Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis

Combining monthly survey data with matching trading records, we examine how individual investor perceptions change and drive trading and risk-taking behavior during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. We find that investor perceptions fluctuate significantly during the crisis, with risk tolerance and risk perceptions being less volatile than return expectations. During the worst months of the crisis, investors’ return expectations and risk tolerance decrease, while their risk perceptions increase. Towards the end of the crisis, investor perceptions recover. We document substantial swings in trading and risk-taking behavior that are driven by changes in investor perceptions. Overall, individual investors continue to trade actively and do not de-risk their investment portfolios during the crisis.     

The role of investors’ objective financial knowledge on the assessment of risk disclosures in mutual fund advertisements

This study examined the role of investors’ objective financial knowledge in processing risk disclosures in mutual-fund advertisements. Investors were exposed to a mutual fund advertisement containing either a disclaimer mandated by regulatory bodies or a strongly worded warning label. Overall, the results showed that mandated disclaimers were ineffective in reducing investors’ return expectations and attitudes toward the advertised fund, regardless of the investors’ level of financial knowledge. However, strongly worded warning labels effectively impacted the return expectations and attitudes of low-knowledge investors, but not high-knowledge investors. That is, the impact of warning labels was dependent on the level of an investors’ financial knowledge; specifically, high-knowledge investors failed to discount past performance as a heuristic cue in their judgments. Importantly, this behavior of high-knowledge investors was not due to a familiarity effect; the risk disclosures were properly encoded and processed by knowledgeable investors. These results suggest that high-knowledge investors either possessed strongly held beliefs (for example, the ‘hot hand’ effect) that persevered even when exposed to the strongly worded warning, or they were overconfident in their judgments.     

中国个人投资者处置效应研究——一个非理性信念的视角

处置效应是指投资者过早卖出盈利股票而长期持有亏损股票的现象。大量文献表明金融市场投资者存在显著的处置效应,但其产生的原因和机理存在争议。本文在前景理论框架下,构建了包含投资者非理性预期的离散时间投资组合决策模型,发现处置效应随投资者情绪升高而减弱。本文使用我国某券商2007—2009年近177万个人投资者股票账户的交易数据进行了实证分析,得到与理论模型预测的一致结果,即投资者情绪与投资者处置效应之间呈现显著的负相关关系。而且,受情绪影响,投资者处置效应在估值难度较大的股票中更弱。本文结论对理解投资者处置效应、优化投资者卖出决策和加强资本市场基础制度建设具有一定理论和实践意义。     

基金业绩归因与投资者行为

本文以2006年1月至2016年12月中国64家股票型主动管理基金为样本,从基金净资金流变化的角度,检验了投资者决策与基金业绩结构的关系,以期更好地理解投资者行为。本文结论有:(1)整体上,投资者在衡量基金经理能力时,更关注原始超额收益率或只基于市场风险调整风险敞口,这可能与中国市场投资工具仍然不够充分、风险难以有效对冲有关;(2)机构投资者相比个人投资者对风险敞口的识别更严格;(3)简单模型的优势集中在市场波动低、投资者情绪高的时期;(4)除基金经理能力外,净资金流变化对市场风险报酬也很敏感;(5)从alpha的角度,我国基金市场仍存在“赎回异象”,可能与“处置效应”有关,仍需提升投资者对风险的认知,引导市场形成更加科学的投资观念。     

Value and momentum from investors’ perspective: Evidence from professionals’ risk-ratings

We conduct a controlled experiment with financial professionals to examine more directly whether value and momentum reflect risk factors or mispricing. By eliciting their risk perceptions and return expectations for company stocks, we identify what constitutes a risky investment from the point of investors. Contrary to the risk factor hypothesis, value and momentum stocks are regarded as less risky. However, other factors, such as size and beta, fall in line with their traditional interpretation as risk factors. Consistent with empirical findings, we observe higher return expectations for momentum stocks, raising questions on analysts believing in a risk–return trade-off.     

