A Simple Model of Privately Profitable But Socially Useless Speculation

The paper presents a general equilibrium model of a pure exchange economy with stochastic endowments, in which speculation in the forward market is profitable and stabilizes prices but is useless from a welfare point of view. Reconciling the Siegel paradox with the theory of incomplete markets, we show that banning speculation by closing the forward market may increase social welfare. We also show that the addition of a market might reduce the gains from international trade for all participating countries.
JEL Classification Numbers: F10, F11, F19.     

企业发展循环经济的行为分析模型研究

文章在概述发展循环经济对企业要求的基础上,讨论了企业发展循环经济的主要行为及其驱动因素,并由此建立分析框架:在经典的"结构-行为-绩效(SCP)"范式基础上,借鉴了"压力-状态-响应(PSR)"模型的外部驱动机理,提出适宜于分析企业发展循环经济的"结构-驱动力-行为-绩效(SMOP)"模型.可用于分析与评价企业发展循环经济的驱动力、行为及相应绩效,为政策研究提供系统的分析工具.     

关于投保人故意杀害被保险人之法律条款的思考

2009年我国新颁布的保险法就投保人故意杀害被保险人的行为规定保险人可以免责。保险法认为这属于骗取保险金行为,保险公司由此可以免责。但是保险人是否能够因为投保人的故意行为而免责,这并不是一个一概而论的问题,需要针对不同的情况做出具体的分析。在分析各种情况均遵循一个前提:排除被保险人与投保人合谋导致保险事故意骗取保险金的行为。即均认定被保险人是理性人不考虑被保险人以牺牲自己的身体为代价获取保险金。那么这个问题的关键点在于投保人是否为自己的利益投保。文章所坚持的观点是完全不可免责制,其基于维护被保险人的利益。在整个事件中被保险人始终是受害者,且从订立保险契约的角度,保护被保险人的利益是整个契约形成的基础和最终目标。如果投保人故意伤害被保险人造成保险事故,文章所认定的是请求保险权利归于没有参与犯罪行为的其他受益人,若没有符合条件的受益人则权利归于被保险人的合法财产继承人执行。     

社区参与型旅游产品开发的"IDPC"模式研究--以非民族旅游地为例

旅游本就是社会交往的一种形式,文化的交融和情感的沟通贯穿于旅游活动的始终.为了吸引旅游者的注意力,旅游供给者们曾经考虑了太多的有形产品.本文则是从旅游的非物质化开发层面入手,探讨社区参与型旅游产品的开发问题.在对这一产品进行基本界定的基础上,本文提出了其开发意义,着重对其开发模式的研究,提出了旅游开发要"形神兼备",借助旅游的社会属性来丰富旅游地的旅游供给.     

借鉴香港盈富基金模式推动我国国有股减持

一、香港盈富基金的情况介绍 香港盈富基金的由来与1998年7、8月间的香港金融保卫战有关。当时东南亚金融危饥余波未定,国际金融大鳄挟巨额游资从利率和汇率两个方面向香港金融体系发起猛烈进攻。香港股市在一片恐慌中连续单边大幅下挫,港元与美元长期稳定的联系汇率也难以联系。一时间香港国际金融中心的地位岌岌可危,为了保护香港经济、维护联系     

养老保险参保行为理论及实证研究

依据中国最新的基本养老保险政策,采用养老保险精算方法构建基本养老保险参保模型分析参保人的行为模式,研究不同个体特征对参保人行为的可能影响后发现,在现行政策条件下,基本养老保险制度吸引力十分有限.结果显示,随着年龄的增加,参保人参保的积极性也提高;而收入水平与参保率之间存在显著的正相关.另外,居民教育水平、用工形式、单位性质、制度透明度等因素也是影响参保率的重要因素;而参保人性别与参保概率没有显著相关性.     

