Panel cointegration analysis of relationship between international trade and tourism: Case of Turkey and silk road countries

Tourism development has been examined from various aspects and studies examining relations between tourism and other sectors are increasing. This study tests the relationship between the incoming tourists and volumes of import and export of Turkey and 13 Silk Road countries, through Panel ARDL. The study is important since it is thought to be the first to check the relation between tourist flows and trade amongst the Silk Road countries. Findings point out that even though there are differences in short-term and long-term relations, tourist flows and international trade are related, which indicates that international trade is important for tourism development.     

大陆居民赴台湾自由行旅游流网络分析及演化研究

随着人们旅游消费能力逐渐增强,对旅游品质的要求越来越高,自由行已经成为人们主要出游方式之一。文章以大陆居民赴台湾自由行为对象,采用数据挖掘技术采集我国最大旅游分享社区网站2009年以来的台湾自由行行程信息,构建了细粒度的旅游流有向网络,并使用社会网络理论进行分析。研究表明,该网络属于无标度网络,网络规模为2656,但平均路径只有4.3,网络密度较低,节点的度分布满足幂律分布,网络核心区与边缘区互动较少。按照时间顺序构建旅游流网络,研究网络的演化并分析其演化动力,发现网络规模、连接数量都与行程数量近似于比例增长,网络演化过程中新增加的节点优先链接网络中的明星节点。文章首次从网络演化的角度使用社会网络理论研究旅游流,丰富和拓展了旅游流研究内容。     

The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows

Notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows, hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect. Drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. The study employs a system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. The results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals.     

A comparative analysis of international tourists’ satisfaction in Mongolia

The purpose of this study was to examine international tourism development in Mongolia in the last decade and analyze international tourists’ satisfaction of their travel experience with tourist attractions, facilities, services and prices. This study identified the demographic characteristics of international tourists from four regions: Europe, the US, Japan and other Asia/Pacific countries by surveying a sample of 530 visitors by air travel. Satisfaction level of international tourists from these four different regions were analyzed and compared to find regional similarities and differences. Recommendations were made for the Mongolian tourism authority to target efficiently its international tourism markets and improve tourism services in Mongolia.     

Characterizing destination networks through mobility traces of international tourists — A case study using a nationwide mobile positioning dataset

This article demonstrates how large-scale tourist mobility data can be linked with network science approaches to better understand tourism destinations and their interactions. By analyzing a mobile positioning dataset that captures the nationality and movement patterns of foreign tourists to South Korea, we employ a few metrics to quantify the network properties of tourism destinations, aiming to reveal the collective dynamics of tourist movements and key differences across nationalities. According to the results, the number of inbound tourists to destinations follows a log-normal distribution, which indicates a notable heterogeneity of destination attractiveness. Although this finding holds across different nationalities, we find that tourists from different countries tended to visit different places in South Korea. A community detection algorithm partitions South Korea into several tourism regions, each covering a set of destinations that are closely connected by tourist flows. The implications for transportation development and regional tourism planning are discussed.     

Modelling Australian domestic and international inbound travel: a spatial–temporal approach

In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant temporal and spatial dynamics have been uncovered for both domestic and international tourism demand. For example we find strong seasonal temporal autocorrelations, significant trends and significant spatial autocorrelations at both the origin and the destination. Moreover, the spatial patterns are found to be most significant during peak holiday seasons. Understanding these patterns in tourist behaviour has important implications for tourism operators.     

京沪高铁对主要站点旅游流时空分布影响

交通是影响旅游流时空分布的最主要因素之一。文章以京沪高铁线为例,运用旅游场理论和社会网络分析方法,比较京沪高铁开通前后9个主要高铁站点的旅游流时空分布变化特征。研究表明:高铁开通强化了北京、上海和南京等重要旅游客源地和目的地的领先地位,呈现出高铁旅游流的"马太效应";高铁促使靠近重要旅游目的地的竞争处于劣势的旅游地旅游流呈现"过道效应";高铁促使空间距离临近的两个城市的旅游流呈现"同城效应";高铁提升原本缺乏区位优势的旅游资源型站点的可进入性,同时对区域核心城市的交通依赖程度明显下降;高铁的时空压缩效应缩短旅途时间,可实现小长假的远程旅游,双休日的中程旅游,一定程度上避免了中远程旅游对黄金周的依赖,从而缓解出游时间的集中性,提高了旅游质量。     

SURE Estimation of Tourism Demand System Model:

The purpose of this study is to build a tourism demand system model which incorporates inbound, outbound and domestic tourism of the U.S. The study utilizes the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) technique to investigate the international tourist flow between the U.S. and Canada, Japan, Mexico, United Kingdom, and inland European countries. Relevant marketing and policy implications for income and price elasticities are discussed.     

