RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

Do Futures Benefit Farmers?

Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market- and farm-level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizable market- and farm-level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces nonadopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share.     

THE VALUE OF FARM ANIMAL WELFARE

This paper explores further some of the ideas put forward by McInerney (1993) in his economic perspective of animal welfare. It uses a simple economic framework to consider citizens' concerns and perceptions about farm animal welfare and the production and consumption of livestock products in society. People's perceptions that certain aspects of livestock production give rise to poor farm animal welfare are a potential source of disutility for them. This disutility may be associated with people's own consumption of livestock products and/or with other people's consumption. The latter is a negative externality of consumption in society, resulting in very real indirect costs associated with livestock production. The paper discusses the need for valuing farm animal welfare, considers techniques for evaluation and highlights some of the policy issues involved.     

Trade diversion and antidumping effectiveness: insights from a residual demand model

A residual demand model is developed to predict the likely effects of an antidumping duty in the presence of trade diversion. A key insight is that the ability of an AD duty to increase the welfare of producers in the country imposing the duty hinges on the import supply elasticity for product from non‐named sources. The only instance in which this is not true is when supply for product from the named source is perfectly elastic. In this case, the welfare gain to domestic producers is maximised irrespective of the supply elasticity for imports from non‐named sources. A comparison of the residual demand model with the Armington model suggests the latter significantly understates both trade diversion and domestic producer gains from the duty.     

CAP Reforms in the 1990s and their Price and Welfare Implications: The Case of Wheat

We use a nonlinear commodity market model to assess, theoretically and empirically, the impacts of recent reforms of the CAP on prices and economic welfare in the EU. The empirical analysis is based on an aggregate structural econometric model of the EU wheat economy and its links to the rest of the world. Instability issues are also investigated. Impacts of CAP reforms on the variance of domestic and world prices are analysed and a Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate uncertainty in the model's welfare computations. Recent reforms led to a net welfare gain within the EU during the period 1993–2000. Additional budgetary costs are less than the welfare gains of consumers and producers. Producers gained as lower price support was overcompensated by additional direct payments.     

AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND MCA's: A SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how some aspects of agrimonetary system of the Common Agricultural Policy may be analysed using spatial equilibrium diagrams, modified to include foreign exchange sectors. The model analyses the effects of monetary compensatory amounts on intra-Community trade. The results are: first, when the intervention price is below the market price, both the importing and the exporting country gain in social welfare; and second, when the intervention price is effective, only the importing country gains. In each case the cost of the MCA's exceeds these welfare gains. From a budgetary viewpoint there is a trade-off between the cost of intervention buying and the cost of the trade subsidy.     

The Relationship between Animal Welfare and Economic Performance at Farm Level: A Quantitative Study of Danish Pig Producers

We propose a theoretical framework for the relationship between animal welfare and the economic performance of livestock farms. We empirically analyse this relationship based on a unique dataset of randomly sampled Danish pig herds that includes information from unannounced inspections of the compliance with the animal welfare legislation. We find large variations in economic performance and animal welfare. The relationship between these two indicators is rather weak, but tends to be slightly positive. A possible explanation for our results is that management has a major influence on both economic performance and animal welfare so that good farm managers are able to meet all animal welfare regulations, while achieving a high economic performance.     

RESEARCH PAYOFF FROM QUALITY IMPROVEMENT: THE CASE OF BACKFAT DEPTH IN PIGS

Closed-market models embodying alternative specifications of supply, demand and substitutability conditions are developed to measure the economic benefits from a research-caused improvement in quality. The models are applied to the estimation of the economic benefits from reducing backfat depth in Australian pork. A major finding is that the Australian pig industry has the potential to derive a gross research benefit of about $7 million per annum from a 10% reduction in backfat thickness in pigs. Under each of the chosen specifications, the larger share of this gain accrues to pig producers. There could be additional social gains as a result of health benefits not incorporated in consumers' valuations.     

农牧交错区苜蓿草业产业化开发研究

我国北方农牧交错区不仅是生态环境人为破坏最为严重的地区，也是土地荒漠化发展速度最快的地区。根据农牧交错区面临的主要生态问题，选择退耕还草、发展苜蓿草业，对该区生态、经济、社会的可持续发展具有重要作用。该文结合农牧交错区的实际，提出了该区苜蓿草业产业化开发的基本模式、阶段特征及基本对策。     

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced.     

转变生产消费方式诉求下的动物福利规制分析——基于防控新冠肺炎的思考

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情给中国造成了重大生命健康和经济损失,也表明了合理利用与善待动物的重要性。中国已到了关注动物福利的发展阶段,改善动物福利水平不仅是保障食品安全、突破隐性贸易壁垒障碍的要求,更是促使人们改变生产与消费习惯,进而防范动物源性传染病疫情发生的要求。中国目前已有了对动物福利进行规制的民众基础,应进一步提升民众对动物福利的认知、加大对动物福利学理及国际规制趋向的研究。在此基础上制定有中国特色、长远引导、不断完善的与动物福利相关的法规、制度和政策,从而有效防范类似新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发生。     

WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF MORE ACCURATE RATIONAL FORECAST PRICES

Models are constructed to assess the welfare effects for producers, consumers and society of producers using forecast prices based on more accurate estimates of variables causing shifts in the demand for and supply of commodities. The basic model is a stochastic cobweb model in which producers' forecast price is the rational forecast price. The model is extended for many commodities, for partial producer response to more accurate forecast prices, and to include stock holding. In terms of economic surplus, producers and consumers gain from more accurate estimates of demand shift variables, producers gain and consumers lose from more accurate estimates of supply shift variables, and in both cases there is a net society gain.     

