美国的出口限制提议与中国半导体工业的发展

1992年以来,外国在华直接投资无论是在数量上,还是在质量上都取得了长足的进步。除了传统劳动密集型产业之外,一些资本、技术密集型产业的外国直接投资发展迅猛;大型跨国公司越来越倾向于将产业链中最具增值力、最不可或缺的部分转移到中国来。其中,国际半导体工业的在华投资极     

An estimate of the capital stock for the Belgian industrial sector

The paper submitted for publication considers the conditions for and the construction of a capital stock series, consistent with all macroeconomic relations. A careful study of the literature has shown that most existing and widely used capital stock series do not meet that requirement. A generative method with a general model for the real sector is proposed. The choice of the parameters of this model was decided upon the general consistency with the main macroeconomic aggregates. The results are compared with existing series of capital stock. What was obtained was a capital stock series that gives non-diverging results for the macroeconomic series when using the capital stock in alternative specifications. The main conclusions on depreciation rate, capital stock, technological change, return on capital and share of capital are condensed in a set of tables and diagrams.     

A simultaneous disequilibrium model for Italian export goods

An econometric methodology is proposed for simultaneously estimating a disequilibrium macroeconomic model which takes into account the interactions occurring between variables or equations when aggregate quantities come from markets which do not clear. A specification of disequilibrium is considered which is substantially a simultaneous version of the well known partial adjustment model, instead of taking into account the conventional “short-side” rule. A simple model for italian manufactured export goods is estimated with limited and full information techniques subject to cross equation restrictions which permit the identification of the structural parameters of the model. By investigating the extent to which these restrictions are supported by evidence, this approach is shown to be useful for the comprehension of how the italian export market for manufactured goods operates. Tests on equilibrium versus disequilibrium hypothesis seem to support such a specification for macro-disequilibrium.     

A disequilibrium macroeconomic model of the Belgian economy : The Maribel II model of the Planning Bureau

This paper describes the Maribel II model, a model used by the Belgian Planning Bureau for analysing and simulating macroeconomic changes in the Belgian economy. Its main feature is that it is a disequilibrium model (for both the product and the labour market). During the construction of the model considerable attention was given to its theoretical underpinning. The steady state properties show that the mechanisms are mainly classical with a strong dependence on foreign influences. The multiplier analysis confirms the relatively small multipliers in Belgium and also shows the richness that a disequilibrium model provides for analysing particular policies.     

我国中药产业比较优势及出口发展战略研究

在回归自然的世界潮流中,国际医药界正在进行一场扩大天然药物使用的"绿色革命".中药作为主要的天然药物,其开发与应用正成为世界各国医药产品发展的方向之一.我国的中草药资源非常丰富,而且我国中医药学在数千年的实践中积累了丰富的临床应用经验.但是,我国中药在国际市场上所占的份额却很小.本文利用净出口指数这个指标来测算我国中药产业的比较优势,从而来显现我国中药产业在国际市场中的竞争地位,同时对我国中药的出口发展提出了战略选择,为我国中药产业的国际化发展提供参考意见.     

我国中药产业比较优势及出口发展战略研究

在回归自然的世界潮流中,国际医药界正在进行一场扩大天然药物使用的“绿色革命”。中药作为主要的天然药物,其开发与应用正成为世界各国医药产品发展的方向之一。我国的中草药资源非常丰富,而且我国中医药学在数千年的实践中积累了丰富的临床应用经验。但是,我国中药在国际市场上所占的份额却很小。本文利用净出口指数这个指标来测算我国中药产业的比较优势,从而来显现我国中药产业在国际市场中的竞争地位,同时对我国中药的出口发展提出了战略选择,为我国中药产业的国际化发展提供参考意见。     

An estimation of import demand,export supply and technical change for Korea

This paper estimates import demand and export supply functions for Korea based on the translog restricted profit (or GNP) function. It also estimates biases of technological change and applies decomposition analysis to examine the effects of technical change on input demand within the profit function framework. Our findings show that (a) factor inputs, as well as outputs, are, in general, moderately price-elastic and substitutable among each other. (b) the production of investment goods, as well as export goods, is capital-intensive while the production of consumption goods is labout-intensive, (c) technical change is labour-saving and is biased against imports, and (d) there has been a rapid decline of export supply price-elasticity which may be attributable to the rapid growth of export share of GDP (from 4% in 1964 to 38% in 1983). The larger the relative size of export sector and the faster the rate of its growth, the harder will it be to expand export production by drawing own resources from the domestic sector.     

