of consumers and producers. We find that low to moderate scale economies are insufficient for Cournot-Nash competition to drive small firms from the market. Only when scale economies are quite high will the distribution of firm sizes become degenerate. Potential competition and the size of incumbent firms' capital stocks are additional barriers to entry. The welfare conclusion is that there may be a government role to preserve potential competition, but also to dissuade small firms from entering certain markets where there are economies of scale.     

Adjustment costs and theory of investment under uncertainty

It is shown that the stochastic investment rule for the price-setting monopolist facing random demand differs from the deterministic rule, due to the presence of the covariance of the marginal utility of profits and the MRTS between capital and labor. For the risk-neutral quantity-setting monopolist, the optimal current investment under random demand is shown to be greater than that under deterministic conditions, given that production technology is of the Cobb-Douglas type with constant returns to scale. When random wages and prices follow first-order autoregressive schemes, the risk-neutral competitive firm's current investment level is shown to be at least equal to that under certainty.     

Dividend decisions and the structure of the life insurance industry

The behavior of life insurance company dividend decision-making is modeled for both stock and mutual companies. Insurer payout behavior, regardless of organizational form, follows a “savings” pattern which buffers the dividend stream from short-run variability. Thus total payouts to policyholders and/or stockholders reflect long-term results rather than annual experience. Variables important in explaining annual changes in dividend levels are related to the organizational structure of the insurer. Whereas mutual companies primarily relate the change in payout to volume, stock companies' payout differentials are primarily a function of earnings. The study also examines the relative importance of policy reserves, contingency reserves, and surplus in dividend decisions.     

Price uncertainty and competitive firm behavior: Testable hypotheses from expected utility maximization

This article derives the general implications of expected utility maximization for the static model of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty for any risk preference and probability structure. Implications of the results for the empirical analysis of risk-responsive behavior under uncertainty are discussed.     

The FTC's handling of puffery and other selling claims made “by implication”

The Federal Trade Commission's handling of alleged false advertising representations that are made by implication is examined. Alleged false advertising presentations are held to be implied to the public by the advertiser even though they are not literally stated in his advertisement. The FTC has extended its reach over this kind of misrepresentation in recent years. Cases for 1970–76 are identified, and a catalog is developed of ten types of implications that have been attacked as deceptive during this period. Some, such as the Expansion Implication, are types established as deceptive in earlier years; others, such as the Reasonable Basis Implication, were not attacked prior to the 1970s. Some types, such as the Uniqueness Implication, have been given considerable publicity; others, such as the Inconspicuous Context Implication, are newly categorized in this paper. The consequences of FTC's identification of these types of implications, and of its growing attention to the possibility of misrepresentation by implication, are discussed in detail. A prediction is offered that attention to implications will continue to increase for some time in the future. Puffery is discussed as a category which the FTC might recognize in the future as a type of implied misrepresentation; a rationale is offered for regulating such claims. The role of the researcher is examined, using the assumption that greater attention to misrepresentation that extends beyond a message's literal meaning will produce a greater need for research. The researcher will have attractive opportunities for such work, but will have to confront the problem that playing an advocacy role in legal proceedings may involve significant conflicts with the impartial role that is appropriate for the academic researcher.     

Behavior of default-risk premiums for corporate bonds and commercial paper

The question addressed in this paper is whether default-risk premiums for short-term and for long-term securities behave differently over time. The question is important because it affects decisions by corporations and state and local governments as to the maturity structure of their debt. It also affects decisions by investors as to the maturity and the type and grade of security in which they invest. Several hypotheses have been advanced about the behavior of default-risk premiums for different maturities. The purpose of this paper is to test these hypotheses empirically with a set of data heretofore unused. In so doing, new insights are gained into the behavior of default-risk premiums for different maturities.     

