Demographics and the long-horizon returns of dividend-yield strategies

This paper investigates the relationship between demographic changes and the long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies. We hypothesise that in a world where components of wealth are mentally treated as being non-fungible, the preference for high dividend-paying stocks by older investors means that the excess returns of high dividend-yielding stocks, relative to other stocks, should be positively related to demographic clientele variation. In particular, we find that, consistent with the behavioural life-cycle hypothesis, long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies are positively driven by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the Fama–French factors, inflation rate, consumption growth rate, interest rates, tax clienteles, time trend and alternative definitions of both dividend-yield strategies and demographic variation.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market selection with an endogenous state

This paper explores market selection in general equilibrium when the state of the economy is endogenous. Analysis of consumer survival in this case requires solution of the model’s dynamics, for which evolutionary game theory can be useful; for instance, if the state and beliefs are Markovian and utility logarithmic, then the dynamics of consumption shares are described by the replicator dynamics. This is illustrated in a simple exchange economy, and in a standard monetary economy with multiple long-run equilibria where a plausible form of inflation targeting serves to destabilize a liquidity trap in favor of the target equilibrium.     

A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities

This paper estimates the long- and short-run elasticities for Lotto. It is particularly concerned with the dynamic response to price variations since, for some goods, this has sometimes been used to infer the presence of addiction. The price elasticity is identified through variation in the expected value of a Lotto ticket induced by rollovers whose high frequency results in surprisingly high variation in the expected value of holding a ticket. Unit root tests are applied to the series in order to identify their time series properties and to avoid a spurious regression problem. The series are found to be stationary. We apply instrumental variables to account for the endogeneity which arises due to correlation between the expected value and the dependent sales variable. The estimated long-run elasticity exceeds the short-run elasticity and this supports the hypothesis that there is an element of addictive behaviour in sales. The Lottery is regulated and the regulator's objective is to maximize sales. Our estimated long-run price elasticity of demand is inconsistent with revenue maximization and we find that greater revenue for the 'good causes' could be raised from the game if a smaller proportion of sales revenue were allocated to them.     

Does sentiment explain consumption?

This paper examines whether “consumer sentiment,” an often neglected variable, explains consumption expenditures for Australia. Since household consumption accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. GDP and a similar proportion in other developed economies, fluctuations in consumption may result in significant changes in the state of the economy. Therefore, we develop a theoretical model that suggests why consumer sentiment may influence consumption expenditures. Furthermore, using a carefully specified consumption function as the “test-bed,” we consider empirically whether there is an independent impact of sentiment on consumption. Our results suggest that consumer sentiment does influence variations in consumption expenditure.     

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing markets. We fit a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to empirical housing market data for six OECD countries, US, JP, UK, NL, SE and BE. Two different estimation approaches are considered – Cobb׳s method and Euler discretization. The analysis shows that while Cobb׳s approach describes the long-run stationary density better, Euler discretization is more tailored for time series, as it provides better one-step-ahead predictions. Proceeding using the Euler discretization method we discuss the dynamics of housing markets in terms of the multiple equilibria cusp catastrophe model. By considering the long-term interest rate as an exogenous variable we obtain new insights into the policy implications of interest rate levels, in particular concerning the stability of housing markets.     

THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS

Abstract.  This paper examines the time-series and micro-econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time-series studies distinguish between short-run and long-run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long-run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro-econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.     

Long-run risk and hidden growth persistence

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of asset prices because it tightly intertwines the cyclical and long-run frequencies. Hidden persistence magnifies endogenous changes in the forecast variance of the long-run dividend growth rate despite homoscedastic consumption innovations. Not only does changing forecast variance make discrimination between protracted spells of anemic growth and brief business recessions difficult, it also endogenously induces additional variation in asset price discounts due to the preference for early uncertainty resolution.     