An NK-like model for complexity

The level and nature of complexity is widely regarded as an important determinant of a number of economic, technological and organizational phenomena. A popular modeling tool for the representation of complexity in economics and organizational sciences is the NK model that represents the complexity stemming from the interactions among the elements of a system. This paper proposes an enhanced model for complexity that, though maintaining the core design (and properties) of the NK model, provides a more intuitive and richer representation of complexity, extending its applications and deepening the understanding of its effects on economic systems. The proposed pseudo-NK (pNK) model is defined on real-valued variables, as opposed to the binary variables required by NK, so as to allow for richer and more intuitive definitions of distance and search strategies. It also admits as a source of complexity not only the number of interactions, as in NK, but also their intensity, opening a novel way to express and measure the level of complexity. Finally, instead of relying on statistical properties of a large dataset of random values, pNK is defined as a deterministic function, far simpler to implement, to interpret and to calibrate for specific requirements. The paper replicates known results and presents original ones; in both cases, the proposed model proves a powerful tool for the investigation of the role of complexity, particularly in agent-based models.     

Alternative Environmental Regulation Schemes for the Belgian Power Generation Sector

This paper discusses the effects of alternative waysof using external cost estimates to regulateinvestments and generation in the electricityproduction sector. Starting from the existing system,four alternatives are considered: emission taxes forthe utility and for independent producers, emissiontaxes limited to the electric utility, emissionpermits limited to the electric utility and finally asystem where only investments are regulated, anddispatch is not. Taking external damage estimates fromthe literature, these alternatives are compared usinga dynamic partial equilibrium model of the Belgianelectricity market for the period 1995–2034. Theefficiency and distribution effects of the alternativeenvironmental policy instruments are quantified.     

A baseline model of industry evolution

The paper analyses some general dynamic properties of industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry.After a brief critical assessment of some significant drawbacks of recent contributions to modeling of stochastic industrial dynamics, we propose a novel analytical apparatus able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent technological heterogeneity, differential growth of individual firms and turnover. The basic model, we suggest, is indeed applicable with proper modifications to a large class of evolutionary processes, well beyond industrial dynamics.JEL Classification: L11, O30, C60Support to this research by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; the Fujitsu Research Institute for Advanced Information (FRI), Japan; the Italian National Research Council (CNR), the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR, prot. 2002132413 003) and the Free University of Bozen Bolzano, Italy, is gratefully acknowledged. Comments by Andrea Bassanini, Francesca Chiaromonte, Steven Klepper, Uwe Cantner, Drew Fudenberg and the anonymous referees helped in shaping the paper to its present form. Mariele Berté provided the computer simulations of the model. The usual caveats apply.Correspondence to: G. Dosi     

Long-run convergence in a neo-Kaleckian open-economy model with autonomous export growth

This study combines a neo-Kaleckian growth and distribution model with a sort of Sraffian supermultiplier mechanism in which autonomous demand is driven by foreign exports. Short-, medium- and long-run equilibria are considered. In the long-run case, the expectations of sales growth governing investment change adaptively, and this, combined with the autonomous growth rate of exports, produces convergence of the actual rate of capacity utilization to its normal rate. It is demonstrated that some aspects of the main Kaleckian results can be preserved not only in the short or medium run but also in the long run, in the sense that both (1) a decrease in the propensity to save, and (2) a change in income distribution favoring labor, bring about higher average rates of production growth and capital accumulation. However, the impact of a change in the profit share is shown to be subjected to the condition that the responsiveness of the real exchange rate with respect to the profit share has to be bounded from above, confirming that the scope for wage-led demand or wage-led growth can be limited by open-economy considerations, even within the supermultiplier context.     

