Firm size and the demand for energy in Dutch manufacturing, 1978–1986

As in most other industrialized countries the oil price shocks in the seventies led to major rearrangements in the production processes in Dutch manufacturing. The substitution of (expensive) energy consuming processes by less energy intensive ones is analyzed by means of a dynamic equation, relating the energy demand to the level of output, the price of energy and the prices of other inputs. Using a rather unique data set, consisting of panel data pertaining to several thousands of manufacturing firms, it is found that large firms can reduce energy costs more than small firms.This article reports on research carried out in the MOPS-project. Participants of MOPS are the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, the Research Institute for Small and Medium-sized Business in the Netherlands, and the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.The authors thank Bert Balk, Jos van Deventer, Peter Kooiman, Huib van de Stadt, Roy Thurik, Wim Vosselman, Ton Werkhoven and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Oil price shocks in a portfolio-balance model

In the 1970s oil price increases were often associated with downward pressure on the foreign exchange value of the dollar. In order to identify the factors generating this association, we examine an oil price shock in a portfolio-balance framework where a wealth transfer is generated by altered current account positions. We show that the exchange-rate impact of higher oil prices depends importantly on the asset prefernces of both oil importers and oil exporters, as well as exchange rate expectations, which are influenced by countries' abilities to adjust to higher oil prices.     

Differing patterns of industrial dynamics: New Zealand,Ohio, and Sweden, 1978–1994

New Zealand, Ohio, and Sweden have experienced sharply divergent macroeconomic developments since the early 1970s. During the 1980s, New Zealand went from being the most heavily regulated and protectionist OECD country to one of the least regulated and most open economies in the world. Ohio suffered severe economic downturns when its major industries (steel, automobiles, and machinery) went through devastating crises. Since then, a major restructuring has taken place, and manufacturing output, exports, and employment have generally grown faster than in the United States as a whole. Sweden had an outstanding industrial growth record for several decades until the mid-1970s but then suffered economic setbacks from which it has not yet fully recovered. Industrial output declined for several years, resumed growth in the early 1980s but then stagnated again in the early 1990s.The object of this paper is to study the microeconomic responses to these differences in the macroeconomic environment. While manufacturing employment declined by more than 20 percent in each country, the number of establishments in manufacturing stayed constant in Sweden while it declined by 9 percent in Ohio and more than doubled in New Zealand.While there are certainly structural differences in the composition of the manufacturing sector in the three economies, these differences explain only a small portion of the differences in development patterns. Only a handful of 3-digit ISIC industries grew in terms of employment in each country between 1978 and 1993, but the growth industries were not the same across countries, and there were substantial differences in the growth patterns within these industries.     

Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries

This paper explores a period of substantial variation in trade policy across industries in Colombia (1977-1991) to examine whether increased exposure to foreign competition generates productivity gains for manufacturing plants. Using an estimation methodology that addresses the shortcomings of previous studies, we find a strong positive impact of tariff liberalization on plant productivity, even after controlling for plant and industry heterogeneity, real exchange rates, and cyclical effects. The impact of liberalization is stronger for larger plants and plants in less competitive industries. Our findings are not driven by the endogeneity of protection. Similar results are obtained when using effective rates of protection and import penetration ratios as measures of protection. Productivity gains under trade liberalization are linked to increases in intermediate inputs' imports, skill intensity, and machinery investments, and to output reallocations from less to more productive plants.     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Commodity windfalls,polarization, and net foreign assets: Panel data evidence on the voracity effect

This paper examines the effects that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970–2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in countries that are ethnically homogeneous. In highly ethnically polarized countries, net foreign assets significantly decreased. To explain this asymmetry, the paper shows that in ethnically polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government consumption expenditures and political corruption. The paper's findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built-in voracity effect.     

How Much More (or Less) Is a Brand Worth When Made in a Low Labor-Cost Country? It Depends Upon Who and Where You Ask

ABSTRACT

This multinational adaptive conjoint study measures how much more, or less, consumers might be willing to pay for different brand/manufacturing country combinations. Chinese, South Korean, and US respondents were asked about their preferences for laptop computers carrying different combinations of price, country of manufacture (CM), and country of brand (CB) cues. For all three respondent groups, price was the most salient attribute, followed by country of manufacturing, and then CB. Nonetheless, respondents from different countries differed in their preferences for price/country of manufacturing/brand combinations. The findings suggest that brands having both positive CB and CM images can charge premium prices in their home countries and abroad. Brands with weaker CB and CM images may enjoy home court advantages domestically; however, they may have to price their products lower when competing in countries with stronger CM and CB reputations.     