EU Requirements for Food Safety and Quality Systems in Turkey: Determinants of Perceptions

Abstract

The European Union (EU) is one of Turkey’s most important trade partners. A large number of Turkish agri-food processors, however, are still unable to produce in accordance with the EU specifications. Furthermore, it is uncertain how Turkish food producers perceive the EU regulations. Based on a questionnaire survey of 99 Turkish agri-food enterprises from various industry subsectors and a conceptual framework including knowledge, personal and economic perspectives, this article assesses perceptions of the EU requirements regarding food safety and quality systems in the Turkish agri-food industry. The results indicate that those perceptions vary widely among the processors depending on education level, firm size, and legal form of ownership. Moreover, subjective information related to the perceptions regarding advantages, requirements, and costs of food safety and quality practices significantly contributes to the perceptions examined. The findings have manifold implications which should be taken into account when adapting Turkish legislation to reflect EU regulations.     

Dynamic Supply Response and Welfare Effects of Technological Change on Perennial Crops: The Case of Cocoa in Malaysia

Modern biotechnology will generate crops with higher yields and enhanced resistance to pests and diseases. In the case of perennial crops, the age composition of the present stand, the farmers' willingness to invest, and the yield profiles of old and new trees determine the speed of adoption of the new technology and the timing of the effects on supply and demand conditions. We adapt conventional welfare measures to account for these factors in the Assessment of research induced supply shifts. The application to cocoa in Malaysia shows that consumers and adopting producers gain and non-adopters lose. Overall, 72% of the welfare gains go to the consumers.     

Issues Affecting the U.S. Poultry Industry and International Poultry Trade

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine issues and concerns that may affect the future direction of the U.S. poultry industry and international poultry trade. Given the economic contribution of the poultry industry, it is important to have some understanding about the future direction of the industry, both at the national and international levels. To generate the information required, this study surveyed the top poultry producers in the country as well as specialists and experts in the industry. Although both the producers and specialists believe that the industry has a bright future, they also think that the rapid production growth experienced by the poultry industry in the past two decades cannot be sustained. Growth restrictions in the industry will come from a variety of sources such as environmental waste management, food safety, labor shortages, animal welfare, and increased foreign competition.     

Social Welfare and the Selection of the Optimum Hog Slaughter Weight in Quebec

What is the optimum slaughter weight? It depends from whose perspective. A dynamic systems model is built to analyze the welfare impact of alternative animal genetics, feeding program, feed quality and slaughter weight on producers, processors and the environment. The unique systems approach analyzes eight possible welfare rules and a corresponding harm function to assess animal performance within a multistakeholder context. The model results show there are significant tradeoff problems among producers, processors and the environment. The model highlights how the definition of animal performance needs to be revisited, as it has different meaning to different stakeholders in society. While performance historically was synonymous with production efficiency, with new social and political concerns, this interpretation is not universal. The model demonstrates greater complexities by broadening the set of affected parties.     

The Effect of the Northeast Dairy Compact on Producers and Consumers, with Implications of Compact Contagion

We model and measure the effects of the Northeast Dairy Compact on prices, quantities, and producer and consumer welfare, underscoring the distribution of these effects across regions and among producers and buyers. Using 1999 as a base year, simulations show that the Compact raised the farm price of milk in the Northeast by $0.45/cwt, lowered the farm price of milk in the rest of the country by $0.02/cwt, and transferred income from producers outside the Compact region and buyers in the Compact region to producers in the Compact region. Non-Compact producer losses exceeded Compact producer gains. Similar results are found for a scenario of Compact contagion—extension of the Compact to include additional states. In both cases, the Compact changed the distribution of the costs and benefits of price discrimination as practiced by milk marketing orders. The regional distribution of the Compact's welfare effects raises again the question of the organization and stability of the federal milk marketing order system.     

Divergent Environmental Regulations and Trade Liberalization

The market and nonmarket consequences of environmental regulations and of trade liberalization under different regulatory regimes are explored in the context of the NAFTA through simulation modeling of the North American sheep and lamb markets. Producers are able to shift much of the cost of regulation to domestic and foreign consumers and thus gain from regulation. In the cases investigated, nonmarket effects are unlikely to reverse the sign of market gains or losses, and "level playing field" regulations may or may not be preferred.     

GAINS FROM DEREGULATION? AN EMPIRICAL TEST FOR EFFICIENCY GAINS IN THE NORWEGIAN FISH FARMING INDUSTRY

A cost function is used to quantify potential sources of gains from deregulation of the Norwegian salmon farming industry, an industry that has been heavily regulated in order to achieve a regional dispersion of production and profits along the entire coastline. It now seems to be widely recognised that the regulations have led to cost inefficiencies. A region-augmented cost function with data from 282 fish farms for 1988 is used to estimate regional productivity differences, i.e. differences in the total cost of producing salmon in one region compared to another. It is found that the potential gains from deregulation may be substantial.     

A cost-benefit analysis of a public labelling scheme of fish quality

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method capable of evaluating the economic welfare for quality graded fish products using the hedonic price method for plaice in Denmark. Today, no labelling scheme exists for the final consumers of different qualities of fish. A scheme only exists at the first hand market. On this basis, a general applicable, theoretical and empirical method is developed to compare the costs and benefits of the hypothetical choice between the total absence of labelling and the presence of a public labelling scheme, which fully informs consumers on the quality and simultaneously allows the producers to differentiate prices between quality grades. It is shown that the economic welfare associated with a public labelling scheme is at minimum €263,000. Sensitivity analysis shows that this result is robust. The policy implication is that a public labelling scheme should not be implemented as the demand and cost functions have low elasticities, implying that the welfare gain is low.