Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?

Establishing cointegration and long-run convergence between the official and the black market exchange rates is a way of testing foreign exchange market efficiency. Earlier research employed the Engle-Granger or Johansen method to test for cointegration between the two rates. Since either method requires each rate to be non-stationary, exchange rates that did not possess this property had to be excluded from analysis. However, with the introduction of the bounds testing approach to cointegration, no exchange rate needs to be excluded since this relatively new technique does not require pre-unit root testing. This paper employs monthly data from 27 developing countries and the bounds testing approach to cointegration by Pesaran et al. (2001) to show that in 22 out of 27 countries, not only are the two rates cointegrated but in all countries the black market exchange rate causes the official rate to adjust and converge toward the black market rate in the long run.     

Engaging the stakeholders: corporate views and current trends

This paper is based on research conducted at Imperial College in 1996, in which the authors have reviewed the extent, purpose and motivation of evironmental stakeholder initiatives (ESIs). The research objective was to determine ESIs' impact on corporate environmental management through a survey of businesses engaged in such initiatives, and to propose a set of recommendations for successful implementation of ESIs. Previous research on the subject has mainly discussed the case for stakeholders' involvement, reviewing whom companies would target as stakeholders. This paper goes a step further by assessing the current ESI practices of the researched companies in terms of style, purpose and method of engagement, as well as the target audiences and timing of these initiatives. Five stages of ESI undertaken by companies are identified and the benefits, as well as limiting factors, are discussed. In addition to the research conclusions the key factors for successful ESIs and a set of recommendations for companies engaging in such initiatives are presented. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Complementary medicine: health care trends for the new millennium

Complementary medicine is emerging as a dominant factor in the health care setting. Although these practices generally are not taught in most medical schools, public interest has generated a necessity for education in this field. The interest in these therapies is reflected in billions of dollars spent out of pocket by the public to obtain these therapies. Many practitioners find themselves uncomfortable discussing these therapies with their patients and/or referring to outside practitioners. Discussion of the modality therapeutic touch has generated interest and controversy. Education helps to bridge the gap between allopathic and complementary medicine. National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine practitioner guidelines are presented.     

Early retirement: recent trends and implications

In recent years there has been a substantial rise in the number of people in Britain retiring before the normal statutory pensionable age. This article attempts to explain this development and examines some doubts about early retirement as a special employment measure.     

Interregional Migration and Thresholds: Evidence from Spain

We analyse the effects of labour market factors on interregional migration in Spain for the period 1988–2010. A basic theoretical framework is developed, suggesting that the effect of labour market variables on migration varies, depending on a certain threshold. The model implications are tested using a new approach based on the presence of endogenous thresholds. We show that Spanish interregional migration can be explained by labour market variables when the labour market conditions at the source region are unfavourable relative to those of the host region. We test the results for several migrant characteristics, such as citizenship, the age range, and return migration.

Migration inter-régionale et seuils - résultats de la recherche en Espagne     

Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited

This study investigates, using state-level data for the period 2000–2005, the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of "voting with one's feet." This analysis differs from previous related studies not only in its adoption of more current migration and other data but also in other ways. First, unlike most earlier related studies, it includes a separate measure of the overall cost of living; second, it examines per pupil (rather than per capita) outlays on public primary and secondary education; and third, in addition to property taxes, it also focuses on per capita state income tax burdens. Inclusion of the last of these variables in the analysis is based on studies that have found the existence of a state income tax to have influenced migration patterns and other studies that have found higher state income tax levels to have resulted in reduced per capita income growth over time. Moreover, including both property tax burdens and income tax burdens broadens the scope of the hypothesis. Strong empirical support for the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis (as interpreted here) is obtained for the study period.     

Modernising pay in the UK public services: trends and implications

The emerging character of the UK government's public sector pay reforms during the second and third (New) Labour terms of office is reviewed and contextualised. Three settings are examined where pay reform has been actively employed – with the accent on harmonisation, simplification and devolution of practice, with the express intention of restoring public service workforce morale, while improving services to clients – namely, local government, the National Health Service and the Higher Education sector. The evidence is interpreted as illustrating undoubted change, but also significant areas where progress has been less than intended, measured against the government's original programme goals. Equal pay considerations appear to have dominated all three projects reviewed: the failure to date of public sector managements to capitalise on opportunities the new pay architecture affords them to change local working practices may be attributed to a combination of factors discussed in the article. These have given rise to tensions as efforts have been pursued to transplant private sector pay techniques, somewhat hastily in some cases, without due consideration of the institutional context within which public services and proximal institutions function.     

Rural-Urban Migration Rates and Development: A Quantitative Note

There have been two earlier efforts to estimate how rural outmigration rates evolve over the development process. In one the sample was too small and possibilities of a non-monotonic pattern were precluded. In the other inverted U-shaped migration rate patterns were estimated on the basis of an urbanization logistic curve. It is argued here that estimates based on such a curve would tend to be biased downward at very high per capita income levels. The reason is the relatively small rural populations of most industrialized countries. In such countries relatively high rates of rural outmigration could still be consistent with relatively slow rates of urbanization. Using more direct estimation techniques inverted U-shaped patterns were confirmed, but the turning points occurred much later in the development process and the migration rate estimates were sharply higher (up to five times at the highest per capita income levels) than those of the logistic estimates or even those estimated here on the basis of an LDC only sample. Finally, when the effects of income growth rates on migration rates were estimated directly, the high sensitivity levels found in the logistic study (where growth rates were treated simply as a shift parameter) could not be replicated.     

