美国金融危机成因分析——基于价值观的视角

2008年9月15日,雷曼兄弟公司申请破产保护;同日,美国银行以440亿美元收购美林公司;随后,美国国际集团的信用等级被下调,标志着美国陷入了"百年一遇"的金融危机。随后,美国金融危机迅速演变成席卷全球的经济危机。     

关于美国次贷危机的思考

2008年3月,美国著名投资银行雷曼兄弟宣布破产倒闭,标志着美国次贷危机正式爆发,进而像多米诺骨牌一样,深度影响全球主要经济体的经济发展和金融秩序.     

美国的企业养老保险

经过上百年的发展和不断调整,美国逐步形成了包括社会养老保险、企业养老保险和个人储蓄养老保险在内的多支柱养老保险体系。     

Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis

Which theory can quantitatively explain the rise in mortgage defaults during the U.S. mortgage crisis? This paper finds that the double‐trigger hypothesis, which attributes mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event such as unemployment, is consistent with the evidence. By contrast, a traditional frictionless default model strongly overpredicts the increase in default rates. This paper provides microfoundations for double‐trigger behavior in a model where unemployment causes liquidity problems for the borrower. This framework implies that mortgage crises may be mitigated at a lower cost by bailing out borrowers instead of lenders.     

对美国次贷危机的深层思考

本文首先揭示了次贷危机的三大特征,然后分析次贷危机对金融业所造成的损失,接下来分析次贷危机的传导机制和对美国经济的整体影响。我们从周期及其结构的角度上作出谨慎的分析,最后提出了对中国银行业的启示和相关建议。     

Information Effects During the U. S. Subprime Crisis

We investigate the impact of the U. S. subprime crisis on the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific countries on various event dates. Using data from Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan, we find that the subprime crisis negatively affects these stock markets and investor behavior, especially in Hong Kong and Taiwan. In addition, the subprime crisis generally works through more financial linkages than trade linkages. However, when the subsamples are classified according to industry, this result exists only for the banking industry, but both financial and trade linkages become important to explain the impact of the crisis on the manufacturing industry.     

美国次贷危机形成机理与金融危机根源探究

美国次贷危机已经演变成全球性的金融危机。这场金融危机的直接导火索是次贷危机,其根源则是美元国际本位制和美国长期实行的“双赤字”政策以及美国经济过度的虚拟化,这些因素决定即使次贷危机不爆发也会有别的金融产品危机来引发美国金融危机,区别只是时间上的早晚问题。     

U.S. Banking Sector Operational Losses and the Macroeconomic Environment

Using supervisory data from large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), we find that BHCs incur more operational losses in adverse macroeconomic conditions driven significantly by the higher frequency and severity of tail events. Among different operational risk types, we find that losses from BHCs' failure to meet obligations to clients or from the design of their products are particularly countercyclical. We also show that larger and more leveraged BHCs have a higher macroeconomic sensitivity of operational risk. Overall, our findings provide new evidence regarding U.S. banking organizations' exposure to macroeconomic shocks with implications for risk management practices and supervisory policy.     

实体经济受损 国际金融动荡——美国次贷风波及其对我国经济金融的警示

2007年3季度次贷风波爆发以来,美国房地产市场、信贷市场、债券市场、股票市场以及美国经济本身在长期发展中堆积的大量风险在相互传染中集体释放,对美国消费、投资和贸易增长带来了较大负面影响,美国经济周期由此从复苏阶段滑向放缓阶段,世界经济增长和国际金融稳定也受到不确定性显著增强的较大冲击。虽然次贷风波对中国经济与金融市场的短期影响有限,但也给中资银行带来了一些警示,值得我们引以为戒。     

美国金融危机调查的主要发现

2007年,美国"金融海啸"爆发并迅速蔓延成为全球性金融危机,全球经济发展陷入前所未有的困境。金融危机调查委员会(FCIC)于2009年由美国国会授权成立,该委员会进行了长达一年半的调查,公布了金融危机调查报告。报告指出,金融业的"舵手"和公共管理者忽视了危机发生前经济金融中出现的种种预警信号,缺乏对经济状况的敏感和探究精神,最终导致了系统性风险的失控,而这场金融危机本可避免。本文试对该报告的主要结论进行系统阐述。     

International Housing Markets and the U.S. Subprime Crisis

We propose a novel decomposition approach to study the degree of co-movement of international housing markets while distinguishing among different economic drivers. We find that the housing market variability for an average country was mainly driven by the common housing risk premium components during the years leading up to the 2007–08 subprime financial crisis. A decrease in the common housing risk premium was followed by a housing boom and economic expansion in the United States prior to the crisis. Our findings add to the understanding of the role of common risk factors across international housing markets before the crisis.     

