An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Residential Mortgage Debt

Despite the growth of theoretical mortgage-pricing research, few empirical tests have been published. The primary objective of this paper is to provide an empirical test of the contingent-claims approach to pricing residential mortgages. This is accomplished by examining the differences between contract mortgage rates generated by the theoretical contingent-claims model and corresponding actual rates observed for 121 consecutive months from January 1981 through January 1991. We find that the contingent-claims model produces an unbiased prediction of changes in actual rates.     

浅析我国的流动性过剩现象和通货膨胀

流动性过剩已经成为我国经济运行过程中存在的一个严重问题。从分析流动性过剩的现象入手,剖析我国流动性过剩与通货膨胀的关系以及此类通货膨胀的特点,并有针对性的提出对策。     

Loan Subsidy Valuation: An Alternative Approach

In a recent paper, Jennergren analyzed four loan subsidy valuation methods suggested in authoritative textbooks. He showed that the first three can be derived from a unique formula whose value depends on the nonsubsidized loan amount that is assumed to be replaced by the subsidized loan. When the WACC method is used, this debt replacement must implicitly take into account the target debt-to-value ratio set by the firm. In this article, we suggest an alternative approach that allows us to clearly incorporate the corresponding debt constraint and to determine the resulting adjustment to be made. This adjustment appears to be different from that recommended by Jennergren. More generally, we suggest an alternative view of the consistency of the methods.     

持续经营审计意见的多变量分析

本文采用实证研究方法,分析注册会计师出具持续经营审计意见的影响因素,并从持续经营能力判别因素变量中,找出七个与持续经营审计意见显著相关的指标变量进行分析,试图为注册会计师控制执业风险提供一种定量分析思路,以期提高注册会计师持续经营审计的准确性.     

Estimating Market Power with Weak A Priori Information: An Exploratory Approach to the Model-Specification Problem

Choosing the wrong theoretical model to describe an industry??s behavior may lead to biased estimates of the degree of market power. This paper presents a two-step, data-driven methodology to reduce the risk of mis-specification bias. In the first step, a sliced inverse regression identifies the significant factors that affect the industry??s pricing behavior. In the second step, a non-parametric regression of price on the SIR factors estimates the link functions. The output of the algorithm offers useful information to identify the model that best approximates the industry??s pricing behavior. In addition, the output of the algorithm is used to develop a post-estimation test for model specification.     

融资租赁：一种解决中小企业融资问题的办法

本文在对我国现行中小企业融资总是现状、所采取的对策和进一步解决的主流思路考察的基础上，认为要从根本上解决中小企业融资问题需要进一步拓宽思路。由于融资租赁具有融资融物、财产两权分离等诸多特性，不失为解决我国中小企业融资问题的一种可行办法，并具有其独特的优势。本文的最后，提出了促进我国融资租赁业发展的若干措施和建议。     

A Multi-Attribute Product Life-Cycle Approach to Replacement Decisions: An Application of Saaty's System-With-Feedback Method

The lack of investment in new manufacturing technology compromises the long-range competitiveness of a manufacturing company. The choice of appropriate manufacturing equipment is an extremely important management decision. This paper presents a multi-attribute approach to equipment replacement decisions based on the product life-cycle. The problem is formulated using the System-With-Feedback (SWF) model developed by Saaty [10]. Saaty's model is particularly suitable tor the modeling of time-dynamic and tnieraciive elements of such replacement situations.     

国有重点煤炭企业发行可转换公司债券探讨

可转换公司债券（以下简称转券）是一种新型的金融衍生工具,于７０年代后期在西方证券市场上推出,８０年代盛行,至８０年代末９０年代初已被亚洲国家所广泛采用。我国企业尝试运用转券筹资始于１９９１年,先后有深宝安、中纺机、深南玻等上市公司在境内外发行转券。１...     

Modelling Professional Sports Leagues: An Industrial Organization Approach

This paper outlines a simple model of professional sports contests that can provide a number of useful insights into the operations of professional sports leagues. The model incorporates a concern for competitive balance on the part of fans and has the advantage that a number of league market structures can be analyzed using standard industrial organization techniques. The model can also be used to determine the effect of a number of league rules including revenue sharing, payroll caps, and luxury taxes on the respective demands for talented players. In addition, it can be shown that the model of professional sports contests developed here has a useful parallel with a standard model of differentiated products.      

