货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀:CIA模型与中国经验

文章通过构建一个"内生增长的CIA模型",讨论了货币供给、国民储蓄意愿以及经济增长潜力对经济增长和通货膨胀的影响:当货币供给速度变大时,经济增长率会因此降低,通货膨胀将升高;但是国民储蓄意愿和经济增长潜力比较高时,可以在货币扩张过程中保持经济快速增长,有效控制通货膨胀。由于我国的国民储蓄意愿和经济增长潜力都比较高,相应地引发通货膨胀的货币供给增长率的临界值也高,因此会出现"高货币供给-低通货膨胀"的现象。     

人口年龄结构如何影响经济失衡——理论与中国的经验分析

从人口年龄结构视角解读了中国经济"高储蓄、高投资、高顺差"的成因。研究表明,老年人口抚育负担的上扬降低了储蓄率和外贸顺差,支持了生命周期假说。但是,少儿人口抚育负担的下降却未能抑制储蓄率和外贸顺差的上扬,我们将其归因于代际间的"利他主义"和"内生化的劳动供给",当家庭中子女数量减少时,用于未来教育、婚嫁等目标性支出随之下降,反而刺激了当期消费;在家庭子女数量增加时,父母有可能选择减少支出或者选择用劳动替代闲暇。本研究的政策涵义在于培育针对劳动适龄人口新的消费热点、延迟退休年龄、完善社会保障制度。     

人口结构和储蓄:亚洲的经验证据及其对中国的意义

生命周期储蓄是对亚洲近来出现的储蓄上升与经济增长现象的一种可能的解释.根据1952-1992年间对16个亚洲国家和地区的观察,一个国家人口的年龄构成与储蓄率之间的关系在我们重新估计的结果中,还不到HIGGINS和WILLIAMSON(1997)所报告的规模的四分之一,而他们假定滞后储蓄是外生的.但是,一般经济学常识和具体检验结果都表明,滞后储蓄很可能是内生的.尽管使用多种方法来进行估计,仍然没有发现当期储蓄与年龄构成之间存在重大的依赖关系.把一群人一生的储蓄看作是他们养育孩子的替代物,并且把导致年龄构成变化的生育下降的原因放进模型中,由此就可以对亚洲人口过渡和储蓄的一般趋势作出合理解释.     

江西省人口老龄化现状及其对经济增长的相关影响分析

人口老龄化是人口发展的必然趋势.江西是一个人口大省,现阶段全省的老龄化在不断上升.面对人口老龄化所带来的对经济增长、劳动力供给、社会保险基金、储蓄和产业结构等的影响,全省要大力发展经济,提高对储蓄的转化利用,发展老龄产业,完善养老保障制度等.     

为结婚而储蓄?——来自中国家庭追踪调查①(CFPS)的经验证据

已有研究主要基于性别比失衡的竞争性储蓄动机解释了中国家庭的高储蓄之谜.文章把子女结婚这一自然事件作为处理变量,通过婚前和婚后的家庭储蓄变化识别出"婚姻效应",为竞争性储蓄动机理论和中国家庭的高储蓄之谜提供了微观证据.研究结果发现,在控制个人以及家庭特征后,相对于已婚家庭,未婚家庭储蓄显著更高.在排除地区性差异、教育储蓄动机、预防性储蓄动机和样本匹配等问题之后,未婚比已婚家庭具有更高储蓄水平的结论依然稳健.文章进一步分析识别出了城市和农村异质"婚姻效应"和婚后消费结构的变化,发现"婚姻效应"对不同收入水平的家庭都产生了影响,但"婚姻效应"对低收入家庭的消费抑制更为明显.文章的研究结果丰富了婚姻市场的竞争性储蓄动机理论.     

人口年龄结构的国别差异和全球经济失衡

全球经济失衡已成为当前国际经济的焦点问题.研究失衡,不能仅关注投资、汇率等层面的原因,还要探求失衡背后的深层原因.本文用由人口年龄结构的国别差异引起的各国储蓄和投资大小关系的不同,来解释各国经常项目的盈余状况和国际资本的流动方向,并粗略预测今后全球经济失衡分布的变动趋势.我国目前的贸易顺差其实是"人口红利"期为应对未来"养老"而在海外积攒的储蓄,在老龄化全面到来后,这些海外储蓄还会通过贸易逆差被用掉.     

居民储蓄-准货币之主源

该文的主旨是探求广义货币中之准货币部分与居民储蓄行为间的关系.该文利用分析时序数据的经济计量模型,建立和估计出城乡居民的人均消费行为关系,用以推算居民的储蓄潜力.再用居民储蓄潜力来解释银行城乡储蓄总额,最后用银行城乡储蓄总额来解释广义货币中的准货币部分.建模试验结果表明,居民人均储蓄行为具有相当的规律性,而且储蓄与准货币供给之间也存在着相当稳定的关系.该文还就利率、利率差、收入及收入不确定性等因素对居民储蓄的影响,做了各种模拟试验.     

