The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview

In 2015, Germany introduced a statutory hourly minimum wage that was not only universally binding but also set at a relatively high level. We discuss the short‐run effects of this new minimum wage on a wide set of socioeconomic outcomes, such as employment and working hours, earnings and wage inequality, dependent and self‐employment, as well as reservation wages and satisfaction. We also discuss difficulties in the implementation of the minimum wage and the measurement of its effects related to non‐compliance and suitability of data sources. Two years after the minimum wage introduction, the following conclusions can be drawn: while hourly wages increased for low‐wage earners, some small negative employment effects are also identifiable. The effects on aspired goals, such as poverty and inequality reduction, have not materialised in the short run. Instead, a tendency to reduce working hours is found, which alleviates the desired positive impact on monthly income. Additionally, the level of non‐compliance was substantial in the short run, thus drawing attention to problems when implementing such a wide reaching policy.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON REAL WAGE CYCLICALITY WITHIN EMPLOYER–EMPLOYEE MATCHES

In the most thorough study to date on wage cyclicality among job stayers, Devereux's (2001) analysis of men in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) produced two puzzling findings: (1) the real wages of salaried workers are noncyclical, and (2) wage cyclicality among hourly workers differs between two alternative wage measures. We examine these puzzles with additional evidence from other sources. Devereux's finding of noncyclical real wages among salaried job stayers is not replicated in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data. The NLSY data, however, do corroborate his finding of a discrepancy for hourly workers between the cyclicality of the two alternative wage measures. Evidence from the PSID Validation Study contradicts Devereux's conjecture that the discrepancy might be due to a procyclical bias from measurement error in average hourly earnings. Evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey supports his hypothesis that overtime work accounts for part (but not all) of the discrepancy. We conclude that job stayers' real average hourly earnings are substantially procyclical and that an important portion of that procyclicality probably is due to compensation beyond base wages.     

The Polish wage inequality explosion1

This paper presents and analyses the sharp increase in hourly wage inequality after 1998 in Poland. The increase was similar in magnitude to the much‐studied increase in British wage inequality during the 1980s. Using data from the Polish Labour Force Survey, we find this increase to be associated with rising wage differentials and within‐group variances at both the upper and lower ends of the wage distribution. These increases are associated with differences in wage‐setting patterns between the public and private sector as well as with the rapid increase in demand for educated labour. One important difference between the sectors is the lack of an impact of local labour market conditions, or wage curve, clearly evident in private sector wages, on public sector wages.     

How fragile are male labor supply function estimates?

We estimate male wage and nonwage income effects using linear specifications spanning three techniques (ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects), two wage measures (reported hourly wages and average hourly earnings), and sample stratification by pay scheme (salaried versus hourly paid). Our regressions encompass the one-period static and perfect-foresight life-cycle models. The static model implies exogenous random person-specific effects, a negative nonwage income coefficient, and a positive labor supply substitution effect. The life-cycle model implies endogenous individual-specific effects, a positive wage coefficient, and a zero nonwage income coefficient. Neither the one-period static nor the perfect-foresight life-cycle models are implied by the data for salaried workers while the static model is consistent with the data for hourly paid workers if income taxes are ignored.     

Assessing the Possible Antipoverty Effects of Recent Rises in Age‐Specific Minimum Wages in New Zealand

Real minimum wages increased by nearly 33 percent for adults and 123 percent for teenagers in New Zealand between 1999 and 2008. Where fewer than 2 percent of workers were being paid a minimum wage at the outset of this sample period, more than 8 percent of adult workers and 60 percent of teenage workers were receiving hourly earnings close to the minimum wage by the end of this period. These policy changes provide a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the minimum wage on poverty. Although minimum wage workers are more likely to live in the poorest households, they are relatively widely dispersed throughout the income distribution. This is particularly true of teenage minimum wage workers. Furthermore, low‐income households often do not contain any working members. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in minimum wages, even without a loss in employment or hours of work, would lower the relative poverty rate by less than one‐tenth of a percentage point.     