Multivariate statistics in industrial marketing management: A practitioner tool kit

Much published work over the years has pointed to the differences between business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) marketing. An undesirable by-product of this sometimes misdirected distinction is that managers working within B2B environments have generally not considered the use of what are seen as B2C techniques, such as multivariate statistical analysis. This article is structured in three parts. First, the argument for the similarities between B2B and B2C marketing is developed; second, three different multivariate statistical techniques are presented and combined to form a practical tool kit for use by B2B managers on strategic, operational, and tactical levels; and third, the results of an application of the techniques in the life science research chemicals industry is reported, demonstrating that the tool kit substantially enhanced managerial understanding of customer decision processes.     

Unions and Police Productivity: An Econometric Investigation

We examine the effect of unionization on police productivity in large U.S. metropolitan areas. We define police output in the context of a production function model that draws also on the crime literature. We estimate the resulting model using a data set that includes published and unpublished government statistics as well as our own survey of police departments. Results suggest that the effect of unions on police productivity varies according to categories of police performance. In particular, if performance is stratified according to the severity of crimes, unions seem to have an insignificant effect on police productivity with respect to serious crimes. For minor crimes, unionization alters the parameters of police production function, leading to diminished productivity.     

港口经济综合评价指标的因子分析

对港口经济进行综合评价需要建立一套综合评价指标体系。本文选取2008年综合竞争力排名靠前的港口作为样本,通过收集各样本在2009年的经济指标数据,利用因子分析计算出各个港口经济的综合得分和排名。结果表明所选取的指标具有高度的内在关联性,可据此有效地对港口经济情况进行评价和建议。其中,大部分港口的经济排名和货物吞吐量排名差异较小,只有南京、深圳、秦皇岛、营口和日照等港口因各自情况的不同而具有较大的差异。     

某住宅楼沉降原因分析

通过对场地工程地质条件、基础设计、搅拌桩施工和沉降观测等资料进行综合分析,认为某2#住宅楼东、西两端七层至三层发生裂缝是由不均匀沉降造成的.勘察部门曾建议砾砂层⑤作为持力层,采用预制桩;而设计为搅拌桩,桩端至原状粘土层,即②层硬～可塑状粘土,属表土层作为持力层.往下的③、④两层为可～软塑状粉质粘土和疏松的粉砂,其承载力标准值只有75～155 kpa,与设计的处理后复合地基承载力200 kPa相比两者相差较大,造成该住宅楼产生不均匀沉降和倾斜,建筑结构师们应借以为鉴.     

Reverse Mortgages and the Liquidity of Housing Wealth

Housing wealth constitutes most of the non-pension wealth of the elderly population. This study analyzes the potential of reverse mortgages to increase the income and liquid wealth of the elderly by identifying households with relatively high levels of housing equity. Because this article looks at the whole distribution of elderly households and considers debt as well as income, it finds a larger potential market for reverse mortgages than previous studies.
Calculations from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation and Census population estimates show that over six million homeowners in the United States could increase their effective monthly income by at least 20% by using a reverse mortgage. Of these, more than 1.3 million have no children. Furthermore, a reverse mortgage would allow over 1.4 million poor elderly persons to raise their incomes above the poverty line.     

Renegotiation of Concession Contracts: A Theoretical Approach

We construct a regulation model in which renegotiation occurs due to the imperfect enforcement of concession contracts. This enables us to provide theoretical predictions for the impact, on the probability of renegotiation of a concession, of regulatory policy, institutional features, economic shocks and of several characteristics of the concession contracts themselves.     

老旧小区适老化改造研究 ——以辽宁省S小区为例

老旧小区作为既有建筑的一种,目前是老年人居住和养老的主要载体,但由于功能和设施的缺失,存在各类老年人居住不"适老"的问题,其中养老设施和服务缺失尤为严重,使得小区作为养老的主要载体无老可养、无法养老.以辽宁省辽阳市某S小区为例,通过分析小区现状,结合数据计算,得出小区养老需求,围绕内外环境改造的总体目标,从空间和需求视...     

Residential Construction Volatility: A Seasonal and Cyclical Inventory Adjustment Analysis

The seasonality of inventories and the seasonality and cyclicality of sales of new single-family residences by speculative builders may be formally introduced into a partial production adjustment inventory model of housing starts. The theoretical results include variables that imply an interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. A specification error bias in the estimation of the partial adjustment coefficient is evaluated for models that exclude the interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. Stabilization policy is more complex when cyclical instability changes season to season. In this view, justification is found for a seasonal stabilization policy in housing.     

Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza–Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25–50% of the sample lies in the positive response region.