Policy and competitiveness of agroforestry-based technologies for maize production in Cameroon: An application of policy analysis matrix

Questions have been raised about the ecological consequences and economic sustainability of exclusive reliance on chemical fertilizers for the rapidly expanding maize production across sub-Saharan Africa. Alternative agroforestry-based natural resource management technologies have been developed for farmers. This paper applies the policy analysis matrix (PAM) to analyze the social profitability of agroforestry-based technologies for maize production in the highland savanna zone of Cameroon, and the impacts of policy shifts on the financial competitiveness of maize production under these technologies. The paper shows that maize production under agroforestry-based systems has high comparative advantage.     

Profitability analysis of foodgrain in the Sudan's irrigated agricultural sector

This paper discusses the situation of irrigated sorghum and wheat with respect to their financial and economic profitability and international competitiveness in use of domestic resources, in light of declared government policy which emphasizes shifting from traditional rainfed sector to irrigated sector for production of staple foodgrain. Domestic resource cost analysis has been employed using official and shadow exchange rates. Measures of domestic resource cost ratio, international value added, international competitiveness, nominal and effective protection coefficients were also estimated. Results indicate that the economic profitability has been significantly higher than the financial one due mainly to variability in international prices, yields and overvalued exchange rates; but devaluation of the currency is not a sufficient condition for paying higher prices to farmers.     

No-till technology: benefits to farmers and the environment? Theoretical analysis and application to Finnish agriculture

We assess theoretically and empirically the private profitabilityand social desirability of conventional tillage and no-tillwhen crop yields, production costs and nutrient and herbiciderunoff damages are taken into account. Based on Finnish experimentaldata, no-till provides higher social and private profit thanconventional tillage for barley but not for oats and wheat,for which the production cost advantage of no-till does notcompensate for lower yields in the private optimum. As regardssocial returns, no-till provides slightly better overall environmentalperformance but, given the existing valuation of nutrient andherbicide runoff damage, this is not enough to give no-tillan advantage in oats and wheat cultivation. Thus, the key factorsdetermining the private and social profitability of no-tilland conventional tillage are yields and production costs ratherthan environmental performance.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Profitability,efficiency and comparative advantage of African cattle meat and milk production: the case of trypanotolerant village cattle production

Trypanosomiasis is a major constraint to increased food production in Africa as it limits livestock production and mixed farming over an area of 10 million km². The use of African trypanotolerant breeds of cattle is one approach to control trypanosomiasis that is being given increasing attention. This paper examines under what circumstances trypanotolerant village cattle enterprises can be economically viable in regions of origin and areas of introduction. On-going production is analysed in four countries using cost-benefit analyses. Comparative advantage and subsidies received are also estimated. Results indicate that resources for trypanotolerant cattle production are efficiently allocated as the sector has a comparative advantage and contributes effectively to the national welfare. Financial returns to producers are attractive and by comparing social and private prices important constraints are identified to improve profitability.     

Impact of domestic content requirement on the US tobacco and cigarette industries

Using a log-linear equilibrium displacement model we quantify the impact of the recent domestic tobacco content requirement on US cigarette manufacturing. We investigate effects on US growers and manufacturers, and competing tobacco imports. The policy increased domestic use of US-grown tobacco, but induced a small negative output effect. Tobacco imports decreased substantially. The paper also discusses the political–economic incentives for US manufacturers to comply with such policies. The political cooperation between US growers and manufacturers decreases the opposition of the latter to protectionist policies championed by the former.     

The Effects of Maize Market and Policy Reforms on Price Discovery and Competitiveness in Zimbabwe, 1991–1997

Abstract

Maize is Zimbabwe's staple food. An adequate supply of maize is essential to food security and domestic stability. A series of droughts and government mismanagement of the economy led to a maize production and food security problem in the 1980s. Zimbabwe's maize marketing system was transformed dramatically from a government monopoly to a competitive market system in which prices are determined by market forces in the 1990s. This paper examines the steps that Zimbabwe took towards maize market reform and the benefits of that reform. The movement to a competitive market led to formation of a commodity exchange to improve price discovery and increase price transparency. De-regulation has increased entry and competitiveness from new private sector hammer millers and traders. Farmers, millers, and traders face new profit opportunities and new price and financial risks that have increased management responsibilities. Consumers enjoy lower cost maize meal products and more convenient service. The benefits of the 1991–1997 reforms indicate what could be achieved in the long run if prices are determined by the market, rather than by the government.     