Impact of Changes in Consumer Preferences on Sectoral Labour Reallocation: Evidence from the Italian Economy

This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in consumer preferences on labour reallocation across the Italian economic sectors. For this purpose, coherent sectoral time series of consumer preferences and labour units are constructed from Italian national accounts and consumption expenditure data. In line with recent firm‐level evidence, empirical findings indicate a positive and significant effect of preference changes on labour reallocation. Results are robust to several econometric specifications, different procedures to elicit preference changes, as well as the introduction of time‐varying price coefficient and sector‐specific effects of total consumption expenditure.     

产品属性对消费者产品选择影响效应分析——数码相机产品设计实证研究

面对中国市场的消费升级，消费需求出现多样化、复杂化。为了满足这样一种变化的需求，企业需要不断推出功能多样的新产品，来应对激烈的市场竞争。如何把握消费者对于产品属性的偏好、预测他们的选择行为，对于企业具有重大意义。文章选择了消费类数码相机（以下简称数码相机）市场，采用联合分析方法，对于数码相机产品属性对消费者产品选择影响效应进行分析。通过文章的研究可以发现，消费者在选择数码相机时，他们最关心的属性是价格，其次是像素、颜色、变焦倍数和品牌，最后是LCD大小，消费者对于数码相机各个属性的不同水平也表现出一定的规律。这一研究可以估计消费者对于不同属性组合的消费类数码相机的效用大小，从而为企业进行决策提供一定的依据。     

Characterization of stationary preferences in a continuous time framework

We characterize preference relations on continuous time consumption paths which admit an exponential discounting representation. We provide two theorems as such, one in the cardinal framework and another in the ordinal framework. Our characterizations parallel the known characterizations in discrete time framework. In the cardinal framework, we adopt the axioms of Epstein (1983), which characterize a stationary preference relation in discrete time, and obtain the exponential discounting model as a special case of the discounting model proposed by Uzawa (1968). In the ordinal framework, we adopt the axioms of Bleichrodt et al. (2008) which were proposed to generalize Koopmans’ classical characterization of stationary preferences.     

Cointegration in a macroeconomic system

This paper investigates the long-run relationships within a set of six quarterly time-series on the Austrian economy by means of cointegration. After analysing the univariate properties, especially with respect to the appropriate seasonal filter, the maximum-likelihood method proposed by Johansen (1988) is applied to estimate and test the cointegrating relationships. We found three such relations, implying that the system is driven by three independent stochastic time trends. In a next stage we investigate whether the empirically determined cointegrating relationships are compatible with implications derived from the neoclassical growth model with exogenous stochastic technical progress. It is found that the Austrian data strongly reject the propositions that the real interest rate and the log ratios of consumption to output, investment to output, and the real gross wage sum to output are stationary.     

Soviet Household Saving Function

In this paper, the Soviet household saving function is estimated using reconstructed data from the unpublished archival material: the Soviet family budget survey data. In addition, a shortage indicator is developed to capture both household purchasing power in comparison with the availability of consumer goods in the official market and the spillover of the household demand for consumer goods from the official retail market to the secondary one. A long-run solution of the Soviet household saving function, which includes a shortage indicator as one of the independent variables, is estimated using these data. The reliability of the long-run solution is confirmed by the short-run dynamics of the Soviet household saving function, which satisfy super-exogeneity, parameter constancy, and several diagnostic tests. The highly significant coefficient of the shortage indicator suggests that Soviet household saving behaviour was affected by shortages of consumer goods during 1965–1989. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Consumer Stockpiling and Price Competition in Differentiated Markets

In many storable-goods markets, firms are often aware that consumers may strategically adjust purchase timing in response to expected price dynamics. For example, in periods when prices are low, consumers stockpile for future consumption. This paper investigates the dynamic impact of consumer stockpiling on competing firms' strategic pricing decisions in differentiated markets. The necessity of equilibrium consumer storage for storable products is re-examined. It is shown that preference heterogeneity generates differential consumer stockpiling propensity, thereby intensifying future price competition. As a result, consumer storage may not necessarily arise as an equilibrium outcome. Economic forces are also investigated that may mitigate the competition-intensifying effect of consumer inventories and that, hence, may lead to equilibrium consumer storage.     

