Estimating Portfolio Credit Losses in Downturns

This paper suggests formulas able to capture potential strong connection among credit losses in downturns without assuming any specific distribution for the variables involved. We first show that the current model adopted by regulators (Basel) is equivalent to a conditional distribution derived from the Gaussian Copula (which does not identify tail dependence). We then use conditional distributions derived from copulas that express tail dependence (stronger dependence across higher losses) to estimate the probability of credit losses in extreme scenarios (crises). Next, we use data on historical credit losses incurred in American banks to compare the suggested approach to the Basel formula with respect to their performance when predicting the extreme losses observed in 2009 and 2010. Our results indicate that, in general, the copula approach outperforms the Basel method in two of the three credit segments investigated. The proposed method is extendable to other differentiable copula families and this gives flexibility to future practical applications of the model.     

二元结构下的农村信用体系建设模式研究

本文从分析农村经济、农村信用的特点入手,充分考虑农村现实的金融生态环境和农村经济发展的规律,认为二元结构下农村经济、信用形式,存在着明显的有别于城市的特征.基于这些特征,本文从理论上设计了区别于一般信用体系的农村信用体系建设框架和模式,并结合山东的实践案例,为进一步开展农村信用体系建设提出了政策建议.     

二元结构下的农村信用体系建设模式研究

本文从分析农村经济、农村信用的特点入手,充分考虑农村现实的金融生态环境和农村经济发展的规律,认为二元结构下农村经济、信用形式,存在着明显的有别于城市的特征。基于这些特征,本文从理论上设计了区别于一般信用体系的农村信用体系建设框架和模式,并结合山东的实践案例,为进一步开展农村信用体系建设提出了政策建议。     

一起征信信息引发的纠纷及其对银行的启示

本案为虚假贷款纠纷中名义借款人已经获得法院判决其未向银行借款,而银行未能及时删除其向人民银行征信系统提交的有关该虚假贷款的信息,以致名义借款人无法从银行再借款而引发的纠纷。本案的根源在于虚假按揭贷款,因此涉及两个诉讼,一是关于名义借款人与贷款银行之间是否有借款法律关系,另一诉讼则是在前诉结束后,银行未能及时删除有关不良信用记录而对名义借款人是否造成名誉侵     

基于信息不对称的信贷配给均衡模型研究

本文建立了竞争和信息不对称条件下,信贷市场的信贷配给均衡模型,模型表明在为不同的借款人提供由贷款利率和贷款额度组成的相同贷款合同的情况下,信贷市场存在稳定的单合同均衡,信贷市场的均衡在信贷配给点达到,因而从信息不对称和均衡的角度解释了信贷配给现象。     

The Role of Soft Information in a Dynamic Contract Setting: Evidence from the Home Equity Credit Market

Credit underwriting is a dynamic process involving multiple interactions between borrower and lender. During this process, lenders have the opportunity to obtain hard and soft information from the borrower. We analyze more than 108,000 home equity loans and lines‐of‐credit applications to study the role of soft and hard information during underwriting. Our data set allows us to distinguish lender actions that are based strictly on hard information from decisions that involve the collection of soft information. Our analysis confirms the importance of soft information and suggests that its use can be effective in reducing overall portfolio credit losses ex post.     

基于信号模型及信息不对称条件下的信贷策略选择

在信贷市场中,由于信息不对称,银行一方面迫于业绩压力寻求贷款量的增长,另一方面手握投资项目的借款人又急需信贷资金的支持。针对该问题,在传统的银行信贷过程中引入了多阶段信号模型,银行根据借款人投资项目披露的阶段性信号值锁定该笔贷款风险情况,决定本阶段及后续阶段的信贷策略。研究发现:多阶段信号模型的引入对银行信贷资金形成了很好的保护机制,在督促借款人提高自身努力程度的同时也提高了信贷资金对于优质项目配置效率,极大地降低了信贷资金违约风险。     

Information Sharing in Credit Markets

We present a model with adverse selection where information sharing between lenders arises endogenously. Lenders' incentives to share information about borrowers are positively related to the mobility and heterogeneity of borrowers, to the size of the credit market, and to advances in information technology; such incentives are instead reduced by the fear of competition from potential entrants. In addition, information sharing increases the volume of lending when adverse selection is so severe that safe borrowers drop out of the market. These predictions are supported by international and historical evidence in the context of the consumer credit market.     

征信制度下个人信用信息的规范利用与法律保护

个人信用信息规范的目的在于"使用"和"收益",在于增进社会相关主体获取使用个人信用信息的能力,同时,个人信用信息的使用又必须兼顾到被征信人正当合法的信用权.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Money and Credit

We investigate the extent to which monetary policy can enhance the functioning of the private credit system. Specifically, we characterize the optimal return on money in the presence of credit arrangements. There is a dual role for credit: it allows buyers to trade without fiat money and also permits them to borrow against future income. However, not all traders have access to credit. As a result, there is a social role for fiat money because it allows agents to self‐insure against the risk of not being able to use credit in some transactions. We consider a (nonlinear) monetary mechanism that is designed to enhance the credit system. An active monetary policy is sufficient for relaxing credit constraints. Finally, we characterize the optimal monetary policy and show that it necessarily entails a positive inflation rate.     