金融海啸中的美国体验

编者按:这篇文章所展现的,是借助一个青年学生的双眼看到的当前的美国,这位二十岁的孩子不仅看到了美国的表像,还透视了该国的文化深处,更可贵的是他还议论我们民族的所长所短.这样的好文章,不应当从读者的眼皮子底下溜掉.     

美国个人股票持有结构分析

二战后,美国个人的金融资产结构发生了显著变化,直接持有股票的比重降低而机构性资产的份额大幅度上升。从微观家户层面角度,美国家庭的直接股票持有与家庭收入呈明显的正向关系,低收入家庭群体直接持股比例低,而收入越高的家庭群体直接持股的比例也越高。基于美联储的消费者金融调查数据,我们从户主年龄、户主受教育程度、户主就业状况以及住房状况等方面详细分析了美国的家庭收入分布状况与直接持有股票状况,也印证了上述结论。借鉴美国的发展经验,笔者对我国个人金融资产结构的改善提出若干建议。     

关于美国次贷危机国际蔓延渠道的探讨

由于美国是世界第一大经济体、主要债务国,美元又是世界主要流通货币和储备货币,因此,美国次贷危机的国际传播,不同于以往金融危机,它是通过金融渠道、贸易渠道和货币渠道从美国蔓延到与美国经济、金融联系密切的其他国家,形成了全球性的金融危机和经济衰退.     

战后美国个人部门金融资产结构发展分析

中国GDP仅占全球7.3%,却掌握着约占全球25%的外汇储备。随着外汇储备不断增长,如何使用以实现效益最大化,已引起各方关注。本研究主要从以下两个视角展开:一是公共财政视角;二是金融视角。我国外汇储备资产具有财政与金融双重属性,决定了我国外汇储备资产运用上的双重功能:一方面,外汇储备的经济属性表明,外汇储备不是政府的财政性资金,不能无偿划拨和使用,需要作为资产来运用与管理;另一方面,在我国特殊的外汇管理体制下,经由外汇占款形成的外汇储备,构成基础货币的一个部分,这部分外汇储备实际上是政府通过货币发行权而获得的铸币税收入,是政府的财政性资金,从公平角度出发,这部分资金应该用于公共领域,以提高国民福利。     

美国农业巨灾保险发展评析与思考

美国的农业巨灾保险体系有效地提高了农业巨灾风险的管理水平和效率。本文通过回顾美国农业巨灾保险的发展历程和组织机构的变迁轨迹,发现美国农业巨灾保险体系成功运行的重要保证是其支撑体系的不断完善。基于此,文章对我国开展农业巨灾保险应注意的几个问题进行了揭示和思考。     

On the Revelation of Private Information in the U.S. Crop Insurance Program

The crop insurance program is a prominent facet of U.S. farm policy. The participation of private insurance companies as intermediaries is justified on the basis of efficiency gains. These gains may arise from either decreased transaction costs through better established delivery channels and/or the revelation of private information. We find empirical evidence suggesting that private information is revealed by insurance companies via their reinsurance decisions. However, it is unlikely that such information will be incorporated into subsequent premium rates by the government.     

A Multi-Product Cost Study of the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

This paper reports estimates of overall and product specific economies of scale, as well as, economies of scope for the main outputs of the life insurance industry. In addition, the paper presents a number of structural tests of the production technology. The results indicate that the estimated cost function satisfies the regularity conditions, that the industry exhibits overall and product specific economies of scale, and that there are significant economies of scope between the main lines of business.     

美国次贷危机传导机理分析

美国次贷危机爆发后,迅速在国内和国际传导蔓延。从国内看,危机先从信贷市场传导至资本市场,又从资本市场回传到信贷市场,并对实体经济造成冲击。从国际看,危机通过金融渠道、贸易渠道和心理渠道向世界各国扩散。分析本次危机的传导机理,对日后有效防范金融危机的产生和蔓延具有理论和现实意义。