A Note on the Stock Market Reaction to Dividend Announcements

In this paper, we examine the stock market reaction to dividend announcements. A sample of dividend increases and decreases is partitioned by payout ratio increases and decreases. Previous research has examined the differential reaction to payout ratio increases and decreases only for dividend increases. In addition to an event study, cross-sectional regressions are estimated using the percent changes in payout ratio and dividend to explain abnormal returns. We conclude that payout ratio changes appear to be only an artifact of an earnings stream that is more variable than the dividend stream, rather than revealing any significant shifts in managerial policy.     

The Real Product Market Impact of Mergers

I document sources of value creation in mergers by analyzing novel data on the quality and price of goods sold by merging firms. When two competitors in a product market merge, their products converge in quality, and prices fall relative to the competition. These effects take two to three years to be fully realized and are stronger in mature industries. Prices do not fall, however, when the acquirer is diversifying into a new product market. This direct evidence of real changes induced by merger activity is consistent with consolidation by related merging firms to achieve operational efficiencies and lower costs.     

A Re-Examination of the Joint Mortality Functions

Abstract

Mortality analysis involving multiple lives is easily one of the more complicated aspects in the theory of life contingencies. In this paper, we re-investigate joint mortality functions and in particular, we examine an assertion that relates the joint-life and last-survivor random variables. This common assertion states that the sum of the lifetimes of the joint-life and the last-survivor statuses is equal to the sum of the lifetimes of the single statuses. However, we show that this assertion is not precisely correct. We therefore offer a modification to the statuses definitions so that this common assertion holds.     

The Market for Mergers and the Boundaries of the Firm

We relate the property rights theory of the firm to empirical regularities in the market for mergers and acquisitions. We first show that high market-to-book acquirers typically do not purchase low market-to-book targets. Instead, mergers pair together firms with similar ratios. We then build a continuous-time model of investment and merger activity combining search, scarcity, and asset complementarity to explain this like buys like result. We test the model by relating like-buys-like to search frictions. Search frictions and assortative matching vary inversely, supporting the model over standard explanations.     

The Market Reaction to Stock Splits

In this paper, a model of market reaction to stock splits is presented and tested. We argue that the announcement of a split sets off the following chain of events. The market recognizes that, subsequent to the (reverse) split ex-day, the daily number of transactions along with the raw volume of shares traded will increase (decrease). This increase in volume results in an increase in the noisiness of the security's return process. The increase in noise raises the tax-option value of the stock, and it is this value that generates the announcement effect of stock splits. Empirical evidence using security returns, daily trading volume, and shareholder data strongly supports this theory. The evidence, in conjunction with this theory, also agrees with extant literature that splits result in decreased liquidity, but there is no evidence that this reduction in liquidity is priced.     

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected aggregate discount rates and, specifically, that good earnings news is associated with a positive shock to required returns. Consistent with this interpretation we find that Treasury bond rates and implied future inflation expectations respond directly to earnings news. We also find some evidence that the negative relation between earnings news and market return persists beyond the immediate announcement period, suggesting that market participants do not immediately fully impound these future market return implications of aggregate earnings news.     

Stock Market Reaction to the Appointment of Outside Directors

This paper examines the UK stock market's reaction to the appointment of outside (non‐executive) board members. Tests conducted using a sample of 714 appointments reported by EXTEL between 1 July, 1993 and 31 December, 1996, indicate a strong interaction between appointee characteristics and the magnitude of the agency problem: the share price reaction to outside director appointments is significantly more favourable when board ownership is low and the appointee possesses strong ex ante monitoring incentives. In contrast, the appointment of independent and manager‐affiliated outside directors does not appear to benefit shareholders on average, even in the presence of serious agency problems.     

Managerial Compensation and the Market Reaction to Bank Loans

This article considers why a manager would choose to submithimself to the discipline of bank monitoring. This issue isanalyzed within the context of a model where the manager enjoysprivate benefits, which can be restricted by the monitor, andis optimally compensated by shareholders. Within this settingwe find that managers will submit to monitoring when they receivefavorable private information. This result is consistent withevent study evidence that suggests that the market has a favorableview of financing choices that increase monitoring.     

