我国大型普查的困境和出路——基于安徽省全国第一次经济普查工作的思考

国家普查周期和项目的安排、我国财政管理体制、大型普查本身对数据质量的要求,决定了我国各级财政对大型普查的负担规模和水平,形成了我国大型普查在数据质量、组织保障和经费投入上的窘境,特别是很多县级普查机构不堪重负.通过安徽省在第一次全国经济普查的摸索、总结和思考,为统计部门优化大型普查方法和改进大型普查组织的提出了目标和有益的途径.     

我国大型普查的困境和出路——基于安徽省全国第一次经济普查工作的思考

国家普查周期和项目的安排、我国财政管理体制、大型普查本身对数据质量的要求，决定了我国各级财政对大型普查的负担规模和水平，形成了我国大型普查在数据质量、组织保障和经费投入上的窘境，特别是很多县级普查机构不堪重负。通过安徽省在第一次全国经济普查的摸索、总结和思考，为统计部门优化大型普查方法和改进大型普查组织的提出了目标和有益的途径。     

Updating Poverty Maps without Panel Data: Evidence from Vietnam*

A household survey and a census can be combined to estimate a poverty map for small areas. Ideally, the survey and the census should be conducted in the same year. In several empirical applications, however, survey and census years can be different, which might make poverty estimates biased. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey 2002 and the 1999 Population and Housing Census, the present paper produces a 2002 poverty map for Vietnam and describes the biases when the survey and census years are not coincident. It is found that poverty estimates from the poverty mapping method taking into account the time difference between the survey and the census are quite close to survey‐based estimates, at least at the regional level.     

中美经济普查给我们的启示和思考

现实要求我们在普查实践中优化方法、提高数据质量、改进组织模式、减少投入,以维系和发展我国的大型普查,推进我国统计制度和调查体系的健全和完善.中美两国经济普查的实践给我们提供了一系列改进普查方法和组织的经验和教训,为我们优化大型普查方法和改进大型普查组织的提出了目标和有益的途径.     

Evaluation of the results of the register-based population and housing census 1990 in Finland

"The 1990 population and housing census was the first one in Finland to be conducted entirely on the basis of registers, without any questionnaires. The Finnish population census system draws on the basic administrative registers of the society giving data on the population census target units and the links between them. These units comprise individuals, families, households, buildings, dwellings, enterprises and establishments. Transferring from one data collection method to another inevitably causes some kind of break in the time series. Because of these breaks it was decided in Statistics Finland to carry out an extensive evaluation study to analyse the differences between questionnaire-based and register-based census data."     

Use of population censuses as multi-subject data bases in the Federal Republic of Germany

The program for conducting the next population census in the Federal Republic of Germany is outlined. This census, originally scheduled for 1981, was postponed to 1983, and again, to 1986. The relationship of census data to data from other sources is described. The emphasis is on how the data will be used for analysis and planning, particularly with regard to the economy, services for the elderly, and regional planning.     

Unemployment levels of Black people in Natal census districts according to the 1985 census

The basic needs approach to development is based on the premise that all people are entitled to adequate consumption goods (nutrition, shelter, clothing) and state‐provided infrastructure (health care, education, potable water, sanitation and transport). Consumption needs are financed (in the absence of a well‐developed social welfare system) largely by income from employment. The black population in employment as a percentage of the economically active, in the 1985 census districts in Natal, black population in employment as a percentage of the economically active age cohort and the employed as a percentage of the total population were calculated in order to establish the census districts (and the urban and non urban sectors of these census districts) where employment levels are lowest. It is possible on the basis of this data to target employment creation at the census districts where it would be most beneficial.     

How many Chinese Indonesians?

Until the census of 2000, no attempt had been made since the 1930 census to elicit data from Indonesians about their ethnicity. The 2000 census question on the subject was necessarily based on self-identification. However, the very low figure recorded for ethnic Chinese Indonesians implies that large numbers of them chose not to identify themselves as such, probably because of fears aroused by outbreaks of anti-Chinese violence in 1998. The 2000 census figure of only 1.8 million Chinese, less than 1% of the total population (or 1.4 % according to a proposed adjustment) seems far too low to be credible. In 1930 Chinese Indonesians represented about 2% of the total, and they have generally been assumed since then to amount to 2-3% of the population. This note examines the key variables relevant to that assumption, which seems likely to be nearer the truth than the recent census figure.     

Labor force competition and the black-white wage gap

Have the increasing numbers of women and immigrants in the U.S. labor force adversely affected the relative earnings of black men? A recent article in this journal argued that they have, based on empirical analysis of 1970 census data. The present study begins with a critique of both the theoretical assumptions and the empirical methods of this earlier article. A regression analysis of 1980 census data is then undertaken, which indicates that recent immigration has not had a negative impact on the relative wages of central-city black men. The findings also suggest that while higher rates of female labor force participation are statistically associated with lower black-white wage ratios, this effect is limited to teenagers.     

