Employee Costs of Corporate Bankruptcy

An employee's annual earnings fall by 13% in the first full calendar year after her firm's bankruptcy, and the present value of lost earnings from bankruptcy to six years following bankruptcy is 87% of pre-bankruptcy annual earnings. More worker earnings are lost in thin labor markets and among small firms. Ex ante compensating wage differentials for this “bankruptcy risk” are up to 2% of firm value for a firm whose credit rating falls from AA to BBB, comparable in magnitude to debt tax benefits. Thus, wage premia for expected costs of bankruptcy are sufficiently large to be an important consideration in capital structure decisions.     

破产企业治理结构与破产会计信息质量监控

本文以新破产法 (草案) 的基本框架为依托, 将破产企业分为破产和解企业、破产重整企业和破产清算企业三类, 探讨了不同类型破产企业的治理结构及其会计信息的特点, 提出了明确破产会计信息质量的监控目标、建立全面的破产会计制度规范、构建完整的破产会计信息质量监控体系、提高破产相关人员的综合素质等监控破产会计信息质量的基本思路。     

企业破产法存在的问题与完善建议

破产是一种企业无力偿还债务的事实状态，是将债务人的全部财产对所有债权人公平清偿为目的的程序。它的内涵是随着破产法的演进而不断丰富和发展的。破产法不再是单纯的清算法。它还担负起救助债务人特别是拯救困境企业的任务。     

论破产清算企业的内部控制

企业内部控制无处不在,无论持续经营企业还是破产清算企业都是如此。本文以我国企业破产清算过程中暴露出的内控问题为背景,以新破产法和企业内部控制基本规范为依托,探讨了构建破产清算企业内部控制制度的必要性,总结了我国企业破产清算中所出现的问题,提出了基于广义和狭义角度的我国破产清算企业内控架构,分析了破产清算企业内部控制的主要难点及其对策。     

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).     

Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy

This paper analyzes corporate bond valuation and optimal calland default rules when interest rates and firm value are stochastic.It then uses the results to explain the dynamics of hedging.Bankruptcy rules are important determinants of corporate bondsensitivity to interest rates and firm value. Although endogenousand exogenous bankruptcy models can be calibrated to producethe same prices, they can have very different hedging implications.We show that empirical results on the relation between corporatespreads and Treasury rates provide evidence on duration, andwe find that the endogenous model explains the empirical patternsbetter than do typical exogenous models.     

联合授信、企业投资行为与公司价值

本文从企业治理的角度实证研究外部联合授信政策如何通过影响企业内部治理,进而影响企业投资行为及企业价值.研究结果表明,联合授信政策通过强化整个银行体系的信贷管理与约束,透过企业内部治理体系,能有效传导至企业内部,抑制企业过度投资行为,缓解企业代理冲突问题,使企业资金合理配置,最终提升企业价值.     

Market Behavior of Institutional Investors around Bankruptcy Announcements

This paper examines, using proprietary ASX data containing institutional holdings, if institutional investors exit en mass prior to announcements of financial distress. Evidence indicates that while some institutional investors exit the stock, the withdrawal is gradual, commencing approximately 115 days prior to event. This is driven by active institutional investors reacting to the release of the financially distressed companies’ last publicly released financial reports. There is no significant decline in institutional holdings before announcements; most institutional investors hold financially distressed shares through to failure. There is evidence that the lack of disclosure drives the increase in information asymmetry prior to company failure.     

Corporate Governance,Managers' Independence,Exporting, and Performance of Firms in Transition Economies

Using data on 157 large companies in Poland and Hungary, this paper employs Bayesian structural equation modeling to examine the relations among corporate governance, managers' independence from owners in terms of strategic decision making, exporting, and performance. Managers' independence is positively associated with firms' financial performance and exporting. In turn, the extent of managers' independence is negatively associated with ownership concentration, but positively associated with the percentage of foreign directors on the firm's board. We interpret these results as indicating that concentrated owners tend to constrain managerial autonomy at the cost of the firm's internationalization and performance, but board participation of foreign stakeholders enhances the firm's export orientation and performance by encouraging executives' decision-making autonomy.     

