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1.
This survey article continues the author's examination of the interaction between domestic capital markets and capital formation by studying the 45 years after the end of World War II. (Part 1 appeared in AEHR 37 (3) 1997.) The significant rise and the sustained increase in the ratio of gross domestic capital formation to gross domestic product (GDP) posed challenges to local deposit taking institutions and capital markets to mobilize savings. The changing balance between public and private investment, and between investment by businesses and households, was reflected in the relative importance of government and private debt, and equity. The capital markets and financial institutions proved themselves to be adaptable enough to finance more than 90 per cent of postwar capital formation. However, the increasing inward and outward flows of foreign direct investment have weakened the nexus between the supply of domestic savings and capital formation.  相似文献   

2.
Conclusion The human toll of September 11 is immeasurable. Obviously, there was lost human and physical capital, but the implications for the long-term GDP effects may not be significant with respect to reallocation of private sector capital to unproductive uses. In our model, we feel there will be a one time reduction of the capital stock in the private sector that does not have implications for productivity growth, but it will have a permanent effect on the level of productivity. Finally, higher government consumption and gross investment has a similar effect. It lowers the national savings rate, crowds out private investment, leads to capital shallowing, and lowers again the level of productivity rather than the growth of productivity. But still in present value terms, the attacks of September 11 have been a big hit to our well being.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, it is argued that the observed high positive correlation between national savings and investment which is found in the data can in part be explained by shocks to monetary policy. This hypothesis, which is established by reviewing some empirical findings, is tested in a two-country DSGE-model framework in the tradition of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics. The simulation results obtained support the idea that shocks to monetary policy might contribute to the explanation of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle.
Caroline SchmidtEmail:
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4.
This paper investigates the effect of financial development on domestic investment in West African countries. The study uses data from 1985 to 2019 and employs the pooled mean group technique. The main finding of the study is that financial development has a positive effect on domestic investment in the long run but an insignificant effect in the short run. Furthermore, remittances, real GDP per capita and trade openness increase investment rate. The results of causality tests support the view that investment is a channel through which financial development stimulates economic growth. Therefore, it is reasonable for the selected countries to formulate policies that promote domestic credit to the private sector in order to ease liquidity constraints and increase investment and economic growth.  相似文献   

5.
Summary A small trading economy which produces and trades an arbitrary, but finite, number of goods and faces given terms of trade in combination with an uncertain volume of trade is studied. An exogenous probability of trade disruption forces both public and private decision-makers to specialize to a lesser extent in accordance with their comparative advantage. A unique optimal point of production exists for each probability of trade disruption. A private competitive economy will not produce at this point: it produces too much of the good with a comparative advantage.Notation C 2 class of twice continuously differentiable functions - C i consumption of goodi - f free-trade utility function - g autarky utility function - p international relative price of goody - p d domestic relative price of goody - Q solution set of - U utility function - U marginal utility of goodi - U x marginal utilities of lastn goods - x goodx - x * autarky production of goodx - x free-trade production of goodx - x pr private production of goodx - x 0 optimal production of goodx - x m maximal production of goodx - y goody - Y income function - private economy equilibrium function - difference function - production possibility function - x derivative of - probability that free trade occurs - indirect utility function - solution function to optimality problem - c consumption vector - p relative price vector - x goods vector - t transpose - R + n n-dimensional positive orthant This article communicates the opinion of the author. The views expressed herein are not necessarily shared by his employer.Comments by Willem Buiter, Casper de Vries and participants at the Buiter Workshop Series at the University of Groningen (May 1989) were very useful.  相似文献   

6.
An integrated capital market can significantly improve prospects for a region which seeks to accelerate its development but is critically short of the requisite capital The function of a capital market is the transformation of savings by private individuals into investment capital required by business concerns. However, the processing of transformation requires mediation between their respective interests through an effective mechanism for facilitating access to the market for capital It also requires allocational efficiency so that capital investment is directed where it is most useful and provides the best yield.

