First Harvest Drop in 7 Years——Declining Grain Output may Boost Inflation？

The booming summer grain harvest this year saw a slight decline in to the low spring tem erature in Chinese north regions and also the drought disaster in the southwestern region, According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 12th,     

Inflation Risk?

Intereconomics - Inflation is on the rise again in the industrialised world. This has led to fears of a sustained surge in inflation. This article argues that while such fears may make sense in the...     

Nation''''s Grain Output to Top 490 mln Tons in 2006

China's grain output would increase for the third consecutive year to more than 490 million tons in 2006, according to the State Grain and Oil Information Center. The center slightly raised its 2006 maize, wheat and rice production forecasts. But the soybean forecast was cut by 400,000 tons to 15.5 million tons.     

Can a Higher Inflation Target Reduce Inflation Volatility?

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility. Using monthly data from 1913 to 2013, the results show that U.S. inflation and its volatility have been positively correlated when inflation exceeds a certain value, but negatively correlated when inflation is below this threshold. The evidence also suggests that inflation volatility is minimized between annual inflation rates of 1 and 3.6%, which includes both the 2% inflation target of many central banks, and the 3.5% break point predicted by the New Keynesian model of Coibion et al. ( 2012 ), but not the 4% inflation target recommended by Ball ( 2013 ) and Krugman ( 2013 ).     

Nation＇s Grain Output to Top 490 mln Tons in 2006

China＇s grain output would increase for the third consecutive year to more than 490 million tons in 2006, according to the State Grain and Oil Information Center.     

Money,Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?

ABSTRACT

This study examines the non-linear relationship between money, inflation and output with respect to the Friedman and Schwartz hypotheses that monetary policy affects prices in the long-run but not in the short-run, and influences output in the short-run but not in the long-run. The study examines the case of Nigeria and South Africa for the period 1970–2016 using the ARDL approach. The study proved that Friedman and Schwartz were right that money growth influences output in the short-run and not in the long-run. This suggests monetary policy is neutral in the long-run; however, the findings of this study cast some doubts on their popular view that money growth affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. This study shows that money growth actually affects prices both in the short and long-run. Thus, it is only the long-run dimension of the second hypothesis that is valid; the short-run view of the hypothesis is invalid for both Nigeria and South Africa. In fact, the significant estimates of money growth on inflation in both countries prove that inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon (both in the short and long run).     

Rückkehr der Inflation?

In Deutschland sind derzeit wieder so hohe Inflationsraten zu verzeichnen wie zuletzt im Wiedervereinigungsboom. Was sind die Ursachen dafür? Wie sind unterschiedliche Bev?lkerungsgruppen davon betroffen? Wie sieht es in den anderen L?ndern der Europ?ischen W?hrungsunion aus? Besteht die Gefahr einer Lohn-Preis-Spirale? Stehen wir vor einer erneuten Stagflation? Die Autoren unseres Zeitgespr?chs: PD Dr. Christian Dreger, 49, ist Leiter der Abteilung Konjunktur im Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung DIW in Berlin. Prof. Dr. Hans Wolfgang Brachinger, 56, leitet das Forschungszentrum für Wirtschaftsstatistik an der Universit?t Fribourg, Schweiz, und ist Pr?sident der Schweizerischen Bundesstatistikkommission. Prof. Dr. Ralf Fendel, 40, ist Professor für monet?re ?konomik an der WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management (Vallendar) und an der European Business School (EBS) in Wiesbaden. Prof. Dr. Ronald Schettkat, 53, lehrt Volkswirtschaftslehre insbesondere Wirtschaftspolitik an der Bergischen Universit?t in Wuppertal.     

Grain bank or grain reserve?

This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of grain reserves and grain banks. One important argument against establishing official reserves is that they are more likely to stiffen the barriers to food trade whereas a financial grain bank might be used to reduce those barriers. A regime of trade in which markets for food crops are more open would also be a more integrated world.     

Folgen der Inflation abfedern,aber wie?

Wirtschaftsdienst - Seit einigen Monaten ist die Inflation auf einem hohen Niveau. Um 7,5 % erhöhten sich die Verbraucherpreise in Deutschland im Juli 2022 gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Der...     

How Has Globalisation Affected Inflation in China?

