An economic analysis of fertility,market participation and marriage behaviour in recent Japan

This is the 1st attempt in modelling fertility, labor force participation and marriage rate using Japanese data. The authors use Butz and Ward's model and extend it to a simultaneous equation system as in the case of Winegarden. Although the estimates obtained by Full Information Maximum Likelihood and Three Stage Least Squares of the model are statistically significant, some of the signs of the estimates are not consistent to a priori predictions. The crux of the model is that an increase in the wages of men has an unambiguous positive effect on fertility, whereas an increase in wages of women may not lead to higher fertility due to the dominance of substitution effect. But the issue of whether there are discriminatory employment practices and cultural pressures on the participation of women in the labor force, raised by the results obtained can only be answered using a larger set of data or with the help of panel data.     

Soviet fertility,labor-force participation,and marital stability

A simultaneous-equations model of Soviet fertility and labor-force participation is estimated from a cross section of 72 oblast's of the Russian Republic (RSFSR) reported in the 1970 census. The construction of the model is based on the neoclassical theory of household behavior. Simulated changes capture effects of policy changes in the exogenous variables on Soviet fertility and the female labor supply. The exogenous variables investigated are child care facilities (CC), urbanization ratio (URB), male education (MALED), and female education (FEMED). It was found that an increase in FEMED affects labor force participation (LFP) directly and indirectly through impact on birth rate (BR). Increase in CC raise both LFP and BR; increases in FEMED causes womens withdrawal from the labor force and one would expect this to raise BR; however, FEMED raises the opportunity costs of fertility sufficiently to neutralize this effect. Increasing urbanization does not affect participation in a significant way, but it does retard fertility. This effect works through LFP's impact on BR and the indirect effect working through marital stability. A final set of simulations captured the impact of upward shocks of LFP, BR, and the ratio of divorces to marriages (DIV/MAR) on the endogenous variables. Such changes could occur through changes in abortion laws, tightening of divorce laws, or changes in labor legislation. Participation is reduced by the fertility shock, just as fertility is retarded by the LPF and marital stability shocks. Evidence of a backward-bending labor-supply curve was also found. The model is illustrated by tables and charts.     

An analysis on economic opportunity

Although economic opportunity is considered as a latent variable, it can serve as another factor in promoting growth and development. Through the construction of an economic opportunity index, this article identifies the extensity and intensity channels through which economic opportunity is created. Data on 24 variables for 184 world economies for the period 2000 to 2010 are collected for the empirical analysis. The methodology involves the use of principal component analysis in constructing three indices for the parametric and nonparametric regression analyses. The country sample is divided into OECD and non-OECD economies so as to examine their different performances. Extensity seems to be the more important channel to all economies, but for non-OECD economies, a higher performance in intensity can enrich the effect of extensity on economic opportunity.     

An economic analysis of mixing wastes

Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous waste, this paper studies optimal waste policy when households have to exert separation effort to produce homogeneous waste streams suitable for recycling. Our model explicitly allows for changes in the composition (quality) of waste streams depending on how much effort households are willing to spend on separating different types of waste. Accordingly, we are able to generalize some earlier contributions to the waste management literature and demonstrate that with both mixing and effort included, a first-best optimum is feasible under reasonable conditions. In particular, we find that a (modified) deposit-refund system still provides the optimal incentives to guide recycling as well as legal disposal (landfilling) and illegal dumping. Both the number and level of taxes and subsidies needed to reach the first-best depend crucially on the socially optimal level of dumping as well as the socially optimal composition of the mix. We are grateful to two anonymous referees, Leon Bettendorf, Elbert Dijkgraaf, Don Fullerton and Matthieu Glachant for constructive comments and useful discussions on an earlier version of this paper.     

The economic fertility of industrial projects

The economic impact of two industrial projects was forecast using economic fertility analysis. The results of the analysis suggest that the implementation of projects such as those described here add to the resources of government, enabling them to move closer to realization of social objectives, whereas concurrent decreased government revenues and increased transfer payments based on short term political considerations are directly inflationary and represent a threat to longer term social stability. The two projects were a crude oil petrochemical plant, with an investment of $200 million, and a controlled environment agricultural plant, costing $20 million. Direct, indirect, and induced economic activity for each project were calculated, from which income and employment multipliers, and forward and backward linkages were derived. New government revenues, balance of trade effects, and new capital formation were also forecast. Employment in terms of man-years on construction and in jobs created by the operations, as well as consumer expenditures and personal savings, were other outputs of the analysis. Construction and operation phases of the two projects were more beneficial than an equivalent increase in transfer payments in the generation of longer term effects such as new capital formation, new government revenues, and import-export balance, but were less efficient than increased welfare payments in generating short term effects such as consumer expenditures and short term employment.     

Spectrum allocation in Latin America: An economic analysis

As elsewhere, wireless markets play a crucial role in Latin American economic growth. Mobile telephone networks increasingly provide the communications infrastructure that has largely been lacking throughout the region. Yet, governments have generally made only modest allocations of bandwidth available to Latin American wireless operators, either absolutely (in terms of spectrum each country could allocate at modest opportunity cost) or relative to countries in North America, Asia and the European Union. Using an empirical model estimated on mobile phone data for international markets, we show that very large social benefits are available to countries that make more spectrum available for mobile phone markets. We conduct simulations using our calibrated model to provide lower bounds for country-by-country gains from larger allocations. We also discuss the impact of alternative regulatory regimes on the feasibility to achieve those social gains.     

