TRADE AND FACTOR FLOWS IN A DIVERSE EU: WHAT LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN ENLARGEMENT(S)?

Abstract.  This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures.     

Foreign exchange market volatility in EU accession countries in the run-up to Euro adoption: weathering uncharted waters

The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001–2003. By using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes, but also that some of the cross-correlations differ. Notably, cross-correlations increase substantially for two pairs of currencies (the Hungarian forint–Polish zloty and the Czech koruna–Slovak koruna) in the high-volatility period. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of these findings.     

‘Taking on almost everyone?’ Migrant and employer recruitment strategies in a booming labour market

This paper explores the recruitment strategies of employers in the Irish Celtic Tiger boom labour market. It explores Irish employers' turn towards immigrants rather than pursuing other strategies such as raising productivity or mobilising alternative sources of labour. It demonstrates that during the boom years a more casualised approach to recruitment was favoured, privileging soft skills and competencies above credentialised skills. Immigrants became the employees of choice, not least because of issues of costs and obedience, but also because they brought new skills, in particular soft skills. Indeed, employers in some sectors developed a categorical preference for migrant workers as they recruited for attitude, work ethic and potential.     

FDI溢出、金融市场与经济增长

当人力资本由外资生产部门转向国内生产部门或建立新企业时,FDI内生的技术溢出将成为可能,而新企业的建立需要向国内金融市场进行融资,因此,金融市场将起到FDI溢出与经济增长的重要联结作用,其效率的高低将直接影响到FDI溢出的效果进而影响到经济增长,通过模型分析和数据检验,本文认为,金融市场效率的提高将降低融资成本,促进人力资本学习水平上升进而导致其建立新企业的努力,意味着金融市场效率的提高将增加FDI的边际社会产出,FDI的溢出效应将在更大程度上影响经济增长。     

Influence of the EU (and the IMF) on domestic cutback management: a nine-country comparative analysis

ABSTRACT

The influence of the EU (and the IMF) on domestic cutback management were studied in nine European countries. In this concluding article, a cross-country comparative analysis is presented. The influence of the EU and the IMF being most evident in bailed-out countries, we first take a closer look at the loan programmes in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, plus the hardly-known earlier bailouts in Hungary and Latvia. We then turn to two factors that influence cutbacks and reforms: economics and politics. Finally, the concept of the influence of the EU (and the IMF) is differentiated into degrees and types of influence.     

Eco‐efficiency: GHG reduction related environmental and economic performance. The case of the companies participating in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Empirical findings on eco‐efficiency are still inconsistent. Using survey data based on a sample of 283 European carbon‐intensive companies participating in the EU ETS between 2005 and 2012, this article investigates the causal relationships between the corporate environmental strategy focus, proactive GHG reductions and related environmental and economic performance, while taking into account an important contingent factor: the initial state of technology. The study's findings show that eco‐efficiency was generally not obvious among the companies during the first two trading periods. It furthermore indicates that GHG emissions were generally not reduced cost‐effectively, as companies' intrinsic values were more likely to have influenced carbon reduction related decisions to a greater degree than the economic incentives resulting from the market mechanisms of the ETS. The results not only shed light on firm behavior with regard to technology management but also provide insights for policy makers into how to stimulate more cost‐effective environmental investments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Collaborative diversity in a nanotechnology innovation system: Evidence from the EU Framework Programme

Collaborative diversity is, arguably, an intrinsic characteristic of research networks built on the emergence of general-purpose technologies such as nanotechnology. European research policy, epitomised in Framework Programmes, creates arrangements that institutionalise the development of internationally and institutionally diverse research networks. Motivated by concerns that a high degree of collaborative diversity may create managerial challenges for network members in sharing knowledge across national and institutional borders, we study the configurations of collaborative research networks and consider their international and institutional diversity. We also explore the influence of European policy mechanisms on the international and institutional diversity of collaborative research networks. We conclude that nanotechnology research networks are indeed characterised by a significant degree of collaborative diversity, which in turn exposes a need for participating members to develop strategic capabilities to manage research within diverse networks.     

Europe and Central Asia after the May 2004 EU enlargement: A brief synthesis

This introduction provides a synthesis of the three papers in this symposium and its conclusion focusing on the potential trade between the Central Asian countries and the EU and highlights the impediments to achieving this potential. We argue that institutions matter and that, given the current level of institutional and infrastructure development in Central Asia, government intervention is necessary to establish a viable economic partnership.     