Prior Information and the Market Reaction to Dividend Changes

We investigate two hypotheses regarding the information content of dividend change announcements. The first is that the importance of information signaled by a dividend change depends on the reliability of earnings forecasts existing before the dividend announcement. The second hypothesis is that the stock price reaction to dividend change announcements is related to earnings forecast error as of the time of the dividend announcement. Our results reveal that dividend increases convey more information for firms in which financial analysts least accurately predict earnings. The results also indicate that dividend increase and decrease announcements provide market participants with information which, on average, allows them to differentiate between firms on the basis of future earnings realizations. These differential information effects are shown to be robust to price, size, dividend yield, and overinvestment effects.     

On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises

Abstract:  This study extends Ertimur et al. (2003) and Jegadeesh and Livnat (2006a) by providing a contextual framework for the information content of revenue and earnings surprises. I find that the influence of earnings surprises (revenue surprises) on stock returns is lower (higher) in R&D intensive companies. Also, market reaction to earnings surprises is lower in the fourth quarter, and to revenue surprises it is higher in industries with oligopolistic competition. A comprehensive analysis indicates that, in contrast to previous studies for the full sample, in several contexts market reaction to earnings surprises is not higher than to revenue surprises.     

上市公司立案公告的市场反应及其含义

以往关于我国上市公司违反法规行为给投资者带来的财富损失的文献基本都以监管机构处罚公告作为事件研究的原点,而未考察处罚公告之前的另一项重要事件:立案公告。我们发现,在证监会处罚公告附近的市场反应约为-2%(这与以往文献一致),而立案公告附近的市场负反应则高达-6%左右。这意味着仅关注处罚公告事件将明显低估投资者的实际财富损失。在尝试解释立案公告日附近市场反应的截面差异时,我们发现立案公告前最近年度的盈余管理幅度越大,市场反应越负面,这意味着投资者在面临模糊信息时可能参考了此前的会计信息质量进行投资决策。我们还讨论了本文证据对我国证券市场虚假陈述行为的民事诉讼制度的含义。     

Market Reaction to Seasoned Offerings in China

This study examines stock market reaction to the announcement of various forms of seasoned issues in China. Our empirical evidence demonstrates that market reactions differ in ways that suggest a difference between management's internal assessment and the market's assessment of the stock price. The market responds unfavourably to the announcement, notably in the case of rights issues and also with regard to open offers. Private placements experience an unfavourable pre‐announcement reaction, which contrasts with the favourable reaction after the event. Convertible bond issues generate positive excess returns consistent with the market's confidence that they can help to align management and shareholders’ interests. Further investigation shows that market reaction is related to factors specific to the issuer and issue by reference to the period immediately surrounding the issue. Specifically, ownership concentration, agency matters connected with equity offerings, investor protection connected with fund allocation and security pricing, and the influence of powerful moneyed interests together provide an instructive insight into market reaction. Institutional inefficiency pertaining to underwriting, auditing, analysts’ forecasts and credit ratings are found to have a weak association with market price, consistent with due public scepticism concerning management and their gatekeepers.     

The Market Reaction to Canceled Equity Offerings

Investors appear to respond to both an investment-opportunity signal and a valuation signal when an equity offering is announced or canceled. While prices fall in response to equity offers and rise when offers are withdrawn, the price changes are greater for offers used to reduce debt than for offers used for capital expenditures. Consistent with asymmetry theory, offerings and withdrawals of convertible debt and utility stock cause less price change when compared to industrial stock offers. Finally, the reaction to cancellations made because of market conditions, indicating undervaluation, are similar to the reaction to cancellations made for other reasons.     

Market Reaction to Changes in the S&P SmallCap 600 Index

Firms added to (deleted from) the S&P 600 index experience a significant price increase (decrease) at announcement. Firms that newly enter (exit) the S&P universe experience a larger price increase (decrease) than firms that move between S&P indexes. Trading volumes are higher after the announcement and institutional ownership increases (decreases) following index additions (deletions). However, the price and volume effects are temporary and are fully reversed within 60 days, in contrast to the permanent effects reported for S&P 500 changes. Our results support the temporary price‐pressure hypothesis and are similar to results reported for Russell 2000 index changes.     

