Demand for telecommunication services in developing countries

Living standards and economic growth in developing countries are invariably linked to the availability and use of telecom services. Effective policy decisions require the best estimates of the drivers of these services. In this paper, telecommunications demand is estimated in models for residential mainline and mobile telephone service for developing countries for the period 1996–2003. The paper tests for cross-price effects between mainline and mobile service and its findings have important policy implications. It finds residential monthly price elasticity to be insignificant for developing countries, but the connection elasticity is larger than generally found in the literature. Mobile monthly price elasticities are very large. A new and important empirical finding is that although wireline phones are substitutes in the mobile market, the contrary is not true—mobile phones are not substitutes in the wireline market, and in fact may be considered complements. This lack of symmetry has important implications for properly defining telecom markets. Universal service subsidies and competitive market initiatives should be reevaluated in light of the paper's elasticity estimates. Increased competition, income growth and enhanced education may be the ultimate universal service promoters.     

Recent developments in US wireline telecommunications

This article presents a selective survey of several recent developments in the US market for wireline telecommunications services spanning the 2003–2005 period. Specifically, the article discusses the recent decline in overall telephone penetration rates, the substitution between wireline and wireless telephony, intermodal competition issues raised in the context of the FCCs review of the Cingular/AT&T Wireless merger, and the potentially anticompetitive effects of incumbent local exchange carrier tying of voice and DSL service. The article identifies several areas for future research motivated by each one of these developments.     

Sovereignty and universal service: sacred cows in the satellite industry

Globalisation strikes at the cornerstone of telecom policy — i.e., the sovereign right of every country to license the provision and use of telecoms within its borders. Sovereignty has historically been protected by means of a licence, the fees, conditions and procedures for which vary significantly around the world. In the satellite industry, those countries with the lowest teledensities tend to have the highest licence fees. Although there is a trend towards lower licence fees for subscribers, some regulators are just shifting the burden to service providers or the satellite operators. The European Commission and the European Conference of Post and Telecom Administrations (CEPT) have taken steps towards greater harmonisation of licensing conditions, one of which is universal service obligations (USOs). More than half of all countries have USOs which originated in the days of monopoly. With growing competition globally, assumptions about USOs need to be challenged. Regulators should refocus their energies from imposing tough conditions on the satellite industry to removing regulatory roadblocks.     

Telecom reform: progress and prospects

The dominant activity in telecom reform is now shifting from policy development to implementation. This is a more difficult task that depends heavily on competent, independent regulation in both developed and developing countries. A speed up in the remaining steps to complete full institutional restructuring is needed, including clarification of the roles for national and regional regulation and for international governance. New national regulators must rapidly establish transparent participatory processes and decision criteria to minimise uncertainty and enhance credibility. Experience to date indicates that competition in reality may be a more limited instrument of policy than it has been in theory, and the goal of a global universal service will remain elusive unless given a higher priority in policy and practice. Telecom reform is leading to increasing integration of telecom with other sectors of the economy, and telecom policy with broader economic and social policy. Telecom networks are providing the foundation of information infrastructures, which in turn are rapidly becoming an indispensable component of the 21st century knowledge infrastructures. For the future, telecom policy and regulation must facilitate knowledge network development in new knowledge-based economies and societies. This raises a question of whether telecom regulation should assume a more proactive role in facilitating new network service applications, especially in the public sector.     