Institutional quality,political risk and tourism

This paper applies the gravity model to investigate the impacts of institutional quality coupled with political risks, distance, and socio-economic factors on tourist flow. We find that institutional quality and absence of conflict are driving factors in fostering tourism flows for both source and destination countries. Our findings suggest that institutional reform can help boost the economies of countries with low-quality institutions. While institutional change is a positive development in its own right, our results suggest that it can also have important additional economic benefits for countries that are highly dependent on tourism.     

Flight availability and international tourism flows

This paper analyzes the effect of flight supply on international tourism flows between 20 Italian regions and 24 European countries, observed half-yearly from 1999 to 2010. We find that low-cost carriers have a prominent role in attracting international tourism flows. Our estimates suggest that an additional round-trip flight operated by a low-cost carrier generates about 74 arrivals and 248 overnight stays in hotels or similar facilities; in the case of a full-service carrier these figures decrease to 29 and 97, respectively. These findings are relevant for the current debate on the drivers of tourism development.     

AIRPORT RUNWAY SLOTS: Limits to Growth

The United States–European Union market accounts for approximately 25% of all international tourist arrivals worldwide, and is arguably the busiest market in the world. This paper argues that landing slot policy and the manner in which airport capacity is allocated among airlines across the north Atlantic is likely to underpin the future geographic structure of the tourism industry. By analyzing the historical evolution of slot policy, this paper attempts to enhance the extant literature on how government authorities allocate scarce airport resources. The paper concludes by arguing that various slot reform proposals need to be adopted to make airports more “elastic” when managing origin-destination tourist flows.     

旅华外国散客旅游流地理分布和网络结构研究

散客旅游是全球主流旅游方式,入境散客市场在中国入境旅游市场中也占据重要地位。文章主要采用问卷法采集数据,研究样本总量1451份,运用地图分析法研究旅华外国散客旅游流的分布和扩散规律,运用社会网络分析法研究旅华外国散客旅游流网络结构特征。研究发现:散客以北京、广州和上海为主要出入境口岸,以香港为辅助口岸,旅游线路以单目的地、短线为主,平均到访目的地数量较少;北京和广州是单目的地散客的主要旅游目的地;多点散客旅游流集中分布在中国人口线东南部,以"北京—西安"之间的流量最大,并形成了长三角、珠三角、川滇3个区域性集中分布区;散客旅游流网络规模较大,但网络密度较低,整体结构松散,发育程度较差;网络具有小世界特性;网络中的节点可以划分成综合性节点、枢纽节点、重要节点和一般节点4种角色类型。文章首次从宏观联系的视角对旅华外国散客旅游流进行了整体研究,丰富和拓展了中国入境旅游流研究内容。     

人格特质理论视角下东南亚国家对中国旅游形象感知差异研究

国家旅游目的地性格是影响国家旅游形象和国际游客旅游决策的关键因素,对入境旅游市场营销具有指导意义。本文运用内容分析法、扎根理论研究法,对东南亚3个国家的中文主播网络视频、在华留学生及其亲属的访谈内容进行分析,以探究东南亚国家人们对中国旅游目的地性格维度感知强度和差异。研究表明：根据感知强度大小,东南亚国家对中国旅游目的地性格维度感知依次是能力、真诚、魅力、友善和侠义。东南亚国家对中国旅游目的地性格维度感知存在国别差异,其中,越南人和缅甸人的感知总体呈正面,感知维度分别是“友善”“魅力”和“侠义”“斯文”;老挝人感知相对负面,感知维度为“随性”“自我”。据此建议中国加强与东南亚国家的文化交流,区别不同国家人们的感知特点,进一步强化正面性格感知,调整和优化针对负面性格感知的宣传策略。     

Identifying a destination’s optimal tourist market mix: Does a superior portfolio model exist?

Extant tourism research has used various portfolio model types to determine optimal tourist market mixes which simultaneously maximize total tourist expenditure and minimise the instability of international inbound tourism demand. We analyse the three portfolio models that have been applied in the tourism literature: two varieties of a levels model (that use the level of tourist arrivals, or bed nights to quantify tourist activity) and a growth rates model (that deploys the growth in the level of tourist activity). Applying these models using per capita expenditure in four distinctively different destination countries (Australia, Greece, Japan, and USA), we demonstrate that the Levels Model 1 is superior to the Levels Model 2 and the Growth Rates Model. It produces solutions that provide noticeably higher tourist expenditure with less instability of international tourism demand than the status quo. Theoretical contributions and practical implications for tourism policy makers and destination marketers are discussed.     

