Reconstructing production efficiency,land use and trade for livestock systems in historical perspective. The case of France, 1961–2010

This paper provides an original accounting of changes in livestock production efficiency per livestock category in historical perspective and connects livestock consumption with land requirements and virtual land trade. We use France as a demonstration study and account for productivity changes in terms of energy. Feed rations composition are reconstructed per livestock production and feed crop group over time to account for changes in land use in relation to dietary changes. Land requirements for consumption in France dropped by 28% over the study period besides an increase by 35% of the human population and by 53% of the livestock consumption. The two-fold increase in agricultural productivity is due, for half, to energy conversion efficiency improvements and for half to agricultural yields. Overall, the livestock energy conversion efficiency increased by 45% from 1961 to 2010, poultry gained 84%, pork 17%, sheep&goat 67% and cattle 27%. The feed share of oilcrops and cereals in animal rations doubled against a drop by 35% of feed from pastures. Virtual land imports for oilcrops in relation to livestock consumption in France today amount to 0.9 million ha against a maximum of 1.9 million ha in 1979. Besides its dependence on oilcrops imports, the French livestock sector displays net virtual land exports ranging from about 2.5–5.3 million ha per year over the study period. Gross virtual land trade is today five times higher than the net virtual trade. The difference highlights the share of circular product loops in increasingly integrated agricultural markets at the international scale.     

Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis

The rapid growth of biofuels production, particularly in the United States, the EU, and Brazil, has had important implications for the global livestock industry—both by raising the cost of feed grains and oilseeds and by forcing onto the market a large supply of biofuel by‐products, most of which end up in livestock feed rations. This article investigates the impact of an expanding biofuels industry on the mix and location of global livestock production. Surprisingly, we find that growth in the U.S. and EU biofuels industries results in larger absolute reductions in livestock production overseas than in those regions, due to the international transmission of grains prices which is offset locally by the lower cost of by‐products. We also find that nonruminant production is cut more than ruminant livestock, because it is less able to use biofuel by‐products in its feed rations. Implementing biofuel mandates increases cropland area, a large portion of which is estimated to come from reduced grazing lands. The biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and increase imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils, while they increase their exports of processed feed materials. In sum, biofuel mandates have important consequences for livestock as well as crops, with net effects influenced by the important role of by‐products in substituting for feedstuffs.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

Challenges of trade and agricultural development for East/Central Europe and states of the former USSR

The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization. Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.     

Impacts of regulating greenhouse gas emissions on livestock trade flows

Policies regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to create a significant burden on emitting industries as well as final consumers, which can lead to a strong influence on international trade flows of commodities. This study examines whether the regulation of GHG emissions affects livestock trade flows. A commodity‐specific gravity model approach is employed to estimate and test the impact of regulating GHG emissions on livestock trade flows. The results show that regulation of GHG emissions has a negative effect on livestock trade flows from countries restricting GHG emissions to countries without GHG restriction, from restricting countries to restricting countries, and unrestricting countries to restricting countries.     

中国畜产品出口贸易效率及潜力研究——以“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家为例

目的 文章分析了中国对“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家畜产品出口贸易效率及贸易潜力,以挖掘贸易潜力,推进双边畜产品贸易发展和畜牧产业合作。方法 运用2001—2020年面板数据构建随机前沿引力模型,测度中国对沿线国家畜产品贸易效率及潜力,并对经济规模、对外投资、地理位置等影响因素进行实证分析。结果 中国与沿线国家的经济发展水平、中国对外投资、是否加入WTO都对中国畜产品出口沿线国家有显著正向促进作用,而沿线国家的政治稳定程度和畜牧业发展水平则对中国畜产品出口该地区有抑制作用。结论 中国对沿线国家畜产品出口的贸易效率极不平衡,对亚欧经济带国家的出口效率远高于中亚及环中亚经济带;畜产品出口贸易潜力从高到依次为环中亚经济带、中亚经济带和亚欧经济带,其中,对亚美尼亚、哈萨克斯坦、阿富汗和伊朗等中西亚国家的畜产品市场潜力极大。我国应积极推进经济走廊的建设,完善自身贸易环境,以在“一带一路”倡议下提高中国畜产品出口贸易效率,释放贸易潜力,推动双边贸易的有效发展。     

Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

Livestock in China: Commodity-Specific Total Factor Productivity Decomposition Using New Panel Data

Studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate TFP for four major livestock products in China employing the stochastic frontier approach, and decompose productivity growth into its technical efficiency (TE) and technical progress components. Efforts are made to adjust and augment the available livestock statistics. The results show that growth in TFP and its components varied between the 1980s and the 1990s as well as over production structures. While there is evidence of considerable technical innovation in China's livestock sector, TE improvement has been relatively slow.     