Quantifying price-driven wireless substitution in telephony

For the better part of a decade, a non-trivial and steadily increasing share of households in the United States has come to rely exclusively on wireless technology for their voice communications needs. Aggregate data show clearly (1) that the share of wireless-only households has risen steadily in recent years; while (2) the price of wireless service has fallen substantially relative to traditional landline service. The aggregate data are therefore consistent with the hypothesis that wireless/wireline cross-price elasticities are positive and economically significant. However, econometric corroboration of this conjecture has proven elusive in the existing empirical literature, which has relied on datasets compiled at the turn of the millennium, when wireless substitution was very limited. Partly in response to this dearth of econometric evidence, regulators and competition authorities in the US have generally been reluctant to conclude that wireless voice service represents a meaningful economic substitute for traditional wireline telephony. In the absence of reliable econometric estimates, even the sign of the relevant cross-price elasticities is an open question: The majority of US households maintain both a landline and at least one wireless connection, so it is unclear, ex ante, whether the two services are substitutes or complements. Thus, it is critical to identify consumer behavior at the margin. Using state-level panel data from a relatively recent time period (2001-2007), this study develops and estimates a demand system that permits evaluation of the own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities of demand for wireless and wireline telephony in the United States. A one percent decrease in the price of wireless service is estimated to decrease the demand for fixed-line service by approximately 1.2-1.3%, and the parameter estimates imply that the Slutsky symmetry holds for the demand system. These results substantially exceed prior econometric estimates from the existing empirical literature, and provide evidence that wireless voice service has evolved into a strong economic substitute for traditional landline service. The parameter estimates from the demand system suggest that roughly two thirds of observed landline attrition in the United States over the sample period is attributable to the observed decline in the relative price of wireless service.     

Broadband expectations and the convergence of ranks

Broadband Internet service to widely held to be a significant contributor to economic development and global competitiveness, and comparison of adoption rates across countries are common. This paper presents evidence that the relative broadband Internet adoption ranks across the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (“OECD”) countries are converging to the wireline telephone adoption ranks in the mid 1990s. This was a time when wireline telephone service had reached maturity, but before consumers began to abandon traditional telephone services for mobile services and Internet telephone technologies. As such, in the absence of better data on household adoption, wireline telephone rank is a useful proxy for a country's ultimate fixed-line broadband penetration rank. Having such an educated guess available regarding broadband rank should reduce the amount of anxiety over rankings, since similar rankings across the two services implies suitable broadband performance. Large departures, alternately, may be a cause for concern or delight. Like prior analyses, the findings suggest that the adoption of communications services is largely an economic and demographic issue.     

Disconnecting: Understanding decline in universal service

At a time when choices for voice service and funding for universal service were growing, the United States experienced an unprecedented drop in household telephone penetration. Universal service in voice telephony is generally taken for granted in the United States. However, recent data from the FCC shows a significant decline in the number of U.S. households that have a telephone of any kind (including mobile), from a peak in telephone penetration of 95.5% in March 2003 down to 92.9% in November 2005. This decline is both statistically significant and meaningful, as approximately 2.6% of U.S. households could not easily reach 911 for emergencies. This study uses regression analysis of state-level data to determine what drove this decline in universal service. The results demonstrate that the recent decline in universal service in the U.S. is driven by an increase in black population, inadequate consumer protection laws, and increases in wireless telephones per capita. Lifeline effectiveness does not appear to mitigate the decline in penetration, while Link-Up effectiveness may have a limited effect.     

Technical innovation and 3.5 mobile phone generation: Lessons from Korea

In 1996, the Korean mobile communication market was the first in the world to commercialize the code division multiple access (CDMA). Since then, the voice-based mobile phone market has continued to grow and has now reached near saturation. Having recognized the potential of the mobile data service as a new source of profit, telecommunication operators are scrambling to evolve 3.5 generation (3.5G) technology in order to lead market competition. Recently, the Korean 3.5G mobile telecom market has faced stiff competition from CDMA-based EVDO Rev.A and global system for mobile telecommunications (GSM)-based high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA). In addition, the world's first wireless LAN-based wireless broadband internet (WiBro) service was commercialized in June, 2006. This paper reviews the current status of the 3.5G technology and analyzes the service standardization strategies from the viewpoint of technological evolutions. This paper also suggests implications for Korea's specific circumstances where different mobile telecom technologies complement and compete with one another. Korea's experiences may serve as important lessons for other countries or operators who try to introduce the 3G and look beyond mobile telecom technologies.     

Convergence and new regulatory frameworks: A comparative study of regulatory approaches to Internet telephony

As an archetype of convergence, Internet telephony has been questioning the continuing appropriateness of the current telecommunications policy and regulation. This article examines how policy makers and regulators in the US, the EU, Japan and Singapore have responded to the challenges brought about by Internet telephony. Their common approach seems to apply the existing regulatory framework to this new service. The authors argue that those responses will not be aligned with the dynamically changing communications environment and explain two key shifts taking place in the communications industry that should be taken into account to form more appropriate regulatory frameworks.     

