经济结构变化和经济增长

本文试图从生产技术角度构建一个多部门的经济增长模型，同时容纳Kuznets事实和Kaldor事实。模型经济由最终部门和多个中间部门组成，最终产品由各中间产品以CES函数形式生产。各中间部门的技术增长率不同，而这种差异引起经济结构变化，并导致中间产品的相对价格变化，进而决定各中间部门之间要素流动和产值相对份额变动。最终产品的技术增长率为各中间部门的技术增长率加权平均和，并随经济增长单方向变动，变动方向与中间产品之间的替代弹性大小相关。     

Structural Change and Economic Growth

This paper presents a model in which a country's measured average propensity to save endogenously rises when its economy industrializes. The model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Only agriculture uses land. If at early dates income per capita is low, agricultural consumption is important, land is valuable, and capital gains on land may constitute most wealth accumulation, leaving the country's NIPA APS low. If exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time, Engel's law shifts demand to manufactured goods. Then land's portfolio importance relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the national income and products account saving rate can rise.     

Structural Change and Generalized Balanced Growth

This paper addresses the criticism that balanced growth models are inconsistent with the dynamics of structural change characterizing the process of economic development. Using a sectoral disaggregated version of a research-driven growth model, we develop the concept of a generalized balanced growth path (GBGP). Along a GBGP, macroeconomic variables grow at constant rates while disaggregated variables grow at non-constant rates. As a result, balanced growth in macroeconomic aggregates and structural change can occur simultaneously. Received April 3, 2001; revised version received February 20, 2002 Published online: November 11, 2002     

农业技术发展与经济结构变迁

本文发现,工业部门就业与投资率在经济增长过程中呈现的驼峰形变化可以用农业生产技术的转变来解释。从传统农业向现代农业转变需要新的资本投入,转变所释放的剩余劳动力需要积累资本进入其他现代产业,这都增加了对资本品的需求,进而带动工业部门扩张,引发工业化过程。随着农业技术的现代化趋于完成,对资本品的需求渐趋回落,使得工业部门不断收缩,并逐步收敛到长期的广义平衡增长路径上。本文利用一组包括34个国家经济结构变迁过程的数据,对上述推论进行检验并证实:农业部门的变化在工业化过程中对投资率有显著的影响,进而影响了工业部门的就业占比。但是,在去工业化过程中,农业部门的变化将不再影响投资率。     

Economic Policy for Structural Change

Starting from a conceptualization of structural change as an uneven phenomenon punctuated by technological revolutions that give rise to long-term movements of real and monetary variables, i.e. long waves, this paper puts forth an explanation of radical technical change. Then, drawing upon Post-Keynesian theory, the neo-Schumpeterian school of techno-economic paradigms, and the work of Luigi L. Pasinetti, we suggest guidelines for economic policy to manage structural change and its consequences. While economic policy cannot by itself fully tame the dynamics of structural change, it can ameliorate its disruptive effects, firstly by helping us to manage the stagnation phase of the long wave in order to avoid a deep depression; secondly by preparing the way for a new long-wave and, thirdly, by facilitating the establishment of the institutional conditions for the diffusion of the new technological paradigm. The paper concludes by comparing these suggested policies with those pursued by the dominant western economies after the Second World War. We find that three broad factors—a misdiagnosis of the nature of the crisis that began in the 1970s; a shift in power relations that was strongly unfavorable to the working class; and the rise of neoliberal ideology—led to the adoption of policies that had disastrous social and economic consequences.     

地方官员引领产业结构变动

新结构经济学在理论上揭示了发展中国家政府引领产业结构变动的可能性。本文构造了中国省级官员与四位数制造业产业结构变动相匹配的面板数据,系统分析省级官员对辖区产业结构变动的影响,结果发现,在1998—2007年间,平均而言,省委书记省长在短期内能引领辖区产业结构变动;其引领效应随任期增加而下降。本文的发现是相当稳健的,揭示了产业结构变动在短期可以靠官员,在长期主要靠市场。     

Structural Change and Economic Growth in China

This study develops a new analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach is expanded to include another source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low‐productivity sectors to high‐productivity sectors. It is found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, further development of rural enterprises and an increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions are key to improvements in overall economic efficiency.     

会计电算化与会计信息化

会计电算化是以传统会计理论和计算机技术为基础的 ,而会计信息化的理论基础还包含信息技术系统论和信息化论等现代思想。以计算机技术为基础的会计电算化系统已经开始不能满足经济发展的要求 ,采用 Internet/Intranet技术作为其应用基础的会计信息化系统应时代的要求开始普及。在技术手段、功能范围、系统层次和地位、信息输入输出等方面 ,会计信息化与会计电算化存在显著差异 ,会计信息化将取代会计电算化。     

劳动力迁移与中国制造业结构转型升级

劳动力迁移会对劳动力供给的空间配置产生影响,最终影响产业结构转型升级.产业结构的升级一般包括产业高级化和产业合理化.本文选取2002—2015年省级面板数据,使用动态面板模型对劳动力迁移和制造业的高级化和合理化进行分析.结果发现:劳动力迁移会促进流入地制造业合理化程度的提高,但不利于制造业的高级化.只有在外资规模较大和人力资本积累水平较高的地区,劳动力迁入才会对本地的制造业高级化产生积极影响;外资规模、人力资本积累和市场化程度的提高都有利于增强劳动力迁移对制造业结构合理化的积极作用.本文的研究结论为我国未来进一步优化产业结构、培育先进制造业和实现经济高质量发展提供了一个新的视角.     

