Internal migration data in India: state of the art

The availability and content of official data on internal migration in India are reviewed. The primary data sources described are the census and the National Sample Survey. Problems concerning these data are discussed.     

Birthplace migration in India: 1961, 1971

Available aggregate data on migration based on the 1961 and 1971 Indian censuses are analyzed and compared in an attempt to identify changes in the magnitudes of the various migration propensities. Migratory movements are classified according to sex, distance of move, and rural or urban area of origin and destination.     

Dynamics of rural-urban migration in India: 1960-1981

"This paper analyzes a multi-sectoral simulation model of the Indian economy designed to isolate the sources of Indian economic growth and urbanization since 1960. The model shares many common traits with other computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models, and its underlying framework is neoclassical. The model stresses spatial issues so that it can provide predictions on rural/urban labor demands, and hence on migration flows. The central issue we seek to evaluate is whether a neoclassical development paradigm can explain adequately the somewhat paradoxical patterns of urbanization and economic growth observed in India since 1960. Our conclusion is a qualified, affirmative response, based on the model's ability to replicate key macroeconomic variables."     

Minidevaluations and indexed wages: The Brazilian experience in the seventies

This paper examines how financing a deficit in the trade balance permitted Brazil to increase her productive capacity during the last decade. The model presented brings into the center of the argument the question of the division of output between the classes of society stressing the political element in economic development. It incorporates indexed wages and their interplay with minidevaluations together with the effects these policies had on growth, inflation and the functional distribution of income, during the last decade. The persistent surplus of imports has led to debt payments that already put a burden on the balance of payments. Policies available for adjusting the Brazil foreign accounts are discussed.     

The role of family decision in internal migration: the case of India

This paper analyzes the effects of family decisions and individual decisions on rural-urban migration in India under 2 different rural institutions--family farm and wage labor systems. An analytical framework for explaining family migration decisions reveals that whenever a member of the extended family migrates, he gives up his share in the produce of the family farm. When this happens, the number of adult members on the farm goes down and the total product is affected. 3 case studies of Indian villages are analyzed for this study. 2 empirical relations are examined: 1) if individual migration decisions are predominant, and 2) if family decisions are important in determining the overall flow of migration. Relationships between migration decisions and other variables, such as: 1) number of males in urban areas; 2) urban wages; 3) daily wage rate; 4) average agricultural income; 5) railway distance between rural and urban areas; 6) size of the labor market in destination region; 7) probability that a migrant arriving in an urban area will find a job; and 8) comsumption expenditure, in urban areas estimated by working class consumer price index, are determined. Results show that: 1) the market determined wage variable does not play a very significant role in migration decisions; 2) distance is one of the most important variables in analyzing migration; and 3) the aggregate flow of migration is affected if migration decisions are predominantly family decisions. These findings have relevant policy implications for less developed countries (LDCs), especially because large flows of rural-urban migration in recent years have forced governments to adopt policies for controlling the flows to reduce the burden of unemployment in the urban areas. Government policies affecting rural institutions will have an impact on migration flow; those that lead to a reduction of uncertainty in agriculture will affect average per-capita consumption levels in family farms and hence influence the flow of migration.     

Internal migration and youth entrepreneurship in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This paper analyzes youth internal migration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on entrepreneurship startup in a fresh post‐conflict context. Building on a national representative survey conducted in 2005, a recursive bivariate probit specification is used to jointly estimate the decision models of both migration and entrepreneurship. To evaluate the robustness of results, the propensity score matching method is used to test the concordance of the results after eliminating the redundant impact of unobserved factors. The two main conclusions are that youth migration increases the probability of being an entrepreneur, but in the informal sector. In addition, like secondary and post‐secondary education, the duration of stay after migrating is an important factor to being an entrepreneur in the formal sector. These conclusions are expected to enlighten policy‐makers as to the importance of promoting secondary and post‐secondary education as well as inclusive growth investments that may absorb more youth labor in formal sectors. This is the first exercise in the case of the DRC and since it focuses on youth, the paper makes a unique contribution to the literature related to the link between migration and entrepreneurship in a post‐war context.     