The unequal distribution of unequal pay – An empirical analysis of the gender wage gap in Switzerland

In this paper we analyze the distribution of the gender wage gap. Using microdata for Switzerland we estimate conditional wage distribution functions and find that the total wage gap and its discrimination component are not constant over the range of wages. At low wages an overproportional part of the wage gap is due to discrimination. In a further analysis of specific individuals we examine the wage gap at different quantiles and propose a new measure to assess equal earnings opportunities. These additional results reveal that it is primarily low education that causes the large discrimination component at low wages. First version received: April 1999/Final version accepted: July 2000     

The Impact of Exporting and Export Destination on Manufacturing Wages: Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates wage effects of trade status of African firms. Using data for manufacturing firms, we find a positive overall association between individual earnings and export status. Moreover, the skill wage premium in exporting firms is significantly higher. These results are consistent with either trade inducing higher wages in the exporting country, or with more productive (higher wage) firms self‐selecting into exporting. The results are not robust, however, to disaggregation by export destination. Exporting to outside Africa generates a negative wage premium whereas exporting to African markets yields a positive premium in export firms of the exporting country. This suggests that there is a disciplining effect on the wages of exporting firms only when exporting is to more competitive markets.     

Conditional Earnings Subsidies for Low Earners

In order to be eligible for in-work tax credits, it is often not enough to have low earnings. In Ireland, New Zeand the United Kingdom, for example, for eligibility, it is also required that the number of hours worked is sufficiently high. Similarly, in Belgium and France, the hourly wage rate must be sufficiently low. In this paper, I provide a justification for such additional conditions. I analyze Pareto-efficient redistribution from high to low ability individuals in a model where labor has several intensive margins. Besides labor hours, labor effort – a vector of unpleasant, but productive features of labor – is also an object of choice. Effort and ability determine the hourly wage rate. I find that conditional subsidies on earnings for low earners are optimal: the earnings of low earners should be subsidized at the margin, but only if they earn more by working more hours at a sufficiently low wage rate.     

Marriage,cohabitation and women's response to changes in the male wage structure

Using microdata and grouped data that cover the period 1996 to 2006, we assess the extent to which cohabiting women adjust their labour supply to a lesser extent, if any, than married women in response to changes in male wages. Both microdata regressions and grouping estimators unambiguously indicate that cohabiting women respond less to variation in male wages than married women. However, the magnitude of the difference is not sizeable. We also assess the magnitude of married men's and cohabiting men's own wage elasticities and find that they do not differ much. Combined with the fact that male earnings account for roughly two-thirds of family earnings, these two findings explain why the impact of changes in male wages on family earnings is very similar for married couples and cohabiting couples: in both cases, a 10% decline in male wages appears to induce roughly a 6% drop in family earnings.     

Public–Private Sector Wage Differentials in Australia

This paper examines public–private sector wage differentials in Australia. After controlling for observed characteristics and individual fixed effects, we show that on average workers in the public sector earn about 5.1 per cent more in hourly wages than those in the private sector. The wage premium is slightly higher for females than males. Using a panel data quantile regression model with fixed effects, we show that the positive wage effects of public sector employment are heterogeneous, with comparatively larger impact at the lower end of the wage distribution than at other parts. We also find evidence of heterogeneity in the public sector wage premiums by qualification, time period, occupation and state/territory.     

Migrants as second-class workers in urban China? A decomposition analysis

In urban China, urban resident annual earnings are 1.3 times larger than long-term rural migrant earnings as observed in a nationally representative sample in 2002. Using microsimulation, we decompose this difference into four sources, with particular attention to path-dependence and statistical distribution of the estimated effects: (1) different allocation to sectors that pay different wages (sectoral effect); (2) hourly wage disparities across the two populations within sectors (wage effect); (3) different working times within sectors (working time effect); and (4) different population structures (population effect). Although sector allocation is extremely contrasted, with very few migrants in the public sector and very few urban residents working as self-employed, this has no clear impact on earnings differentials, because the sectoral effect is not robust to the path followed for the decomposition. The second main finding is that the population effect is robust and significantly more important than wage or working time effects. This implies that the main source of disparity between the two populations is pre-market (education opportunities) rather than on-market.     

Progressive Taxation and Wage Setting: Some Evidence for Denmark

The proposition that a progressive tax system contributes to wage moderation is studied using Danish earnings data disaggregated by occupation, gender and earnings level. Our main conclusions are that income-tax progression affects wage setting, but whether it moderates or exaggerates wage pressure is income dependent. An increase in progressivity reduces the pre-tax earnings of middle-income workers (manual male workers and moderate income earners among both male and female non-manual workers). The reverse is found for high-income earners (non-manual male workers), in that an increase in progressivity tends to raise pre-tax earnings. Finally, there is no significant effect of tax progressivity on the wages of low-income earners.
JEL classification : H 3; J 3; J 5; J 6     

Wages in the East German Transition Process: Facts and Explanations

We analyze wage developments in the East German transition process both at the macro- and at the microeconomic level. At the macroeconomic level, we draw special attention to the important distinction between product and consumption wages, describe the development of various wage measures, labor productivity and unit labor costs in East Germany in relation to West Germany, and relate these developments to the system of collective wage bargaining. At the microeconomic level, we describe changes in the distribution of hourly wages between 1990 and 1997 and analyze the economic factors determining these changes by way of empirical wage functions estimated on the basis of the Socio-Economic Panel for East Germany. The paper also draws some conclusions on the likely future course of the East–West German wage convergence process.     

