DECOMPOSITION OF LABOUR DEMAND BY EMPLOYER SECTORS AND GENDER: FINDINGS FOR MAJOR EXPORTING SECTORS IN TURKEY

This paper attempts to provide insight into the likely impacts of the current global crisis on employment in Turkey. As this crisis hits the Turkish economy through a demand squeeze in the international market, our focus is on the labour demand generated by major export sectors. The decomposition of impacts with respect to gender is of particular interest given the significant gender imbalances in the labour market. The findings indicate that female (male) employment is most sensitive to wearing apparel (trade) exports. In general, employment generation potentials of major export sectors are found to be weaker for females and stronger in agriculture, trade and finance, while they are very limited in manufacturing for both genders.     

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH TWO VARIABLES IN DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM: LABOUR TURNOVER AND OVERTIME

T he causal relationships in a two variable system are examined, using a simultaneous linear differential equation model. Emphasis is placed on the necessity for considering mutual interaction instead of looking for unidirectional causality. To demonstrate the usefulness of this approach an example is taken from the management science literature concerning the relationship between labour turnover and overtime. It is shown that, on certain assumptions, the data disconfirm a hypothesis previously thought to be confirmed. Certain informal observations made in the original paper were shown to receive confirmation from the data.     

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND RELATIVE LABOUR DEMAND: A GEOMETRIC SYNTHESIS OF NEOCLASSICAL TRADE MODELS

Technological advancements and reductions in trade tariffs have made it increasingly profitable for firms to separate their production into individual tasks, creating global value chains (GVCs). The theoretical literature on the distributional effects of GVCs is large, but ambiguous. Since the early conception of Jones' general equilibrium model in 1965, there seems to have been a tendency to repackage (part of) this model, generating apparent conflicts and implicit overlaps. This paper goes back to the basics by using the dual nature of the production model in Jones to provide a geometric exposition of the main channels by which GVCs can affect the relative demand for skilled labour. The explanatory power of this figure is vast. First, it can synthesize the ambiguous literature in a coherent and intuitive framework and show how subtle modelling differences can have widespread effects on key predictions. Second, it can serve as a conceptual framework and as a guide to empirical analysis. Third, it can be used as an illustration of key models explaining global value chains. Ultimately, the proposed figure can be used as a pedagogical tool for policy makers and (under)graduate students alike, without the need to understand complex algebra.     

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN DERIVED LABOUR DEMAND MODELS: A HIERARCHICAL META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The effect of technological innovation on employment is of major concern for workers and their unions, policy makers and academic researchers. We meta‐analyse 570 estimates from 35 primary studies that estimate a derived labour demand model. We contribute to existing attempts at evidence synthesis by addressing the risks of selection bias and that of data dependence in observational studies. Our findings indicate that: (i) hierarchical meta‐regression models are sufficiently versatile for addressing both selection bias and data dependence in observational data; (ii) innovation's effect on employment is positive but small and highly heterogeneous; (iii) only a small part of residual heterogeneity is explained by moderating factors; (iv) selection bias tends to reflect preference for upholding prevalent hypotheses on the employment effects of process and product innovations; (v) country‐specific effect‐size estimates are related to labour market and product market regulation in six OECD countries in a U‐shaped fashion; and (vi) OLS estimates reflect upward bias whereas those based on time‐differenced or within estimators reflect a downward bias. Our findings point out to a range of data quality and modelling issues that should be addressed in future research.     

TAX AND THE DIVISION OF LABOUR

All taxes drive a wedge between the prices consumers pay and prices producers receive, thus promoting inefficient 'do-it-yourself'(DIY) work - not just at home but also in the workplace.