Property rights for natural resources and sustainable growth in a two-country trade model

We analyze a dynamic two-country trade model between a technological leading country and a technological follower economy. The output production in the follower economy needs a renewable natural resource as an essential input. We first prove that the innovation developed in the leading country guarantees sustainable growth in this economy. Moreover, trade of innovation also enables sustainability in the resource-dependent economy. We analyze different property rights regimes depending on whether the resource is managed by a central authority (a monopoly firm in the leading economy or the government in the follower country) or the exploitation rights are equally distributed among many harvesters in the follower country. The second main goal of the paper is to analyze how the ownership and distribution of the exploitation rights upon the natural resource may affect the sustainable growth rate for the two trading economies, the resource conservation and the consumers’ welfare. We obtain the standard result that the resource is better preserved when owned by a monopolistic agent (either a foreign firm or the government). When the property rights belong to a monopoly located in the leading country, the two economies grow faster than when they belong to either the government or many owners in the follower country. When the resource is monopoly-owned, consumers in the leading economy attain a higher welfare when the monopoly is located in this country, but the equivalent is not true for consumers in the follower economy. The comparison of welfares with the case of multiple owners is unclear.     

A stochastic dynamic model of trade and growth: Convergence and diversification

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a deterministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversifies. Numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks. In the limit, when there is no uncertainty, there is no convergence and countries may specialize permanently. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in this setup. Through an analytical example we also illustrate the importance of country specific risk in delivering our results.     

Incremental trade policy and endogenous growth:: A q-theory approach

Most trade-and-growth studies focus on the growth effects of autarky-to-free-trade changes, rather than those of incremental liberalisations. This paper characterizes how the strength and sign of openness-and-growth links depend upon the nature and level of trade barriers. For most types of trade barriers, we find that liberalisation raises or lowers growth depending upon the initial level of the barrier. This suggests empirical studies that pool data from high and low protection nations are mis-specified, and that policy lessons based on autarky-to-free-trade results are of limited use to policymakers.     

Environmental responsibility and policy in a two-country dynamic input–output model

Increased spatial dependency of economic activities, as well as spatial differentiation of production and consumption, has implications for environmental policy. One of the issues that has gained importance is the responsibility for the emissions from products that cross national boundaries during the environmental policy's lifetime. This paper discusses the different ethical views of environmental responsibility. Furthermore, the policy measures that are associated with the different viewpoints are analyzed in a novel dynamic two-country two-sector dynamic input–output model. A numerical example is modeled to assess taxing schemes that are based on these ethical viewpoints. The results show that a tax on the ‘embodied’ environmental pressure, which is generally viewed as ethically preferable, is less effective that the current policy of taxing consumers of products. Our discussion however shows that these results are very dependent on the model structure and initial parameters that are used. Nevertheless, the model illustrates that policies that are based on ethically superior standpoints may have detrimental distortionary effects in the dynamic setting.     

A trade union model with endogenous militancy: interpreting the French case

This paper aims to provide a simple trade union model which highlights some of the distinctive institutional features of French unionism. The model focuses on the determinants of militancy and membership in a frictionless economy. It brings into the picture three types of agents and their specific behaviour: firms accept to pay a premium in order to avoid strikes, individuals participate in the union in order to maximise their expected income and union leadership seeks to maximise his/her net personal gain. By adapting militancy—broadly defined as hard stance during the annual wage bargaining—the union leader may achieve a unionisation rate consistent with his/her own objectives. It is shown that a non-Walrasian labour market equilibrium exists wherein real wages, employment, union size and militancy are jointly determined. In comparative statics, the model predicts a negative relationship between militancy and membership; recent evolutions of the main French union confederations tend to support this conclusion.     

A monopolistic-competition model of international trade with external economies of scale

This paper presents a two-country model of monopolistic competition in which differentiated products are produced subject to external economies of scale and two countries differ only in size measured by the factor endowment. It is shown that under free trade, the larger country has positive net exports of differentiated products, which leads to its gains from trade, while the smaller country may lose from trade. Noteworthy is that the industrial agglomeration induced by inter-industry trade is possibly harmful to both countries if the two countries are similar in size and the taste for product diversity is sufficiently strong.     

Congestible public goods and local indeterminacy: A two-sector endogenous growth model

This paper shows that the congestible public goods can generate local indeterminacy in a two-sector, constant-return human capital enhanced growth model. While the productive public good exerts positive sector-specific externalities, the congestion effect generates negative aggregate externalities. The sector-specific externalities alone arising from productive public goods cannot establish local indeterminacy without the combination of negative externality in a model with social constant return technology. Congestible public good generates local indeterminacy if the degree of productive public good externality and the degree of congestion effect are large enough. The condition for indeterminacy is independent of the factor intensity rankings. The conditions are quantitatively assessed and the required parameter values for the degrees of public good externality and congestion are consistent with the estimated values in existing literature.     