The gender difference in wages and the returns to schooling over the great recession in the U.S.

This paper examines the effects of the Great Recession on the gender difference in hourly wage and the rate of return to schooling in the United States. Using data from American Community Survey 2000–2015, we find that the male-female difference in hourly wage declined during and after the recession. The Great Recession decreased earnings for both men and women, especially for those with more education. We also find there is a significant gender difference in the effects of the Great Recession on the returns to schooling. The Great Recession increased the rate of return to schooling for both men and women, and the female-male difference in the returns to schooling decreased by 0.4 percentage points in the post-recession period. The change of the gender difference in the returns to schooling can be explained by the wage structure change for men and women over the recession.     

Unequal we stand: An empirical analysis of economic inequality in the United States, 1967–2006

We conduct a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the United States, integrating data from the Current Population Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the Survey of Consumer Finances. In order to understand how different dimensions of inequality are related via choices, markets, and institutions, we follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. We document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Finally, access to financial markets has limited both the level and growth of consumption inequality.     

What Difference a Wife Makes: The Effect of Women's Hours of Work on Husbands' Hourly Earnings

This paper investigates the relationship between a wife's work-hours decision and her husband's hourly earnings. It is found that, among men in Managerial and Other Manual occupations, having a working wife significantly reduces the husband's hourly wage rate. The findings are robust to various estimation techniques and imply for these cases that productivity or discrimination effects associated with a wife working 40 hours per week lead to a reduction in the husband's hourly earnings of around 15 per cent.     

Does union membership reduce gender earnings differentials? Evidence from employer–employee matched data in China

This paper examines whether union membership reduces gender earnings differentials in the Chinese labour market using an employer–employee matched data set. We have three main findings. First, union membership helps reduce the gender differentials in hourly wage and monthly allowance, but not in monthly basic wage and yearly bonus. Second, ensuring that female workers receive overtime pay is one way by which union membership helps reduce the gender earnings differentials. Third, controlling for firm fixed effects reduces the effect of union membership on the gender gap in hourly wage and monthly allowance, which means that the unobserved firm characteristics might impact the effect of union membership on gender earnings differentials.     

Does Raising the Minimum Wage Help the Poor?*

What is the impact of raising the minimum wage on family incomes? Using data from the 1994–1995 to 2002–2003 Survey of Income and Housing, the characteristics of low-wage workers are analysed. Those who earn near-minimum wages are disproportionately female, unmarried and young, without postschool qualifications and overseas born. About one-third of near-minimum-wage workers are the sole worker in their household. Due to low labour force participation rates in the poorest households, minimum-wage workers are most likely to be in middle-income households. Under plausible parameters for the effect of minimum wages on hourly wages and employment, it appears unlikely that raising the minimum wage will significantly lower family income inequality.     

Lower Tax Progression, Longer Hours and Higher Wages

The impact of tax reforms that decrease income tax progression is analysed in an equilibrium search model with wage bargaining and endogenous individual working hours. Working hours are either bargained together with the hourly wage (case 1) or determined solely by workers after bargaining over the wage (case 2). In both cases reducing tax progression increases working hours of employed and, more interestingly, unambiguously increases wages and unemployment. Wages and unemployment rise more and working hours and production less in case 1 compared to case 2, probably making case 2 countries best suited for such tax reforms.
JEL Classification : H 24; J 22; J 41     

Increasing dispersion of skills and rising earnings inequality

In recent decades many countries have simultaneously liberalized their trading regimes and expanded their education systems. The theoretical effect of these regime shifts on the wage differential between skilled and unskilled workers is ambiguous. On the one hand, openness to trade causes demand shifts in the labor market which may widen or narrow the differential. This result depends on whether the unskilled wage is depressed, as in the case of importing countries, or raised, as in the case of exporting countries. On the other hand, an increased supply of more educated workers reduces their wages and narrows the skill wage gap. In this study of the labor market of Hong Kong, we document that recent changes in response to the trade liberalization of Mainland China and expanded access to education have increased the earnings differential between skilled and unskilled workers. Using detailed census data, we argue that the main reason for this outcome is the widened dispersion of skills across the earnings distribution, resulting from demand and supply shifts in the labor market caused by trade openness and expanded access to higher education.