欧盟环保指令最新进展与绿色应对

在世界绿色环保浪潮中,欧盟不断制定和出台一系列环保指令,使我国出口企业面临巨大考验。本文在跟踪欧盟WEEE、RoHS、EuP三大指令最新动态的基础上,探讨指令对我国出口企业的影响,以及发展绿色产品的应对建议,希望有助于我国出口企业掌握及时动态信息以应对日趋严峻的国际形势。     

Economic crisis in the European periphery: An assessment of EMU membership and home policy effects based on the Greek experience

In this paper we examine the evidence on the impacts on the Greece economy of enhanced transfer assistance from the EMU as well as that of the domestic policies of the Greek government. A simple macroeconomic model is constructed to incorporate the issues related to the formation of the economic and financial crisis in Greece, and to analyze the impacts of Greek government's domestic policies. The model's solution is employed to highlight the outcomes that we believe could be related to EMU membership and Greek government policies after assuming membership. Our finding is that intervention by the Greek government either worsened the harmful impacts of the transfers, or altered the outcomes in a deleterious fashion; the policies which were put in place were of a nature leading unavoidably to a severe economic crisis and eventual bankruptcy.     

Brexit: Tracking and disentangling the sentiment towards leaving the EU

On 23 June, 2016, the UK held a referendum to decide whether to stay in the European Union or leave. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this referendum had major consequences for public policy, investment decisions, and currency markets. We discuss some of the subtleties involved in smoothing and disentangling poll data in light of the problem of tracking the dynamics of the intention to Brexit, and propose a multivariate singular spectrum analysis method that produces trendlines on the unit simplex. The trendline yield via multivariate singular spectrum analysis is shown to resemble that of local polynomial smoothing, and singular spectrum analysis presents the nice feature of disentangling the dynamics directly into components that can be interpreted as changes in public opinion or sampling error. The merits and disadvantages of some different approaches for obtaining smooth trendlines on the unit simplex are contrasted, in terms of both local polynomial smoothing and multivariate singular spectrum analysis.     

解析2010年欧盟RASFF通报我国食品及相关产品信息

文章对2010年RASFF通报我国食品及相关产品出现的问题进行了汇总和分析,并比较分析了2009年的相关统计数据,同时提出了对我国食品安全预警监管体系建设的相关意见和建议。     

A composite indicator of social inclusion for EU based on the inverted BoD model

In this paper, after reviewing the existing modeling approaches for reverse indicators, we opt for the use of the inverted Benefit-of-the-doubt (IBoD) model when all the considered indicators are reverse, as is the case with composite indicators related to social inclusion. Using EU data for 2014 we provide comparative empirical results using the IBoD model and three data transformations employed by previous studies. We also provide a thorough analysis of the performance of EU countries during the period 2011–2020 in terms of the composite indicator obtained from the IBoD model. Our empirical results indicate that relative performance across the EU has neither improved nor deteriorated and there is evidence supporting local instead of global convergence in social inclusion with certain groups of countries.     

THE IMPACT OF THE EU EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM ON COMPETITIVENESS AND CARBON LEAKAGE: THE ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE

This paper carefully surveys the econometric literature that tests for competitiveness effects and related carbon leakage caused by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The results of this literature tell us that to date there is no evidence of the EU ETS having had widespread negative or positive effects on the competitiveness of regulated firms, nor is there evidence of significant carbon leakage. However, the paper also identifies three important caveats to this general conclusion. Firstly, the evidence we have still largely refers to the first two trading periods, namely Phases I (2005–2007) and II (2008–2012). Secondly, some heterogeneity of estimated effects is observed, but patterns, notably sectoral patterns, hardly emerge. Thirdly, very little explored is whether the EU ETS has had long-term effects on the economy via investment leakage or firm dynamics. Further empirical studies investigating these long-term effects are particularly desirable.     

Evaluating Productivity Growth Measures in the EU

In this paper we evaluate the productivity growth of the member countries in the European Union (EU) before and after the enforcement of the Maastricht convergence criteria in 1992. Total factor productivity was measured by employing the growth-accounting approach and Tornqvist indices. The evaluation of productivity growth was performed by employing the non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in particular years and within three time periods. DEA was also used to evaluate the relative efficiency of EU members with respect to the convergence criteria with important implications for their economic integration. TFP growth was found to have contributed the most in the EU, while its share in the latest recessions was the smallest as compared to labor and capital share.     

BANKING AND BORROWING IN THE EU ETS: A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC MODELLING,CURRENT PROVISIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE DESIGN

Abstract This paper deals with the issue of banking and borrowing in the context of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) by attempting to provide a policy‐oriented unifying theoretical framework. After describing the main features of the EU ETS, the core part of the paper consists of variations of an intertemporal continuous time optimization model. Additional elements include flexibility measures currently discussed and proposed in other emissions trading systems (USA, Australia), which include the use of safety valves, minimum price auctioning or offsets from domestic or international projects.     

2008年欧盟RASFF通报中国食品安全问题分析

根据2008年度欧盟食品和饲料快速预警系统向公众通报进口中国食品出现问题的情况,总结我国被通报问题涉及的安全项目及相关产品,分析问题产生的原因,探讨应对措施,以期减少或避免类似情况的发生;同时,分析该信息预警系统的科学性,希望对我国食品安全管理有借鉴意义。     

Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000.