乡村旅游职业教育发展模式探究

发展乡村旅游职业教育是提高乡村旅游质量,建设社会主义新农村的主要途径之一。针对乡村旅游职业教育中存在着一些问题,认为,应该走一条多层次、多类型、多渠道、有特色、规范统一的和谐发展模式来发展乡村旅游职业教育。     

论双语教师继续教育模式的改革与创新

提高双语教师实施素质教育的能力与水平，是全面推进民族地区实施双语教育和素质教育、提高民族教育教学质量的基本保证。当前双语教师的继续教育，受职前学历教育模式的影响，强调本体性专业知识，教师的综合素质、双语教育教学能力难以有效提高，难以适应民族地区实施素质教育的要求。为此，应加大双语教师继续教育模式的改革与创新力度，尽快实现从传统教育模式向现代教育模式的转变。     

移植模式下企业参与研发的高校技术转移定价研究

校企合作能有效促进技术成果转化,而高校如何合理制定定价模式对校企间技术转移起到了关键作用。围绕校企技术转移中的移植模式,结合企业参与情景,构造了校企间技术转移期望效用函数,设计了高校技术转移定价模型,并通过实证求解验证了该模型,对高校确立合理的定价模式具有一定的现实指导意义。     

The Heath, Jarrow, Morton Model

Equilibrium models of the term structure of interest rates, such as Vasicek (1977) and Cox et al. (1985) , hereafter CIR, determine the equilibrium yield curve by modelling the dynamics of the short-term interest rate, specifying the market price of risk, and solving the resulting partial differential equation for bond prices. Several multi-factor extensions of the Vasicek and CIR framework have been advanced in the recent term structure literature using as additional factors different variables, such as the volatility of interest rates (see, e.g. Longstaff and Schwartz, 1992 ; Dai and Singleton, 2000 ), the slope of the term structure ( Brennan and Schwartz, 1979 ; Schaefer and Schwartz, 1984 ), monetary policy rates ( Bakshi and Chen, 1996 ), and inflation ( Pennacchi, 1991 ; Sun, 1992 ). Since a no-arbitrage condition must hold in equilibrium, this brief article starts from the stated law of motion for bond prices to tersely show how their implied instantaneous forward rates have an evolution under the pricing measure that is fully characterized by the forward rate volatilities. Thus, the outcome of the article is the fundamental equation of the classic model contributed by Heath et al. (1992) , hereafter HJM, which sets off with the study of the forward rates' no-arbitrage dynamics. By doing so, it shows that, despite its different angle and its apparent complex structure, the HJM model is fully consistent and has a clear link with standard equilibrium set-ups like those of the Vasicek and CIR type. This note was written in 1994 .     

Modeling the Education Supply Chain with Network DEA Model: The Case of Tunisia

Little has been done on network DEA in education, and nobody has attempted to model the whole education supply chain using network DEA. As such the contribution of the present paper is to evaluate the efficiency of Tunisian education supply chain with a network DEA developed by Kao and Hwang (Eur J Oper Res 185:418–429, 2008). The idea consists on subdividing the education system into three sub-processes, where, primary, secondary and tertiary education are linked by intermediate variables. Input variables of the whole education system are “the number of schools” and “the number of students enrolled in the first year of basic education”. Output generated from basic education “Promoted pupils from basic education” is the only input used by secondary education. The output variable “Graduates from secondary education” is then used by tertiary education to produce the output of the whole education system which is “Graduates from tertiary education”. The results of assessment show that most governorates have a lower efficiency scores in tertiary education compared to efficiency in basic and secondary education. The results of the efficiency scores ranking demonstrate an important similarity between the ranks of the whole education system efficiency and the tertiary education efficiency. This result confirms that the inefficiency of education in Tunisia is mainly due to the inefficiency of tertiary education.