This article considers the measures that should be adopted to facilitate harmonisation leading to the growth of a regional capital market which is necessary for regional integration. It reviews trends in capital controls, corporate and financial regulatory practices and tax regimes and discusses the implications for capital mobilisation and investment. The regionalisation of capital would call for considerable convergence and coordination of policy and practice in capital control, regulatory requirements and fiscal systems.  相似文献   


7.
This study uses newly constructed data on structural reforms and private and public capital stock to assess the effects of financial reforms on capital formation in developing economies. We find that while both domestic and external financial reforms are important determinants of capital formation, the former is more influential in middle-income countries (MICs) and the latter in low-income countries (LICs). For LICs, external financial reforms work mostly through attracting FDI. For MICs, within domestic financial reforms, what matters most are measures related to strengthening banking supervision and reducing credit controls. These results are driven by capital formation in the private sector. In addition, these effects are nonlinear, and it is important for a country's policy when it comes to the sequence of implementing domestic and external financial reforms. Given the importance of public investment in decarbonization, this study further discusses the potential impacts of financial reforms on climate change and carbon inequality.  相似文献   

8.
This article examines the link between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa for the period 1980–2012. Taking the life-cycle hypothesis as our theoretical background and using Johansen co-integration that allows for hypothesis testing, the empirical results revealed a long-run relationship between savings, interest rates and financial sector development. We find an inverse relationship between the interest rate and savings, implying that South Africans are net borrowers because the income effect overwhelms the substitution effect. This in part explains the low level of savings in recent time. Important policy lessons for boosting the national savings rate are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.  相似文献   

10.
Between 1989 and 1993 the government of Paraguay removed most restriction on financial transactions in domestic and foreign currency. The resulting financial deepening also involved partial dollarization. This investigation sought to determine whether partial dollarization led to negative balance sheet effects (in the form of reduced access to investment credit due to depreciation‐induced reduction in firms’ net worth as a result of currency mismatches on their balance sheets) and, therefore, to investment contractions, at the firm level, in the face of real currency depreciations. Support was found for that thesis. However, there was also evidence that banks expanded credit more rapidly in the face of currency depreciations. These apparent contradictory movements in credit and investment were shown to be a result of the absence of any clear causal link (in a Granger sense) between bank credit to the private sector and private investment in Paraguay.  相似文献   

11.
Total capital and economic growth   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
In contrast to the official estimates of gross private domestic investment and associated capital stocks prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the author presents estimates of total investment and capital, human and nonhuman, tangible and nontangible, by all sectors of the U.S. economy. Total investment is 3.1 times the BEA estimate in 1929, rising to 4.1 times in 1990. It accounts for almost half of adjusted GDP in the latter year. As hypothesized, real total capital stocks rise at about the same 2.9 percent average annual rate as real gross domestic product 1929–90, 0.1 percentage points more in the total economy and 0.2 points less in the predominant business sector. Increases in nontangible capital (mainly education, training, health, and research and development—“R&D”-) largely explain the growth in total tangible factor (capital) productivity in the whole economy. Nontangible, human capital has grown relatively faster in the business sector than in the entire economy, helping to explain its more rapid productivity advance. The author recommends that when BEA shifts to the U.N. standard system of accounts, it include nontangible and human tangible investments and capital in “satellite” accounts, as well as tangible investments for all sectors in the core accounts. This will greatly facilitate the analysis of economic growth. Presidential Address at the Thirty-Sixth Atlantic Economic Society Conference, October 7–10, 1993, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  相似文献   

12.
Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Band-pass filters and structural time-series models are applied to the new estimates of Italy’s domestic product from 1861 to 1913. These indicate a strong four-year cycle, derived from the agricultural sector, which curiously (and perhaps spuriously) vanishes after 30 years. Over the longer term GDP and the services reflect the long swing in industrial production, tied to the investment cycle. Agriculture seems marked instead by a further cycle of some 12-15 years, and also by a long wave related to the sector’s terms of trade.  相似文献   

13.
This paper investigates how financial, trade, institutional and political liberalisation policies have affected financial sector competition in Africa using updated data to appraise second‐generation reforms. The “freedom to trade” and “economic freedom” indices are employed. Hitherto, unexplored financial sector concepts of formalisation, semi‐formalisation, informalisation and non‐formalisation are also introduced. The following findings are established. First, relative to money supply, (i) with the exception of the economic freedom mechanism, liberalisation policies have generally decreased the growth of the formal financial sector to the benefit of other financial sectors; (ii) apart from the foreign direct investment and economic freedom channels, liberalisation policies have been fruitful for semi‐formal financial development at the cost of other financial sectors and; (iii) with the exception of economic freedom, both the informal and non‐formal sectors have developed owing to liberalisation to the detriment of the formal financial sector. Second, relative to gross domestic product, the semi‐formal, informal and/or non‐formal financial sectors have also generally improved as a result of liberalisation. Policy implications are discussed.  相似文献   