社会保障支出对个人储蓄的影响研究

本文以1980～2006年的年度数据为样本,利用协整分析和误差修正模型分析我国社会保障支出和居民储蓄之间的关系.理论分析和经验检验结果表明,我国社会保障支出和居民储蓄之间存在着正相关的关系.这有两个原因:首先,在现阶段,社会保障支出的"挤入效应"大于"挤出效应";其次,现阶段的基金制比以前的现收现付制导致更高的社会储蓄.     

财政理论应重视对政府储蓄的研究

人们往往把储蓄与金融学的研究联系在一起。实际上,储蓄与财政分配之间也有着十分密切的关系。特别是,作为国民储蓄组成部分的政府储蓄,它与财政分配之间的联系更直接、更明显。1.政府储蓄是财政收支运动的结果。在现代经济学中,储蓄是一个含义相当广泛的概念,它是指一定时期收入中未用于消费后的部分,即储蓄等于收入减消费。依据储蓄的这一基本定义,政府取得财政收入,安排财政支出,其结果也会形成一定的储蓄,即政府储蓄。这是因为,政府的财政支出中包含有两种性质完全不同的支出:一种是经常性支出即消费性支出,另一种是资本性支出或投资性…     

农业劳动力转移与家户储蓄率上升

本文在二元经济框架下,从农业劳动力转移的角度探讨中国家户储蓄率和国民储蓄率上升的原因。为此本文建立了一般均衡模型分析家户的消费储蓄决策,将总储蓄率分解为城市居民、农民工和农民三类群体的储蓄率。由于社会保障水平和收入水平的差异,农民工的边际储蓄倾向比农民和城镇居民高。在农业劳动力向非农部门持续转移的进程中,农民工群体随着非农部门的资本积累而不断扩大,其高储蓄行为也推动了家户储蓄率和国民储蓄率的上升。     

EFFECTS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS ON THE ADEQUACY OF RETIREMENT WEALTH ACCUMULATION

This paper examines the relation between fluctuations in the aggregate value of equities and the adequacy of households’ saving for retirement. Using more recent data than most studies on this topic, we find that many and perhaps most households appear to be saving adequate amounts for retirement, and that there is almost no link between aggregate equity values and the adequacy of retirement saving. A simulated 40 percent decline in stocks has little effect on the adequacy of saving. The substantial growth in equity values and ownership in the 1980s and 1990s did not lead to a surge in the adequacy of retirement saving provisions. The results occur because equity holdings are concentrated among households with significant amounts of other wealth.     

Projected long-term demographic trends and aggregate personal saving in the United States

The potential effect of the changing age distribution of the U.S. population on the level of aggregate saving is examined. "The Modigliani-Brumberg life-cycle model predicts a relationship between age distribution and the aggregate saving ratio via the population growth rate, which affects the ratio of earner/savers to retiree-dissavers. Aging resulting from slower population growth will result in a decline in the aggregate saving rate. This paper utilizes empirical age-saving relations, together with projected long-run population age distributions, to estimate the age distribution effect on aggregate personal saving. Results predict a much smaller decline in the saving ratio than is generated by the basic life-cycle model."     

Income Distribution and Aggregate Saving: A Non‐Monotonic Relationship

Drawing on a panel of advanced economies, this paper documents a concave and non‐monotonic link between inequality and the aggregate household saving rate. We find that, at a low level of inequality, more inequality is associated with higher saving; but we also show that a negative relationship between inequality and saving prevails where inequality is high. Using different empirical approaches, we locate the turning point, where the marginal effect of inequality turns from positive to negative, at a net income Gini coefficient of around 30. Moreover, we show that the relationship between inequality and saving also depends on financial market conditions. While inequality increases saving, when credit is scarce it tends to reduce saving at high levels of credit. This paper primarily focuses on household saving, yet we also find some evidence for a non‐monotonic effect of inequality on private saving, national saving, and the current account balance.     

The time-dependent characteristics of relative mobility

Mobility is a significant supplementary piece of information when discussing the inequality of a society based on income distribution. To date, most of its characteristics require disambiguation and specification. In this paper, we will investigate the dependence of relative mobility on sampling time interval both empirically and theoretically. Using the Chinese household income data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we find that the relative mobility will initially increase with the sampling time interval and then approach a constant value. To examine this time-dependent characteristic of mobility quantitatively, we employ a money exchange model with uniform saving rate to investigate the relation between the mobility and the sampling time interval. The relation obtained from the model is similar to that of the empirical data. The convergence rate of the mobility can be described in terms of a characteristic time interval found to be solely determined by the saving rate. The higher the saving rate is, the longer the characteristic time interval is. This work can help us better understand the time-dependence of mobility.     

