Some evidence on the role of money illusion in labor supply behavior

The Keynesian idea that workers are subject to money illusion in their labor supply decisions is tested by estimating a labor supply function that includes the price level as an independent variable. The model is estimated with data drawn from various BLS publications and is aggregated by SMSA. The results indicate a significant negative supply response to price-level changes after controlling for the nominal wage rate, income, and the SMSA's unemployment rate. There is no significant difference between workers' supply response to the price level and the nominal wage rate, which suggests that workers are not subject to money illusion.     

The monetary explanation of inflation: The experience of three major OPEC economies

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and to test empirically the monetary explanation of inflation in the case of the moderate inflationary experience of three major OPEC economies over the last two decades. The estimated model takes into account the underlying money demand relationship and pays careful attention to the model's lag specifications. The empirical results show that the monetary model of inflation adequately explains the inflationary process in each of the countries studied. These empirical results, furthermore, are econometrically valid insofar as they are not plagued with significant simultaneous-equation bias. In addition, the estimated equations are also found to exhibit structural stability over time.     

Labor market differentials and the expected gain from search

Several recent empirical studies have used the residuals from estimated earnings equations as explanatory variables in models of on-the-job search and quit behavior. It has often been argued that the coefficients on these “market differential” variables are biased downward because estimated residuals overstate the “true” quasi-rent or disincentive to search for alternative employment. This argument—that observed wages include implicit payments for workplace and person-specific characteristics not fully specified in earnings models— ignores an opposing bias associated with the value of being able to reject unattractive wage offers. As a consequence, there is no unambiguous a priori relationship between estimated wage residuals and the theoretical expected gain from search. Some evidence bearing on the relative magnitudes of the two biases is discussed.     

Prices of deep discount bonds and the Revenue Act of 1978: An evaluation of market response

This article explores the market response of deep discount corporate bonds to the reduction in the capital gains tax rate incorporated into the Revenue Act of 1978. Such tax change should have increased the desirability of assets acquired for capital gains potential, such as deep discount bonds. Examining a time series of prices and returns for a sample of deep discount corporate bonds and a control group of comparable duration and credit risk corporate bonds selling at or near par did indeed provide evidence of a market price reaction. Moreover, the price changes for the deep discount bonds occurred well in advance of the implementation of the tax change.     

Multibank holding company activity and local market structure: Some implications for intra- and interstate banking

This paper presents new evidence on the effects of multibank holding companies on the structure of local commercial bank markets for deposits. A distinguishing feature of this study is the use of pooled cross-section and time-series data. It is concluded that multibank holding company activity has had a procompetitive effect on the local banking markets in the sample. This finding, which is quite robust under alternative model specifications, has important implications for state and federal policy toward this organizational form and toward intra- and interstate banking.     

A new approach for measuring wage ignorance in the labor market

In this article we offer a new econometric approach to the evaluation of information content within labor markets. We define ignorance as the difference between the wage (price) individuals earn (pay) with full information and the wage (price) they actually receive (pay) given their limited information stocks, and we make use of a frontier production function approach to measure ignorance for various markets. Our empirical results are highly consistent with the analytical results in six areas of search theory. Furthermore, our results suggest a new interpretation of the role of unions.     

The determinants of occupational mobility patterns among blue-collar jobs

Barriers to mobility are commonly believed to partition blue-collar jobs into skilled, semiskilled, and unskilled components. This paper develops a model based in large measure on the classical gravity model for purposes of ascertaining mobility pattern determinants and for testing for the presence and form of mobility barriers. The model is implemented on a 1965–1970 sample data of male mobility among 60 intermediate-detailed blue- collar occupations. The empirical results reveal that mobility patterns in the blue-collar component conform well with neoclassical theoretical expectations. Very little support is found for the view that the blue-collar labor market is highly structured or segmented in its operations through the mobility process.     

Capital market efficiency and the relationship between equity returns, interest rates, and monetary aggregates in Australia

This paper examines the efficiency with which the Australian share market incorporates new information relating to interest rates and the monetary aggregates into share prices. It finds a strong relationship between medium term government security yields and equity returns although little relationship could be found between unanticipated changes in the monetary aggregates and share returns. Furthermore, the interest rate relationship involved long lags and suggests inefficiency in stock market pricing in Australia.     

Increases in energy prices,costs of production,and plant size

A translog cost function is estimated for U.S. manufacturing in order to investigate plant size differences in responses to increases in energy prices. Smaller plants were more intensive users of energy in the early 1970s but were also better able to substitute out of energy and into other inputs during the first round of energy price increases. As a result, by the mid-1970s larger plants had become more intensive energy users. Thus, later energy price increases probably had a greater adverse impact on the production costs of larger plants in manufacturing.     