Changes in sentiment on REIT industry excess returns and volatility

REIT characteristics pose unique risks and benefits to investors who seek liquid diversification and hedging vehicles to complement their portfolios. This paper tests for the asymmetric effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on REIT industry returns and conditional volatility. We simultaneously model the impact of two markedly different groups of investors on the return generating process of the REIT industry. Our findings suggest that noise trading imposes significant systemic risk on the realization of REIT industry returns. Interestingly, corrections in institutional investor expectations have a larger effect on REIT industry returns and volatility than changes in individual investor expectations. More specifically, bearish shifts in institutional investor expectations of future market conditions have a significantly larger impact on returns and volatility than bullish shifts. Results align with the overreaction to negative information and loss aversion hypotheses.     

Individual investors’ information use,subjective expectations,and portfolio risk and return

What information do individual investors use when making their financial decisions and how is it related to their stock market expectations, their confidence in these expectations, and the risk and return of their stock portfolios? I study these questions by combining survey data on the information usage among individual investors in Sweden with detailed registry data on their stock portfolios. I find that investors use filtered financial information (e.g. information packaged by a professional intermediary) more frequently than they use unfiltered financial information (e.g. information from annual reports and financial statements). Investors who frequently use filtered financial information are, however, more confident in their stock market expectations and take larger risks in their stock portfolios. Investors that instead use unfiltered financial information take lower portfolio risks and obtain higher portfolio returns. The findings in this paper thus suggest that investors can improve their financial decisions by using more unfiltered financial information rather than filtered financial information when they make their financial decisions.     

Polynomial goal programming and the implicit higher moment preferences of US institutional investors in hedge funds

Polynomial goal programming (PGP) is a flexible method that allows investor preferences for different moments of the return distribution of financial assets to be included in the portfolio optimization. The method is intuitive and particularly suitable for incorporating investor preferences in higher moments of the return distribution. However, until now, PGP has not been able to meet its full potential because it requires quantification of “real” preference parameters towards those moments. To date, the chosen preference parameters have been selected somewhat “arbitrarily”. Our goal is to calculate implied sets of preference parameters using investors’ choices of and the importance they attribute to risk and performance measures. We use three groups of institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, and endowments—and derive implied sets of preference parameters in the context of a hedge fund portfolio optimization. To determine “real” preferences for the higher moments of the portfolio return distribution, we first fit implied preference parameters so that the PGP optimal portfolio is identical to the desired hedge fund portfolio. With the obtained economically justified sets of preference parameters, the well-established PGP framework can be employed more efficiently to derive allocations that satisfy institutional investor expectations for hedge fund investments. Furthermore, the implied preference parameters enable fund of hedge fund managers and other investment managers to derive optimal portfolio allocations based on specific investor expectations. Moreover, the importance of individual moments, as well as their marginal rates of substitution, can be assessed.     

投资者教育发挥作用了吗?——来自公募基金个人投资者调查数据的证据

投资者教育是保障资本市场平稳运行、良性发展的重要举措,也是我国资本市场重要的基础性制度建设。本文利用20000多份全国公募基金个人投资者调查数据,分析了投资者教育对基金投资收益的影响,并基于行为金融学框架探究了其背后的作用机制。以往文献研究表明,金融知识水平对投资收益会产生显著影响,本文研究发现,获取金融知识的渠道也会影响投资收益。相对于自己学习金融知识、相关工作经验累积金融知识、向亲戚朋友学习金融知识,投资者教育(如参加金融机构的投资教育活动、接受金融经济类课程或培训)更有助于投资者缓解趋势追逐、频繁交易、处置效应等交易行为偏差,从而获得更高的投资收益。进一步分析表明,投资者教育通过提高“理性程度”来提升基金投资盈利概率、投资总收益率和年均收益率的中介效应分别为19.41%、17.09%和12.75%。此外,不同群体参与投资者教育的积极性和受教育效果存在显著差异,投资者教育要更多采取“分类教育”的形式。本文研究对进一步加强投资者教育、更好地推动资本市场发展具有一定的参考意义。     

Pockets of Predictability

For many benchmark predictor variables, short-horizon return predictability in the U.S. stock market is local in time as short periods with significant predictability (“pockets”) are interspersed with long periods with no return predictability. We document this result empirically using a flexible time-varying parameter model that estimates predictive coefficients as a nonparametric function of time and explore possible explanations of this finding, including time-varying risk premia for which we find limited support. Conversely, pockets of return predictability are consistent with a sticky expectations model in which investors slowly update their beliefs about a persistent component in the cash flow process.     