Accounting for growth in retail trade: an international productivity comparison

In this paper we argue that the standard approach for measuring output and productivity in the trade sector has become obsolete. The key problem is that changes in prices of goods purchased for resale are not accounted for. We outline a consistent accounting framework for measuring trade productivity and provide new estimates, taking into account purchase prices of goods sold in a double deflation procedure. We find strong productivity improvements in the UK and US compared to France, Germany and The Netherlands since the mid-1990s. This finding is robust for various productivity measurement models.

A regional model of endogenous growth without scale assumptions

In this paper we model growth using a scale-neutral approach to innovation allowing differences between regions to emerge due to regional mechanisms. In this model, agglomeration is growth enhancing as the scale effect for innovation arises from greater access to knowledge rather than any assumed scale effects in growth-modelling techniques. Furthermore, entrepreneurs are assumed to choose the location of firms endogenously so as to minimize the costs of innovation, transport and living. The effects of such mechanisms are such that any policies that increase knowledge spillovers between locations will enhance growth and equality, but may be destabilizing for agglomeration.     

A two sector endogenous growth model with habit formation

In this paper, we study an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital in which consumption habits enter the utility function multiplicatively. We show that although the utility function with multiplicative habits is nonconcave and unbounded, an interior optimal growth path still exists, it is uniquely determined and it converges to a balanced growth path. We also find that habit formation in consumption lowers the convergence speed of the optimal path toward the balanced growth path.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

基于灰色多层次的外贸公司经营预警

针对外贸公司在进出口经营过程中所发生的风险预警问题,结合公司内外风险因素,运用灰色层次分析方法,文章建立了外贸公司经营预警灰色多层次评价模型,并应用于企业实例之中。     

Human capital,investment and growth: Some results from an endogenous growth model

Recent theoretical literature on the sources of economic growth has emphasized the role of human capital as an internal contributing force in the growth process. Empirical results reported in this paper provide support for this theoretical proposition. Cross-country data from 32 developing countries indicate that human capital (as alternatively measured by the primary school enrollment rate or the adult literacy rate) exerts a significant positive impact upon output growth.     

化解物价上涨应强化内外贸一体化政策

当前,我国出现的结构性通货膨胀,其根本原因之一就是流动性过剩.因此,解决了流动性过剩问题,物价上涨问题也会迎刃而解.目前,一种比较流行的观点倾向于把流动性过剩作为一个货币供给量问题,以为只要采取紧缩的货币政策,就可以解决我国的流动性过剩问题.事实上,并非如此简单.     

Risk aversion in a model of endogenous growth

Despite the evidence on incomplete financial markets and substantial risk being borne by innovators, current models of growth through creative destruction predominantly model innovators’ as risk neutral. Risk aversion is expected to reduce the incentive to innovate and we might fear that without insurance innovation completely disappears in the long run. The present paper introduces risk averse agents into an occupational choice model of endogenous growth in which insurance against failure to innovate is not available. We derive a clear negative relationship between the level of risk aversion and long run growth. Surprisingly, we show that in an equilibrium there exists a cut-off value of risk aversion below which the growth rate of the mass of innovators tends to a strictly positive constant. In this case, innovation persists on the long run and consumption per capita grows at a strictly positive rate. On the other hand, for levels of risk aversion above the cut-off value, the economy eventually stagnates.     

Public inputs and dynamic producer behavior: endogenous growth in U.S. agriculture

This paper is an attempt to understand the impact of public R&D and public infrastructure on the performance of the U.S. agricultural sector during the last part of the twentieth century. A neoclassical Solow growth model is not sufficient for this understanding given the sustained growth performance of the sector. We base our analysis on a well-known endogenous growth model, the ‘AK model’ where non-convexities are introduced through non-rival inputs. Based on these models and within the dynamic models that rationalize private and public decision making, we have identified three testable hypotheses regarding the aggregate agricultural production technology. They are: (1) increasing returns to scale over all inputs; (2) positive effect of additional units of public inputs on the long-run demand for private capital; and (3) negative impact of public inputs on cost. They are tested using two estimation procedures on two data sets for U.S. agriculture. One, covering the period 1948–1994, developed by USDA, the other, covering the period 1926–1990, from Thirtle et al. Maximum likelihood estimates do not conform to the regularity and behavioral properties of the economic model rendering them unusable for testing these hypotheses. Bayesian estimates, although not totally satisfactory, do not reject the hypotheses after prior imposition of some of the regularity conditions. This supports the notion of an important role for public inputs on the rapid and sustained growth of the sector. We calculate that, on average, one additional dollar spent on public R&D stock reduces private cost by $6.5, implying a return on these public expenses of 190%.

交通机动化爆炸性增长的模型分析

近年来我国城市交通出现较为严重的拥挤,其中一个重要的背景原因就是机动化进程不但呈现加速趋势,而且其增长具有爆炸性,而以往对机动化水平的预测明显偏低。基于交通规划预测中常用的逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型分析了爆炸性机动化的形成机制,并在建立收入增长的动态模型的基础上进行了数值模拟,进而提出了相关的政策建议。