Monetary policy and the daily behavior of interest rates

It is possible that previous research has failed to detect significant variation in the ex-ante real interest rate because the Federal Reserve follows a policy designed to stabilize the real rate. If the Fed is successful, there will be little month-to-month variation in the real rate. Nonetheless, research to date has relied on monthly or quarterly data. This paper presents the results of new tests that use daily data in an attempt to detect short-term variation in the ex-ante real rate. Though the tests reveal that the real rate is not constant, most of the detected variation is related to reserve settlement on Wednesday.     

The optimal policy rule under rational expectations and multiplier uncertainty

This paper shows the role of macro policy under multiplier uncertainty when expectations are rational and the supply structure is affected by price level variance. Policy less is a function of price level variance and possibly of the expected price level. If the letter argument is omitted from the less function, optimal policy simply minimizes the horizontal variance of the aggregate demand curve. If it is not omitted, the level of policy depends on the responsiveness of the supply structure to price level variance, and there may be multiple local policy optima.     

The error learning hypothesis: The evidence reexamined

This paper reexamines the error learning hypothesis, taking explicit account of both the measurement error in forward rates and the nonstationary of liquidity premiums. The evidence is consistent with the model, but with lower explanatory power than the previous results of Meiselman (1962) and Van Horne (1965).     

Entry inclinations under uncertainty

This paper considers the market entry decision of a potential entrant that behaves as if it knew the future market demand and its own cost schedules, and formulates a set of probability judgements as to the unknown output rates that its future rivals will maintain. The special case where entry is free and each in-market seller, as well as the potential entrant, assumes that the others will not alter their production provokes the classic Cournot-Stackelberg situation. Although one might suspect that uncertainty would tend to inhibit entry as compared with an equivalent, in the expected-value sense, certainty situation, this is not at all the case. The suspucion is not necessarily true even when management is risk averse.     

Importance,elicitation order,and expectancy × value

Considerable confusion surrounds the role of importance in multiattribute attitude models. The present study tests a theoretical proposition as to how attribute importance is manifested in the expectancy-value formulation. Though not unequivocal, the results suggest that order of elicitation may be more valid than structured ratings as an indicant of attribute importance.     

The role of incubator organizations in the founding of growth-oriented firms

The role of incubator organizations, those organizations where entrepreneur work before starting their own firms, is examined. Using a sample of 161 new, growth-oriented firms, the relationships of the new companies to their incubator organizations are considered, as well as the characteristics of the incubator organizations. 5The findings have implications for prospective entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs in most industry categories do not change geographic location and, in most technical industries, usually start businesses related to what they did before. An individual's decision to join a particular organization results in a particular geographic location and in knowledge about a particular industry. The would-be founder located in an unpromising geographic area and getting experience in an industry offering few opportunities for company start-ups is unlikely to be able to start a growth-oriented technical firm, regardless of personal motivation. However, the prospective founder of a nontechnical firm appears to be less tied to the experience gained in an incubator organization.There are also implications for regional economic development. Because technically oriented start-ups are tied closely to the business of their incubator organizations and because most entrepreneurs don't move when starting, the possibilities for high-technology start-ups may be very limited in many geographic regions. There have been no studies, to date, on why some founders move when starting. Programs to attract entrepreneurs at the time of start-up may have promise, but, at least to date, there is not much evidence of entrepreneurs being mobile at this stage of their careers.Local and regional programs to attract branch facilities of larger corportions have a long history. The emphasis is usually upon attracting facilities that will offer the maximum number of blue-collar jobs. In contrast to this traditional approach, it might be beneficial to shift the emphasis to those facilities most likely to function as incubators. The greatest benefits might come from laboratories or divisions that would “seed” a region with people learning about promising technologies or industries.The role of universities in this process appears to be less direct than is often assumed. Based upon our sample, it appears that software and biotechnology/medical firms often have spun-off from universities or hospitals. However, in other industry categories, it is business firms that have primarily served as incubators. There are currently many experiments underway to create university-affiliated innovation centers or incubator centers intended to help aspiring entrepreneurs. Whether these will enable universities to function more effectively as incubators, spinning off students and faculty who start growth-oriented firms, remains to be seen.