Sectoral border effects and the geographic concentration of production

The object of this paper is to study the relationship between the border effect and the geographic concentration of production. We explain this relationship through the home market effect and test the robustness of this explanation by using an analysis that considers the European single market. A sectoral gravity equation is estimated with different econometric estimators; in particular, we discuss a recently suggested estimator for log-linear CES models. Overall, our findings suggest a steady relationship between the border effect and the concentration of production. Furthermore, the analysis of concentration through a synthetic index provides us with valuable insights into the structure of the European industry.     

Alternative Panel Estimates of Alcohol Demand,Taxation, and the Business Cycle

This paper uses a new technique of estimating dynamic heterogeneous panels developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999) on state-level alcohol consumption as a function of income, taxes, and cyclical variables. Pooled mean group (PMG) estimators provide an alternative to extremes of pooling the data assuming slope homogeneity and estimating individual states assuming complete heterogeneity. Postsample tests indicate that a conventional fixed-effects model outperforms both the PMG estimator and individual state estimators, despite the heterogeneity of the sample. Current levels of taxation appear to have little effect on alcohol consumption, and alcohol is found to be a procyclical good.     

The gender‐corruption nexus in Asia

This study investigates the relationship between the share of women in parliament and the level of corruption in a panel of Asian countries during the period 1997–2015. This study applies the instrumental variable (IV) fixed effect approach using a system of gender quotas, which are either reserved seats, legal candidate quotas, or voluntary political party quotas as instruments to control for unobserved heterogeneity across countries, and to alleviate endogeneity bias. In addition, the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator is applied in order to address the persistence of corruption, which causes biased and inefficient estimators in estimation. The main finding is that a higher share of women in parliament is associated with a lower level of corruption, which is consistent with evidence from studies by Dollar et al. (2001) and Swamy et al (2001).     

On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS

This study deals with the out-of-sample predictability of realized volatility induced by implied volatility using FGLS. The original dataset was collected from Bloomberg and includes price and implied volatility indices from the US, Hong Kong, China, South Korea and India. Prices were then transformed into realized volatility indices. The relation between realized and implied volatility is important insofar as market expectations about future turbulence may affect the investor's behavior in advance. However, there are some features of the financial data which turn problematic the choice of the OLS estimator. These features include endogeneity and persistence of the predictor, and also conditional heteroskedasticity of the predicted innovations. Consequently, OLS becomes biased and inefficient. The FGLS estimator accounts for these characteristics and, therefore, performs better than OLS-based estimators, as indicated by many of our results.     

On Export Composition and Growth

The hypothesis that exports in technology-intensive industries have a higher potential for positive externalities coupled with higher productivity levels (due to higher rates of capitalization) is tested using a comprehensive and detailed data set, covering 45 industrialized and developing countries and including exports of 33 industries over the time period 1981–1997. The estimation results, using a random effects model and employing an instrumental variables estimator, support the hypothesis of qualitative differences between high- and low-tech exports with respect to output growth. The superior performance of high-tech exports stems from their positive productivity differential to the domestic sector, while the externality effect is not significant at any meaningful level of significance. The positive productivity differential is only significant for the subsample of developing countries. No significant effects were found to be present in the subsample of OECD member countries. JEL no. O41, O50, C23, F14     

WAGES AND WORKPLACE COMPUTER USE IN CHILE

This paper presents robust evidence regarding the impact of computer use in the workplace in Chile during the period 2000–2006. The key contribution of this paper is to present evidence for a developing country using matching techniques and assuming a homogeneous treatment effect. Wage impact is then measured through the nearest neighbor and kernel estimators. The results consistently show that there is a premium associated with the use of computers in the workplace, interpreted as an increase in worker productivity arising from the inclusion of an additional production factor (i.e., the computer). Estimates indicate a premium of around 26% for 2000 and 16% for 2006.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Diversity at the Workplace: Whom Does it Benefit?

We examine whether firms and their employees benefit from age and educational diversity. At the plant level we explain productivity with workforce characteristics. Age diversity is positively and educational diversity negatively related to total factor productivity. These conclusions are robust to using alternative estimators (fixed effects, GMM, and Olley-Pakes approach). Individual gains are evaluated by estimating earnings equations with job match fixed effects. The explanatory variables include individual demographic variables, plant-level workforce characteristics and variables that describe the individuals’ relative position in the age, education, and gender structure of the plant. Plant-level diversity does not have a significant effect on individual wages. However, being different from others in terms of age, i.e. relational demography, is positively related to wage.     