Distributional Consequences of Competitive Structural Change

This paper examines the distributional consequences of a shift toward a more capital intensive technique in an economy inhabited by infinitely-lived consumers and with a complete set of competitive markets. We show that income inequality goes through a form of Kuznets curve: inequality jumps when the capital intensive technique is introduced, monotically rises during the structural change, and abruptly falls when the adoption of the new technique ends. The total effect of the structural change is an increase in income inequality.     

Structural Change and the Labor-market Effects of Globalization

The paper develops a simple political‐economy model of unemployment benefit determination in a small open economy characterized by bargaining between firms and unions. The authors derive a number of comparative static results and present empirical results for a panel of OECD countries that are broadly consistent with the theory.     

Structural Change and Growth in a NEG Model

This paper presents a New Economic Geography model of structural change, agglomeration and growth. Assuming a non‐homothetic preference structure, our results show that a progressive reduction of trade costs allows the economy to pass from a pre‐industrialized to an industrialized stage and then, within the latter, from a dispersed to an urbanized regime. However, the introduction of capital accumulation and the dynamic setting of our model opens the door to a richer set of implications. First, an additional stage is introduced as, for some intermediate values of trade costs, a multiple equilibria regime emerges with simultaneously stable symmetric and core‐periphery equilibria. Second, the introduction of non‐homotheticity introduces a new channel through which growth is affected by trade costs and agglomeration. In particular, integration is always growth‐enhancing while agglomeration is growth‐detrimental.     

产业内贸易的结构变动与决定因素——基于中国电子及通讯设备制造业的实证分析

对1996—2005年中国电子及通讯设备制造业产业内贸易的结构、变动及决定因素进行的实证分析显示：中国电子及通讯设备制造业贸易以产业内贸易为主,产业内贸易又以垂直产业内贸易为主,水平产业内贸易贡献不大;加入WTO前后两个阶段产业内贸易及其结构变动呈相反的趋势;要素禀赋结构及其变化是产业内贸易变动的主要因素,而外商直接投资、规模经济和产品差异三个因素的影响很微弱。这表明中国电子及通讯设备制造业扩张的基础是成本优势且主要集中于国际产业链的低端,加入WTO并没有真正改变中国电子及通讯设备制造业的国际分工地位。     

Productivity,Structural Change and Latin American Development

We calibrate a simple neoclassical growth model adapted to illustrate a process of structural transformation or industrialization to a group of nine South American countries. The paper shows that low levels of agricultural productivity can substantially delay the process of industrialization, which, together with low levels of non‐agricultural productivity observed in recent decades, satisfactorily explains the significant differences in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita levels among the countries in our sample. The results suggest that Argentina underwent the process of industrialization first followed by Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Bolivia. The model predicts that the ranking of these countries in terms of GDP per capita would follow this order until convergence occurs. The empirical evidence confirms the prediction of the model with the exceptions of Uruguay and Chile which caught up with Argentina in terms of GDP per capita levels in the late 1980s.     

我国地区产业结构转换力及其结构效益分析

建立产业结构转换力模型 ,研究了我国地区产业结构转换力的地区分布。借助产业结构偏离度 ,分析了产业结构效益的地区分布差异。利用相关分析和回归分析方法揭示了产业结构转换力、结构效益与地区经济发展水平之间的相互关系。其结果显示我国地区产业结构转换力和产业结构效益的地带性差异十分明显 ,并且和地区经济发展水平高度相关。而产业结构转换力与产业结构效益、产业结构效益与经济发展水平之间线性关系不强 ,但总体上 ,它们都有着近似的地带性分布规律。     

Trade Openness,Structural Change and Total Factor Productivity

The impact of trade openness on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is investigated. Given the differences in tradability of goods across sectors as well as the ongoing structural change, we examine whether trade openness has had a differential impact on TFP growth of the three main sectors of an economy. While the positive impact of openness on TFP growth for the aggregate economy is confirmed, openness has had no appreciable impact on the growth of TFP in the agricultural and industrial sectors. We find that the positive effect of openness on TFP growth for the economy as a whole was mostly due to the positive relationship between the two variables for the services sector. Further, we conclude that the lack of a general consensus in past studies could be due to their neglect of structural change and temporal factors when analyzing the trade-TFP nexus.     

Protection and Structural Change form a Contestable Market Perspective

Because they are so well and so flexibly insulated from private competition, highly protected Australian producers in the public sector are resistant to the forces of structural change. The degree of protection is difficult to rationalise as an attempt to ensure that known technology is used efficiently, although it is possible that the threat of entry could, in some circumstances, produce a multifirm industry when a single producer would be cheaper. To set against this undesirable contingency are the possible normative benefits of freedom of entry (in keeping monopolists hones) as well as the positive power of vested interests.     

保险发展、储蓄结构变化与经济增长

在一个世代交叠的内生经济增长框架内分析了财产险和人身险促进经济增长的机制.研究发现,保险中介在跨时平滑行为主体面临的生产率风险和疾病风险冲击的同时,减少了行为人的流动性资产持有,提高了行为人的非流动性资产投资.在行为人的储蓄由流动性资产和非流动性资产构成的情况下,保险发展产生储蓄结构效应,而储蓄结构效应导致的非流动性资产投资的相对增加促进了资本和知识的积累,进而形成内生经济增长.基于中国数据的实证检验支持了这一机制.