SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM AND PRICE VARIABILITY: AN APPLICATION TO THE FALL POTATO INDUSTRY*

The purpose of this paper is to show that spatial price equilibrium models with stochastic supply functions can be solved and that such solutions contain some interesting information. The solution procedure suggested is relatively uncomplicated, requiring only quadratic programming routines available to most researchers. Estimates of price distributions which result from this approach can be quite useful for price forecasting and for decision making at firm and industry levels. The importance of the additional information obtained by solving these models stochastically is discussed in connection with a amplified model of the United States fall potato industry. Results of the application reveal that changing production patterns have given rise to substantive shifts in annual prices distributions in important consumption areas. EQUILIBRE ET VARIATIONS DANS LES PRIX DE PRODUCTION DES POMMESDE TERRE D'AUTOMNE - Cette communication a pour objet de démontrer qu'il y a moyen d'établir un équilibre des prix en function des approvisionnements de denrées et que les solutions possibles contiennent plusieurs éléments intéressants. La solution proposée est relativement simple et s'obtient par la methode de programmation quadratique qu'utilisent constamment la plupart des chercheurs. Les données auxquelles on arrive à l'aide de cette méthode permettent d'établir des projections de prix qui ont lew utilité tant au niveau des entreprises qu'à celui de l'ensemble de ce secteur de l'économie. Pour bien faire comprendre la valeur des renseignements additionnels obtenus par cette méthode, qui est basée sur les prix et les approvisionnements, on recourt, à titre d'exemple, à une analyse simplifiée de la situation telle qu'elle existe dans le secteur de la production des pommes de terre d'automne, aux Etat-Unis. Il s'avère, en somme, que les transformations qui se produisent au niveau de la production influent de façon radicale sur les prix qui sont obtenus chaque année dans les grands centres de consummation.     

THE VALUE OF FARM ANIMAL WELFARE

This paper explores further some of the ideas put forward by McInerney (1993) in his economic perspective of animal welfare. It uses a simple economic framework to consider citizens' concerns and perceptions about farm animal welfare and the production and consumption of livestock products in society. People's perceptions that certain aspects of livestock production give rise to poor farm animal welfare are a potential source of disutility for them. This disutility may be associated with people's own consumption of livestock products and/or with other people's consumption. The latter is a negative externality of consumption in society, resulting in very real indirect costs associated with livestock production. The paper discusses the need for valuing farm animal welfare, considers techniques for evaluation and highlights some of the policy issues involved.     

AN APPLICATION OF THE STAPLE THEORY TO SONORA, MEXICO*

The role of primary exports in the economic development of a country or region has been subject to much debate. The “staple theory” has been proposed as an explanation of the beneficial effect of primary exports on the economic development of Canada and the United States. However, one authority argues that the staple theory is applicable only to the special case of a new underpopulated country. This paper shows that primary exports have stimulated development in the state of Sonora, Mexico. Data showing the increase in primary production and exports between 1950 and 1960 are linked to the increase in manufacturing employment in industries producing inputs for primary production, industries processing primary products, and industries producing products to satisfy increases in final demand. The role of government policies, institutional arrangements, and the nature of the production functions for primary products are examined in an effort to determine the impact of primary exports on manufacturing activity. This study illustrates that the staple theory provides insight into the development or lack of development of all countries exporting primary products. L'IMPORTANCE DES EXPLOITATIONS DE BASE DANS LE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMQUE: ?APPLICATION DE LA “THEORIE DES DENREES PRINCIPALES” DANS ?ETAT DE SONORA AU MEXIQUE - Le rôle des exportations de base dans le développement économique ?un pays ou ?une région a fait le sujet de bien des débats, La “théorie des denrées principales” a été proposée comme une explication de ?effet avantageux des exportations de base sur le développement économique du Canada et des États-Unis. Toutefois, une autorité prétend que la théorie des denrées principales ne s'applique qu'au cas particulier ?un nouveau pays sous-peuplé. Le présent exposé démontre quelles exportations de baseont stimulilé développement de ?étal de Sonora au Mexique. Des données indiquant ?augmen tation de la production et des exportations de base entre 1950 et 1960 sont liées à?avance de ?emploi manufacturier dans les industries produisant des intrants pour la production de base, pour les industries qui préparent des produits de base et pour les industries qui produisent des marchandises pour satisfaire aux demandes accrues de produits finis. Le rôle des politique! gouvemementales, des accords institutionnels et la nature des fonctions de la production pour les produits de base sont examinés afin de déterminer ?effet des exportations de base sur ?activité manufacturière. Cette étude démontre que la théorie des denrées principales fournit un aperçu du développement ou du manque de développement des pays qui exponent des produits de base.     