征信弱势群体权益保护模式研究

随着我国征信市场的不断发展,对于信息主体的各类侵权行为也日益增加。在征信权益受到侵害的各类主体中,以农民、城镇低收入者、在校学生为代表的"征信弱势群体"的风险防范能力较低,权益受到侵害的风险较大,处理难度也高。分析征信弱势群体征信权益受侵害的形式,探讨对征信弱势群体权益保护存在的不足,提出加强征信弱势群体权益保护的对策。     

商业银行信用卡业务个人信用评估模型研究

个人信用评估是商业银行信用卡业务一直存在的问题,本文通过信用卡客户信息数据进行实证研究,构建基于C4.5算法的个人信用评估模型,并对信用模型进行了预测和评估,模型有较好的预测效果,可以为信用卡业务的个人信用风险管理提供借鉴。     

农信社经营管理模式探析

西部地区农信社实现县一级统一法人社改革后,由于种种原因,各家县级农村合作金融机构的经营管理存在许多差异。旬阳联社大胆探索,创造和积累了不少工作经验,被陕西省联社总结为＂旬阳模式＂,并在全省推广借鉴,本文对其中的主要做法进行了总结。     

中介模式下信用信息征集博弈分析

从博弈论的角度,结合守信激励、失信惩罚的机制,分析了征信机构与信息提供者在一次博弈与重复博弈中的不同行为策略,提出了影响信息提供者提供信息质量的因素主要包括信息提供者提供信息的单位成本,提供虚假信息所受到的惩罚,征信机构购买信息的价格。研究结果表明,应该加快信息的流通速度,提高信息的透明度,建立有效的守信激励、失信惩罚的机制,从而提高信用信息的真实性。     

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

This paper studies the role of credit supply factors in business cycle fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions enriched with an imperfectly competitive banking sector. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits, and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Loan margins depend on the banks' capital‐to‐assets ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Balance‐sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the banking sector and, in particular, sticky rates attenuate the effects of monetary policy shocks, while financial intermediation increases the propagation of supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the contraction of economic activity in 2008, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital may have substantial effects on the economy.     

信贷“不对称”风险

商业银行发生不良贷款的一个深层次原因在于银企之间、上下级行之间以及信贷流程前后环节之间存在不同程度的信息不对称问题。所谓“信息不对称”,是指一方拥有相关的信息而另一方没有或一方比另一方拥有更多的相关信息,从而对信息劣势者的决策造成不利影响的现象。     

完善企业征信系统的探讨

正企业信用信息基础数据库是人民银行组织各商业银行建立的企业信用信息共享平台,俗称企业征信系统,在防范资金风险、促进社会信用体系建设等方面发挥了重要作用。征信中心启动了征信系统二代建设工程,针对当前信用报告存在的内容不完整、参考性不强等方面瑕疵,拟通过系统全面升级和功能完善予以解决。企业征信系统被商业银行等金融机构广泛地应用于贷前审查、贷后管理等方面,有效地发挥了防范风险等作用。     

夯实金融基础工程--访中国人民银行统计司助理巡视员梁明高

编者按:2003年6月11日,中国人民银行网站上发布了一条名为"我国征信体系建设的良好开端"的消息,宣告我国银行信贷登记咨询系统到2002年底已实现全国联网,建设工作取得了重大进展.这一消息虽然以非常平静的方式来宣布,但立即引起了媒体的广泛关注.银行信贷登记咨询系统作为我国征信体系的主要组成部分,是保障金融业稳健发展的一项基础工程.<银行家>走访了一直主持这项工作的中国人民银行统计司助理巡视员梁明高.     

Biological and Psychobehavioral Correlates of Credit Scores and Automobile Insurance Losses: Toward an Explication of Why Credit Scoring Works

The most important new development in the past two decades in the personal lines of insurance may well be the use of an individual's credit history as a classification and rating variable to predict losses. However, in spite of its obvious success as an underwriting tool, and the clear actuarial substantiation of a strong association between credit score and insured losses over multiple methods and multiple studies, the use of credit scoring is under attack because there is not an understanding of why there is an association. Through a detailed literature review concerning the biological, psychological, and behavioral attributes of risky automobile drivers and insured losses, and a similar review of the biological, psychological, and behavioral attributes of financial risk takers, we delineate that basic chemical and psychobehavioral characteristics (e.g., a sensation‐seeking personality type) are common to individuals exhibiting both higher insured automobile loss costs and poorer credit scores, and thus provide a connection which can be used to understand why credit scoring works. Credit scoring can give information distinct from standard actuarial variables concerning an individual's biopsychological makeup, which then yields useful underwriting information about how they will react in creating risk of insured automobile losses.     

论信用信息的界定

如何科学地定义信用信息并为其划定边界,是社会信用体系理论的基础问题之一,该问题长期存在争议.在实践中,狭义信用信息是全球通用的信用信息概念,含义上几乎能与征信数据等同,而且是能够商业化的信息.广义信用信息则是将诚信、公德、合规等含义赋予之,扩大了其中信用概念的内涵和外延,试图使其能够适用于社会信用体系、诚信教育和政府信...