云南省团队游空间结构及其聚散效应研究

在旅游业高质量快速发展的背景下,全面厘清与掌握省域尺度范围各旅游节点在网络中的角色和地位,并解析其网络结构效应具有重大意义。针对现有研究因旅游流数据采集限制而较少对团队游空间结构研究的不足,基于云南省旅游包车客运信息,运用社会网络结合空间分析的方法,提取了云南省团队游网络空间结构特征,并对其聚散效应进行分析。结果表明:云南省团队游整体网络密度较小且淡旺季表现出相似特征,网络对各节点的旅游联系与合作影响尚未显现,暴露出云南省团队游旅游市场发展的不均衡;团队游网络外向中心势显著高于内向中心势,网络空间集聚趋势明显;通常具有较强外向中心性的旅游节点同时也具有较强内向中心性,表现出“集中—发散”的聚散规律;旅游节点的聚散效应表现为单个节点以圈层状向外递减形式发生,其扩散路径主要集中于文山—蒙自、景洪—思茅方向。整体上,云南省区域旅游业发展差异明显,应重点加强滇西南与滇西旅游区、滇中与滇东北旅游区的旅游资源开发与合作。     

旅游流空间数据获取的基本方法分析——国内外研究综述及比较

有效、准确的旅游流数据获取是决定旅游流研究科学性的关键问题之一.文章通过对国内外旅游流相关研究中的旅游流空间数据获取方法的梳理,认为旅游流数据获取的基本方法有观察法、旅游者时空账户、现代追踪技术、二手面板数据和其他途径等5种,通过成本、效率、可操作性、拓展性和准确性等方面对5种方法进行了比较和述评,并对比国内外相关研究的差距与不同.文章指出,目前国内旅游流研究仍存在数据获取方法单一、现代技术应用不足、重视程度不够等问题,尚未实现与国际研究的全面接轨.文章旨在能够引起旅游管理部门和研究者对旅游流数据获取的重视,以科学、有效的途径收集准确、适用的数据,提高旅游流研究的科学性和对旅游业发展实践的指导意义.     

Safety,security and peace tourism: The case of the DMZ area

It comes as no surprise that peace and tourism is an important topic today in tourism literature. Despite the strength of global tourist demand, many destinations, especially in the developing world, are facing fluctuations in tourist arrivals, due to unsafe political conditions. This study discusses the symbiosis between tourism and peace and its opposite, war, and the likely impacts of each condition on several tourist destinations. A turbulent security environment, caused by international and civil wars, coup d'etat and terrorist attacks has already demonstrated its negative impact on tourism development in many countries around the world (Taylor & Quayle, 1994). The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between safety, tranquility, peace, and successful tourism, using surveys completed by both international and domestic tourists. More specifically, it is about the effects of the absence of safety, security and peace on domestic and international tourism in the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) area. The general findings demonstrate that the subjects of the study view the implication of the existence of a peaceful environment on tourism favourably.     

Tourists’ digital footprint: The spatial patterns of tourist flows in Qingdao,China

Spatial patterns of tourist flows represent the movement of tourists and show differences in tourism resources giving advice for promoting balanced and sustainable tourism development. This paper proposes a novel framework for analyzing these patterns based on tourists' digital footprint data collected from online travel diaries. Based on illustrative case study data from Qingdao (China), the framework, combining traditional quantitative and social network analysis, is able to pinpoint: (1) The influence of distance decay and attractions’ popularity on the spatial patterns of tourist flows; (2) The uneven distribution of the core tourist nodes and the existence of the structural hole phenomenon, which form a network pattern with unbalanced power and intense internal competition; (3) The formation of the core area for tourism along the coastline – as is typical for coastal tourism cities. This difference of tourism resources between coastal and inland areas, thus, remains a challenge for future tourism development in Qingdao.     

Influence of the High-Speed Rail on the Spatial Pattern of Regional Tourism – Taken Beijing–Shanghai High-Speed Rail of China as Example

This paper compares volumes, flows, and spatial patterns of traffic before and after the opening of the high-speed rail (HSR) link between Beijing and Shanghai. Evidence emerges of a significant change in the shape of isochrones within the region. Under the influence, the temporal and spatial distance between the source region and tourist destination is greatly reduced. Equally, multiple contact modes are more apparent and the overall structure of tourism flow network is closer after the opening of the HSR service. As can be seen from the above, the HSR has a significant impact on regional tourism traffic accessibility and then has a significant on the temporal and spatial distribution of regional tourism resource. The tourism flow will respond positively to the “space compression” effect.