Skill Upgrading and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper examines the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on skill upgrading in the case of Chile. Using plant‐level data from the manufacturing sector, we find that a real depreciation increases the share of skilled workers in the total wage bill in exporters but not in non‐exporters. This result suggests that depreciations or, more generally, increases in export profitability, may induce exporters to adopt more skill‐intensive technologies. This finding gives support to recent models of trade that highlight the possible effect of the real exchange rate on skill upgrading and wage inequality. This paper also finds that real depreciations increase plants’ export intensity, suggesting that skill upgrading for firms that are already exporters is the channel through which real exchange depreciations affect wage inequality.     

INFLATION AND THE TIMING OF PRICE CHANGES (*)

Consider an oligopolistic industry in which the firms produce perfect substitutes and incur transaction costs of changing price. Under constant inflation, there is an equilibrium in which the firms change their nominal prices at equally spaced time-points. Increasing the inflation rate increases the size of price changes, increases the frequency of price changes, and increases the average real price paid by buyers. The analysis derives its significance from its implications for the welfare costs of inflation: the inflation-induced distortions in relative prices are larger the more sticky nominal prices are; and are larger the greater the tendency for firms to stagger (rather than synchronize) their price changes.     

基于CGE模型定量分析国际贸易绿色壁垒对我国经济的影响——以发达国家对我国出口品征收碳关税为例

美、欧发达国家为促进本国绿色产业发展,以"碳关税"为突破口,在国际贸易中试图设置绿色壁垒。本文以剖析碳关税的潜在影响为例,建立了国际贸易壁垒对我国经济影响的系统分析框架,并利用动态可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)定量测算了各方面经济影响。结果表明,碳关税对我国实体经济的影响要小于对名义价格水平的影响;对高耗能产品出口抑制作用明显,而对高附加值产品出口影响很小,甚至会有刺激作用。     

Characterisitcs of Exporting and Nonexporting Joint Ventures in Saudi Arabia

The study profiled 83 exporting and onexporting manufacturing joint ventures (JVs) in Saudi Arabia. This represents about one-fourth of all manufacturing JVs in operation at the end of 1987. Stepwise discriminant analysis showed that a set of 9 characteristics representing 4 factors were signficant in differentiating the two groups. Exporting JVs tend to be larger, produce industrial goods in more technology intensive industrial sectors, and be more leveraged than nonexporting JVs. Potential limitations of these findings, and their implications for the policy makers are also discussed.     

Plant Size,Nationality, and Ownership Change

This paper asks whether the motivations behind mergers manifest themselves in different ways across small versus large plants, and between foreign- and domestic-owned plants. The sample consists of all the manufacturing plants in Canada between 1973 and 1999 and is divided into size quartiles by industry and grouped into foreign- and domestic-owned producers. We find that characteristics that are postulated to be associated with the type of synergy upon which ownership changes rely are found to be important factors leading to plant ownership changes across most size classes. However, the importance of synergies increases across size classes in domestic plants. Foreign-owned plants are more likely to experience control changes than domestic plants across all size classes. These differences are closely related to the characteristics possessed by foreign plants that offer takeover synergies. There is also evidence of a managerial failure motive for mergers in the foreign sector that is not found in the domestic sector.     

非常规油气资源开发对美国复兴制造业的影响

美国非常规油气资源大规模开采导致天然气价格大幅度下降,为企业创造了新的低成本竞争优势,为制造业复兴提供了动力。但是,能源密集型制造业的兴起不利于美国政府发展先进制造业的努力。美国非常规油气资源的大规模开发引发的制造业投资和产出增加将减少中国制成品的出口,也为中国转变出口方式、促进制造业转型升级提供了机遇。     

Intensive and extensive margins of exports: What can India learn from China?

We decompose India's export performance in manufactured products during 2000–15 into changes at the intensive and extensive margins. India's performance, along different margins, is compared and contrasted with that of China. The results show that while China outperforms India at both the margins, the gap is particularly wide at the intensive margin. Decomposition of intensive margin along quantity and price margins shows that Chinese products are generally sold cheaper than Indian products. Higher price margin, however, has not translated into high intensive margin for India due to its abysmally low quantity margin. We examine different explanations for China's superior performance relative to India, along different margins, using a gravity model. Our results suggest that China's exchange rate policy was not the prime reason for its export success. Neither do we find that FDI inflows were significant in explaining the export performance gap between them. The results show that China's export relationship bias towards high‐income partner countries holds the key in understanding its superior performance. This bias is a natural consequence of China's high degree of specialization in labor‐intensive activities. India, by contrast, due to an idiosyncratic pattern of specialisation, has failed to exploit its export potential in high income countries.     