Auditor rotation and the appearance of independence: Evidence from non-professional investors

We examine the impact of audit firm versus partner rotation on non-professional investors’ independence-related perceptions, extending prior research on auditor rotation and independence in fact. Arguments for mandatory audit firm rotation continue to be made by regulators and investor groups based, in part, on the idea that firm rotation will incrementally strengthen independence in appearance relative to audit partner rotation. We report the results of two experiments. The first examines 5-year audit firm versus partner rotation under relatively weak or strong audit committees. We find no statistically significant difference in beliefs about how much of an income reducing audit difference management will record, or in beliefs about auditor independence, between the two auditor rotation conditions. On the other hand, we find that non-professional investors do believe more of the audit difference will be recorded, and the auditors will be more independent, under a strong audit committee than a relatively weak audit committee. The second experiment provides further evidence on audit firm versus partner rotation by examining a setting involving a 26-year audit firm–client relationship. Again, no statistically significant differences between the two auditor rotation conditions were found. These findings suggest that compared to audit partner rotation, audit firm rotation does not strengthen independence in appearance among non-professional investors and that non-professional investors recognize the value of strong audit committees.     

机构投资者行为与交易量异象

我们验证了在中国资本市场上存在交易量异象,以过去3个月的换手率为基础进行套利,在未来3个月投资者能获取显著的超额回报。使用中期和年度机构持股数据,我们发现机构投资者能识别和利用交易量异象。基于交易量和机构投资者持股比例的信息,我们发现投资者如果买进过去3个月平均交易量最低与机构投资者持股比例最高的一组,同时卖空交易量最高与机构投资者持股比例最低的一组进行交叉套利,他们能在未来3个月获得10.3%的超额回报。     

Imagining worse than reality: comparing beliefs and intentions between disaster evacuees and survey respondents1

We often credit disasters, and their coverage in the media, with changes in the public perception of risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence events (LPHCs). With a change in perceptions, we also expect changes in beliefs, preferences, and behaviors. Do beliefs and behaviors change in different ways for people who live through these LPHC critical events, as opposed to people who observe them? This study compares hypothetical hurricanes with actual hurricane effects in a survey quasi-experiment. Findings indicate that hypothetical disasters induce stronger reactions than those experienced in the natural world, as Hurricane Katrina bystanders imagine themselves incurring much higher damages, and being much less likely to return to live in their hurricane-damaged homes, than actual Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Ultimately, respondents considering a hypothetical low-probability, high-consequence event exhibit exaggerated beliefs and opposite decisions of those who actually lived through one of these events. Results underline the importance of examining the differences between public perceptions and experiential reality.     

Is trading behavior stable across contexts? Evidence from style and multi-style investors

In this paper we study priming of identity within the context of inherent vs. contextual financial decision making. We use a sample of individual trading accounts in equity-style funds taken from one fund family to test the hypothesis that trading styles are inherent vs. contextual. Our sample contains investors who invest either in a growth fund, a value fund, or both. We document behavioral differences between growth fund investors and value fund investors. We find that their trades depend on past returns in different ways: growth fund investors tend towards momentum trading and value fund investors tend towards contrarian trading. These differences may be due to inherent clientele characteristics, including beliefs about market prices, specific personality traits and cognitive strategies that cause them to self-select into one or the other style. We use a sample of investors that trade in both types of funds to test this proposition. Consistent with the contextual hypothesis, we find that investors who hold both types of funds trade growth fund shares differently than value fund shares.     

Disagreement and asset prices

How do differences of opinion affect asset prices? Do investors earn a risk premium when disagreement arises in the market? Despite their fundamental importance, these questions are among the most controversial issues in finance. In this paper, we use a novel data set that allows us to directly measure the level of disagreement among Wall Street mortgage dealers about prepayment speeds. We examine how disagreement evolves over time and study its effects on expected returns, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher trading volume. Instead, only when disagreement arises in the market is higher uncertainty associated with more trading. Finally, we are able to distinguish empirically between two competing hypotheses regarding how information in markets gets incorporated into asset prices. We find that sophisticated investors appear to update their beliefs through a rational expectations mechanism when disagreement arises.     

