Occupational Upgrading and Changes In Capital Usage In U.S. Manufacturing Industries, 1989–98

Proposed explanations of the role of microprocessor technology in the shifts toward relatively highly skilled workers that have occurred within industries since the mid 1970s have implications for the types of occupations that should be most affected by computerization. In this study, I measure the effects of changes in capital usage, and of the level of high-tech capital usage in particular, on skill change caused by employment shifts among detailed occupations within industries over the 1989–98 period. The study utilizes data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which produces data on employment and wages for over 700 occupations in non-farm establishments, by industry. These data provide an unprecedented opportunity to determine the types of occupations and skills that are most affected by changes in capital and technology usage, by making it possible to measure skill change within relatively narrowly defined occupational groups.     

Changing Skill Intensity in Australian Industry

This article examines changes in industry skill scores for Australia for the period 1991 to 2001 using indices of cognitive skill for industry based on Census employment data. Changes in mean industry cognitive skill levels are analysed, as are the relative contributions of changes to the occupational structure within industry and changes to the industry structure of employment. The main findings are that the drivers of skill change differed substantially between the two Census periods. Prior to 1996 the majority of the change was due to shifts towards industries with a more highly skilled workforce. After 1996 changes in the economy‐wide skill level were dominated by within‐industry changes in occupational composition. This coincided with a sharp pickup in the rate of capital expenditure on information and communication technologies. The increasing use of part‐time employment overall had a deskilling effect.     

OCCUPATIONAL PENSIONS, WAGES, AND JOB MOBILITY IN GERMANY

Pension‐covered workers in Germany are three times less likely to change jobs than workers not covered by an occupational pension scheme. This paper examines the effects of occupational pension coverage and pension portability loss on voluntary job changes using a sample selection model with endogenous switching. The model estimates, derived from western German panel data for 1985–1998, indicate that occupational pension coverage reduces worker mobility by imposing a capital loss on those leaving their job before retirement age. Moreover, pension‐covered workers receive a higher compensation, which discourages mobility. Making pensions portable increases mobility, but from a low initial level.     

How Much Does Annuity Demand React to a Large Price Change?

In this paper, we present new evidence for the effect of changes in annuity prices on the decision to annuitize. We exploit an unprecedented change in policy in several Swiss occupational pension plans. There is an implied 8 percent reduction in the rate at which retirement capital is translated into an annuity, and this represents a net present value loss of CHF 18,500 (around US$ 20,000). To estimate the impact of this change, we use data from companies that changed their prices and from one large company that did not. We find that the price change reduces the propensity to annuitize among affected individuals by 16.8 percentage points.     

Is technological change biased towards the unskilled in services? An empirical investigation

I fit a two-sector general equilibrium model to U.S. data in 1963–2005 in order to infer technological processes that affect the college premium. In skill intensive services factor augmenting technological change is slower for college graduates relative to less skilled workers. I find the opposite in the rest of the economy. This indicates that technological change is more complex than what we observe at the aggregate level. The results are consistent with changes in occupational mixes: low-skill workers in services reallocate into computer complementary occupations to a greater extent than college graduates in that sector. Occupational mixes in the rest of the private sector shift in the opposite direction. Thus, theoretical treatments of the underlying mechanisms of skill biased technological change may be improved by taking into account occupational mixes within broad education-sector groups.     

Cultural Political Economy: Logics of Discovery,Epistemic Fallacies,the Complexity of Emergence,and the Potential of the Cultural Turn

As a result of a long-running internal debate there have been notable incremental changes to how the International Monetary Fund (IMF) treats capital controls, particularly those directed at inflows. These changes combine new acceptance of these policy instruments with an older emphasis on their negative consequences and on the desirability of free movement of capital. Policy change of this sort is puzzling from the standpoint of the existing literature on international organisations (IOs), which has thus far paid little attention to transformative incremental change associated with long-term contestation. This article departs from this tendency by drawing on insights from principal–agent theory, constructivism and historical institutionalism to identify the conditions under which such change may originate. I argue that actors within IOs are likely to pursue incremental change by layering new policies on to old ones as a way to build coalitions and to respond to external organisational insecurity imperatives and diverse member state preferences and to internal path-dependent organisational cultural features. Over time the incremental shifts brought by layering can induce transformative rather than reproductive change because they fit with consequentialist and appropriateness behavioural logics. I illustrate this argument by investigating recent changes in IMF policy on capital controls.     

