The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India

During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of population age structure variables in economic growth regressions. We estimate a new cross-country regression model of the effects of age structure change on economic growth. We use the new model and recent probabilistic demographic forecasts for India to derive the uncertainty of predicted economic growth rates caused by the uncertainty in demographic developments.     

Demographic transition and economic growth in China,India and Pakistan

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow–Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961–2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961–2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005–2050, and a negative effect in China.     

Innovative human resource management and corporate performance in the context of economic liberalization in India

The Indian economy was forced to adopt a structural adjustment programme at the beginning of 1991. The structural adjustment programme or liberalization initiated the process of the opening up of an otherwise closed economy of India. Liberalization created a hyper-competitive environment and to respond to this turbulence, Indian organizations adopted innovative changes in their HRM practices. Current research shows that HRM practices are important for enhanced corporate performance but little has been reported on the effect of HRM practices and corporate performance in the context of economic liberalization of India. This study tries to understand the role of innovative HRM practices and specifically questions how HRM practices, such as the role of HR department, recruitment, retraining and redeployment, performance appraisal and compensation, enhance corporate performance during the change process. A multiple-respondent survey of 69 Indian organizations was undertaken to study the impact of innovative HRM practices on firm performance. The survey found that the innovative recruitment and compensation practices have a positive significant relationship with firm performance. It was observed that recruitment, the role of the HR department and compensation practices seem to be significantly changing within the Indian firms in the context of India's economic liberalization. The synergy between innovative HRM practices was not significant in enhancing corporate performance during the liberalization process.     

The economic evolution of democracy

Using a variant of the Ramsey growth model, we explore the relationships between economic growth and the emergence of democracy. We argue that democracy acts as a commitment device to economic reforms favored by an elite under the threat of rebellion. Consistent with British economic history we model liberalizing reforms of the labor market as the mechanism by which the elite redistribute resources to the poor. We find that if democracy emerges it is preceded by a period of growth, however the emergence of democracy will only encourage further growth if the redistributions it entails do not significantly hamper capital accumulation.      

The persistence of economic profit

Recently, as practitioners and researchers from developed countries have increasingly probed the activities of emerging economies, what exactly drives the long-term economic profitability of firms in China has become the most salient issue in the above fields. However, a study dedicated to the persistence analysis of profitability differentials among firms in China has not yet been proposed. This study thus employs China’s business database to examine the persistence in the incremental components of the industry and firm effects on economic profitability and tests the hypotheses that conform to the conventional wisdom of relative rates of persistence. A persistence partitioning model is fitted to a new data set, and the results show that the incremental effects of industry on economic profitability persist longer than the incremental effects of the firm. In other words, the long-term competitive advantages of firms in China are more predictable and sustainable based on industry influences compared to firm factors. These findings support the predictions of industrial organization economics, and provide some implications for corporate strategy.     

城市化对经济增长推动作用的经济学分析

经过国内理论界20多年来的研究与争论,已经基本上就我国存在低度城市化的问题方面达成了共识.但是对于城市化对经济增长的作用机理研究得仍然不够.文章以城市化对经济增长有推动作用这个已经达成共识的结论为阐述的观点,以宏观经济学、微观经济学的理论为基础,力图达到对城市化对于经济增长推动的作用机理进行系统的阐述.     

The economic cost of coronavirus lockdowns

• ▪ Widespread lockdowns and social distancing in economies affected by the coronavirus outbreak are set to cause a massive negative short-term impact on consumer spending and GDP.
• ▪ A large chunk of consumer spending is discretionary and so is very sensitive to being postponed or lost completely due to quarantines and social distancing.
• ▪ The early evidence from China supports the idea that up-front effects will be large, with retail sales down 20% y/y in January–February and industrial output over 13% lower, thanks to widespread factory closures.
• ▪ We estimate that a three-week lockdown affecting 50%–90% of a population would cut consumption in the three–month period featuring such a lockdown by 5%–8%, a six-week lockdown by 9%–16%, and a 12-week lockdown would slash it by 18%–32%.
• ▪ Full-year effects depend on how quickly postponed consumption revives as outbreaks come under control. But even quick recoveries imply big full-year losses: An initial 18% slump in consumption would still imply a full-year loss of 9%, even if spending recovered to pre-pandemic levels in four quarters. If recovery took eight quarters, the full-year loss would be an enormous 14%.

     

The economic value of patent portfolios

Patent holders may choose to protect innovations with single patents or to develop portfolios of multiple, related patents. We propose a decision‐making model in which patent holders allocate resources to either expanding the number of related patents or investing in higher value of patents in the portfolio. We estimate the derived value equation using portfolio value data from an inventor survey at the level of individual inventions rather than the firm as a whole. We find that investments in individual inventions exhibit diminishing returns, and that a good part of the value of a portfolio depends on adding new patented inventions. Also, while diminishing returns to individual inventions are stable across subsamples, the returns to portfolio size vary between complex and discrete industries, and between inventions that are science‐based or driven by customer information. When firms seek to strengthen appropriability, the returns to an increase of portfolio size are not different from the sample average. Thus, a higher number of inventions in a portfolio may reflect both stronger appropriability via patents and genuine creation of value.     

The economic principles of pension provision

To examine pensions Samuelson's overlapping-generations model is generally used: its basic workings are set out here for an open economy. Pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) pensions are attractive when the rate of population growth exceeds the real rate of interest; then all generations are better off for the existence of the pension. The only cost is the income tax distortion. Once the rate of growth falls below the real interest rate, only the cost is left and it is better for the state to'fund'its pensions. If the state borrows to finance the transition to a funded system, it substitutes explicit debt for unfunded liabilities, which leaves its balance sheet unchanged; this avoids the problem of the existing young generation'paying twice'for its pensions.     

The analysis of seasonal economic models

Many important insights can be obtained about economic relationships and seasonality when an economic model contains an explicit specification of the mechanism generating seasonality in the endogenous variables. Unfortunately, determining the correct structure is difficult. The purpose of this paper is to outline a methodology for the analysis of seasonal economic models. In particular, several ways of incorporating seasonality into a structural model are considered and the implications for the behavior of the endogenous variables are derived. Finally, a rational expectations version of Cagan's money demand function is analyzed to demonstrate some of the important aspects of the techniques and seasonal economic models in general.