14.
China's success in attracting foreign direct investment has been cast in doubt as mainly a transfer of capital, not knowhow, because its financial system is incapable of allocating domestic savings and hard-earned foreign reserves to domestic enterprises. To shed light on this debate, we examine the determinants of equity sharing in Sino-foreign joint ventures with the premise that the roles of foreign direct investment (in transferring capital or knowhow) should be reflected in equity sharing between multinational firms and local firms. Our empirical analysis offers strong evidence for foreign direct investment as a transfer of knowhow, but limited support for foreign direct investment as a transfer of capital, which points to the need for further reform in China's financial system.  相似文献   

15.
Feldstein and Horioka (Econ J 90:314–329, 1980) observed that saving and investment move closely together in the major OECD countries. This finding is a puzzle if national economies are characterized by one sector neoclassical production functions—with diminishing returns to capital, a high level of savings in a country should create an incentive to export capital. In this paper, we show that this incentive disappears in the presence of multiple sectors with differing capital intensities. In a high saving country, national capital can be absorbed domestically without a decline in its marginal product through a shift in the sectoral composition of national production towards capital intensive sectors. This is nothing but the well-known Rybczynski effect. We present a modified version of the standard Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) Model to show that very small barriers to capital mobility are enough to force national savings to stay within the country of origin. We also argue that, while the assumptions of this model may appear special, they are not unrealistic for the developed countries in the Feldstein Horioka study. Some historical economic trends are also consistent with the picture presented in this paper. Finally, the paper shows that the conventional insights from the one sector neoclassical model can be completely overturned in a multi-sector setting when technological differences are introduced.
Ufuk DemirogluEmail:
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16.
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.  相似文献   

17.
政府投资主要是提供公共产品,但仅由政府提供会出现不经济。公共产品的内涵分析也表明私人是可以供给公共产品的,但要解决公共产品外部性问题。以城市轨道交通投资为例分析,发现通过外部收益内部化我国香港地铁实现了盈利,内地政府借鉴其经验,大力引进社会资金投资地铁,减轻了资金压力,提高了投资的效率。这表明通过分析投资对象特点和制度安排是能够改变当前政府投资制度的,即社会资金是愿意进入公共产品供给的,政府是可以从某些领域退出的。  相似文献   

18.
Mandatory Pensions and Personal Savings in The Netherlands*   总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0  
The Netherlands has a relatively generous social security system and a wide coverage of individuals by private (occupational) pension schemes. Total household savings are rather high and fairly stable, although the amount of contractual savings apears to be going up at the expense of non-contractual (free) savings. Using an approach originally pioneered by Feldstein (1974) we employ microdata to investigate the displacement effect of security and pension wealth on free household savings. It turns out that the data available are too noisy to make precise statements about the displacement effects. Our results do suggest, however, that a one-for-one displacement of free savings by social security is consistent with the data. For pensions such a complete offset is less likely. This suggests that increase of coverage by private pensions is an effective way of raising savings.  相似文献   

19.
《World development》1987,15(3):399-404
Interest continues in the Mexican government's finance and expenditure policy due to the severity and length of fiscal crises. According to FitzGerald, Mexican deficits were financed through increased savings crowding out consumption but not private investment. Using official IMF data this paper attempts to verify the FitzGerald thesis. By and large our results suggest the Mexican economy is best depicted along Keynesian lines and not FitzGerald's Kaleckian interpretation. This conclusion is further substantiated by the prolonged nature of the country's current economic crisis associated with record high central government deficits and subdued levels of private sector investment. If his thesis were valid for an earlier time (1951–1965), many of these relationships disappeared between 1965 and 1981.  相似文献   

20.
This article examines the effects of political agreements on regional financial integration (RFI) on financial market development and access to and cost of finance in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Our results suggest that RFI positively affects financial development – measured very broadly as ratio of liquid liabilities to gross domestic product (GDP) – when combined with a sufficient level of institutional quality. If institutional quality is below a threshold level, RFI apparently has negative effects on financial development. However, we cannot find any significant effects of RFI on the ratio of private credit to GDP or on the efficiency of the banking sector. Regarding the effects of RFI on access to and costs of finance of enterprises in SSA, our results are mixed. We can find no significant effect of RFI on access to finance for all firms in the aggregate, but the results indicate that RFI actually impedes small firms' access to finance. Furthermore, there is a significant positive influence of foreign bank involvement on the severity of the credit constraint for small enterprises, while we do not find such an influence for large enterprises. These results provide some support for the foreign bank barrier hypothesis in the context of RFI.  相似文献   

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