基于“双循环”视角的中国与其他金砖国家畜牧产业：比较优势与合作潜力

目的 在“双循环”的新发展格局下,深化畜牧业国际合作是促进我国畜牧业向现代化转型升级的重要举措。方法 文章简述分析中国与其他金砖国家畜牧业发展以及双边畜产品贸易概况,并运用兰氏距离法、产业内贸易指数法以及随机前沿引力模型从不同视角分析中国与其他金砖国家在畜牧业领域的合作潜力。结果 （1）金砖各国畜牧产业发展比较优势明显,中国与其他金砖国家畜产品贸易份额持续上升;（2）中国与巴西、印度在畜牧业生产要素方面的互补指数分别为1.296和1.037,具有高度互补性,与俄罗斯、南非的互补性指数为0.707和0.391,处于中等偏高度水平;（3）中国与其他金砖国家在畜产品贸易中整体以产业间贸易为主,贸易互补性较强,尤其是在肉类、奶类、蛋类产品上有很大的贸易互补性;（4）双边畜产品贸易效率呈波动上升趋势,整体效率水平较低,还有极大的畜产品贸易潜力可挖掘,贸易可提升空间巨大。结论 我国要积极与其他金砖国家在畜牧业资源、畜产品深加工、牲畜养殖、技术装备、畜产品贸易等多领域展开深入合作,实现畜牧业“走出去”与“引进来”,打造畜牧业新发展格局,促进区域经济协同发展。     

Costs and benefits of livestock systems and the role of market and nonmarket relationships

In developing countries livestock are kept not only for their physical products, but also for insurance, financing, and to display status. Though this range of purposes is acknowledged, livestock policies nevertheless often emphasize physical production: a limited perspective that hampers the formulation and implementation of effective livestock policies. This article presents a comprehensive appraisal of costs and benefits of livestock systems that takes into account the institutional environment of livestock keepers. Indicators are developed that capture, quantify, and organize not only the benefits resulting from the physical production, but also those from the intangible functions. The method is illustrated by an analysis of cattle in the Western Province of Zambia. The results indicate that the perspective on livestock systems developed more closely reflects the observed decisions of the livestock keepers.     

The impact of agricultural productivity increases in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe on world agricultural markets

This paper studies the impact of productivity increases in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe on world agricultural markets and the regions’ bilateral and sectoral agricultural trade flows. We use a six‐region, 13‐sector general equilibrium model. We find that productivity increases lead to a significant increase in the regions’ agricultural output and exports and the former Soviet Union's agricultural imports. The former Soviet Union's net agricultural imports increase, whereas Eastern Europe's net agricultural trade balances improve. Overall, agricultural exporters will benefit, particularly, if productivity increases are not limited to or disproportionally high in agriculture.     

Meat and milk self-sufficiency in Asia: forecast trends and implications

Recent structural changes in dietary patterns in Asia resulting from economic development are placing increasing pressure on the existing production systems in the region-particularly those systems producing ruminant meat, non-ruminant meat and milk. This has significant policy implications for the countries in the region in terms of self-sufficiency goals in these commodities and the associated inter-and intra-regional trade opportunities in the future. Forecasts of ruminant meat, non-ruminant meat and milk production and consumption for selected Asian countries between the years 2000 and 2010 revealed the following: China, Pakistan and Viet Nam are likely to be self-sufficient with respect to ruminant meat; Malaysia is likely to continue to be a net importer of ruminant meat; India and Malaysia will be more than self-sufficient with respect to non-runvinant meat with the converse being true for Pakistan; and India, Laos and Pakistan will be self-sufficient with respect to milk production with the possibility of Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia becoming self-sufficient if the current trends continue. Structural changes in the early 1980s generally resulted in higher average annual growth rates of production-particularly in non-ruminant meat production. Thus forecasts of ruminant meat production and consumption by 2000 using the medium-term average annual growth rates for production present a more favourable outcome in terms of self-sufficiency for countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and Viet Nam but a less favourable outcome for countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos and India. Similar forecasts for non-ruminant meat indicated an improvement in the long-term non-ruminant self-sufficiency estimates for most cases-particularly for Bangladesh, China and Cambodia. Intensification and commercialisation of meat production systems have increased meat self-sufficiency in a number of countries but often at the expense of grain self-sufficiency. Given these trends, the impact of trade liberalisation measures on livestock production in the region and inter-and intra-regional trade of livestock commodities and grain is likely to be significant.     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分.自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验.本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,...     