Public Pressure and Corporate Tax Behavior

We use a shock to the public scrutiny of firm subsidiary locations to investigate whether that scrutiny leads to changes in firms’ disclosure and corporate tax avoidance behavior. ActionAid International, a nonprofit activist group, levied public pressure on noncompliant U.K. firms in the FTSE 100 to comply with a rule requiring U.K. firms to disclose the location of all of their subsidiaries. We use this setting to examine whether the public pressure led scrutinized firms to increase their subsidiary disclosure, decrease tax avoidance, and reduce the use of subsidiaries in tax haven countries compared to other firms in the FTSE 100 not affected by the public pressure. The evidence suggests that the public scrutiny sufficiently changed the costs and benefits of tax avoidance such that tax expense increased for scrutinized firms. The results suggest that public pressure from outside activist groups can exert a significant influence on the behavior of large, publicly traded firms. Our findings extend prior research that has had little success documenting an empirical relation between public scrutiny of tax avoidance and firm behavior.     

公司的资本成本与投资理性——来自沪深上市公司的证据

本文对我国上市公司的投资行为及其影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）上市企业的投资决策受资本成本的约束显著，符合市场理性；（2）企业投资对内部现金流、外部负债融资和股权融资都具有敏感性，但回归系数依序递减，可能说明了不同融资形式的成本差异；（3）产品市场需求增长为企业带来了有价值的投资机会，具有拉动企业投资的显著作用。     

Innovate to Survive: The Effect of Technology Competition on Corporate Bankruptcy

This paper establishes a strong relation between technology competition and corporate bankruptcy. Using detailed firm‐level patent data, we show that: 1) the capability of firms to innovate predicts future bankruptcies better than the typical measures such as Z‐score and credit rating, 2) technology‐related bankruptcies are less sensitive to the business cycle and industry success, and 3) firms that go bankrupt as a result of technology competition experience larger declines in earnings and stock prices.     

Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: Optimizing the Performance of the Mixed Logit Model

In recent studies, Jones and Hensher (2004 , 2005) provide an illustration of the usefulness of advanced probability modelling in the prediction of corporate bankruptcies, insolvencies and takeovers. Mixed logit (or random parameter logit) is the most general of these models and appears to have the greatest promise in terms of underlying behavioural realism, desirable econometric properties and overall predictive performance. It suggests a number of empirical considerations relevant to harnessing the maximum potential from this new model (as well as avoiding some of the more obvious pitfalls associated with its use). Using a three-state failure model, the unconditional triangular distribution for random parameters offers the best population-level predictive performance on a hold-out sample. Further, the optimal performance for a mixed logit model arises when a weighted exogenous sample maximum likelihood (WESML) technique is applied in model estimation. Finally, we suggest an approach for testing the stability of mixed logit models by re-estimating a selected model using varying numbers of Halton intelligent draws. Our results have broad application to users seeking to apply more accurate and reliable forecasting methodologies to explain and predict sources of firm financial distress better.     

行为金融学与公司财务

在公司决策中，经理人和董事会成员需要识别公司价值最大化过程中的两个主要行为学阻碍，一个在公司内部，另一个在公司外部。     

不确定性、股权激励与非效率投资

文章在考察环境不确定性对上市公司投资行为影响的基础上,分析了股权激励计划对这一相关关系的影响机制和作用效果,结果发现:企业所面临的环境不确定性会降低企业投资效率,导致过度投资或投资不足。而股权激励措施对不确定环境引起的管理者非效率投资行为有抑制作用。本文研究结果表明,股权激励制度有助于减少环境不确定性导致的代理矛盾,抑制过度投资,也有助于降低企业管理者风险的厌恶程度,缓解投资不足。