The residential demand for electricity in Japan: An examination using empirical panel analysis techniques

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Japan, excluding Okinawa-prefecture, from 1975 to 2005 as a function of the disposable income per household and the overall unit price of electricity for general consumers, by using the empirical panel analysis techniques of a panel unit root test, a panel cointegration test, and group-mean dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimators to determine whether or not each variable is stationary. This study's contribution is twofold. First, for a more accurate empirical economic analysis, it divides Japan into a number of regions so that the estimation of coefficients becomes more powerful due to the increased degree of freedom from the utilization of the panel data. Second, the study chose Japan for this analysis on the basis of discussions regarding the deregulation of the residential electric power supply that is scheduled for the near future. All variables—sales per household, price, and income per household—can be assumed to have a unit root and cointegration relationship. The results determine that the price effect is negative and elastic and that the income effect is inelastic. These results correspond to other such studies on developed countries that are significant economic powers.     

基于DID和SDID的科技专项资助与企业科技成果关系研究——以珠三角为例

科技专项资助作为企业创新发展的重要资源之一，对企业的科研成果产出因果效应还不明晰。基于因果推断理论，以珠三角地区受到应用研究项目资助和基础研究项目资助的企业为样本，运用双重差分法（DID）和合成双重差分法（SDID）探究科技专项资助与企业科技成果产出的关系。研究发现，应用研究项目和基础研究项目资助均提升了企业的科研成果产出数量，经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、更换被解释变量检验、异质性检验等一系列检验后结论依然稳健；相较于受到基础研究项目资助的企业，受到应用研究项目资助的企业产出了更多的科研成果；相较于近年来被广泛应用的政策评价方法DID，SDID表现出了更好的稳健性。     

Estimation of the East African Community's trade benefits from promoting intra‐regional trade

In the literature on economic integration, the optimum currency area (OCA) theory says that there should be a high degree of trade between potential members of a monetary union for them to benefit from the use of a single currency. This study uses an augmented gravity model of trade to estimate the East African Community's (EAC) trade effects, as this community decided to participate in a monetary union by 2024. The study uses the fixed effect filter (FEF) estimator, which follows a two‐step approach and outperforms the standard fixed effects (FE) estimator. The results indicate that EAC has the potential to increase trade among partner states by 122% more than expected from the normal trade levels. The study, therefore, supports the ongoing East African Monetary Union process. However, to improve the likelihood of creating a more sustainable monetary union, the study recommends these countries to primarily focus on the full implementation of the customs union and common market steps. The main contribution of this study is that it provides robust estimates of the EAC's effects on intra‐regional trade using more recent data and updated econometric techniques.     

Alcohol consumption by men in China: A non-Gaussian censored system approach

Consumption of beer, wine and spirits by men in China is investigated, using data from the 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey. Censoring of consumption levels is accommodated by estimating a censored equation system, using quasi maximum-likelihood and copula methods which allow the specification of non-Gaussian error distributions. Findings suggest that a misspecified error distribution can obscure the effects of explanatory variables on alcohol consumption. The procedure produces very different empirical estimates from a more conventional (Gaussian) estimator. Income does not affect alcohol consumption, with socio-demographic factors such as education, employment, and marital status playing more definitive roles. Regional differences are also found.     

The Relative Returns to Graduating from a Historically Black College/University: Propensity Score Matching Estimates from the National Survey of Black Americans

This paper considers the returns to earning a baccalaureate degree from a Historically Black College/University (HBCU) relative to a non-HBCU for black Americans. With data from the National Survey of Black Americans, we use propensity score matching estimators to estimate the treatment effect of graduating from an HBCU on direct labor market outcomes, and on psychological outcomes that indirectly increase wages. We find that the treatment effect of graduating from an HBCU relative to a non-HBCU is positive with respect to labor market and psychological outcomes across three decades. As our direct labor market outcome measure reflects permanent earnings, our results suggest that as HBCUs afford graduates relatively superior long-run returns they continue to have a compelling educational justification, as the labor market outcomes of their graduates are superior to what they would have been had they graduated from a non-HBCU.     