This paper investigates how globalisation has affected inflation in China. We estimated standard Phillips curve inflation equations and examined whether globalisation has affected the structure of inflation dynamics as captured by the Phillips curve. Empirical results suggest that the globalisation of the Chinese economy has changed the behaviour of inflation dynamics. In particular, the impact of domestic and global output gaps on domestic inflation in China has changed significantly since 1994. Before 1994, the domestic output gap was a major factor in driving domestic inflation. After 1994, however, the global output gap plays a significant and more important role in affecting domestic inflation. The finding implies that Chinese monetary authorities should specifically take into account the developments in global output in their monetary policymaking process.     

Inflation nach Corona: Sind die Sorgen berechtigt?

Wirtschaftsdienst - Im August 2021 wird die deutsche Inflationsrate voraussichtlich auf 3,9 % steigen. Ein Teil davon dürfte einmaligen oder vorübergehenden Effekten geschuldet sein....     

Declining Protection in Developing Countries: Fact or Fiction?

This paper explores whether and to what extent evident trade reform, falling average tariffs and rising exports in recent decades overstate the extent to which protectionism has declined in developing countries, especially low‐income developing countries. It identifies remaining significant protection, especially of final manufactured goods; this being associated with the presence of peak tariffs, escalating tariff structures by stage of production and replacement of old forms of non‐tariff protection with new instruments of non‐tariff protection. It also identifies significant protection arising from high international trade costs induced by inefficiencies in transportation, ports and customs, and from the growth of exports to preference‐receiving, export markets.     

Does Calculating Retirement Needs Boost Retirement Savings?

Calculating retirement savings needs is often viewed as an essential first step in retirement planning. Yet, little empirical evidence exists to support the value of this activity. This case study examines the connection between calculating retirement savings needs and retirement savings through analysis of an online survey of benefits‐eligible employees at a large Mountain West university. Controlling for a variety of possible covariates, and using an instrumental variable approach, the case study shows that having estimated a retirement savings target increases self‐reported retirement savings. The results provide support for financial educators and planners in their efforts to encourage people to estimate their retirement needs early in the retirement planning process.     

How Fat‐Tailed is US Output Growth?

Several studies have recently rejected the common hypothesis that aggregate output is normally distributed. The present paper reconsiders this issue for US output growth. To this end, it focusses on the shape parameter b of the exponential power distribution (EPD), the two polar values of which constitute the normal distribution and the Laplace distribution with its fatter tails, respectively. The paper first warns against premature conclusions that neglect a structural break in output volatility. On the basis of a battery of Monte Carlo experiments, it is then found out that the results strongly depend on which subperiod is considered, the Great Inflation (GI) or the Great Moderation (GM) period, and which data are referred to, the growth rates of GDP, firm sector output, and quarterly or monthly industrial production (IP). Here, only quarterly IP can be said to exhibit fat tails in GI as well as GM; other evidence is mixed.     

Does Export Openness Increase Firm‐level Output Volatility?

There is a widespread concern that increased trade may lead to increased instability and thus risk at the firm level. Greater export openness can indeed affect firm‐level volatility by changing the exposure and the reaction of firms to macroeconomic developments. The net effect is ambiguous from a theoretical point of view. This paper provides firm‐level evidence on the link between openness and volatility. Using comprehensive data on more than 21,000 German manufacturing firms for the period 1980–2001, we analyse the evolution of firm‐level output volatility and the link between volatility and export openness. Our paper has three main findings. First, firm‐level output volatility is significantly higher than the level of aggregate volatility, but it displays similar patterns. Second, increased export openness lowers firm‐level output volatility. This effect is primarily driven by variations along the extensive margin, i.e. by the distinction between exporters and non‐exporters. Variations along the intensive margin, i.e. the volume of exports, tend to have a dampening impact on volatility as well. Third, small firms are more volatile than large firms.     

The Fed's New Communication Strategy: Is It Stealth Inflation Targeting?

Business Economics - Along with the minutes of the October 30-31, 2007, meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee released a summary of its members' forecasts of key economic variables, a...     

Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

     

Declining Competition in Food Retailing: An Opportunity for Consumer Food Cooperatives?

Food cooperatives have become more popular among consumers during the past decade. Although consumers can organize cooperatives for several reasons, economic factors may be more important than indicated by previous research. Specifically, the recent growth in consumer food cooperatives may be associated with declining competition in local food markets. This article reports recent research results on market structure and performance by SMSA that address this hypothesis.