Learning,capital-embodied technology and aggregate fluctuations

Recent cyclical episodes in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be long and gradual and busts tend to be short and sharp. A large body of work views the two recent cyclical U.S. episodes, namely, the “new economy” boom in the late 1990s, and the 2000s housing boom-bust as episodes where over-optimistic beliefs have played a significant role. These episodes have revived interest in expectations driven business cycles models. However, previous work in this area has not addressed the important asymmetry feature of business cycles. This paper takes a step towards addressing this limitation of expectations driven business cycle models. We propose a generalization of the Greenwood et al. (1988) model with vintage capital and learning about capital embodied productivity and show it can deliver fluctuations that are asymmetric as in the U.S. data. Learning, calibrated to match the procyclical forecast precision from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, is crucial for the model?s ability to generate asymmetries. Forecast errors generated by the model are shown to trigger recessions that mimic in magnitude, duration and depth the typical post WW II U.S. recession.     

Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks

We analyze the pricing of a productive asset in a class of dynamic exchange economies with heterogeneous, infinitely-lived agents, and self-enforcing intertemporal trades. Individual incomes fluctuate and are correlated; preferences, dividends and aggregate income are fixed. Almost all economies in this class have a unique stationary Markovian equilibrium with fluctuations in asset prices. As the set of unrationed households changes over time and states, excess demand functions shift, asset returns fluctuate, and some households are shut out of asset markets. Examples suggest that the amplitude of these movements is negatively correlated with the productivity of the asset and with the penalty for default.     

Uninsured idiosyncratic risk, liquidity constraints and aggregate fluctuations

Summary. I study the role played by uninsured idiosyncratic risk and liquidity constraints in the propagation of aggregate fluctuations. To this purpose, I compare the aggregate fluctuations of two model economies that differ in their insurance technologies only. In one of these model economies liquidity constrained households vary their holdings of a nominally denominated asset in order to buffer an uninsured idiosyncratic shock to their individual production opportunities. In the other economy every idiosyncratic component of risk can be costlessly insured. I find that the limited insurance technology implies fluctuations in output that are 20% larger, fluctuations in hours relative to output that are 9% larger, fluctuations in consumption relative to output that are 18% smaller, and a correlation of hours and productivity that is 15% smaller than those that obtain under the full insurance technology. Received: March 6, 1996; revised version August 15, 1996     

An expository note on individual risk without aggregate uncertainty

In economies where agents bear some risk, the analysis would often be facilitated by the assumption that the risks are i.i.d. and disappear in the aggregate. A formal appeal to the law of large numbers requires the consideration of a sequence of finite economies. In an economy with a continuum of agents there are countable families of sets for which it is impossible for a law of large numbers to be valid. With countably many agents and a finitely additive measure, independence is compatible with the law of large numbers.     

Labor market institutions and aggregate fluctuations in a search and matching model

This paper explores the influence of labor market institutions on aggregate fluctuations. It uses a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model characterized by search and matching frictions in the labor market and nominal rigidities in the goods market. It finds that firing costs and unemployment benefits can have substantial effects on aggregate fluctuations. Increasing firing costs decreases the volatility of output, employment, and job flows due to the reduction in the mass of jobs sensitive to disturbances and lower incentives for firms to hire and fire workers. Hence, firms adjust to shocks mainly through prices, causing inflation to become more volatile. Raising unemployment benefits has the reverse effect on aggregate fluctuations.     

The impact of technical change on the aggregate production function

This study endeavours to look at both disembodied technical progress and embodied technical progress in the capital stock and in the labour force in the United States over the period 1947–80. The results suggest that disembodied technical progress has been about 3% per year, embodied technical progress in the capital stock is approximately 3–4% per year and educational attainment significantly enhances labour productivity. Finally, when the issue of structural stability of the underlying production relationship is addressed, the period 1971–80 gives rise to some inconsistency.     