THE EFFICIENCY‐STABILITY TRADE‐OFF: THE CASE OF HIGH INTEREST RATE SPREADS IN VENEZUELA

This paper examines the determinants of the high intermediation spread observed in the Venezuelan banking sector during the 1990s (by far the largest in the Latin American region throughout the 1990s). We trace the evolution of the spread and its connection with other bank‐specific variables. A reduced‐form equation is estimated on the basis of a simple behavioral model for the banking firm previously developed by Shaffer and extended by Barajas, Steiner, and Salazar. Using different types of estimators for aggregate and pooled data of the financial system, we found that high spreads can be attributed to market power, high operating costs, and expected portfolio risk. The empirical results also suggest a trade‐off between assuring bank solvency and lowering profitability.     

Estimating the Effect of Individual Time Preferences on the Use of Disease Screening

Economists have long been interested in evaluating the role that time preferences play in a wide range of economic decisions. In the health care arena, time preferences may be an especially important determinant of many decisions—particularly the use of preventative health care. One potential barrier to patient adoption of preventative screening regimens is that they impose current costs on consumers with the hope of lower costs in the future. Using data from a national survey, we jointly estimate latent discount rate and preventative service demand models using a limited information maximum likelihood estimator (iterated M‐estimator). The results suggest that discount rates are generally inversely related to the likelihood of most screening tests.     

The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality

This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in OECD countries. We apply the multi-horizon causality method developed by Dufour et al. (J Econ 132(2):337–362, 2006) for the first time, taking into account the possibility of infrequent structural trend breaks. Econometric techniques that avoid the circular problem when testing for segmented trends and unit roots have been employed along with a hybrid estimator of break location. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from exports to economic growth for Finland, Germany, and the United States in the short run horizon, and directly in the cases of Austria and Ireland. We verify a direct causal relation from economic growth to real exports in France, Luxembourg and Portugal in various continuous horizons. Bidirectional causal relations between exports and economic growth were detected in Greece and Norway.     

中印两国利用外国直接投资比较——基于美国直接投资流入的视角

本文从美国直接投资流入中印两国的现状、对中印两国的影响及影响美国直接投资流入的因素等三方面,对中印两国利用外国直接投资进行了比较研究。     

Democracy and foreign direct investment at the industry level: evidence for US multinationals

Theories of multinational enterprises emphasize that foreign direct investment (FDI) is undertaken in different industries for different reasons, yet studies of the effects of democracy on FDI most commonly use aggregate-level FDI data. This paper evaluates US FDI outflows to 15 industries (eight manufacturing, seven nonmanufacturing) in 54 countries in a linear dynamic panel-data gravity FDI model using a “system” generalized method of moments estimator and three widely used democracy indicators. At the aggregate-level, we estimate a positive effect of democracy on FDI, consistent with most prior studies. At the industry level, we estimate larger positive effects of democracy on FDI for service than manufacturing industries, particularly for finance and insurance and information, and negative effects for mining and oil and gas extraction.     

Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries

The goal of this article is to examine the determinants of inflation in both the short run and the long run for 54 developing countries using a panel data set covering the 1995–2004 period. Apart from the commonly used economic determinants of inflation, we model the impact of remittances and institutional variables on inflation. Using the Arellano and Bond panel dynamic estimator and the Arellano and Bover and the Blundell and Bond system generalized method of moments estimator, we find evidence that in developing countries remittances generate inflation. The effect of remittances on inflation is more pronounced in the long run. Moreover, we find that openness, debt, current account deficits, the agricultural sector, and the short‐term U.S. interest rate have a positive effect on inflation. We also find that improvements in democracy reduce inflation.     

The effect of real-time fiscal policy on sovereign interest rates in OECD countries

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of real-time projections of fiscal policy stances on government bonds long-term interest rates using a panel of 20 OECD countries between 1992 and 2008. To deal with endogeneity arising from forecasts of fiscal balances the paper exploits instrumental variables and GMM estimators together with the variation in real-time primary balances. The study shows how a static specification that does not include the one-period lag of the interest rate is prone to serial correlation and to downward bias in standard errors. To correct the bias, a dynamic specification with the lagged interest rates used as explanatory variable should be used due to the intrinsic persistent behavior of the interest rates. Results show that when the persistency of the interest rates is taken into account, it corrects the bias in standard errors of the estimates, and the correlation between fiscal policy variables and sovereign rates disappears: the inertia of the behavior of interest rates is the only variable affecting the relation.