Migration and public policies: a further empirical analysis

This study of internal migration at the state level empirically investigates the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of “voting with one’s feet.” In addition to its adoption of more current data (net migration from July, 2000 through July, 2008) than other related studies to date, the model differs from most previous comparable studies by including a separate cost of living variable and a measure of per capita state income tax burdens. We also test the hypothesis using two alternative specifications: one linear and the other semi-log. Finally, the analysis also provides both OLS and 2SLS estimates. The advantage of this multi-faceted approach is that it permits an assessment of how sensitive the results are to specification changes and to different estimation procedures. After controlling for economic factors and a quality of life/climate variable, migrants (consumer-voters) appear to prefer lower state income tax burdens, lower state plus local property tax burdens, and higher per pupil outlays on primary and secondary public education.     

Sustainability practices: trends in New Zealand businesses

This paper reports on the sustainability practices of New Zealand businesses based on two national surveys and a series of focus groups and interviews. There was an average increase of 10% in the number of companies adopting environmental practices from 2003 to 2006. There was less of an increase for social practices, although still more commonly adopted by companies than environmental practices. Values and beliefs of management were the overwhelming driver for the adoption of sustainability practices with reputation and brand also significant drivers. Costs, management time, and knowledge/skills were the three most commonly reported barriers to adoption of sustainability initiatives. The implications of the study are that for New Zealand business, there is a strong link with the business case for sustainability. For policymakers interested in achieving sustainability goals, the results suggest that a ‘soft’ approach to business practices may be in order in New Zealand. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The Pursuit of Opportunity: Explaining Selective Black Migration

This paper examines the destination choices of black migrants during the Great Migration. As previous research has shown, educated blacks were more likely to relocate to the North in the pre-World War II era. This analysis shows that this tendency can be attributed to the better educated migrants' ability to finance transportation costs, greater responsiveness to intercity wage differentials, and stronger distaste for Southern disamenities. After 1940, the destination choice gap closed, largely because migrant responses to wage differentials and valuation of Southern disamenities changed. These changes are observed both in the population at large and within birth-year cohorts.     

企业价值转移和资本结构:一项实证分析

本文选取2001年沪深A股677家上市公司的市场和财务数据,首先检验两个指标是否具有显著相关性:市值规模比和长期负债比率。并按价值转移理论,利用市值规模比把677家上市公司划分为三组:价值流入期、价值稳定期和价值流出期。实证研究处于不同价值转移阶段企业资本结构的特点。     

Migration and job change: a multinomial logit approach

A multinomial logit model of residence and job change is developed and estimated using U.S. data from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics. It is found that both housing demand and job search characteristics are significant determinants of the decision to migrate and that both equilibrium and disequilibrium forces induce migration and job change. In addition, "the data do not appear to be ordered with respect to job and residence change contingencies with the exception of changing neither job nor residence relative to all other contingencies."     

To criticize the critics: An objective bayesian analysis of stochastic trends

In two recent articles, Sims (1988) and Sims and Uhlig (1988/1991) question the value of much of the ongoing literature on unit roots and stochastic trends. They characterize the seeds of this literature as ‘sterile ideas’, the application of nonstationary limit theory as ‘wrongheaded and unenlightening’, and the use of classical methods of inference as ‘unreasonable’ and ‘logically unsound’. They advocate in place of classical methods an explicit Bayesian approach to inference that utilizes a flat prior on the autoregressive coefficient. DeJong and Whiteman adopt a related Bayesian approach in a group of papers (1989a,b,c) that seek to re-evaluate the empirical evidence from historical economic time series. Their results appear to be conclusive in turning around the earlier, influential conclusions of Nelson and Plosser (1982) that most aggregate economic time series have stochastic trends. So far these criticisms of unit root econometrics have gone unanswered; the assertions about the impropriety of classical methods and the superiority of flat prior Bayesian methods have been unchallenged; and the empirical re-evaluation of evidence in support of stochastic trends has been left without comment. This paper breaks that silence and offers a new perspective. We challenge the methods, the assertions, and the conclusions of these articles on the Bayesian analysis of unit roots. Our approach is also Bayesian but we employ what are known in the statistical literature as objective ignorance priors in our analysis. These are developed in the paper to accommodate explicitly time series models in which no stationarity assumption is made. Ignorance priors are intended to represent a state of ignorance about the value of a parameter and in many models are very different from flat priors. We demonstrate that in time series models flat priors do not represent ignorance but are actually informative (sic) precisely because they neglect generically available information about how autoregressive coefficients influence observed time series characteristics. Contrary to their apparent intent, flat priors unwittingly bias inferences towards stationary and i.i.d. alternatives where they do represent ignorance, as in the linear regression model. This bias helps to explain the outcome of the simulation experiments in Sims and Uhlig and some of the empirical results of DeJong and Whiteman. Under both flat priors and ignorance priors this paper derives posterior distributions for the parameters in autoregressive models with a deterministic trend and an arbitrary number of lags. Marginal posterior distributions are obtained by using the Laplace approximation for multivariate integrals along the lines suggested by the author (Phillips, 1983) in some earlier work. The bias towards stationary models that arises from the use of flat priors is shown in our simulations to be substantial; and we conclude that it is unacceptably large in models with a fitted deterministic trend, for which the expected posterior probability of a stochastic trend is found to be negligible even though the true data generating mechanism has a unit root. Under ignorance priors, Bayesian inference is shown to accord more closely with the results of classical methods. An interesting outcome of our simulations and our empirical work is the bimodal Bayesian posterior, which demonstrates that Bayesian confidence sets can be disjoint, just like classical confidence intervals that are based on asymptotic theory. The paper concludes with an empirical application of our Bayesian methodology to the Nelson-Plosser series. Seven of the 14 series show evidence of stochastic trends under ignorance priors, whereas under flat priors on the coefficients all but three of the series appear trend stationary. The latter result corresponds closely with the conclusion reached by DeJong and Whiteman (1989b) (based on truncated flat priors). We argue that the DeJong-Whiteman inferences are biased towards trend stationarity through the use of flat priors on the autoregressive coefficients, and that their inferences for some of the series (especially stock prices) are fragile (i.e. not robust) not only to the prior but also to the lag length chosen in the time series specification.     