开放条件下我国大豆产业发展

入世以来,我国农业对外开放不断扩大,在资源条件与生产规模制约和缺乏有效的调控与监管手段的共同作用下,大豆进口和外资进入对国内生产造成了过度挤压和打压,直接影响到国内大豆产业的健康和可持续发展。必须对大豆产业进行准确定位,在尽可能发挥自身比较优势、最大限度增强竞争力的同时,切实加大对大豆产业的国内支持和产业补偿,加强对国际市场的监测预警以及对外资监管。     

Food insecurity,income inequality,and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture

I would like to argue in this article that in the process of economic development in land‐poor countries in Asia, agriculture faces three distinctly different problems: food insecurity, sectoral income inequality, and the declining food self‐sufficiency associated with the declining comparative advantage in agriculture at the high‐income stage. Massive imports of food grains to Asia, if they occur, will aggravate the world food shortage, which will have significant implications for the poverty incidence in the world. I argue that in order to avoid such a tragedy, Asia should expand farm size to reduce labor cost by adopting large‐scale mechanization, sub‐Saharan Africa should realize a green revolution in grain production, and Latin America should further expand its grain production capacity.     

Total factor productivity change in China's grain production sector: 1980–2018

This study analyses changes in total factor productivity (TFP) of grains as an aggregate commodity and major grain crops including rice, wheat, and corn, using pooled provincial and time-series data from 1980 to 2018 for China. Results show that the growth of TFP in the grain sector was driven by technical improvements. Moreover, the grain output and wheat production benefited more from TFP growth, whereas the growth in the usage of inputs drove the growth in rice and corn production. Findings also indicate that the laissez-faire market-oriented policy led to a dramatic fall in output while the intervention-led policy resulted in a substantial rise in output, but neither of them fostered the growth of productivity. Conversely, the incentive-led policy in a market-oriented environment that raised the comparative profitability in grain production promoted the growth in both output and productivity in the grain sector. As the comparative advantage shifts away from agriculture in China, an appropriate support is thus necessary to stimulate farmers' incentive in growing grain crops.     

International competitiveness of Turkish agriculture: a case for horticultural products

This paper defines competitiveness as the ability of a country to increase its share of domestic and export markets, especially when they have a comparative advantage in a product and can produce at a lower opportunity cost. This paper briefly covers the theoretical information on this topic and provides empirical evidence of how domestic resource cost (DRC) can determine international competitiveness. A country is said to have a comparative advantage in the production of tradable goods if that country's production is efficient; if not, then it has a comparative disadvantage. The concept of comparative advantage has two meanings: The first definition states that efficiency of production is compared to two or more trading nations, and when the nations with the lowest opportunity costs are relatively more efficient, they have a comparative advantage. The other meaning of comparative advantage refers to the efficiency of different kinds of production within the domestic economy, which are compared in terms of earnings or savings of a unit of foreign exchange. Turkey seems to have a comparative advantage in plant products that do not exhibit economies of scale and are relatively labour-intensive, i.e. fruits and vegetables eliminating border and non-tariff barriers to trade in agriculture would allow both sides to exploit their comparative advantages better.     

A comparative analysis of rice–wheat systems in Indian Haryana and Pakistan Punjab

Intensive irrigated rice–wheat production systems have converted the north-west Indo-Gangetic Plains into South Asia's cereal basket. Their strategic importance is undermined by a slowdown in productivity growth linked to the degradation of soil and water resources. Findings from farm surveys are used to examine contrasts and similarities between rice and wheat farms, cultivation practices, productivity, and profitability in the rice–wheat belt of India's Haryana State and Pakistan's Punjab province. In Haryana average wheat and paddy yields are markedly higher, but the yield advantage is offset by higher total production costs, resulting in lower private returns. The diverging institutional environment including varying levels of intervention in produce and input markets contributed to the evolution of the Pakistani production model as relatively ‘medium input–medium output’ and the Indian production model as ‘high input–high output’. The study reiterates the need to reinvigorate productivity growth and to reduce production costs in these intensive cereal production systems while conserving natural resources such as water and limiting negative environmental impacts. The study however also raises questions about the future of current rice–wheat systems.     