     

劳动模范：在道德与权力之间——从社会学的视角看一种道德教育制度

本文以二十世纪六七十年代城市中的单位为背景,通过对劳动模范作为道德权威的建构过程和作为道德典范对整个社会,特别是其周围环境的示范作用进行策略层面的分析,试图对以劳动模范制度为代表的典型式道德教育制度进行一定程度的社会学意义上的理解。本文着重分析了劳动模范在道德理想和现实的冲突中所处的尴尬地位,特别是当政治权力渗入基层单位后劳动模范制度在国家与社会的合作与紧张状况下的运作现实。     

The Effects of Inservice Training on Participating Teachers and Students in Their Economics Classes

In a fairly elaborate study, the author found that inservice teacher training in economics improved the achievement scores of participating teachers and their students. In addition, as their achievement scores improved, both teachers and students developed more positive opinions about economics. At the time of the study, inservice training seemed to be more effective than preservice training.     

出口贸易、教育投入与经济增长:理论模型与经验证据

笔者借鉴获得性技能模型思想,研究教育投入通过影响外贸发展间接影响经济增长的路径,并重点考察两者对经济增长的联合影响机制.利用2004年～2009年31个省市数据进行实证分析,结果表明:教育投入对经济增长的边际影响为负且教育行业投入与出口贸易对经济增长的联合影响正向显著.可见教育投入对经济增长的直接促进作用,远远小于其通过促进外贸发展间接促进经济增长的作用.     

Risk-sharing and Growth: The Role of Precautionary Savings in the "Education" Model

While the "risk amelioration" literature suggests that risk-sharing channels savings into risky but productive technologies and hence favours growth, models focused on precautionary savings reverse this conclusion. We solve, by means of numerical techniques, a model based on human capital accumulation through education, and find that the increase in precautionary savings makes labour more productive in the goods sector and draws resources from education, which is the "growth leading" activity. Hence, we establish a result favourable to financial integration, even in a model where precautionary savings play an important role.     

本科生导师式教育模式效果分析

以我校05级、06级、07级、08级共五个本科班为研究对象,进行本科生导师式教育模式研究与实践,以学习能力、实践能力、创新能力、个性发展、综合能力的发展、心理健康水平为数据分析的依据。经过本课题组近三年的实践研究,可知本科生导师式教育模式对提高本科生上述能力产生积极的效果。     

国民旅游休闲教育模式构建研究

通过对国民旅游理念变化的现状分析和休闲教育在国民旅游质量上所产生的意义及紧迫性的阐释,提出了国民旅游休闲教育的内涵和实践两个方面的构想,即在内涵上构建以学校教育为主体,国家与城市、村镇与社区、社会与企业为主线,旅游产业先行的休闲教育体系;建立专门发展委员会,制定国家休闲教育计划;形成科学化、个性化、社会化的国民旅游休闲观。在实践上应加大休闲旅游产品的开发与投资主体的多元化;加大国家对旅游休闲教育的投入;大力推行研学旅游,推广健康、环保、文明的旅游休闲理念;注重旅游服务设施、旅游服务产品、旅游服务管理和旅游安全保障的休闲体系的建设。     

扩招"大跃进"、教育机会与大学毕业生就业

本文利用2000年和2005年的大样本数据,考察了始于1999年的大学扩招对不同人群的高等教育机会和大学毕业生就业的影响。通过比较扩招之前和之后参加高考的两个年龄组的特征发现,扩招使东部地区、城镇家庭受益更多,而少数民族的女性、农村地区、西部地区受益较少。本文进一步利用双重差分模型研究发现,扩招使大学毕业生的失业率显著提高9个百分点左右,其中有50%左右是大学毕业生的平均能力下降所致。     

高校网络教育的成本、市场均衡及质量——一个经济学的分析视角

经济学中对于成本的研究,尤其是成本曲线和成本函数的研究,是市场均衡研究的最基础性工作.本文将高校的网络教育纳入到纯私人产品的范畴,并将Cobb-Douglas产出技术应用到网络教育机构的成本,并通过一系列假设构建了网络教育服务市场的竞争模型,分析了存在、不存在第三方分成及两种模式下的竞争均衡与相应的质量问题.本文最后认为,我国网络教育市场发展尚处于起步阶段,自发的市场调节对于质量改进是无效性的.引入网络教育质量标准和实行行业评估制度将有助于改善这一状况.