LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

WELFARE AND TRADE EFFECTS OF DEFICIENCY PAYMENTS

This paper investigates the welfare implications of deficiency payment programmes for large, open economies. Illustrative calculations of the welfare effects of such programmes for the U.S. wheat market are made for 1978 and 1981.     

THE INFLUENCE OF THE AGRI-MONETARY SYSTEM ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN THE EC: THE CASE OF SUGAR

It is hypothesised that the mechanics of the agri-monetary system impose shocks on EC agricultural markets which influence the Community's agricultural trade flows. A model illustrating links between agri-monetary changes and trade flows of sugar is presented. Empirical tests suggest that agri-monetary changes influence the volume and timing of sugar trade. Hypotheses relating the strength of this influence to self-sufficiency and other factors specific to Member States are discussed, as are the welfare costs of agri-monetary trade distortions. Although these welfare costs are unlikely to spark agrimonetary reform, they could be given consideration in the reform made inevitable by the Single European Market.     

STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE OF THE UK FOOD AND DRINK INDUSTRIES

This paper analyses the structural characteristics of the food and drink industries and assesses their recent economic performance. Although classified among the less technologically intensive group of British manufacturing industries, the food and drink industries are found to share many of the features of the more technologically intensive group, such as product differentiation, product diversification and advertising intensity. They are also found to have achieved above-average growth in labour and total factor productivity through expansion in size, capital accumulation and shedding of labour.     

THE DISINCENTIVE EFFECT OF FOOD-FOR-WORK ON LABOUR SUPPLY AND AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION AND DIVERSIFICATION IN ETHIOPIA

Food-for-work (FFW) as a form of food aid has been criticised for its many disincentive effects. This paper investigates alleged disincentive effects of food-for-work (FFW) on labour supply and agricultural intensification and diversification in one district of Ethiopia, using a ranking exercise and a small survey of farmer opinion. Despite the popularity of FFW as a source of income, careful project design meant that disincentives were largely avoided. In particular, the take-up of FFW was restricted, by a combination of self-targeting and community based administrative rationing; and agricultural intensification and diversification were encouraged directly through extension programmes.     

THE SUPPLY OF NON-DEGRADED AGRICULTURAL LAND*

Profitability increases because of favourable product or factor price changes provide incentives for profit-maximising farmers, who use soils in conjunction with other cooperant inputs, to increase their investment in the preservation of soil-quality, whenever there exist economically viable technologies for preserving soils. However, when such technologies do not exist, regardless of whether farmers utilise soils as non-renewable or renewable resources, such profitability increases are associated with a long-run deterioration in soil quality.     

WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE NEW GATT ROUND

World agricultural markets are grossly imbalanced with supplies running well ahead of demand at current depressed world prices. At the heart of the problem is the high protection given to agriculture in many OECD countries. In particular, price supports to farmers are too high and incentives to maintain or expand production too great. The success of the Uruguay Round in achieving greater liberalisation of trade in agriculture will depend on the willingness of participating governments to undertake significant reforms of domestic agricultural policies, with the aim of reducing overall protection to agriculture and switching support measures away from direct producer price support to income aid for specific disadvantaged producers. In some countries, this notion has run up against complex politico-social and structural objectives, which prevent these countries from agreeing to any significant price reduction. Price support policies, however, have been ineffective in the long run in retarding the outmigration of labour from agriculture. Measures involving only quantitative controls on production will be useful in the short run to reduce surpluses but will not solve the underlying problems which the new GATT Round must address.     

AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND THE URUGUAY ROUND*

With the Punta del Este Declaration, agriculture was accorded prominence in the GATT negotiations and, for the first time, national support policies were on the agenda. In this paper, the progress of the negotiations on agriculture is reviewed in an attempt to understand the factors which shaped the final outcome and to assess the likely impact of the round on liberalising agricultural trade. Although the immediate impact is likely to be modest, the round will provide longer term benefits to agricultural trade through the extension of the GATT rules-based system to agriculture. The framework which has been laid should provide a sound basis for future negotiations. Within the multilateral framework, the pace of change is a function of the willingness of all parties to compromise and this is evident in the Uruguay Round's outcome which reflects the European Union's agricultural reform agenda.     