Chinese Saving Rates from 1953 to 2012: Trends,Compositions and Prospects

This study conducts a long‐run analysis on the trends and components of Chinese saving rates from 1953 to 2012. We identify two structural changes in aggregate saving rates around 1978 and 2001, and examine them through a decomposition analysis of the income distribution and sector‐specific saving rates. The following key findings are obtained. First, the major trends and compositions of Chinese saving rates changed markedly over the period considered, which explains the changes of aggregate saving rates with the dramatic economic transition from a planned economy to a market‐oriented economy. Second, we investigate the surge in aggregate saving rates from 2001 to 2012 based on a series of institutional factors, such as the evolving labour market, domestic economic policy adjustments and changes in external economic conditions caused by China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the 2008 global financial crisis. Finally, we present the future prospects for the high aggregate saving rates in China based on several evolving economic, demographic and policy trends. We argue that Chinese saving rates have peaked in recent years and that a declining trend is expected, which will contribute to the economic rebalancing of the country.     

中美两国可比居民储蓄率的计量:1992-2001

储蓄率是宏观经济运行中的重要指标,尤其是居民储蓄率。然而,目前中国国内使用的所有储蓄率都在不同程度上与国际惯用的储蓄率在计量方法和统计口径上不一致,因此,中国与其他国家当前的储蓄率是不可比的。本文首次使用美国NIPAs中的储蓄率计量方法和口径,重新测算了中国1992—2001年十年间的居民储蓄率,并对相应年份的美国储蓄率作适当调整,得到了目前中美最为可比的居民储蓄率。结果表明:第一,1992—2001年中美两国平均居民储蓄率的差异由25.60%降至15.87%,降低9.73个百分点,中美两国储蓄率之间并不存在普遍认为的高达30%的差异。第二,1992—2001年中国平均居民储蓄率由29.32%降至22.69%,其中,2000年和2001年的储蓄率甚至低于20%。因此,本文认为,再用30%—40%这样异常高的数据来表示中国的居民储蓄率是不合适的。     

联合外汇干预的实证研究

本文采用干预分析模型来考察日、美两国央行对日元 美元汇率进行的联合干预的效果 ,以得到外汇干预是否对汇率产生影响以及该影响能否持久的结论。研究结果表明 ,1 998年 6月 1 7日 ,美、日联合外汇干预对日元 美元汇率产生了一定的影响 ,但联合干预与非联合干预在效果上没有重大差别 ,其影响很短暂。因此 ,汇率变动的最终决定性因素 ,不是外汇干预 ,而是货币所在国国内经济、国际经济的发展状况和国际资本流动等变量的变动     

SAVING MEASURES AS ECONOMIC GROWTH INDICATORS

The decline of the U.S. saving rate during the 1980s and its potential impact on future economic growth has been the subject of considerable concern. The National Income Accounts (NIA) measures of saving are the empirical basis for the concern. However, the economics literature has soundly criticized the NIA concepts of saving and investment. Moreover, little evidence exists that the United States suffered a capital shortage during the 1980s, when it enjoyed its second longest peacetime economic expansion. This paper examines the relation of NIA and other saving measures to future real GDP. Findings indicate that no measurable relation exists between the lagged NIA saving measures and real GDP. However, findings also indicate a significant relation does exist between real GDP and the sum of personal saving from the flow-of-funds accounts plus an approximation of government saving for infrastructure purposes. Unlike the NIA saving rate, this constructed saving rate did not decline precipitously in the 1980s. Since the saving rate relevant to economic growth did not fall, the future of the U.S. economy might not be nearly so bleak as many assume.     

The relationship between income inequality and aggregate saving: an empirical analysis using cross-country panel data

If the rich save more than the poor, an increase in income inequality raises aggregate saving. We investigate whether income inequality is positively related to aggregate saving ratio by estimating a fixed-effect model based on a panel data of 48 countries for the period 1991–2010. We find evidence that aggregate saving ratio increases with income inequality using various inequality measures. In particular, the effect of income distribution on saving is greater and statistically more significant with in financially developed, rich and OECD countries. It suggests that the rich save much more than the poor under advanced financial system and in a rich country. We also find that the relationship between income inequality and saving ratio is closer in the 2000s than the 1990s. This finding may result from financial development and the high income level in the 2000s.     

货币政策工具与中介目标选择:基于法定准备金操作的研究

利率和货币量哪个更适合作为货币政策中介目标是一个很有争议的问题,目前许多文献对这个问题的研究并不涉及货币政策工具与利率以及货币量之间的关系。这样的研究实际上隐含了一个前提,即货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间存在明确的、稳定的关系,从而保证利率目标或者货币量是可控的。基于法定准备金操作的研究表明,法定准备金操作和货币量之间存在确定的关系,而和利率之间的关系是不确定的。导致利率和法定准备金操作关系不确定的主要原因,则是IS曲线斜率正负性的不确定性;同时,对现阶段中国IS曲线斜率稳定性的实证研究表明,其斜率正负性是不稳定的。因此,利率不适合作为货币政策中介目标。