Information flow,expectations and job search: rural-to-urban migration process in India

"Probabilistic migration models assume that search for urban jobs is entirely an urban-based activity and that employment in free-entry activities is a transitional phase during which migrants are actively searching for formal sector employment. This paper tests the empirical validity of these assumptions using data, collected by the author in a sample survey in Delhi [India] in 1975-76, on 1,400 migrants from rural areas." Evidence is presented "that the migration process postulated in probabilistic models is not realistic in the case of Delhi. Over one-half of the sample had moved to Delhi after lining up specific jobs; a sizeable proportion expected to enter on arrival activities generally considered to be characterized by freedom of entry; and the majority of entrants into free-activities did not search for alternative employment and were engaged in the same activities at the time of the survey."     

Re-examining export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration analysis for India

Objectives of the 1996 overhaul of the US welfare system included reducing dependency, raising employment and de-incentivizing out-of-wedlock fertility. Using public use state-level panel data from 1990 to 2005, I analyse how state implementation of welfare reform simultaneously affects the caseload, employment and out-of-wedlock births (henceforth, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) objectives). Because endogeneity and simultaneity could not be rejected, I use Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method. Results indicated that most of the steep decline in the caseload is attributed to welfare reform, while the economy's overall effect paled in comparison. However, lagged and contemporaneous unemployment individually ranked second and third behind the Hispanic share of state population. The conservative tilt over the period studied ranked forth, followed in declining order by full family sanctions, Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) payments, time limits (lagged by length), access to abortion clinics, lump-sum TANF diversion payments, and TANF benefit payments. Findings also suggest that policy does not always work as intended: caseloads are found to be higher in states that have highly regarded family formation and job retention TANF programs; and EITC payments are associated with lower not higher caseloads. The most compelling finding in this study is that low-income families likely turn first to unemployment insurance and then to TANF assistance.     

Determinants of renewable energy adoption in China and India: a comparative analysis

This article examines the dynamic relationships among output, carbon emission and renewable energy generation of India and China during the period 1972 to 2011 using a multivariate vector error correction model (VECM). The results for India reveal unidirectional short-run causality from carbon emission to renewable energy generation and from renewable energy generation to output, whereas in the long run, the variables have bidirectional causality. Causalities in China give a rather different scenario, with a short-run unidirectional causality from output to renewable energy and from carbon emission to renewable energy generation. In the long run, for China, unidirectional causality is found from output to renewable energy generation, while bidirectional causality is found between carbon emission and renewable energy generation.     

Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis

Trade facilitates growth in some regions of a country while shrinking others, and therefore to benefit from trade, labour may need to be able to migrate. This mobility is particularly crucial in a developing country with high income inequality like Mexico. We seek to answer the following questions: What characteristics facilitate or hinder that internal migration? Has trade liberalization changed the pattern of internal migration in Mexico? We first predict regional economic growth resulting from changes in Mexico-US tariffs by sector. We find that trade liberalization appears to have largely benefited the manufacturing sector. Next, using a spatial gravity model of migration, we find that while economic growth from trade openness drew workers to urban regions in the northern Border States of Mexico, much of the trade-driven migration occurred before NAFTA. Second, contrary to popular belief, migration from largely rural states appears to have decreased since NAFTA. We also find evidence that migration to the United States increased after NAFTA. Last, we find that income disparity in both the destination and origin region deters migration and that this effect increases after NAFTA. Thus, we see evidence that within-region income disparity can hinder migration, potentially exacerbating income disparity among regions.     

Rural-urban migration,informal sector and development policies: a theoretical analysis

"A theoretical model of rural-urban migration has been developed with special reference to the informal sector. The wage rate and employment in the informal sector are determined endogenously. The paper shows the simultaneous existence of open unemployment and informal sector in the urban area in migration equilibrium. The effects of alternative subsidy policies on unemployment and welfare of the workers are studied." The model is intended primarily for use in analyzing trends and policies in developing countries.     