Exploring the potential of wireless technologies to accelerate universal Internet access in Ghana

Ghana was one of the first countries in sub-Saharan Africa to be connected to the Internet, yet has very low Internet usage (5.3 users per 100 inhabitants). A qualitative study including in-depth interviews with ISPs explored Internet diffusion in Ghana. Findings suggest that due to Ghana's inefficient and outdated fixed-line infrastructure, universal Internet access goals might not be achievable through fixed-line technologies. Rather, wireless technologies may be more efficient. However, high access costs continue to be a barrier. Policy options to encourage widespread deployment of wireless broadband and cost reduction are presented as suggestions for further research. These include using universal service funds to expand the national backbone with an open access high capacity wireless backbone to reach unserved and underserved areas, reducing license and regulatory fees for the wireless industry to encourage coverage and capacity expansion, and mandatory infrastructure sharing to reduce cost.     

Market Structure and Broadband Internet Quality

This paper investigates the effects of the number of firms and their product‐type on broadband Internet quality. We estimate a model that relates the actual speeds delivered, in census block groups to the number of wireline and wireless internet service providers (ISP's), cost and demand conditions, and correction terms for the endogeneity of market structure. Model estimates show four main findings. Wireline speeds are often higher in markets with two or more wireline ISP's than with a single wireline ISP. Excluding the correction terms from the analysis understates this effect. Increases in wireline speeds are larger in the upstream direction, and there is no relationship between wireline speeds and the number of wireless ISP's.     

Internet telephony: Costs,pricing, and policy

This article analyzes Internet Service Provider costs and regulatory and policy issues raised by Internet telephony. Transport and non-technical items such as customer service, sales and marketing, represent a substantial portion of an ISP’s costs with Internet telephony. Pricing models and yield management techniques supporting Internet voice services might be employed for other Internet differentiated services as well. An integrated regulatory framework will be required, because of convergence, to formulate policies for multimedia services. We conclude that governments should develop appropriate policies without introducing economic and technical distortions into the nascent Internet telephony market.     

Fast Internet: An analysis about capacities,price structures and government intervention

While about 20% of all private households in the US had access to the Internet in 1997, the Internet penetration in Western Europe was significantly lower with little more than 5%. A key factor to explain the different penetration levels in the US and Western Europe is the pricing policy. In the US the pricing is heavily influenced by regulation. The flat rate pricing for local service stimulated rapid growth of the Internet. However, the regulatory regime that helped the Internet to succeed is now threatened by the same success. A comparison of the Internet in the US and the videotex systems deployed in France and Germany in the 1980s reveals an astonishing number of similarities. But there remains one significant difference, the pricing policy. Today, the telephony access network is perceived as a bottleneck by Internet users. Users demand more speed. Given the expected growth of the Internet and the demand for speed, the US telecommunications industry invests heavily in the local loop and sets up another four national long-distance networks. These investors do believe that demand for capacity will make a quantum leap.     

Estimating the impact of low-income universal service programs

This policy study uses U.S. Census microdata to evaluate how subsidies for universal telephone service vary in their impact across low-income racial groups, gender, age, and home ownership. Our demand specification includes both the subsidized monthly price (Lifeline program) and the subsidized initial connection price (Linkup program) for local telephone service. Our quasi-maximum likelihood estimation controls for location differences and instruments for price endogeneity. The microdata allow us to estimate the effects of demographics on both elasticities of telephone penetration and the level of telephone penetration. Based on our preferred estimates, the subsidy programs increased aggregate penetration by 6.1% for households below the poverty line. Our results suggest that automatic enrollment programs are important and that Linkup is more cost-effective than Lifeline, which calls into question a recent FCC (2012) decision to reduce Linkup subsidies in favor of Lifeline. Our study can inform the evaluation of similar universal service policies for Internet access.     