THE CONCEPT OF EFFECTIVE SUBSIDY AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CANADIAN FLOUR MILLING INDUSTRY*

The export subsidy has been a perennial bone of contention to competing exporters of various commodities in international trade, particularly in agricultural trade. A typical example is the world trade in flour. Export subsidies on flour exports by large competitors are generally thought to be one of the main causes of the decline in the Canadian share of the world flour market. Previous studies have been confined to an analysis of nominal subsidy rates on flour; quantifications are needed to estimate the effectiveness of the subsidies in fuller terms. Therefore, it is desirable to develop an appropriate concept for treating export subsidies explicitly. The present study attempts to develop a model to estimate the effectiveness of export subsidies net of input distortion so as to arrive at “the effective rate of subsidy.” Then, the mode! so developed is applied to the U.S. and Canadian exports of flour. The results show that Canada had negative effective rates of subsidy throughout the years 1960-61 to 1969-70 while the U.S. rates remained positive during this entire period. These estimations provide quantification of the disadvantage caused for Canadian flour exports by export subsidies on flour by large competitors. A fin ?étudier explictement les primes ?exporiations ont Aeté une source continuelle de mé-sentente entre les exponateurs compétitifs des diverses marchandises au sein du marché international. Ceci est paniculièremeni vrai en ce qui a trait au marché agricole. Un exemple lypique est le marché mondial des farines. ?on croit que i'une des principals causes de la baisse de la part Canadienne dans le marché mondial des farines sont les primes ?exporiations accordées aux gros compétiteurs. Les études précédenles furenl limitées à?analyse de taux nominal de subventions sur les farines; des estimations quan-titatives sont nécessaires afin ?évaluer ?efficacile des subventions en termes plus précis. Done, it est necessaire de développer un concept approprté afin ?étudier les primes ?exporiations explicitement. La préseme étude tente de développer un modèle ?évaluation de ?efficacité des primes ?exporiations libres de loutes déformations afin ?obtenir “un taux efficace de subvention.” Ce modèle est alors appliqué aux exportalions Américaines el Canadiennes de farine. Les résultats démontrent que le Canada possèdait des “taux efficaces de subventions” négalifs pendant les années 1960-61 à 1969-70 el que les taux Américains demeurerent positifs durant la même période. Ces résultats nous donnent la dimension du désavantage causé aux exportalions Canadiennes de farine par les primes ?exporiations accordees aux gros compétiteurs.     

TESTING OLIGOPOLISTIC AND OLIGOPSONISTIC BEHAVIOUR: AN APPLICATION TO THE US MEAT-PACKING INDUSTRY

This paper extends the conjectural approach in industrial organisation to the analysis of imperfections in output and factor markets. Starting from the specification of a production function, the econometric analysis is based on the formulation and estimation of a simultaneous-equation model consisting of a production function, first-order conditions associated with factor employment, and two conjectural elasticities to parameterise the industry's oligopoly and oligopsony equilibria. As an example, we provide an application to the US meat-packing industry. Our results suggest that the industry exercises market power in both the output (meat) market and the factor (live animal) market.     

UNDERINVESTMENT AND TIMBER RIGHTS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE EARLY TASMANIAN AND VICTORIAN TIMBER INDUSTRIES*

This paper distinguishes between the hypothesis that the Victorian government developed a reputation for easy renewal of timber rights, so that the lack of clearly defined site sizes and the short-term nature of these rights did not matter, and the hypothesis that tenure and site size as written in law was the major determinant. A model of a firm's investment choice when there is uncertain tenure is developed to examine the effect of changes in the tenure prospect on capital intensity. The predictions of this model are then used to assess the competing hypotheses with reference to data on capital labour ratios and legislation regarding tenure and site size laws in Victoria and Tasmania from 1890 to 1927.     

UNDERWRITING ASSISTANCE TO THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY — AN APPLICATION OF OPTION PRICING THEORY

For the ten crop seasons 1979-80 to 1988-89, returns to producers in the Australian wheat industry were underwritten by a government-guaranteed price floor. Similar schemes operate in other rural industries (dairy, apples and pears, dried fruits). Although the underwriting provisions have only been triggered once (in the 1986-87 season), the provision of this scheme has acted to reduce the risk normally associated with returns to producers of wheat in all years of its operation. This reduction in risk has been granted free-of-charge by the Commonwealth Government. The guaranteed price can be viewed as a put option taken out by the Government on behalf of growers — it gives growers the option to sell to the Australian Wheat Board at this floor price. The aim of this paper is to apply to this underwriting arrangement the Black-Scholes formula for valuing options, in order to estimate the cost that growers would otherwise have had to pay to obtain cover (through put options) equivalent to the guaranteed price. We also estimate the magnitude of this form of assistance to the industry, which (until now) has not been taken into account unless the returns to growers fell below the guaranteed price.     