The economic effects of a counterinsurgency policy in India: A synthetic control analysis

Using the synthetic control method, we analyze the economic effects of a unique counterinsurgency response to the Naxalite insurgency in India. Of all the states affected by Naxalite violence, only one state, Andhra Pradesh, raised a specially trained and equipped police force in 1989 known as the Greyhounds, dedicated to combating the Naxalite insurgency. Compared to a synthetic control region constructed from states affected by Naxalite violence that did not raise a similar police force, we find that the per capita NSDP of Andhra Pradesh increased significantly over the period 1989–2000. Further, we find that the effects on the manufacturing sector are particularly strong. Placebo tests indicate that these results are credible and various difference-in-difference specifications using state and industry level panel data further corroborate these findings.     

Impact analysis of the green revolution in India

A detailed impact analysis of the Green Revolution has been conducted using a multiple-network technique. The various direct and indirect impacts are reported. The Green Revolution has made poor farmers poorer and the government has to initiate some action to rectify its adverse socio-economic consequences.     

Bank lending channel in India: evidence from state-level analysis

This paper seeks to answer two questions: first, do monetary policy shocks affect the size of bank loans, and second, do bank loans affect real economic activity? Using annual panel data on the Indian states from 1996 to 2008, we find that money demand shocks have large and statistically significant impact on bank loans. Furthermore, using money demand shocks as instruments for bank lending à la Driscoll (J Monet Econ 51:451–471, 2004), we find an economically large and statistically significant effect of bank loans on output. Our findings, to some extent, reflect the dominant role played by banks in the India’s overall financial system.     

Black market exchange rates in India: an empirical analysis

In this paper, we explore the determinants of black market (BM) exchange rates in India using annual data from 1955–1994 and integration and cointegration analysis. Two important factors, namely the import capacity of official foreign exchange reserves and restrictions on international trade, have largely been ignored as determinants of BM rates. We stress the importance of these two factors and incorporate them, with others more familiar in the literature, in our theoretical and empirical model for BM rates in India. Our empirical findings show that a low level of official foreign exchange reserves negatively and a high level of trade restrictions positively affect BM rates. We show that the flexible Bretton Woods exchange rate policies for India in 1973 have a negative impact on BM rates. The results also reveal that interest rate policies positively affect BM rates. Thus, our empirical model lends support to the trade and monetary approaches to BM rates and hence, trade restrictions with excess money supply should be removed to eliminate the BMs for forex in India. First Version Received: September 98/Final Version Received: January 2000     

Financial liberalization and bank efficiency: a comparative analysis of India and Pakistan

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the evolution of the technical efficiency of commercial banks in India and Pakistan during 1988–1998, a period characterized by far-reaching changes in the banking industry brought about by financial liberalization. Data Envelopment Analysis is applied to two alternative input–output specifications to measure technical efficiency, and to decompose technical efficiency into its two components, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. The consistency of the estimated efficiency scores are checked by examining their relationship with three traditional non-frontier measures of bank performance. In addition, the relationship between bank size and technical efficiency is examined. It is found that the overall technical efficiency of the banking industry of both countries improved gradually over the years, especially after 1995. Unlike public sector banks in India, public sector banks in Pakistan witnessed improvement in scale efficiency only. It is also found that banks are relatively more efficient in generating earning assets than in generating income. This is attributed to the presence of high non-performing loans. In addition, it is found that the gap between the pure technical efficiency of different size groups has declined over the years.     

Determinants of rural-urban migration in Andhra Pradesh: an inter-district analysis

"This paper is an attempt to analyze the process of rural-urban migration based on the data relating to the ?Place of Birth' for Andhra Pradesh [India]. The specific objective of this study is to present a rigorous economic analysis of the process of inter-district rural-urban male migration as seen from 1971 migration data. With the help of a simple model...the direction and magnitude of relationships between selected explanatory variables and migration have been identified."