Offshoring,Plant Survival and Employment Growth

This paper empirically investigates the effects of offshoring on plant survival and employment growth using data on the Danish manufacturing plants during the period 1995–2006. To control for the potential endogeneity of the offshoring decision, the paper uses instrumental variables and propensity score‐matching approaches. The data allow me to control for the heterogeneity between the units by using firm‐level offshoring activities in different regions and performing the empirical analysis on plantlevel aggregation, which is shown to be of crucial importance. Using firm as a unit of observation, the effect of offshoring is, if any, very small. However, using plant as a unit of observation, there are strong indications that offshoring plays a much larger role for the extensive and intensive margin of adjustments. The results reveal that plants survival prospect is higher if the main offshoring is located in high‐wage countries; lower if it is located in low‐wage countries; and not affected if it is located in medium‐wage countries. Finally, the results also reveal that depending on where the main offshoring is located, the growth rate of low‐skilled employment is 2 to 8 per cent lower in plants of offshoring firms.     

Gibrat,Galton and Job Generation

The proportionate growth of a company decreases with increases in its initial size, in accordance with the Galton model of regression towards the mean. Gibrat's Law of proportionate effect does not hold within size classes or within industries. In job generation accounting, actual increases in employment are even more important than proportionate ones. In the UK small and medium sized companies had larger absolute and proportionate increases in employment than did large companies and were responsible for most of the increase in jobs 1989-93. In fact large companies tended to reduce the numbers they employed.     

EFFECT OF TEXTILE QUOTA RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS BETWEEN 1964 AND 1973

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of U.S. cotton textile quotas on cotton textiles imported into the U.S. between 1964 and 1973. The findings showed that cotton imports requiring more processing stages had significantly greater 10-year average prices than other groups. Changes in the dollar value of imported cotton textiles during the decade have mainly occurred because of an increase in the average prices rather than resulting from a redistribution of imports from low to high average price groups. The weakening correlation between changes in the dollar value and in the quantity of high unit value groups indicated that the control on quantity has not precluded increases in total dollar value of imports in higher processing stages, especially since 1970. Since fabrics with a relatively stable average price accounted for the major importation of cotton textiles during the 1964–1973 period, the overall control by quantity in this decade was still quite good, even though average prices of apparel were rising.     

Market versus Corporate Structure in Plant-Level Innovation Performance

This paper examines the effect which market and corporate structure have on the extent of innovation for a sample of circa 300 manufacturing plants located in Scotland. Innovation is defined as the introduction of a commercially significant new product at the establishment level. The theoretical model of Geroski (1990) is extended to incorporate plant- level variables such as size, multiplant operation, the presence of R&D facilities and external/indigenous ownership. A distinction is made between the direct and indirect effects of these variables. Negative binomial estimations indicate that corporate structure influences are more important in determining the number of innovations than market structure and barrier to entry variables. Plant size, foreign ownership and the presence of R&D are all positively associated with innovation. Direct effects greatly outweigh indirect effects. Tobit estimations on the number of innovations per employee support the findings of Acs and Audretsch (1988) that smaller enterprises are more innovation intensive than larger enterprises, at least up to a limit of around 1200 employees. The positive effect of R&D arises principally from increasing the probability of a plant becoming an innovator, rather than from making a plant more innovation intensive. By contrast, the importance of size lies principally in encouraging further innovations among plants which are already innovators, but less than proportionately with the increase in employment size.     

Oil and the economy: evolution not revolution

Oil price shocks have had significant effects on the U.S. economy, keeping energy supply, energy policy, and energy security always in focus. The U.S. energy industry has become more efficient and productive, with increased output despite a smaller energy sector. Since the oil price shocks of the 70s, both the impact of oil price shocks and the way we think about them have changed. The impact of an oil price shock on GDP and core inflation is much smaller in magnitude than in the past and depends on the source of the price shock. The recent shale boom in the U.S. has significantly increased oil production to a record high. The short-cycle supply response of shale producers to price changes have trimmed the peaks and troughs of oil prices in the medium term. The shale boom has lowered our dependence on foreign oil and made us less vulnerable to a classic oil supply shock, but we need to contemplate the vulnerabilities that arise from the externalities of our energy use, which will become more critical as we go forward.     

政府补贴、资源误置与制造业生产率

政府对部分企业进行补贴,会影响企业的市场进入、退出和规模,导致资源在企业之间的误置,不利于制造业生产率.本文用1998—2007年我国工业企业面板数据,研究政府补贴的资源误置效应对制造业生产率的影响及微观机制.从生产率的分解上看,我国制造业中存在企业之间的资源误置效应,对制造业生产率具有负面作用.实证研究发现,政府补贴是导致这种资源误置的重要因素,补贴会改变市场的广延边际和集约边际,导致资源在受补贴企业和未补贴企业之间的误置,降低制造业的生产率,并且这种资源误置效应在国有资本比重高的行业中更严重.具体来看,广延边际方面,补贴阻碍了市场进入和市场退出,受补贴企业相对于未补贴企业的市场进入和市场退出概率均较低;集约边际方面,补贴有利于受补贴企业扩大生产规模,并挤出未补贴企业的市场份额.本文的启示在于,政府补贴需要在一般均衡框架下考虑其对企业动态和资源配置的影响.