FORECASTING SAWNTIMBER CONSUMPTION: THE APPLICATION OF AN END-USE MODEL*

A multi-equation end-use model is used to analyse the consumption of sawn-timber in Australia. The forecasting ability of the model is evaluated. Simulations of the model are reported and implications for policy are discussed.     

ESTIMATION OF SOCIAL WELFARE WEIGHTS IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE CASE OF GREEK COTTON

This paper provides a welfare analysis of the Greek cotton market and obtains an estimate of the distributional weights implicit in the postulated welfare function of agricultural policy makers. The estimate of that weight depends, as might be expected, on the elasticity of supply and the difference between the support price and the market price. For the period covered, the welfare of Greek cotton producers was weighted about ten per cent more than that of taxpayers.     

动物疫病风险对规模猪场数智技术应用的影响

[目的]研究动物疫病风险对规模生猪养殖场数智技术应用的影响,对推动畜牧业转型升级、提升农业现代化水平具有重要意义。[方法]文章基于全国15个省区569份规模生猪养殖场调研数据,对我国规模生猪养殖场数智技术应用现状进行了统计分析,并构建似不相关模型分析了动物疫病风险对生猪养殖场数智技术应用的影响。[结果]（1）超过半数的规模养殖场已应用数智技术,其中精准饲喂环节的应用水平最高,环境监测环节的应用水平最低;（2）动物疫病风险会显著促进养殖场在精准饲喂、健康监测、环境监测3个环节应用数智技术,对洗消管理环节的影响不显著;（3）受教育水平、认知水平、养殖规模、生猪品种和产品出口对多个环节的数智技术应用有显著正影响,养殖场年限则有显著负影响。[结论]政府应多措并举,着力提高市场研发适配疫病环境和转型需求的数智技术;制定差异化的生猪养殖场数智技术帮扶政策;构建数智技术应用推广体系,提高养殖者对数智技术的认知水平和转型意愿。     

中国生猪产业研究的热点演化与前沿分析

目的 生猪产业是我国历来农业经济研究的重要内容。文章旨在对生猪产业的研究进行全面分析,从多个角度分析中国生猪产业的发展与现状,并揭示研究热点的演变以及预测未来趋势。方法 基于CiteSpace与VOSviewer两款文献计量软件,对CNKI期刊数据库中1 783篇北大核心与CSSCI来源论文进行定量分析。结果 （1）近30年生猪产业研究的发展脉络依次为产能提升与市场治理、产业调整提质增效阶段和绿色健康转型3个阶段;有关生猪价格形成与波动以及猪肉质量安全两个主题在研究的准备、崛起、成熟期均保持较高热度,并且生猪价格形成与波动主题是高频引用与下载论文的重要来源。（2）核心作者与机构合作网络均呈现“核心—外围”特征,作者、机构之间的合作关系并不紧密,他们主要以“地缘”与“学缘”的方式合作。（3）同一机构的产业技术创新能力影响其产业经济研究水平。（4）陈福生是生猪产业跨学科研究较有影响力的学者。结论 （1）未来作者间与机构间需要加强“跨学缘”“跨地缘”合作,提升研究效率。（2）拥有技术优势的机构可加强机构内跨学科合作以提升整体的学术影响力。（3）未来可在定性与定量研究的基础上,进一步科学融入跨学科方法开展对生猪市场结构变化与社会福利、生产经营组织低碳决策行为、生猪种业振兴等前沿趋势研究。     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE*

A simple model is developed relating the debt and asset portfolio of the farm to the production decision, which leads to a small non-linear system of equations. The system is estimated with time-series cross-sectional data from Australian broadacre agriculture using non-linear three-stage least squares. This gives a new method of estimating risk aversion coefficients by using actual behaviour of farmers in a realistic economic environment, rather than games played in artificial situations. Australian farmers are found to be risk averse, and the partial coefficient of risk aversion decreases with wealth and increases with income. The results are consistent with the results of studies by Binswanger in India and elsewhere using a completely different method. This consistency suggests that the partial risk aversion coefficient is a relatively robust measure of attitudes to risk.     