Land rents as a criterion for regionalization—The case of wheat growing in Croatia

The paper explores and tests one of the contemporary principles of economic regionalization of agriculture by using differential land rents in wheat production as a model. The analysis is based upon the assumption that differential rents could serve as a valid principle for regional planning, particularly differential rent I. On the basis of the food self-sufficiency principle declared by the Rome Declaration on World Food Security, the model assesses the economic justification of the Croatian wheat incentives system in relation to wheat production potentials in the counties, starting from those with high potential (the most favourable agroecological conditions for wheat production) towards the counties with low potential, to the level of self-sufficiency as a long-term Croatian strategic vision.The model shows that Croatia can meet its requirements for industrial wheat processing at the level of cumulative farmland areas of three counties, while total consumption can be covered by production of eight counties. This model compromises the fundamental principle of regional economics of wheat production, because up to 2003 incentives were given for 78,000 ha more than what was economically justified for wheat production intended for industrial processing, i.e. for 19,000 ha for total wheat demand. But, wheat production is practised all over Croatia—in all agricultural regions because of tradition on the one side and crop rotation requirements on the other side. This conclusion points to an uneconomic allocation of budget funds for wheat incentives to the counties, whose output results do not justify the incentives. The current subsidy model stimulates production by applying the criterion of a minimum three-hectare area required for wheat incentives. Consequently, a part of wheat production is excluded from the incentive system in the counties with high potential farmland, i.e. in the counties collecting a differential land rent for wheat production, which is uneconomical in terms of macroeconomics.Even though the model featured in this paper exemplifies wheat production in this particular situation, it can be easily used to evaluate the efficiency of incentives for all the crops included in the incentive system, while applying the standards of economics and agricultural regionalization. It can also be used to determine subsequent, more economical distribution of production incentives by channelling uneconomically allocated budget funds into implementation of other agricultural policies and measures.     

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Incentives in agriculture are highly distorted. It has long been argued that these distortions were a key explanation for differences in supply and productivity across countries, but the empirical evidence is limited. We revisit this issue using data on policy distortions across 63 countries for the period 1961–2011. We estimate the effects of differential changes in agricultural distortions across countries on supply and productivity. We highlight concerns in our analysis and previous work about endogeneity that biases the estimated effect downward—countries that lose comparative advantage are likely to increase support for agriculture. We address these concerns by including country and region-time fixed effects, along with a rich set of controls. Overall, we find evidence that enhanced incentives through policy changes can increase the rate of production growth, with about half of the increase due to productivity increases. This result is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where anti-agricultural policies on exports were reduced and in Europe where pro-agricultural policies on imports were reduced, driven largely by external pressure. Endogeneity appears to be strongest in Asia where countries have followed the typical pattern of raising support for agriculture during industrialization due to a rising farm-urban income gap.     

Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation*

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4°C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two‐stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long‐run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.     

Measuring the sustainability and economic viability of tropical farming systems: a model from sub-Saharan Africa

New technologies must be developed in sub-Saharan Africa which are sustainable and economically viable. This paper discusses a methodology for measuring the agricultural sustainability and economic viability of tropical farming systems for new technology evaluation. The approach is based on the concept of interspatial and intertemporal total factor productivity, paying particular attention to valuation of natural resource stock and flows. Agriculture is a sector which utilizes natural resources (e.g. soil nutrients) and the stock and flows of these resources affect the production environment. However, in many cases, the stock of these resources is beyond the control of the farmer and must be accounted for in an agricultural sustainability and economic viability measurement. For example, soil nutrients are removed by crops, erosion or leaching beyond the crop root-zone, or other processes such as volatilization of nitrogen. Agricultural production can also contribute to the stock of some nutrients by leguminous plants such as agroforestry systems. Using a data set available at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, we compute the intertemporal and interspatial total factor productivity indices for four cropping systems in southwestern Nigeria using stock of major soil nutrients as the natural resource stock. Results show that the sustainability and economic viability measures are sensitive to changes in the stock and flow of soil nutrients as well as the material inputs and outputs. Where the contribution of natural resource stock and flows are important (such as in the case of alley cropping), the measures provide markedly different results from conventional TFP approaches. The advantage of this approach is that interspatial and intertemporal total factor productivity measures are computed using only price and quantity data, thus eliminating the need for econometric estimation.     