Changes in women's hours of market work: The role of returns to experience

Over the past several decades, married women's hours of market work increased significantly in the US. I argue that changes in behavior by married women with children account for much of this change. In particular, the pattern of married women's work hours has changed substantially over the life cycle. In the past, married women in childbearing age tended to specialize in childrearing and home production activities at the expense of engaging in market work. Now they do not curb the hours they work in the market.What factors contribute to this change in behavior? In this paper, I focus on relative changes in returns to experience as an explanation. I use PSID data for the 1970s and the 1990s to estimate the extent to which relative returns to experience have changed. I then use a life-cycle model with human capital accumulation and home production to quantitatively assess the consequences of this increase for married women's hours of work over the life cycle.The estimates of the human capital production function show that women's marginal returns to experience increased by 25% across decades, whereas men's increased by only 6%. I show that this relative change accounts for 96% of the observed variation in married women's hours of work. Moreover, according to the model, the increase in returns to experience accounts for roughly half of the increase in the female/male wage ratio that is found in the data. I also show that a decline in the gender wage gap, holding returns to experience constant, accounts for only 18% of the total increase in hours of work. As a consequence, it cannot explain the change in the shape of women's life-cycle profiles. Although the focus of the analysis is the labor supply behavior of women, the model also allows predictions about the behavior of men and single women. These predictions are consistent with the data.     

Changes in Occupational Tasks and Their Association with Individual Wages and Occupational Mobility

This study provides novel evidence on the relevance of task content changes between and within occupations to wage dynamics of occupational changers and stayers. I use individual‐level, cross‐sectional data featuring tasks performed on the job to compute a measure of proximity of job contents. Then, I merge this measure to a large‐scale panel survey to show that occupational changers experience a wage growth that is declining when the accompanying alterations in task contents are big. For occupational stayers, alterations in task contents generate a positive wage component, beyond tenure effect. However, the results are not robust with respect to the choice of proximity measure and over time.     

Tax collection,the informal sector,and productivity

An important determinant of informality in a country is its tax enforcement capacity, which some authors argue further distorts the decisions of firms and creates inefficiency. In this paper, I assess the quantitative effect of incomplete tax enforcement on aggregate output and productivity using a dynamic general equilibrium framework. I calibrate the model using data for Mexico, where the informal sector is large. I then investigate the effects of improving enforcement. I find that under complete enforcement, Mexico's labor productivity and output would be 19% higher under perfect competition and 34% higher under monopolistic competition. The source of this gain is the removal of the distortions induced by incomplete enforcement of taxes. These distortions affect the economy in three ways: by reducing the capital–labor ratios of informal establishments; by allowing low-productive entrepreneurs to enter; and by misallocating resources towards low-productive establishments. As a result, TFP and capital accumulation are reduced, and hence output. I decompose the gains following the guidelines of five leading papers in the literature of resource misallocation across plants. I isolate the effects of pure factor misallocation, distorted occupational choices, capital accumulation, and complementarities. I also study marginal improvements in enforcement and find that there is an inverted-U relationship between the size of the informal sector and output. This reflects the fact that improving enforcement entails a tradeoff: more taxes vs. fewer distortions.     

Financial Intermediation and Occupational Choice in Development

This paper presents evidence that the spread between the marginal product of capital and the return on financial assets is much higher in poor than in rich countries. A model with costly intermediation is developed. In this economy, individuals choose at each instant whether to work or to operate a technology. Entrepreneurs finance their business with their own savings and, if necessary, by borrowing from banks. I find that in this framework intermediation costs are not equivalent to a tax on the return of capital. The equivalence fails because costly intermediation affects not only the capital accumulation decision but also the occupational choice decision. I show that intermediation costs have important effects on per capita output and average business size in the economy. I conclude that taxing financial intermediaries can be a very bad policy for development. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E20, E60, O11, O16.     

