知识资本模型的再检验——基于中国外商直接投资的数据

本文利用中国外商直接投资1997-2003年的数据,对知识资本模型进行了检验.中国对于大多数的投资国来说,是个熟练劳动力相对稀缺的大国,这决定了其数据更适合用来检验知识资本模型.实证分析的结果支持了知识资本模型,母国和东道国GDP的和以及熟练劳动力禀赋的差对跨国公司的活动规模是正面影响,而母国贸易成本、母国和东道国C.DP差的平方以及两国GDP之差与熟练劳动力禀赋差的交互项对跨国公司活动规模是负面影响.进一步的分析还得出了其他的一些结论:中国GDP的增加、中国和其他国家GDP的收敛会促进FDI流入等.     

Reconciling Observed Tariffs and the Median Voter Model

Median voter theory applied to trade policy predicts positive tariffs in capital‐abundant countries and negative tariffs in labor‐abundant countries. Negative tariffs are rare, and this paper reconciles the median voter theory with observed protectionism across countries. By considering large countries, I show the optimal tariff is a sum of the median voter component and a positive term of trade component. Positive terms of trade effects raise tariffs in all countries, and can overcome the negative median voter component in labor‐abundant countries. Testing the tariff prediction with cross‐section and panel data from the 1990s, I show the median voter component is negative in labor‐abundant countries and positive in capital‐abundant countries. As expected, terms of trade effects raise tariffs across all countries and are stronger among nonmembers of the WTO.     

Reconciling the Green Accounts

In an optimally managed economy, green nationalexpenditure is equal to the linearization of the Hamiltonian from theproblem of maximizing discounted social utility. Herein, we utilize theadjoint conditions to add to the basis for viewing green NNP as an index ofsocial utility under ideal conditions and to show the equality of netnational income and expenditure. The results apply even when returns toscale are increasing or decreasing. Unpriced, net environmental benefitsshould be incorporated into comprehensive NNP in much the same way as thedisutility of labor. Otherwise, current practices of the national accountscan be defended, including the treatment of capital gains.     

Further Evidence from Aggregate Data on the Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model

We estimate the path of aggregate consumption implied by the permanent income hypothesis by allowing for parameter variation dictated by the theory. Our evidence, obtained by applying the Kalman filter to U.S. data for 1929–2001, supports the proposed generalisation and the fluctuations in the parameter estimates comply with a priori theoretical expectations.     

Reconciling the Invisible Hand and innovation

It is generally agreed that Adam Smith invoked the Invisible Hand to send the message to posterity that a free-market economy is the best form of economic organization. Strictly speaking, the Invisible Hand of Adam Smith is a conjecture about the virtues of a free-market economy. There are three claims in this paper concerning the interpretation of the Invisible Hand conjecture. First, the neoclassical interpretation engenders a conceptual confusion – identified here as the ‘double paradox’ of the Invisible Hand. Second, the interpretation of Adam Smith's conjecture on the beneficial effects of the free-market economy cannot – and should not – be confined to the production and consumption of existing products. Failure to distinguish the Invisible Hand Theorem from the Invisible Hand Doctrine distorts thinking about Adam Smith's message, creating the misconception that the Invisible Hand passage excludes business innovation. Third, the central message conveyed by Invisible Hand is to be read in the context of modern evolutionary economics.     

Reconciling the WTO Effects on Trade at the Extensive and Intensive Margins

Empirical studies examining the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership have produced disparate results. These studies, however, have focused on total aggregate trade flows. In this paper, we utilize disaggregated product level data to examine the impact of WTO membership on the product level extensive and intensive margin of imports. Utilizing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation that allows for heteroskedasticity in trade data and accounting for several estimation issues, we do not find a positive impact on either margins between WTO member country-pairs. Once we examine asymmetries in trade flows across countries based on their level of development, we find that developing WTO members experience an increase in the extensive margin from industrial member countries. Additionally, the industrial WTO members also experience an increase in the extensive margin from developing WTO members. Results suggest that WTO facilitates the North–South trade relationship, which has been largely absent in trade literature.     