Migration and gender differences in the home labour market: Evidence from Albania

This paper examines the role of migration in affecting the labour market opportunities of male and female household members left behind. We address this question by analyzing the impact of international migration flows from Albania, where migration is a massive and male-dominated phenomenon. We find that the labour supply of men and women responds differently to current and past migration. Controlling for the potential endogeneity of migration, estimates show that having a migrant abroad decreases female paid labour supply while increasing unpaid work. On the other hand, women with past family migration experience are significantly more likely to engage in self-employment and less likely to supply unpaid work. The same relationships do not hold for men. These results suggest that while left-behind women in Albania may take on the extra burden associated with the migration of male family members, they gain employment opportunities upon their return.     

Returns to Scale and the Economic Impact of Migration: Some New Considerations

Abstract

This paper builds on an earlier paper by the author. It uses a simple model to analyse the economic impact of international migration on a large city. The paper assumes that immigration causes the population of the city to grow, thereby increasing the cost of living for existing residents. In one version of the model, the government responds by increasing public-sector wages so as to help offset the higher cost of living. The private sector follows suit. In another version, wages are determined by supply and demand. The paper investigates what happens to living standards, unemployment and the location of the native population under different assumptions about returns to scale. The mathematical analysis is supplemented by numerical simulations.

Retours à l’échelle et l'impact de la migration sur l’économie: quelques considérations nouvelles

RÉSUMÉ?La présente communication est basée sur un ouvrage précédent du même auteur. Au moyen d'un simple modèle, elle analyse l'impact économique des migrations internationales sur une grande agglomération. Cette communication présuppose que l'immigration détermine une augmentation de la population de la ville, en augmentant ainsi le coÛt de la vie pour les personnes qui y sont domiciliées. Dans une version de ce modèle, le gouvernement intervient en augmentant les salaires dans le secteur public, dans le but de compenser pour ce dernier l'augmentation du coÛt de la vie. Le secteur privé en fait de même. Dans une autre version, les salaires sont déterminés par la loi de l'offre et de la demande. La communication se penche sur ce qu'il en advient du niveau de vie, du chômage, et l'emplacement de la population autochtone dans le cadre de différents hypothèses sur des retours à l’échelle. L'analyse mathématique est complétée par des simulations numériques.

Retornos a escala y el impacto económico de la emigración: varias consideraciones nuevas

RÉSUMÉN?Este ensayo se agrega a un trabajo anterior del autor. Utiliza un modelo simple para analizar el impacto económico de la emigración internacional en una ciudad grande. El trabajo presupone que la inmigración provoca el crecimiento de la ciudad, aumentando por lo tanto el coste de la vida de los residentes existentes. En una versión del modelo, el gobierno responde incrementando los sueldos del sector público, para ayudar a contrarrestar el aumento de la carestía de la vida. El sector privado sigue su ejemplo. En otra versión, los sueldos están determinados por la oferta y la demanda. El trabajo investiga el efecto sobre el nivel de vida, el desempleo y la ubicación de la población autóctona bajo diferentes asunciones sobre los retornos a escala. El análisis matemático se complementa con simulaciones numéricas.

     

街道办事处：历史变迁与改革趋向

街道办事处处在我国行政体制的末端 ,连接着政府和城市社区 ,在城市社区建设中发挥着重要作用。本文在简要回顾了街道办事处的历史沿革之后 ,着重分析了其所处的“职权权小”的困境 ,并试图总结街道办事处的改革趋向即“第三级管理”的利弊 ,以利于对街道办事处的改革进行更深入的思考