Is Embodied Technology the Result of Upstream R&D? Industry-Level Evidence

This paper provides an exploratory analysis of whether data on the research and development (R&D) spending directed at particular technological/product fields can be used to measure industry-level capital-embodied technological change. Evidence from the patent literature suggests that the R&D directed at a product, as the main input into the “innovation” production function, is proportional to the value of the innovations in that product. I confirm this hypothesis by showing that the decline in the relative price of a good is positively correlated with the R&D directed at that product. The hypothesis implies that the technological change, or innovation, embodied in an industry's capital is proportional to the R&D that is done (“upstream”) by the economy as a whole on each of the capital goods that a (“downstream”) industry purchases. Using R&D data from the National Science Foundation, I construct measures of capital-embodied R&D. I find they have a strong effect on conventionally measured total-factor productivity growth, a phenomenon that seems to be due partly to the mismeasurement of quality change in the capital stock and partly to a positive correlation between embodied and disembodied technological change. Finally, I find the cross-industry variation in empirical estimates of embodied technological change accord with the cross-industry variation in embodied R&D. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: O3.     

Job Changes,Occupational Mobility and Human Capital Acquisition: an Empirical Analysis

Most individuals have more than one job or occupation in their working lives. Most employees are repeatedly faced with the choice of whether to remain in their present job (with the possibility of promotion), or quit to another job in the same occupation with a different firm, or – more radically – change occupation. At each stage in an individual's career, the scope for future job or occupational mobility is largely conditioned by the type and quantity of their human capital. This paper presents an empirical study of the factors which link occupational mobility and the acquisition of either firm-based, occupation-specific or general human capital. The data employed are from a cohort of 1980 UK graduates drawn from the Department of Employment Survey 1987. The econometric work presents estimates of the role of firm-based training and occupation-specific training in the career mobility of qualified manpower in the first seven years in the labour market.     

1985—2010年间中国制造业要素 配置扭曲变动的解析 ——资本结构变动与技术进步的影响分析

本文对1985—2010年间中国制造业部门的要素配置扭曲系数的变动进行了解析。要素配置扭曲系数的变动一方面是由于不同行业间投资结构失衡所引致，但是另一方面则反映了不同行业间不同类型技术进步差异对要素报酬率变动的影响效应。笔者发现：（1）近十多年来，部分重化工业的资本快速扩张引起行业间投资结构失衡，并加大了行业间的要素配置扭曲程度；（2）相对于1985—2000年间，技术进步因素在2001—2010年间对要素配置扭曲系数的变动的影响效应越来越大。本文建议政府在制定产业政策时，限制一般生产性的资本投资鼓励政策，而更多转向鼓励创新和研发投资的政策，鼓励体现有技术进步因素的资本要素与劳动要素之间的相互替代。     

Occupational Attainment and Immigrant Economic Progress in Australia*

Using data from the 2001 Australian Census of Population and Housing, on adult men in full‐time employment, this paper augments a conventional human capital earnings function with information on occupations. It also estimates models of occupational attainment. The results from both the earnings function and model of occupational attainment indicate that the limited international transferability of human capital skills results in immigrants entering into relatively low status occupations when they first enter the Australian labour market. Comparison with similar research for the USA suggests that the different immigrant selection regimes (primarily family reunion in the USA, skill‐based immigration in Australia) do not impact on the negative association between current occupational status and pre‐immigration labour market experience.     

The impact of job mobility on earnings: using occupational and industrial classifications to identify job changes

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median number of years that a US worker has been with their current employer is 4.4 years. Although many job changes may not be classified as ‘career changes,’ any type of job change may have an impact on a person’s future earnings. In the present study, the following three types of job changes are examined in order to determine which ones result in higher incomes: a change in occupational status; a change in industry; or a change in both. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), a log-linear wage regression with a correction for self-selection is estimated. Results suggest that changing jobs within the same industry or within the same occupation both increase a person’s income. However, a job change that is characterized by both a change in industry and occupation reduces a person’s income. The present study is one of the few studies to examine the effects of job mobility on earnings when mobility is defined in the context of changes in occupational and/or industrial classification.     

