风险度量的经济学理性与风险度量方法比较

本文引入风险度量的经济学理性概念:一种风险度量方法为经济学理性的是指,这种方法对风险的度量结果与经济学中理性人对风险的排序结果相一致,采用这种方法度量风险的决策者,其决策结果也是经济学理性的。本文从风险状态下的决策理论出发,论证了在银行监管问题上,经济学理性的风险度量方法需要满足的条件。结合银行资本充足率监管的演进趋势,比较了几种重要的风险度量方法,并提出了一种经济学理性的、符合银行监管需要的风险度量方法。     

A new approach to modeling decision-making under uncertainty

This paper presents two axiomatic models of decision making under uncertainty that avoid the use of a state space. The first is a subjective expected utility model with action-dependent subjective probabilities and effect-dependent preferences (the case of effect-independent preferences is obtained as a special instance). The second is a nonexpected utility model involving well-defined families of action-dependent subjective probabilities on effects and a utility representation that is not necessarily linear in these probabilities (a probabilistic sophistication version of this model, with action-dependent subjective probabilities is obtained as a special case). The hospitality of EUREQua, University of Paris 1, and financial support by the National Science Foundation grant SES-0314249 are gratefully acknowledged.     

基于价值链的企业信用风险管理体系

本文在科学把握企业信用风险管理和价值链理论的基础上，将波特价值链分析法应用于企业信用风险管理，以销售——回款过程为主线，构建了企业信用风险管理价值链，探讨了企业信用风险管理的基本理论和管理技术。     

Modelling the dependency between currency and debt crises: An option based approach

The interrelation between currency and debt crises is considered in a model relying on option pricing theory. By capturing uncertainty and time aspects in this stochastic and dynamic framework we analyze parameters that determine the probabilities and dependencies of these crises.     

Expected utility theory and prospect theory: one wedding and a decent funeral

Choice behavior is typically evaluated by assuming that the data is generated by one latent decision-making process or another. What if there are two (or more) latent decision-making processes generating the observed choices? Some choices might then be better characterized as being generated by one process, and other choices by the other process. A finite mixture model can be used to estimate the parameters of each decision process while simultaneously estimating the probability that each process applies to the sample. We consider the canonical case of lottery choices in a laboratory experiment and assume that the data is generated by expected utility theory and prospect theory decision rules. We jointly estimate the parameters of each theory as well as the fraction of choices characterized by each. The methodology provides the wedding invitation, and the data consummates the ceremony followed by a decent funeral for the representative agent model that assumes only one type of decision process. The evidence suggests support for each theory, and goes further to identify under what demographic domains one can expect to see one theory perform better than the other. We therefore propose a reconciliation of the debate over two of the dominant theories of choice under risk, at least for the tasks and samples we consider. The methodology is broadly applicable to a range of debates over competing theories generated by experimental and non-experimental data.     

Expected utility theory and experimental utility measurement, 1950–1985. From confidence to scepticism

Abstract

The paper reconstructs the history of the experimental attempts to measure the cardinal utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by expected utility theory (EUT). It is shown that this history displays a definite trajectory: from the confidence in EUT and the EUT-based measurement of utility of the 1950s to the scepticism that, from the mid-1970s, haunted the validity of EUT as well as the significance of the utility measures obtained through it. By exploring the diverse aspects and causes of this trajectory, the paper covers new ground in the history of both decision theory and utility measurement.     

Risk Attitudes of Children and Adults: Choices Over Small and Large Probability Gains and Losses

In this paper we examine how risk attitudes change with age. We present participants from age 5 to 64 with choices between simple gambles and the expected value of the gambles. The gambles are over both gains and losses, and vary in the probability of the non-zero payoff. Surprisingly, we find that many participants are risk seeking when faced with high-probability prospects over gains and risk averse when faced with small-probability prospects. Over losses we find the exact opposite. Children's choices are consistent with the underweighting of low-probability events and the overweighting of high-probability ones. This tendency diminishes with age, and on average adults appear to use the objective probability when evaluating risky prospects.     

Theories of choice under risk: Insights from financial markets

To date, the plausibility of theories of choice under risk hinges are mainly on experimental evidence. This paper devises and implements an approach amenable of assessing the performance of three families of models (expected utility, rank-dependent expected utility, and the cumulative prospect theory) using information from financial asset markets. Our findings unequivocally support reference-point dependence, diminishing marginal sensitivity, loss aversion, and nonlinear weighting of (gain and loss) physical probabilities. The empirical observations are found to be robust to, inter alia, the parameterization of the utility and probability weighting functions, “day-of-the-week effects”, the choice of a reference point, and the introduction of possible, low-probability market crashes (peso component).     