The phoneless in the broadband age: A pilot study in Massachusetts

Questions about universal service continue to evolve as information and communication technology advances, bringing new platforms, services, and business models. Concerns about exclusion remain, particularly in times of transition to new technologies and platforms. While the universal service literature is rich in econometric studies that indicate the drivers of household telephone penetration, without qualitative data directly from those households that experience phonelessness, we cannot understand the causes well enough to design effective policy. This research explores why people are phoneless in the current environment of increased platform and business model choices. Particular focus is placed on understanding the relationship between new technology, platforms and business models and phonelessness. Data is obtained from surveys completed by approximately 100 individuals in Massachusetts who are currently without any voice connection, either landline or mobile, or have been sometime in the past ten years. The survey includes questions about different platforms and communication services in order to learn how they have led to phonelessness. The results of the pilot study show that the vast majority of phoneless households do not choose to be phoneless. The study also shows that the most frequent causes of phonelessness in this population are unemployment and unpredictable bills. Many instances of unpredictable bills leading to phonelessness occur with wireless service or bundled services but are the result of business models for service provision rather than the platforms themselves. Prepaid wireless service is a market-based solution that helps households prevent phonelessness by reducing unpredictability. Universal service policy for voice and broadband can better reduce exclusion with greater attention to business models and practices versus technologies and platforms, and increased emphasis on prepaid service to reduce unpredictability.     

Retaining telecommunication services when universal service is defined by functionality: Japanese consumers' willingness-to-pay

This study uses contingent valuation to measure Japanese customers' willingness-to-pay to maintain combinations of five telecommunication services that are considered substitutes if universal service is defined on the basis of functionality. The analysis revealed the following results. First, consumers are more willing to pay to retain voice communication services than data transmission services. Second, customers accept Internet Protocol telephony as a substitute for plain old telephone service (POTS) as a universal service, and they are willing to pay much more than Japan's current Universal Service Fund charge. Third, even when mobile phone service (MOB) is available, consumers will pay to retain fixed-line voice services. Finally, consumers have an equal desire to keep fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and fixed-line voice services, but it is less than the demand for MOB. Thus, under the present definition of POTS as a universal service, FTTH could be considered as a basic telecommunication service.     

The mixed blessing of a deregulatory endpoint for the public switched telephone network

Receiving authority to dismantle the wireline public switched telephone network (PSTN) will deliver a mixture of financial benefits and costs to incumbent carriers and also jeopardize longstanding legislative and regulatory goals seeking ubiquitous, affordable and fully interconnected networks. Even if incumbent carriers continue to provide basic telephone services via wireless facilities, they will benefit from substantial relaxation of common carriage duties, no longer having to serve as the carrier of last resort and having the opportunity to decide whether and where to provide service. On the other hand, incumbent carriers may have underestimated the substantial financial and marketplace advantages they also will likely lose in the deregulatory process. Legislators and policy makers also may have underestimated the impact of no longer having the ability to impose common carrier mandates that require carriers to interconnect so that end users have complete access to network services regardless of location.This paper will identify the potential problems resulting from prospective decisions by National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs), such as the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC), to grant authority for telecommunications service providers to discontinue PSTN services. The paper also will consider whether in the absence of common carrier duties, private carriers providing telephone services, including Voice over the Internet Protocol (VoIP), voluntarily will agree to interconnect their networks. The paper will examine three recent carrier interconnection issues with an eye toward assessing whether a largely unregulated marketplace will create incentives for carriers to interconnect networks so that consumers will have ubiquitous access to PSTN replacement and other broadband services.The paper concludes that private carrier interconnection models and information service regulatory oversight may not solve all disputes, or promote universal service public policy goals. Recent Internet interconnection and television program carriage disputes involving major players such as Comcast, Level 3, Fox, Cablevision and Google point to the possibility of increasingly contentious negotiations that could result in balkanized telecommunications networks with at least temporary blockages to desired content and services by some consumers.     

Internationalisation in the telecommunications services industry: Literature review and research agenda

A review of 356 publications addressing internationalisation aspects of the telecommunications services industry (TSI) shows a growing body of contributions, mainly covering research themes like settlement and regulation policy, strategic alliances and incumbents’ reactions to deregulation as well as opening of markets in-depth until recently. Wireline telephony TSI has been the dominant segment in most contributions, while the mobile or broadband Internet segments only featured in more recent work. Segment characteristics like non-uniform barriers to entry, different reasons for alliances and non-uniform levels of internationalisation differentiate these TSI segments pose a number of additional questions concerning telecom firms’ internationalisation strategy and success promising for future research.