从上海电站设备走出去看对外承包工程的可持续发展

电站设备是我国国民经济的支柱产业之一.据有关方面统计,最近几年我国电站设备行业通过在海外承接工程获得的订单不断上升.2003年至2006年我国在海外承接的电站建设项目合同金额分别为12.1亿美元、31.1亿美元、29.6亿美元和62.4亿美元,平均年增长36%.电站行业已成为我国企业开展国际化经营的一支重要力量.同样,经过近几年的海外拼搏,上海电站设备已成为上海"走出去"群体中的龙头企业.     

出口信贷下出口信用保险的应用研究

出口信用保险是出口信贷下出口商或出口国贷款银行规避来自进口方的政治风险和商业风险的重要手段.出口信贷下出口信用保险主要分为出口买方信贷保险和出口卖方信贷保险.论文主要探讨了出口信贷下出口信用保险的应用模式,从被保险人、贷款币种、保险标的等多个方面对出口买方信贷保险、出口卖方信贷保险进行了比较,提出出口信贷下出口信贷保险应用的对策建议.     

Applying the Grey prediction model to the global integrated circuit industry

This study examines the precision of the Grey forecasting model applied to samples based on demand and sales in the global integrated circuit (IC) industry. In doing so, the main objective is to explore which forecast model is most appropriate for the IC industry by comparing the empirical results from the Grey model (GM), time series and exponential smoothing. Furthermore, three residual modification models are applied to enhance the forecasting results. Empirical results indicate that the GM is better suited to short-term predictions than to mid- and long-term predictions. Meanwhile, the Markov-chain residual modification model achieves reliable and precise results.     

工业与农业相互依存的内生增长模型——工业反哺农业的理论基础

通过吸收内生增长理论的思想,将两部门的技术进步同时内生化,本文提出了一个工业和农业相互依存的二元经济内生增长模型,并以此对目前争议颇多的"工业反哺农业"的时机和政策问题,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析.本文认为,通过促进农村劳动力向工业部门转移可以推动中国经济的持续增长,加大对农业的投入和加快资本积累是推动农村劳动力转移、实现二元经济结构转换和经济持续增长的关键,因此工业反哺农业是我国经济均衡发展的必要条件.     

国际软件外包:中国IT企业的发展契机

随着我国政治、经济、文化生活等领域对信息技术需求的不断增长,以及国际间技术交流和贸易往来业务的逐渐融合,我国在计算机设备制造、互联网推广应用方面取得了举世瞩目的成绩,软件技术也得到了越来越广泛的应用。尽管中国还属于发展中国家,但信息技术的应用和发展前景却一片光明。不过我们也看到,在软件产业的进出口贸易方面,中国仍处于明显的劣势。在目前的形势下,系统软件很难撼动美国的技术垄断地位,应用软件大规模向国外推广的时机也尚不成熟,唯有软件外包给中国的IT企业带来了极有希望的发展契机。世界上软件出口处于领先地位的国家…     

An integrated indicator system for patent portfolios: evidence from the telecommunication manufacturing industry

Against the background of ‘patent portfolio races’ in industries such as telecommunications, this paper proposes a set of patent portfolio indicators to measure patents’ scale and diversity. This indicator system is used in a time series to analyse the patenting activity and technology strategy of the world’s top 20 firms in the telecommunication manufacturing industry, based on a large data set from United States Patent and Trade Office. In combination with composite and relative measures, we identify the firms’ comparative positions in patenting activity. The paper adds to the ongoing discussion about, and enriches the theory of, patent portfolios.     

An emprical model of the demand for a varied diet

This study attempts to measure some aspects of the household's demand for a varied die by invesigaing how he number of individual foods consumed b he household is affeced b is preferences and food expendiure. A heoriical model suggesed b household production theory is adopted to empirical data from a cross-section of households. It is found that the number of individual foods consumed is strongly responsive to househjold expenditure on all foods.