Size and power of tests of stationarity in highly autocorrelated time series

Tests of stationarity are routinely applied to highly autocorrelated time series. Following Kwiatkowski et al. (J. Econom. 54 (1992) 159), standard stationarity tests employ a rescaling by an estimator of the long-run variance of the (potentially) stationary series. This paper analytically investigates the size and power properties of such tests when the series are strongly autocorrelated in a local-to-unity asymptotic framework. It is shown that the behavior of the tests strongly depends on the long-run variance estimator employed, but is in general highly undesirable. Either the tests fail to control size even for strongly mean reverting series, or they are inconsistent against an integrated process and discriminate only poorly between stationary and integrated processes compared to optimal statistics.     

Equivalent representations of non-exponential discounting models

I characterize the entire class of consumption rules for finite-horizon models in which consumption is proportional to lifetime wealth. Any such rule can be obtained from a preference model with CRRA period utility. In a steady state with constant interest rates, a proportional consumption rule can be derived from a model with time-consistent preferences or from a model with possibly time-inconsistent preferences in which a household continually reoptimizes future utility discounted relative to the present instant. These two preference models will only coincide for the special case when the discount function is exponential. More generally, there will be two distinct yet observationally equivalent preference models. Hyperbolic-like discounting may arise because that is a simpler way for the brain to process a standard exponential discount function after accounting for mortality risk.     

On the optimal accumulation of renewable energy generation capacity

As fossil fuels are finite and responsible for environmental problems, renewables have been promoted in recent decades. To study the optimal accumulation of a generation capacity for renewable energy (backstop) and the trade-off between capital investments, backstop capacity investments and consumption, we develop a capital-energy economy with exhaustible fossil fuels. It turns out that optimal economic evolution and, therefore, the steady-state levels of capital, backstop capacity, and consumption depend on the capital endowment and the time preference rate. If the latter is low and the former is high, an intertemporal consumption trade-off renders the accumulation of an excess capacity optimal. In contrast, given a low capital endowment and a high time preference rate, the trade-off is not beneficial, so that capacity investments are nil for all points of time.     

社会地位对宏观经济变量的动态影响——基于两部门搜索均衡模型的研究

本文将失业理论的搜索模型与社会地位结合起来考察社会地位的动态影响。研究发现社会地位引入效用函数等价于代表性家庭时间偏好率的降低,利用对数效用函数,得到经济系统均衡状态存在的唯一性。在均衡状态下,更强的社会地位意识意味着更高的储蓄率和资本积累,以及提供更多的社会空闲职位、更高的工资、更高的就业率、更为宽松的劳动力市场和更低的利率。     

Dynamic theory of preferences: Habit formation and taste for variety

We analyze individual preferences over infinite horizon consumption choices. Our axioms provide the foundation for a recursive representation of the utility function that contains as particular cases the classical Koopmans representation (Koopmans (1960)) as well as the habit formation specification.We examine some of the consequences of our axiomatization by considering a standard consumer choice problem, and show that typically in the space of concave utility functions satisfying our axioms the consumer displays a taste for variety. The latter means that such a consumer selects optimally time variant consumption programs for any given time invariant sequence of commodities’ relative prices and for all possible sequences of market discount factors. In contrast, if a concave utility function satisfies Koopmans’ axioms the consumer does not display a taste for variety.     

The market versus the analyst: Biases and predictive ability

Using the end of the quiet period (QPX) after an IPO as a venue for testing, we examine the long-run predictive ability of analysts and the market. Not only do we find that the analysts are reasonably good at predicting returns for at least a year, we also find that the market in general is at least as good—even after adjusting for the analysts’ recommendations. Separating the QPX market reaction into retail-dominated versus institutional-dominated – based on trade size – we find consistent evidence that only institutional-dominated reactions are positively related to longer-run return. When we examine 5-year survival prediction, we again find that only the institutional-dominated QPX reaction is positively related to survivability. There was no evidence that analysts were able to predict 5 years survival.