Grain Production and Food Security in Arab Countries

Grains are the most important group of products in the food security programs of the Arab countries. These countries suffer from a shortage of food in general and in particular a shortage of grains. This results from a rapidly growing population and growing disposable incomes. This paper describes the grain sector in the economy of the Arab countries with special attention to its role in the national and regional food security programs. First, output and consumption of grains between 1973 and 1984 are analysed in all Arab countries, with special attention to wheat. Second, the concept of food security is discussed. Food security is defined as continuity of food supply to the whole population and unhampered access to food by all groups of the population. Food security is considered principally as a problem of short-term variability of food production and instability of imports. Food insecurity is thus measured by the size of production and consumption variability in relation to the long-term levels of consumption and production. The standard deviation and the coefficient of variation are used as indicators of the variability. Last, strategies and policies for achievement of food security are discussed. The growing food supply gap in the Arab countries implies the need to increase grain production as an element of major importance in the development of food-security programs. Proper grain policies must foresee increases of yields, reduction of post-harvest losses, and increased capacity to handle and store grain reserves. The establishment of national and regional Arab strategic grain stocks equal to the average magnitude of harvest shortfalls is recommended as one measure of short-term strategy. The long-term strategy, in turn, focuses on development of domestic agricultural production and greater cooperation among the Arab countries.     

Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts

Projections of future productivity growth rates in agriculture are an essential input for a great variety of tasks, ranging from development of an outlook for global commodity markets to the analysis of interactions between land use, deforestation, and ecological diversity. Yet solid projections for these variables have proven elusive—particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty of measuring historical total factor productivity growth. Consequently, most productivity projections are based on partial factor productivity measures that can be quite misleading. The purpose of this work is to provide worldwide forecasts of agricultural productivity growth till the year 2040 based on the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants, and nonruminant livestock. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, nonruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels in developing countries are likely to be diverging from those in developed countries.     

Link between Agricultural Assistance and International Trade

This paper investigates a central part of the argument that agricultural assistance by the United States to developing nations leads to diminished export markets for U.S. farmers. A sizeable cross section of low-income and lower-middle-income nations is used to provide statistical analyses of: (1) the link between agricultural productivity and economic performance, and (2) the link between economic performance and agricultural imports. The results show that a reasonably strong case can be made for the idea that advances in agricultural productivity are associated with long-run increases in imports of cereals and other agricultural products by less wealthy nations. The connection comes via the positive income effect of general economic development. For these countries, investments in agricultural development through successful assistance are not detrimental to U.S. farm export interests in the long run. They are generally beneficial. For middle-income nations, the case is less clear and more controversial. However, nothing in the cross-section data used suggests that farm productivity improvements in these nations is systematically threatening to U.S. agricultural trade in the long run.     

Avian influenza,non‐tariff measures and the poultry exports of China

This paper focuses on the direct impact of avian influenza outbreaks and the impact of the consequent non‐tariff measures (NTMs) on the international poultry trade. Using monthly export data from China and its 122 poultry importing countries, a random‐effect gravity model has been adopted. Emphasising the agri‐food trade in a global value chain context, the research analysis distinguishes between ‘agri‐food goods’ (mostly uncooked poultry products) and ‘processed goods’ (mostly cooked poultry products). The results show that domestic avian influenza outbreaks have a significant negative impact on a country's poultry imports compared with such outbreaks in exporting countries. Moreover, NTMs induced by avian influenza reduce the uncooked poultry trade but temporarily increase the cooked poultry trade. However, with a time‐lag, the cooked poultry trade may soon face increasing NTMs. The results also imply that developing countries that attempt to export agri‐food products to developed countries should increase and enhance processed food production.     

Production & trade structure and accession to the EC: The case of Greek agriculture

Summary

Greece's climatic and soil conditions, together with the size structure of its farms favour the production of Mediterranean‐type products, in which the country has a comparative advantage. However, the structure of agricultural production and exports has been changing, at least since 1961, when Greece became an Associate Member of the EC, with a shift from traditional crops (tobacco, cotton, olive oil and dried vine fruit), towards fruit and vegetables especially of late towards early varieties which do not coincide seasonally with EC production as well as certain “Northern” products (wheat, maize, and barley). Despite a substantial increase in livestock production, imports of meat, and dairy products have grown considerable faster than imports of other agricultural produce.

By presenting these trends, this paper attempts to show that in the post ‐ EC membership period (after 1.1.1981) developments in agricultural production and trade cannot be attributed to membership, since they had appeared long before it. This evidence also indicates that the above trends are not likely to change significantly within the EC in the future.     

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.