儒家学说与社会主义的和解？

本文认为把社会主义传统和儒家传统结合起来的左派儒学在中国大陆最有发展前途。作者简要概述了传统的社会主义价值观以及它们如何与一些“儒学”特征结合起来，以厘清“左派儒学”的轮廓，如独立的社会和政治批评、关心弱势群体、关心基本的物质生活、和陌生人的团结、全球正义和宗教宽容等。在文章最后，作者还探讨了儒学的普遍性和走向世界的困难。     

基于超效率DEA模型的农业生态效率评价——以盆栽水稻试验为例

农业面源污染已成为我国当前主要环境污染源,进行农业生态效率评价对于减少农业生产污染物排放,控制农业面源污染具有重要现实意义.本研究以生态效率理论为基础,运用超效率数据包络分析模型对4个水稻品种生态效率进行了评价和排序.结果发现,不同品种间生态效率与氮肥利用效率具有一定正相关性,氮肥利用效率高的品种其生态效率明显较高.本研究揭示了农作物品种的筛选对农业生态效率产生影响,对我国农业的可持续发展具有一定参考价值和推动作用.     

基于动态面板数据模型分析FDI的环境效应

外商直接投资在对中国经济增长起到积极推动作用的同时,我们也不可忽视其可能会对我国环境造成的影响。文章通过构建环境污染综合指数,并且以东中西部为三个横截面建立动态面板数据模型来分析外商直接投资对各个地区环境的影响。结果显示,外商直接投资和东部中部地区的环境污染指数之间有正相关关系,和西部地区的环境污染指数之间是一个负相关关系。     

Reconciling sustainability, systems theory and discounting

Most definitions of sustainability imply that a system is to be maintained at a certain level, held within certain limits, into the indefinite future. Sustainability denies run-away growth, but it also avoids any decline or destruction. This sustainability path is hard to reconcile with the renewal cycle that can be observed in many natural systems developing according to their intrinsic mechanisms and in social systems responding to internal and external pressures. Systems are parts of hierarchies where systems of higher levels are made up of subsystems from lower levels. Renewal in components is an important factor of adaptation and evolution. If a system is sustained for too long, it borrows from the sustainability of a supersystem and rests upon lack of sustainability in subsystems. Therefore by sustaining certain systems beyond their renewal cycle, we decrease the sustainability of larger, higher-level systems. For example, Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction posits that in a capitalist economy, the collapse and renewal of firms and industries is necessary to sustain the vitality of the larger economic system. However, if the capitalist economic system relies on endless growth, then sustaining it for too long will inevitably borrow from the sustainability of the global ecosystem. This could prove catastrophic for humans and other species. To reconcile sustainability with hierarchy theory, we must decide which hierarchical level in a system we want to sustain indefinitely, and accept that lower level subsystems must have shorter life spans. In economic analysis, inter-temporal discount rates essentially tell us how long we should care about sustaining any given system. Economists distinguish between discount rates for individuals based on personal time preference, lower discount rates for firms based on the opportunity cost of capital, and even lower discount rates for society. For issues affecting even higher-level systems, such as global climate change, many economists question the suitability of discounting future values at all. We argue that to reconcile sustainability with inter-temporal discounting, discount rates should be determined by the hierarchical level of the system being analyzed.     

资产的理性定价模型和非理性定价模型的比较研究--基于中国股市的实证分析

本文以 1 995年 2月— 2 0 0 2年 6月深沪两市A股上市公司为样本 ,考察和对比三个定价模型———CAPM、三因素模型和特征模型。实证研究发现 :(1 )中国股市存在显著的“账面市值比效应”(BMEffect)和“规模效应”(SIZEEffect) ,但对于小公司则不存在“1月份效应” ;(2 )三因素模型比CAPM能更好地描述股票横截面收益的变化 ;(3 )基于“股票横截面收益是由公司特征决定”的非理性定价理论的特征模型不成立 ,而基于“股票横截面收益是由风险因素决定”的理性定价理论的三因素模型成立。这些发现说明 ,账面市值比和公司规模这二个变量代表的是一种“风险因素” ,并非“特征因素” ,因此中国股票横截面收益的变化取决于风险因素 ,而非特征因素。作者认为 ,导致上述结果的主要原因是中国股市长期的同涨同跌特征。     

Maximizing Behavior: Reconciling Neoclassical and X-Efficiency Approaches

International capital flows are constrained by a lack of complementary human capital, information asymmetries and transaction costs for small loan sizes. Extant research has provided a myriad of economic and cultural explanations of how microcredit has overcome these. Based on these, the paper develops a simple economic framework that accounts for these behavioral and institutional factors: a discontinuous marginal revenue curve and a U-shaped supply curve of capital for the microcredit environment. It then uses these analytical tools to explain capital flows and interest rates charged by traditional moneylenders. Finally, it uses these tools to present the growth of microcredit and the increase in financial flows and to explain why microcredit interest rates are lower than those of moneylenders, but higher than those of commercial banks to wealthier borrowers.     

Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness

This paper attempts to reconcile the high estimates of price stickiness from macroeconomic estimates of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with the lower values obtained from surveys of firms’ pricing behaviour. This microeconomic evidence also suggests that the frequency with which firms adjust their prices varies across sectors. Building on the insights of Carvalho (2006), we present Monte Carlo evidence that suggests that in the presence of this heterogeneity estimates of the NKPC obtained using conventional methods, such as GMM, are likely to considerably overstate the degree of aggregate price stickiness. Furthermore, if roundabout production is a characteristic of the economy the NKPC will falsely suggest that a sizeable fraction of prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable instruments.     

Reconciling the Rawlsian and the utilitarian approaches to the maximization of social welfare

Under a deadweight loss of tax and transfer, there is tension between the optimal policy choices of a Rawlsian social planner and a utilitarian social planner. However, when with a weight greater than a certain critical value the individuals’ utility functions incorporate distaste for low relative income, a utilitarian will select exactly the same income distribution as a Rawlsian.     

基于钱纳里模型的中国经济结构研究——来自1978～2009年的经验证据

自20世纪80年代以来,中国经济一直处于高速增长态势,即使2008年席卷全球经济的国际金融危机也没有阻碍其增长步伐。研究经济增长对经济结构优化的影响具有重要意义0以钱纳里的经济结构分析模型为出发点,运用中国1978～2009年的真实数据实证分析了经济增长和就业人数两大因素对经济结构的影响,并使用弹性系数指标对影响程度进行细致刻画。从实证结论中得到如下启示：一是应继续解放和发展生产力,以经济的高速增长带动经济结构升级和优化;二是保持产业结构按“二、三、一”顺序发展,加强对第三产业的投入;三是通过发展第二、三产业来解决就业压力问题;四是促进经济和谐增长,积极转变经济增长方式。     

Alfred Marshall's Mecca: Reconciling the Theories of Value and Development*

The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolutionary nature and content of Marshall's theory of value and the relation it bears to his theory of growth and development. In Marshall's work the two theories are inextricably linked, and the subsequent attempt to separate them has not only marginalised Marshall's rich analysis but also made it impossible to appreciate the role he gave to innovation, and its corollary the growth of knowledge and organisation, in the workings of a market economy. At its core is the relation between the growth of firms and the growth of markets, but this is not steady‐state growth theory; rather, it is the different, mutually determined and ever changing growth rates of different groups of firms that is at the centre of attention. Quite how variation is linked to progress is the central topic of this essay, and the elucidation of its central role necessarily means that we must resurrect the representative firm. We conclude that Marshall was correct in stating that ‘the tendency to variation is a chief source of progress’ (Principles, V, 4, p. 355). We develop a set of evolutionary tools to show how and why this is so. But evolution is more than variation; it requires the organisation of firms and the market process to generate that correlation between differential knowledge and economic advance. Most importantly of all, the concept of a representative firm is re‐established as an indispensable element in a Marshallian evolutionary analysis.     

Reconciling Kuznets and Habbakuk in a unified growth theory

Economic historians have debated the relative labor productivity of the United States agricultural and nonagricultural sectors during the nineteenth century. David (Discussion papers in economic and social history, University of Oxford, 1996) offers a reconciliation of the opposing views by suggesting that while productivity per hour worked in agriculture was comparable to productivity in other sectors, the number of hours worked per year was relatively low, creating a large gap in annual output per worker across sectors. We model and extend a version of Davis’s reconciliation within a unified growth theory that makes connections between the decline in traditional agriculture and several other features of United States development. The dynamic general equilibrium model is consistent with the structural transformation having minor direct and indirect effects on aggregate labor productivity per hour, but substantial effects on aggregate labor productivity per worker. The model also provides a close match to the trends in schooling, fertility, rates of return to physical capital, and labor productivity growth in the nineteenth century.