U.S. census data uses

"This article examines the principal applications of the statistics yielded by the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. Before doing so, however, a framework of census policy and operational features that directly influenced the content of the questionnaires will be outlined.... Having established this background, the uses of census data will be addressed, citing case examples in some instances, for...major groups of data users."     

Methodological aspects of the 1984 Hungarian microcensus

The methodology used in the 1984 microcensus of Hungary is described. The main innovation involved the use of preprinted personal data from the National Population Registration Office, which meant that enumerators had prepared questionnaires available before undertaking census interviews. A trial census held in 1984 in Gyor County is also described.     

The debate on the future of the population census: Relevance for South Africa?

The cancellation of the Canadian census long-form questionnaire in 2010 and its subsequent reinstatement in 2015 resulted in a vigorous international debate on the future of the mandatory census. Questions concerning state invasions of personal privacy, party political interference and public trust and cooperation in state data-gathering were raised. As a result, alternative forms of demographic data collection were explored and the experiences of other countries examined. National population registers and non-mandatory surveys offered alternatives, but each had their own distinct disadvantages. South Africa has continued to conduct mandatory detailed censuses since 1994 and the enumerations have encountered little political opposition because they are presented as essentially nation-building exercises providing credible and relevant data, upon which national policies may be based and monitored. At present there is little incentive to change the current format of statistical collection in the absence of a viable alternative.     

Census statistics through combined use of surveys and registers?

"In this paper we present some results from a study [concerning Norway] on the feasibility of producing census statistics through the combined use of surveys and registers. The main finding is that if one is willing to relax a little on the need for accuracy of statistics for 'small' areas, the large majority of the census statistics can be produced by such a combined use of data sources."     

基于SSM的泉州市县域经济优势产业选择研究

在泉州市第二次经济普查数据和第三次经济普查数据基础上,以泉州市尺度的区域经济发展为参照系,应用偏离-份额分析法定量分析泉州市管辖的11个县市的各产业部门,县域差异显著,其中晋江市县域经济总规模变化对泉州区域经济规模增长的贡献最大,其他县市贡献度以次为鲤城区、丰泽区、南安市、惠安县、石狮市、安溪县、泉港区,永春县、洛江区、德化县;并据SSM分析图筛选11个县域的优势、劣势产业,为泉州市县域经济发展与产业结构调整提供参考。     

FIRST RESULTS FROM THE 2000 POPULATION CENSUS

This note discusses the preliminary results of the 2000 Population Census, and their implications for population trends. It outlines problems encountered in collecting the census data, some of which arise from census policies and practices, and others from changed circumstances following the crisis and democratisation. It considers issues that will influence the calculation of the final estimates, highlights some surprising aspects of the results, and offers recommendations for future enumerations.     

The determinants of interregional migration in Kenya

The polytomous logistic model is applied to unpublished census data from Kenya to test recent theoretical advances in migration theory. In addition to reporting econometric results for interregional migration in Kenya, the accumulated knowledge on the key determinants of migration, as reported in some 20 econometric studies on internal migration in developing countries, are summarized.     

Impacts of long-lasting civil conflicts on education: Evidence from the 2014 Census of Myanmar

Geocoded conflict information was combined with the 2014 household census data to study the impact of long-lasting township-level internal conflicts on Myanmar's primary school attendance (i.e., the short-term impact) and years of education (i.e., the long-term impact). First, we constructed quasi-panel data for primary-level schooling to find consistently negative, but statistically insignificant, impacts of internal conflicts. The results are robust, even if incompleteness of census or migration are taken into account. In addition, the magnitudes of estimated impacts are much smaller than those of the findings from other countries. Second, we confirmed that conflict exposure from 6−10 years of age has a negative but insignificant impact on years of education. Gender differences in terms of negative impact are almost negligible. By carefully reviewing previous papers and the characteristics of Myanmar’s conflicts until 2014 with respect to the mechanism of the negative effect of conflict on education, we argue that the small negative and statistically insignificant impact found in our analysis is due to the long-lasting and low-intensity nature of the conflicts, as well as the fact that schools and social services are provided by military forces. However, it is important to note that our analysis does not include data of the recent violence in Rakhine state.     

Differences in white-non-white returns to schooling: Theory and policy

Summary and conclusions In this paper, we reviewed and evaluated the empirical literature on differences in white-non-white returns to schooling during the pre- and post-Civil Rights Act of 1964 periods. The most striking results, using the 1960 census data, are that returns to education for Blacks are low. Equally interesting are the results using 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity data; these show that Blacks have gained considerably relative to whites in returns to education. A logical explanation of these differences was the impact of the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964.     

Hide-and-seek: China's elusive population data

Due to the one-child policy and the increasing mobility in the country, Chinese population statistics show serious defects. Particularly affected are underreported birth numbers and contradictory migration data. While policy evasion and cadre manipulation produce bias in both cases, migration data also suffer from unresolved definitional issues. The problems have become exacerbated in the 1990s and created a data muddle. They spill over into economic analyses with a heavy demographic content. The modalities of the 2000 census make it unlikely that it will remedy the situation.