上山下乡经历与家庭风险金融资产投资——基于断点回归的证据

本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年家庭和个人层面数据,考察了户主的上山下乡经历对于家庭风险金融资产投资决策的影响。结果表明,上山下乡经历显著提高了家庭对于股票及广义风险金融资产的投资概率和投资规模。机制分析表明,此经历主要通过提升家庭投资的风险偏好和投资能力来影响家庭的风险金融资产投资。分样本讨论结果表明,上山下乡经历对家庭风险金融投资产生的正向影响在高人力资本、高收入和高社会资本群体中更为显著。     

投资者关注会影响个体投资者的汇率预期吗?--基于银行代客结售汇数据的实证分析

为考察个体投资者汇率预期的非理性及形成机制,本文基于外汇市场异质主体理论和行为金融学观点,构建了包含投资者关注的个体投资者汇率预期形成模型,并采用远期和即期银行代客结汇售汇比作为个体投资者汇率预期的替代指标,进行了实证分析。结果表明,远期结售比受到前一期汇率变动和境内外利差的影响,而即期结售比受前一期汇率变动影响。进一步引入投资者关注,采用MS-FTP和MS-TVTP模型的实证研究表明,投资者关注对远期和即期结售比的影响是时变的。在人民币贬值阶段,投资者关注对结售比存在显著的负向冲击,会导致更大的结售汇逆差;而在人民币升值阶段,投资者关注对结售比则无显著影响。本文的结论表明,个体投资者汇率预期具有显著的非理性特征,符合动量原则和套息规则,同时还受到投资者关注的影响。央行在人民币处于持续贬值区间时,应通过汇率沟通作用于投资者关注,稳定汇率预期。     

Risk sharing in a financial market with endogenous option prices

This article investigates a financial market in which investors may trade in risk-free bonds, stock and put options written on the stock. In each period, stock and option prices are simultaneously determined by market clearing. While the introduction of put options will decrease the systematic risk in the financial market, it will increase the price of risk. Investors with mean-variance preferences will generally hold portfolios containing the primary asset and the put option and may use the option to increase the risk in their wealth position in exchange for higher returns. Aggregate wealth is unaffected by an option market when there are no spillover effects on stock prices, and it is shown that short selling of options will increase the volatility of individual wealth positions. Investors with erroneous beliefs may on average be better off not trading in put options.     

Attention allocation and international stock return comovement: Evidence from the Bitcoin market

We employ extreme Bitcoin returns as exogenous shock events to investigate the impact of investor attention allocation on worldwide stock return comovement. We find that (1) these shock events decrease worldwide stock return comovement, (2) there is an asymmetric effect in which a crash shock event has a greater impact on return comovement than a jump shock event, and (3) the impact of these shock events on equity comovement is more pronounced in emerging markets. Our results suggest that identifying extreme Bitcoin returns will benefit portfolio construction. Our results may be of considerable interest to investors, as well as to academics interested in portfolio diversification, asset comovement, and cryptocurrencies.     

Investor sentiment and return predictability of disagreement

This study examines the influence of investor sentiment on the relationship between disagreement among investors and future stock market returns. We find that the relationship between disagreement and future stock market returns time-varies with the degree of investor sentiment. Higher disagreement among investors’ opinions predicts significantly lower future stock market returns during high-sentiment periods, but it has no significant effect on future stock market returns during low-sentiment periods. Our findings imply that investor sentiment is related to several causes of short-sale impediments suggested in the previous literature on investor sentiment, and that the stock return predictability of disagreement is driven by investor sentiment. We demonstrate that investor sentiment has a significant impact on the stock market return predictability of disagreement through in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. In addition, the profitability of our suggested trading strategy exploiting disagreement and investor sentiment level confirms the economic significance of incorporating investor sentiment into the relationship between disagreement among investors and future stock market returns.