Scale economies,entry, and welfare

This study shows how scale economies, initial size differences among firms, potential competition, and adjustment costs may influence the entry of firms into a dynamic oligopoly. It also examines the effects of these factors on the final size distribution of firms in an industry, and on the welfare levels of consumers and producers. We find that low to moderate scale economies are insufficient for Cournot-Nash competition to drive small firms from the market. Only when scale economies are quite high will the distribution of firm sizes become degenerate. Potential competition and the size of incumbent firms' capital stocks are additional barriers to entry. The welfare conclusion is that there may be a government role to preserve potential competition, but also to dissuade small firms from entering certain markets where there are economies of scale.     

The optimal policy rule under rational expectations and multiplier uncertainty

This paper shows the role of macro policy under multiplier uncertainty when expectations are rational and the supply structure is affected by price level variance. Policy less is a function of price level variance and possibly of the expected price level. If the letter argument is omitted from the less function, optimal policy simply minimizes the horizontal variance of the aggregate demand curve. If it is not omitted, the level of policy depends on the responsiveness of the supply structure to price level variance, and there may be multiple local policy optima.     

Bayesian and mixed estimators of time varying betas

Based on the random coefficient model, Vasicek's static Bayesian beta coefficient adjustment model is extended to a dynamic model. It is shown that the time-varying security beta model can be used to identify and resolve the existence of nonstationary (weak stationary) beta coefficient over time. The implication of a random beta coefficient on th standard Bayesian adjustment is also explored. The usefulness of employing time-varying security beta estimates in forecasting the future beta in terms of Box and Jenkins' ARIMA model is also empirically demonstrated.     

The optimal size of the competitive firm

In this article a simple derivation of the optimal long-run size of the competitive firm is given under general assumptions about the organization of the enterprise, and in a world where production occurs only under constant or increasing returns to scale. To do this, only the basic notion of a firm as some form of central coordinating agency is relied on.     

Optimal dynamic behavior of a market maker in choosing bid and asked prices

Dynamic programming is used to describe a specialist's choice of bid and asked prices given uncertainty about both limit and market orders. The role of limit orders is emphasized. Optimal quotes depend on the composition of limit orders, the size of the specialist's position, and the time of day. The optimal bid-ask spread, however, depends only on the composition of the book. The capitalized value of the specialist's franchise is studied. Long-run probability distributions for bid and ask prices are obtained, which show that the variances of these prices increase as the end of the day approaches.     

Sales expectations and inventory changes in retail trade

In this paper a single equation inventory investment model is estimated for the United States retail sector. Monthly data for the 1970s are utilized. In estimating the model it is alternatively assumed that expectations were formed according to a seasonal model, to perfect foresight, and to a narrowly rational expectations model. We find that a model in which expected sales and the expected rate of inflation are narrowly rational can explain most of the variation in retail inventory investment during the time period studied. The results of the estimation imply that retailers have a relatively short forecast horizon, that they can react quickly to either unexpected sales or to a deviation of actual from desired inventory stocks, and that an increase in the real of interest has a statistically negative impact on retail inventory investment.     

Note,advance refunding and municipal bond market efficiency

This study uses the public announcement of an advance refunding to examine the informational efficiency of the secondary market for municipal bonds. The data show that bond yields respond quickly and in the direction predicted. The text discusses methodological considerations and the data sources used in the tests. The results of the study indicate that even for infrequently traded bonds, yields can be expected to reflect fully changes in default risk.     

Oil prices and world inflation

In this paper we attempt to address the nature of the causal relationships between oil prices and U.S. inflation. We use a procedure developed by Granger to assess “causality” or, more precisely stated, “informativeness.” Our results confirm that higher oil prices have increased the U.S. WPI. Our results also support OPEC's contention that their price increases have in part been a result of worldwide inflation.     

A “Pure” long-term interest rate and the demand for money

This article presents the appropriate rate by which to discount a constant, certain, infinite stream of future payments: that is, the yield on a noncallable perpetuity or consol. The American consol series is a daily risk-free “pure” long term interest rate which is undistorted by tax effects, call premiums, and varying duration and reinvestment assumptions. If Hamburger had used the American consol series instead of the U.S. Government Long Term Bond Rate in his money demand function, he would have found more of the “missing money.” His average error (actual minus predicted money demand) as a percentage of actual money demand would have been reduced from 1.43% to 0.93% a 35% error reduction.