Production & trade structure and accession to the EC: The case of Greek agriculture

Summary

Greece's climatic and soil conditions, together with the size structure of its farms favour the production of Mediterranean‐type products, in which the country has a comparative advantage. However, the structure of agricultural production and exports has been changing, at least since 1961, when Greece became an Associate Member of the EC, with a shift from traditional crops (tobacco, cotton, olive oil and dried vine fruit), towards fruit and vegetables especially of late towards early varieties which do not coincide seasonally with EC production as well as certain “Northern” products (wheat, maize, and barley). Despite a substantial increase in livestock production, imports of meat, and dairy products have grown considerable faster than imports of other agricultural produce.

By presenting these trends, this paper attempts to show that in the post ‐ EC membership period (after 1.1.1981) developments in agricultural production and trade cannot be attributed to membership, since they had appeared long before it. This evidence also indicates that the above trends are not likely to change significantly within the EC in the future.     

乌兰察布市及其周边各旗（县）农业产业结构调整研究

[目的]通过对乌兰察布市农业产业结构调整的经济效益进行定量和定性的分析研究,为该市农业产业结构调整以及农业产业经济发展提供有益借鉴。[方法]文章运用综合比较优势指数测算农业产业的比较优势,构建产值增长贡献率模型分析农业结构调整对农业经济的影响,并对农业产业结构调整与农业经济增长的影响关系进行回归分析。[结果]乌兰察布市农业产业的显著综合比较优势主要集中在集宁区、卓资县、四子王旗、察哈尔右翼前旗,并且多数农业产业的规模比较优势相较于产量比较优势更为突出;通过预测模型看出,农业产业结构调整对农业经济增长呈负向贡献率;从回归分析得出,小麦、玉米、莜麦、豆类、马铃薯、油料作物、蔬菜瓜果产值每增加1%会分别为乌兰察布市农业总产值带来0.020%、0.057%、0.015%、0.018%、0.223%、0.847%、0.468%的经济增量。[结论]玉米、油料作物、蔬菜瓜果和马铃薯对农业产业总值推动力较强,小麦、豆类和莜麦对农业产业总值的推动力相对较弱;乌兰察布市农业结构调整对农业经济增长的影响不太显著。     

Livestock pricing policy in sub-Saharan Africa: objectives,instruments and impact in five countries

Livestock pricing policies in many developing countries are often instituted without a good appreciation of the consequences of such policies for allocative efficiency, output and trade. This paper evaluates, in a comparative cross-country context, the objectives and instruments of livestock pricing policy in five sub-Saharan African countries: Ivory Coast, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan and Zimbabwe during the period 1970-86. It assesses the extent to which pricing policy objectives have been attained, and also estimates the effects of price interventions on output, consumption, trade and government revenues in order to draw out lessons for the future. The empirical results indicate that in comparison with real border prices, a certain degree of success was achieved in stabilising real domestic producer prices in the study countries. The results also show that since the early 1980s, there has been a gradual shift away from taxation of producers. However, consumers still appear to gain as much as producers in three of the study countries, with negative consequences for foreign exchange earnings and government revenues. The analysis reveals the importance of domestic inflation and exchange rates as key variables for livestock pricing policies and highlights the need to address the macroeconomic imbalances that cause exchange rate distortions and high domestic inflation at the same time that direct price distortions are being tackled.     

Cost-effectiveness of alternative green payment policies for conservation technology adoption with heterogeneous land quality

This paper quantitatively analyses the cost‐effectiveness of alternative green payment policies designed to achieve a targeted level of pollution control by heterogeneous microunits. These green payment policies include cost‐share subsidies that share the fixed costs of adoption of a conservation technology and/or input reduction subsidies to reduce the use of a polluting input. The paper shows that unlike a pollution tax that achieves abatement through three mechanisms, a negative extensive margin effect, a negative intensive margin effect and a technology switching effect, a cost‐share subsidy and an input reduction subsidy are much more restricted in the types of incentives they provide for conservation of polluting inputs and adoption of a conservation technology to control pollution. Moreover, they may lead to varying levels of expansion of land under production. Costs of abatement with alternative policies and implications for production and government payments are compared using a simulation model for controlling drainage from irrigated cotton production in California, with drip irrigation as a conservation technology.