药物经济学循证方法浅析

药物经济学评价方法在国际上已得到广泛应用,而国内相关药物政策中也越来越多地提到要使用经济性作为重要参考指标。笔者研究认为,对于经过较充分临床研究的药物治疗手段而言,可以采用基于循证证据的经济学评价,以提高效率和降低成本。本文讨论了药物经济学循证方法的意义与局限性,并基于其内在特征进行了初步分析和探讨。     

Financial assistance for study abroad students: An economic analysis

This paper examines the scholarship payback policy embedded in a study abroad program. A full payback policy requires a student to return the whole amount of the scholarship should he fail to achieve a target post-program performance, whereas a partial payback policy requires a payback amount in proportion to the extent of the under-performance. It is found that, the university should adopt a fixed amount scholarship to maximize the average post-program ability. There is also an optimal partial payback policy.     

Money, endogenous fertility and economic growth

This paper analyzes the issue of money superneutrality through an intertemporal optimizing model of capital accumulation with endogenous fertility, i.e. endogenous population growth. Two elements of this setup invalidate money superneutrality: (i) a demand for fertility that depends on real money balances, and (ii) an inverse relation between capital–labor ratio and population growth. Higher monetary growth increases fertility, since it reduces its opportunity cost, and hence diminishes capital intensity, and per capita output. This reverse Tobin effect is matched by an increase in aggregate capital and output growth rates. In this framework, the optimal monetary growth rule is a “distorted Friedman rule”.     

Financial development and economic growth in Australia: An empirical analysis

The paper empirically examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in Australia in terms of bank-based and market-based financial structure. A time-series approach using the VAR Model is used to provide evidence for the dynamic relationship. The paper provides empirical evidence on the causal impact of the financial market on the economic growth of the Australian economy. The results suggest that financial intermediaries and financial markets have different impacts on economic growth given their diverse roles in the domestic economy. In particular there is evidence of causality from economic growth to the development of the financial intermediaries. On the other hand, development in the financial markets causes economic growth but there is no evidence of any causality from economic growth to financial markets. The sensitivity test using different interest rates does not change the results.I Jel classification: O16, G18, G28I We would like to thank Tilak Abeysinghe and Rajagurn Gunasekaran for their helpful comments on the first draft. Also, we would like to thank the Editor, Prof. Baldev Raj, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

中国区域经济发展的经济学分析

1.生产力层次推移理论 生产力层次推移理论是国际上的一种区域经济理论,即无论在世界范围内还是一国范围内,客观上存在着经济技术上的不同层次。     

Human capital accumulation, fertility and economic development

We examine the development paths of an economy by incorporating the trade-off between the quality and quantity of children and the substitutability between the educational effect within the family and the education paid for by the parent. There is a threshold wage rate, above which individuals begin to invest in the human capital of their children, while reducing the number of children. At this point, the economy shifts from an exogenous growth phase to an endogenous growth phase. It is also shown that the aggregate saving rate is positively correlated with the youth dependency ratio in the development process.     

An evaluation of the success of the hungarian economic reform: An analysis using international-trade data

The behavior of centrally planned economies (CPE's) will markedly differ from that of market economies (ME's). Tests of the success of decentralizing reforms in Hungary are based on comparing the behavior of post-reform Hungary to CPE's and ME's at similar levels of development. The basis of comparison is the pattern of comparative advantage. Discriminant analysis is used to examine whether there are significant differences between CPE's and ME's. The discriminant function, a linear function of the comparative advantages, is then used to classify pre- and post-reform Hungary. The results indicate that the reform has been effective.     

国际服务贸易促进我国经济增长的实证分析及对策研究

随着全球经济的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易,服务贸易在我国经济高速持续增长中能够发挥重要支持和源泉作用。通过对1985-2001年的统计数据进行实证分析国际服务贸易对我国经济增长的作用,对我国服务贸易开放度与国际竞争力进行实证分析探讨服务贸易对经济增长带动不足的原因。提出引进、消化国外先进的生产性服务;发挥服务业传统优势,提高服务业知识技术含量,不断创造出新的优势;用竞争优势理论,努力增强我国服务贸易的国际竞争力;充分发挥政府在服务业竞争能力培育中的作用等增强服务贸易国际竞争力、支撑经济增长的政策建议。     

透析中国市场化进程中权力嵌入现象--市场化"质"的问题的政治经济学思考

目前,对中国市场化程度的定量研究都假定市场是同质的。然而,我们的研究表明,市场体系不是同质的。市场化的过程是以利益为枢机,各种社会权力相互博弈的过程。在中国的市场形成过程中,权力嵌入、制度安排非中性现象非常突出。     

"以人为本"的经济学分析

经济学是研究人的经济活动的科学。人是经济活动的主体,人的发展是经济学研究的目的和归宿。在市场经济活动中,物的发展与人的发展存在非对称性,人与物相背离的现象对人的发展构成严重制约。经济学的研究必须立足于人,以人为本,研究以物的发展求得人的整体的全面发展的规律和方式方法。     

Deficits and interest rates: : An analysis examining some neglected variables

This paper examines the impact of federal deficits on the nominal long-term rate of interest in the United States, using the IS-LM and loanable-funds models. Unlike the other studies, however, the paper expands these models to include variables to reflect wartime periods, bank regulation and deregulation, recession, and new exchange rate systems. It is found that the federal deficits have positive and significant impact on the long-term rate of interest during the period 1955–1985.