The Effect of Capital Gains Taxation on Home Sales: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97) significantly changed the tax treatment of housing capital gains in the United States. Before 1997, homeowners were subject to capital gains taxation when they sold their houses unless they purchased replacement homes of equal or greater value. Since 1997, homeowners can exclude capital gains of $500,000 (or $250,000 for single filers) when they sell their houses. Such dramatic changes provide a good opportunity to study the lock-in effect of capital gains taxation on home sales. Using 1982-2008 transaction data on single-family houses in 16 affluent towns within the Boston metropolitan area, I find that TRA97 reversed the lock-in effect of capital gains taxes on houses with low and moderate capital gains. Specifically, the semiannual sales rate of houses with positive gains up to $500,000 increased by 0.40-0.62 percentage points after TRA97, representing a 19-24 percent increase from the pre-TRA97 baseline sales rate. In contrast, I do not find TRA97 to have a significant effect on houses with gains above $500,000. Moreover, the short-term effect of TRA97 is much larger than the long-term effect, suggesting that many previously locked-in homeowners took advantage of the exclusions immediately after TRA97. In addition, I exploit the 2001 and 2003 legislative changes in the capital gains tax rate to estimate the tax elasticity of home sales during the post-TRA97 period. The estimation results suggest that a $10,000 increase in capital gains taxes reduces the semiannual home sales rate by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points, or 6-13 percent from the post-TRA97 average sales rate.     

Occupational mobility and the returns to training

The literature on the returns to training has pointed out that, immediately following a training episode, wages of participants in employer-sponsored training increase substantially while wages of participants in government-sponsored training hardly change. We argue that there is a potential selection issue—most of the government-sponsored trainees are occupation switchers while most participants in employer-sponsored training are occupation stayers. An occupational switch involves a substantial destruction of human capital, and once we account for the associated decline in wages, we find a large positive impact of both employer- and government-sponsored training on workers’ human capital.     

An assessment of the impact of EU funds through productivity boosts using CES functions

The economic effects of European Funds on recipient countries are not without controversy. We propose to study this issue focusing on the productivity coefficients of CES production functions in a multisectoral, interdependent general equilibrium model. We adopt the calibration techniques typically used in computational general equilibrium modelling to estimate a numerical improvement in the productivity coefficients of the CES functions. The array of different funds belongs to two broad categories associated with the two types of primary factors, labour and capital, that determine the output. Once we estimate the change in productivity coefficients in labour and in capital, we introduce them into a computable general equilibrium model and simulate their effects, all else being equal, in order to quantify their likely economy-wide effects.     

Occupational Segregation and the (Mis)allocation of Talent

In this paper, I study how occupational segregation affects the allocation of talent in a competitive labour market. I propose a model of occupational choice in which heterogeneous workers must rely on their social contacts to acquire job‐vacancy information. While occupational segregation implies benefits in terms of job‐finding probability, it also leads to allocative inefficiencies. Efficient and equilibrium outcomes differ due to a network externality that leads workers to segregate too little, and a pecuniary externality that leads workers to segregate too much. Which effect dominates depends on the elasticity of wages to changes in the degree of occupational segregation.     

Comparing approaches to valuing sectoral net investments

In the literature of comprehensive national accounts, national net investments are used to indicate dynamic welfare improvement in an economy. A well-known approach associates national net investments with the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets in an economy. Following this capital stock approach, sectoral net investments can be defined as the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets owned by a sector in an economy. An alternative approach is based on future commodity flows to a sector. This commodity flow approach associates sectoral net investments with the present value of changes in future commodity flows to a sector. In the present paper, I compare these two approaches and prove that they coincide with each other only if the future commodity flows to the sector can be attributed to current stock of capital assets in the sector alone. In empirical studies, commodity flow approach can be a better alternative if the purpose is to estimate the contributions to national net investments of a recipient of future cash flows.