A multivariate time series analysis of the United States aggregate production function

This study examines the effects of hours of work per unit of private sector capital, the relative price of energy, government capital per unit of private sector capital, and inflation on private sector output per unit of capital in the U.S. over the period 1952–90. A small vector autoregressive model that comprises the variables typically employed in single-equation estimates of the aggregate production function is used. Variance decompositions and cumulative impulse response functions indicate that hours of work per unit of private sector capital, the relative price of energy, and the inflation rate have significant effects on private sector output per unit of capital over the 1952–90 period. However, there is no evidence of a significant effect for government capital per unit of private capital. An historical decomposition that begins in 1973 with the emergence of a “productivity slump” and continues through 1990 indicates that shocks to hours of work per unit of capital, the relative price of oil, and inflation appear important in explaining output per unit of capital but shocks to government capital are not important.     

Increasing returns and aggregate production efficiency by a monopoly

This paper considers an economy where there are many firms with increasing-returns-to-scale technologies and attempts to derive sufficient conditions ensuring that monopoly achieves aggregate production efficiency. In a setting of one output and many inputs, we obtain such sufficient conditions which can be interpreted as a nondecreasing generalized average productivity of inputs for each firm. We also show that a special class of generalized Cobb-Douglas production functions has such a property that monopoly always achieves aggregate production efficiency.     

A note on lindahl taxes when public goods are inputs to household production

This note explores the incidence of benefit taxation when public goods yield utility only indirectly, as inputs to household production. It provides a condition for tax progression in terms of measurable parameters. The result is contrasted with the usually considered case of public goods being ordinary consumption goods, in which the parameters that indicate whether benefit taxation would be progressive are inestimable because of the preference revelation problem.I am grateful to two referees for insisting on clarifications and for providing useful suggestions.     

A note on the factor-price frontier

Conclusions For an economist the possibility of an upward sloping factorprice frontier is extremely surprising. It has been shown that although such a factor-price frontier is theoretically possible, it is not very likely that it can occur under given economic and technical conditions since it would imply that capitalists are a class of borrowers (from nature) whereas we can be fairly sure that they are a class of lenders.I am indebted to Prof. E. Streissler for helpful comments.     

A note on mergers and relocation

Posada and Straume (J Econ 83:243?C265, 2004) analyze a three-firm model of a circular city where two of the firms merge and may choose to relocate. They propose an equilibrium with relocation where taking part in the merger yields higher profits than staying outside, i.e., relocation may solve the so-called merger paradox. In this note, it is shown that the equilibrium candidate considered is not an equilibrium.     

A note on the duty of disclosure

This letter studies the possibility of voluntary breach of contract in the presence of new information. If the information had to be disclosed prior to the agreement, it is shown by example that all individuals may be worse off than if the act of disclosure is itself voluntary.     

A note on the wise girls puzzle

Summary. This article analyzes the two wise girls puzzle, which is a simpler variant of the so-called three wise men puzzle, with some proof-theoretic tools. We formulate the puzzle in an epistemic logic. Our chief assumption is that the reasoning ability of each player of the puzzle is equivalent to what is described by the epistemic logic. We will interpret the behaviors of the players in the puzzle in terms of unprovability of certain statements. The proof-theoretic tools we employ are consequences of a meta-theorem, known as the cut elimination theorem. Received: August 1, 2000; revised version: May 15, 2001     

A note on the Tobit likelihood function

The likelihood functions for several econometric models are unbounded over certain sequences in parameter space. Examples are the disequilibrium model, the conditional logit model and a certain type of switching regression model. We show how a similar difficulty may arise in the Tobit model but that the presence of this anomaly becomes less likely as sample size increases.     

A note on the diffusion of innovation

The paper deals with the process of substitution between technologies in a framework of increasing returns to scale. The approach stresses the interaction between capacity expansion and market demand as explanations of the diffusion of technologies into their niches. The demand and supply sides of the diffusion process are therefore brought together to determine simultaneously patterns of output and prices.It analyzes the dynamics of the substitution path, where a logistic diffusion process for the new technology is assumed, and determines the substitution curve between the old technology and the new one.     

A note on the pricing of IPOs

This paper studies the pricing of IPOs in a tractable model in which an investment bank faces some investors with superior information. We show how this can lead to underpricing and we make a number of empirical predictions.