Option valuation with liquidity risk and jumps

This article provides a simple model for pricing and hedging options in the presence of jumps and liquidity costs. In the article, liquidity risk is modelled via a stochastic supply curve function and a jump-diffusion process is approximated by a Markov chain. Local risk minimization incorporating liquidity risk is proposed to price and hedge European options in this discrete-time model. Moreover, an example is provided to implement the modified risk minimization method and to demonstrate the performance of hedging strategies.     

Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

The price gap between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil markets has been completely changed in the past several years. The price of WTI was always a little larger than that of Brent for a long time. However, the price of WTI has been surpassed by that of Brent since 2011. The new market circumstances and volatility of oil price require a comprehensive re-estimation of risk. Therefore, this study aims to explore an integrated approach to assess the price risk in the two crude oil markets through the value at risk (VaR) model. The VaR is estimated by the extreme value theory (EVT) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns.     

Knock-out for descriptive utility or experimental-design error?

Using an experimental design of stating equivalent probabilities for 252 stimulus lottery pairs, Chechile and Cooke (1997) alleged to have refuted generic-utility theory which itself comprises many modern utility theories. The present paper systematically investigates the feasibility of the Chechile-Cooke experimental design using numerical methods. We examine 1,277 utility setups (involving 17 parameter sets for four probability-weighting functions and 11 parameter sets for three component utility functions) which represent ten different utility theories. Our results demonstrate that on average for more than one third of all stimulus lottery pairs no equivalent probabilities exist. That is, the Chechile-Cooke experimental design prevents subjects from stating their true probability equivalents. Therefore, they cannot claim to have refuted generic-utility theory and the members of its family.This paper was submitted to theJournal of Risk and Uncertainty on January 14, 1999. It was, however, rejected on April 16, 1999.     

用风险价值度量固定收入债券的市场风险

笔者主要研究了固定收益证券的市场风险量化方法。在对债券合理定价的基础上,引入新型的风险监管方法—VAR(风险价值),对债券的市场风险进行定量分析。文中用三种方法(参数法、历史模拟法、蒙特卡罗法)计算了债券的VAR。     

行为资产定价理论综述

如何刻画投资者行为是资产定价理论 50年来发展的主要脉络。在消费资本资产定价模型基础上 ,通过修正投资者的效用函数而发展起来的行为资产定价理论 ,对投资者行为的认识达到了新的高度。本文构造了行为资产定价的一般均衡研究框架 ,指出了此框架与行为金融理论的区别 ,并在此框架下 ,综述了当前流行的行为资产定价模型。文章最后分析了行为资产定价理论的下一步发展方向。     

基于效用成本风险异质性的消费资本资产定价模型

资产定价既是现代金融的核心,也是许多困惑之所在,其中最著名的就是股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜。本文对消费资本资产定价模型中的效用成本做了重新思考,引入\"效用成本风险异质性\"的概念,并将效用成本区分为\"消费效用成本\"和\"风险效用成本\"。在此基础上,本文提出了消费资本资产定价模型的新形式,并对股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜进行解释。     

“劳动”，经济学不称职的向导

“劳动”概念,从古典经济学的核心词汇沦落为现代西方经济学的边缘词汇,是因为这一概念本身存在的逻辑上、功用上的致命缺陷：概念模糊、自陷矛盾,劳动价值论缺乏解释力,在处理核心经济问题（效率与公平问题）上缺乏功效。     

边际效用价值论与劳动价值论的统一——兼论边际效用价值论100年的弯路

劳动价值论和边际效用价值论是从不同角度对社会财富和商品价值的度量,劳动价值论成为了分析社会结构的基础,而边际效用价值论不具备这种功能,并走上了100年的弯路;本文证明了:社会总效用量与社会总劳动耗费量的统一,商品的边际效用与生产商品的社会必要劳动时间的统一,以及总量与个量计量的统一.对两种价值论统一性的论证,进一步证明劳动价值理论及其作为社会经济结构分析基础的正确性.     

电子商务中信用风险生成机理及防范策略研究

近年来,随着电子商务中欺诈事件的增多,诚信缺失问题日趋严重,由此引发的信用风险已成为严重阻碍电子商务良性发展的重要因素之一。针对这一问题,文中运用博弈论工具,系统地分析了电子商务中交易双方在完全信息以及不完全信息这两种情况下,信用风险的生成机理,识别出影响信用风险发生的关键因素。通过分析得出,对欺诈行为的惩罚力度、贴现因子以及声誉等因素会影响信用风险的发生概率,并且与其存在反向相关关系。这意味着在电子商务中,对欺诈行为的惩罚力度越大,贴现因子越大以及企业为提高其声誉所做的努力越大,则在交易中发生信用风险的概率越低。最后,在以上分析的基础上,文中针对性地提出信用风险的防范策略,包括：①发挥电子商务中介监督职能;②加大对欺诈行为的惩罚力度;③进一步完善相关法律法规;④构建信任的文化环境,增强交易双方的信任关系。