The Market Reaction to Discontinuing Regular Stock Dividends

This paper investigates the behavior of returns to share-holders of NYSE and AMEX firms that publicly announce the discontinuance of regular stock dividends. Using event-type methodology, the results show that the average abnormal return for NYSE and AMEX firms is negative but not statistically significant on the event date. Partitioning the sample by stock-related characteristics shows that for small firms with low stock prices and low institutional ownership, management's decision to drop regular stock dividends conveys a significantly negative signal, which, in turn, causes stock prices to decline. Firms that drop a stock payment and simultaneously initiate or increase cash dividends experience a significant increase in shareholder wealth. However, firms that drop the stock dividend policy and do not begin a cash dividend policy experience a sharp decline in shareholder wealth.     

重大突发公共卫生事件下的金融市场反应

本文旨在评估金融市场对重大突发公共卫生事件的反应,尤其是上市公司所在地的公共治理能力是否会影响上市公司股票收益率。其中,城市公共治理能力以基于实时数据计算的防疫能力和复工复产能力指标来刻画。主要发现如下:第一,防疫能力会影响投资者情绪,但不会直接影响股票收益率;第二,所在地复工复产能力对股票收益率存在正向影响;第三,机制分析表明,经营基本面更容易受疫情影响的企业,如小企业、成长型企业、所在地数字金融基础设施较差的企业,其股票收益率对当地复工复产能力的反应更敏感。本文结论表明,在全国一盘棋的抗疫努力下,投资者对于战胜疫情有信心,短期内复工复产能力对金融市场更重要。从应对措施来看,短期内可对比较脆弱的企业实施精准果断的帮扶,长期内可考虑加强地区防疫能力建设和数字基础设施建设。     

Trading Behavior and the Unbiasedness of the Market Reaction to Dividend Announcements

This article examines the price formation process during dividend announcement day, using daily closing prices and transactions data. We find that the unconditional positive excess returns, first documented by Kalay and Loewenstein (1985) , are higher for small-firm and low-priced stocks. Price volatility and trading volume also increase during this period. Examination of trade prices relative to the bid-ask spread and volume of trades at bid and asked prices shows that the excess returns cannot be attributed to measurement errors or to spillover effects of tax-related ex-day trading. Rather, the price behavior is related to the absorption of dividend information.     

City Markets as a Unit of Analysis in Audit Research and the Re-Examination of Big 6 Market Shares

Big 6 market shares based on aggregate national data have been used in prior research to infer market leadership and industry expertise, and to differentiate Big 6 accounting firms from one another. In this study it is demonstrated that further differences exist with respect to city-specific audit markets, both between firms and within the same firm across different city markets. The specific finding is that the national market leader is not the city-specific market leader the vast majority of time. Usefulness of the city-level unit of analysis is further demonstrated by re-examining the 1989 mergers creating Ernst & Young and Deloitte Touche. The primary effect of the Ernst & Young merger was to increase market shares in cities in which the pre-merger firms already had significant market shares, resulting in an increase in the number of cities in which the merged firm achieved top ranking. In contrast, the primary effect of the Deloitte Touche merger was an expansionof the number of city-level markets in which the merged firm had significant (though not leading) market shares. The findings of this study suggest that, in order to move beyond our current understanding, important audit research questions such as the reason for particular auditor–client alignments, the competitive nature of markets, audit pricing of reputations, and auditor reporting and independence issues should be investigated in city-level markets where audit contracting occurs and where Big 6 market shares (and presumably reputations) vary widely from city to city.     

Product Ratings as a Market Reaction to Deregulation: Evidence From the German Insurance Market

This study provides the first investigation of information markets as a reaction to deregulation of product forms in insurance markets. The article studies the case of Germany, where insurance product ratings entered the market after relaxation of product regulation in 1994. The ratings’ potential for enhancing the performance of a deregulated insurance market is analyzed by considering both market structure and governance characteristics of the rating market, since the theoretical literature predicts that both are important determinants of rating outcomes. Data from a unique panel data set containing disability insurance ratings from the three major rating agencies are also examined in light of theoretical predictions. Results suggest that market governance and competition characteristics are favorable for the production of unbiased and informative ratings. Ratings for disability insurance support this interpretation, since the characteristics of the ratings conform to theoretical predictions about ratings in well‐functioning rating markets.