THE CAPACITY OF THE N.S.W. PIG MARKET TO ABSORB POSSIBLE INCREASES IN NORTH COAST PIG PRODUCTION*

Likely changes in gross income to farmers on the north coast of N.S.W. from an expansion of pig production are considered in the light of estimated demand conditions and the forecast future production of grain fed pigs in inland areas. Price elasticity of demand for pigmeat is estimated to be only slightly greater than unity; prospects for future expansion in inland areas are favourable given the strong direct relation found between pig production and wheat acreage and the low estimated elasticity of supply of 0.7; hence it is concluded expansion of milk-fed pig production would do little to solve the farm problem on the north coast. Pig numbers in coastal areas are found to be mainly determined by pig prices and coastal production of butter in previous periods; elasticity of supply is estimated to be O.5. In the demand analysis the importance of the level of migration as a determinant of the demand for pork is highlighted.     

THE STRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS OF INDIVIDUAL PERCEPTIONS TO SOCIAL CHANGE IN WESTERN CANADIAN COMMUNITIES*

This paper is concerned with some of the problems thai may arise from the proposed large-scale abandonment of thousands of miles of railroad branch-lines in Western Canada. One hundred and sixty communities, located in the Provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, all of which are located on railroad lines that may be abandoned, were selected for study. The first part of the paper describes the procedures used to analyze the structure of these communities. A factor analysis was performed on census variables, and the results were used to build a typology of community differentiation. Forty-four percent of the communities were found to have highly differentiated structures, while the remaining 56 percent had a low degree of structural differentiation. This led to the formulation of the following hypothesis: The disruptive effects of railroad abandonment, as perceived by community residents and as presented in their responses to the threat of abandonment, will vary inversely with the amount of community structural differentiation. This hypothesis and other hypotheses related to perceptions were tested with a mailed questionnaire on a sample of 95 respondents from a representative sample of the communities. Two situational variables, representing the degree of involvement in community social networks, were used as controls: length of residence in the community and amount of participation in community affairs. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that community structure remains as an important determinant of individual's perceptions, although the situational variables, particularly residence, exert an influence also. The relationship between the structural level and individual level variables is discussed, and a case is made for the continued use of such macro-level analyses as that of community structure. Cet article traile de quelques unes des conséquences possibles du projet de fer-meture de milliers de milles de lignes de chemin de fer secondaires dans ?Ouest du Canada. ?élude a été faite dans cent soixante communautés du Manitoba el de la Saskatchewan, communautés qui sonl loules situées sur les parcours ferroviaires que ?onprojelle defermer. Dans la premiere parlie de ?article, on explique les méthodes utilisées pour analyser les structures de communautés. A partir ?une analyse factorielle de variables du recensement, ?on arrive à une typologie permetiant une classification des communautés. Quarante-quaire pour cent des communautés se montraient fortement struciurées: dans les aulres–cinquanle-six pour cent–//n'y avail qu'un degré moindre de differentiation structurale. Ceci nous mène à?hypothèse suivanle: Les effets nocifs de la fermelure des chemins de fer reflétés dans la perception des habitants el dans leur reaction a sa menace, varient en relation inverse au degré de differentiation communautaire. Ceile hypothèse, ainsi que ?aulres, furent incorporées dans un questionnaire envoyé par courrier à un échantillon de quatre-vingt quinze répondants résidant dans des communautés sélectionnees par hazard. Deux variables contextuelles opérationalisant le niveau ?intégration de ?individu au.x-réséaux sociaux communautaires nous servenl de contrôle: la durée de résidence et le niveau de participation active dans les affaires communautaires. L'analyse des données confirme ?hypothèse que la structure communaulaire est une variable fort importanle pour la perception de ?individu, bien qu'il soil evident que les variables contextuelles, surtout la durée de residence, exercent, elles aussi, une influence incontestable. Le lien iheorique enlre les variables du niveau structural et celles du niveau individuel est discuté ainsi que le besoin de cominuer ?analyse de structure communaulaire en tant qu'analyse macro-sociologique.     

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY COMPOUND FEED SECTOR: AN APPLICATION TO FRANCE

This paper develops a model of the European Community compound feed sector capable of explaining demand for feed ingredients, and the output demand and prices for compound feeds. The adopted framework rests upon the use of duality theory to represent the optimising production decisions of compound feed firms. In addition, an appropriate methodology is suggested to capture the rapid expansion in the consumption of compound feeds in the European Community and their adoption by livestock producers. The model is then applied to the French compound-feed sector using annual time-series data stretching over the period 1962–1980.     

以畜牧业工业化推进畜牧业产业化

论述了畜牧业工业化的内涵,包括畜禽产品加工化,生产与经营方式工业化,与畜牧业相关产业工业化;提出推进畜牧业工业化的战略意义和推进畜禽养殖规模化、产品加工成品化等4条以畜牧业工业化推进畜牧业产业化的战略措施。