THE ELASTICITY OF AGGREGATE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY: ESTIMATES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Annual time series data for the period 1950-51 through 1975-76 are used to estimate the price elasticity of aggregate Australian agricultural supply using two methods. The short-run elasticity is estimated to be highly inelastic but it has been increasing through time. The preferred estimate of the long-run elasticity is in the relatively inelastic range and it has also been increasing through time. Some implications of these results for intersectoral resource flows and compensatory assistance, the cost-price squeeze, the effects of the mineral boom and monetary policy are discussed.     

ASSESSING SOME EFFECTS OF INFLATION ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

The time pattern of effects of inflation on prices received, prices paid, asset returns, and real incomes of different members of the agricultural sector is described. In the long run it is argued that inflation will have very small, if any, effects on relative prices or real incomes. For the short run, which may be several years, it is likely that some prices will rise more slowly than others and cause income losses. Included in the group of losers are producers of export products.     

AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING INDUSTRIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOUR*

Agricultural processing industries are sometimes recommended as being particularly suitable for industrialisation programmes in developing countries. In this article, however, it is argued that such a general statement does not appear to be warranted. In a short survey some of the criteria are first discussed by which suitability of agro-processing industries can be judged. It is concluded that the contribution to development objectives of some feasible sub-sectors can easily be overestimated. It also appears that the wide disparity of characteristics of sub-sectors that belong to the category of agricultural processing industries necessitate careful examination of individual sub-sectors before judgement as to their attractiveness for developing countries is pronounced. In order to illustrate this point evaluations of the cocoa and leather industries are briefly discussed.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK AND CROPPING INDUSTRIES: A STUDY OF INTENTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS*

Most of the supply elasticity estimates reported for Australian agriculture are derived from equations estimated using time series data and incorporating ad hoc assumptions about price expectations. The authors' aim is to compare previously obtained supply elasticity estimates with those derived using theoretically more acceptable survey data on both producers' intentions and price expectations. Surveys were conducted in three regions in N.S.W., namely, the Southern Tablelands, the South-West Slopes and a portion of the Western Division centred on Cobar. The results of the research show that there are no major differences between the supply elasticities derived using the traditional time series approach and those obtained using the survey data. This finding is reassuring, given the cost of collecting survey data.     

EC AGRICULTURAL SURPLUSES AND BUDGET CONTROL

Attempts to limit the EC agricultural budget have focussed on the problem of controlling surpluses of agricultural products. An alternative strategy is to impose cash limits directly on specific agricultural support expenditures. This paper shows that the coresponsibility measures favoured by the Commission could, with minor modification, become vehicles for cash limit control of support expenditure, but the penalties for over-production would have to be more severe than in the past. Cash-limiting policy options are compared in terms of producer incentives and their effect on producer revenues.     

WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND MERCHANDISING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 1970s*

"There is going to be a continuing great need for food." In a wide review of Canadian and world markets, the author makes a case for an opportunity-oriented agriculture, geared to the developing and changing market potentials of the 1970s. Canadian and world market potentials for the 1970s present attractive prospects, but the future will only be as bright as agriculture and its institutions are flexible to adapt to the emerging environment.
LES POSSIBILITÉS DE DÉVELOPPEMENT DU COMMERCE MONDIAL AGRICOLE AU COURS DE LA PROCHAINE DÉCENNIE –"Il y a un besoin croissant de biens alimentaires." Au cours ďune large revue des marchés canadiens et mondiaux, ľauteur étudie les chances ďune agriculture orientée, axée sur le développement et le changement des marchés pour les années 1970. Les possibilités de développement des marchés canadiens et mondiaux au cours de la prochaine décennie apparaissent favorables, à condition toutefois que ľagriculture et ses institutions s'adaptent au nouvel environnement.