Do shocks have permanent or transitory effects on tourist inflow? An application of stationarity test with structural breaks: evidence reexamined for Gilgit-Baltistan,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

Do shocks affect tourist inflows permanently or temporarily? To examine this question, we consider a region in Northern Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, known for its natural and scenic beauty and with a history of huge tourist inflows, both domestic and international. The tourist arrivals from significant source markets are investigated using univariate and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with two structural breaks to examine if shocks to the time path of visitors’ inflow are permanent or transitory. According to the results, the univariate and LM unit root test with two breaks reject the unit root null for all major source markets. The findings suggest transistory effects rather than permanent effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Gilgit-Baltistan. This result further predicts the sustainability of the tourism sector in the region in the long run.     

An empirical study of inbound tourism demand in China: a copula-GARCH approach

This paper proposes new models for analyzing the volatility and dependence of monthly tourist arrivals to China applying a copula-GARCH approach. A desegregation of the top six origins of China inbound tourists from the period January 1994 to December 2013 is used in this study. The empirical results show that there is a strong seasonal effect in all cases and ?????? some habit persistence on monthly tourist arrival growth rate for South Korea, Russia, the United States (US), and Malaysia. Second, the volatilities of arrival growth rates to China are impacted significantly by their own short- and long-run effects, except for Russia and South Korea. Only short-run shock affects Russian arrivals while only long-run shocks are affecting South Korea arrivals. Third, the conditional dependence among different source countries is found to be positive and significant, but the conditional dependence for all considered pairs is low. Moreover, there is extreme co-movement (tail dependence) between the six major tourism source countries, suggesting the pairwise of international tourist arrivals shows a related increasing or decreasing pattern during extreme events. Implications are discussed and recommendations provided.     

The classification of heritage tourists: a case of Hue City,Vietnam

Heritage, especially with World Heritage status, is increasingly becoming the main attraction of many tourist destinations. Heritage tourism is also the major tourism product in Hue city, Vietnam. Hitherto, there are almost no official statistics and research pertaining to heritage tourism as well as heritage tourists in Hue. This study aims at providing a preliminary profile of heritage tourists to Hue city and identifying different categories of heritage tourists, with a special focus on package tourists. The international heritage tourists' profile seems to be similar to official statistics of international arrivals, indicating almost no difference in socio-demographic profile between heritage tourists and general tourists in the context of Hue. Various significant differences were found between international and domestic tourists in terms of tourist characteristics, trip profile and the perception of Hue. Adopting McKercher's [(2002) Towards a classification of cultural tourists. International Journal of Tourism Research, 4, 29–38] cultural tourist classification, five categories of heritage tourists were identified, including purposeful heritage tourists, sightseeing heritage tourists, casual heritage tourists, incidental heritage tourists and serendipitous heritage tourists. Among these, sightseeing heritage tourists and purposeful heritage tourists were dominant.     

What determines international tourist arrivals in India?

Using data for 18 major tourist originating countries to India from 2001 to 2015, this study examines the major determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. The results indicate that past experiences of the tourists, per capita income in the tourist originating country, relative costs of living between India and the country of origin, and the level of infrastructure development in India are key determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. Furthermore, both transportation and communication infrastructure are important in attracting tourists to India. In particular, evidence suggests that availability of road and air network and telephone connections has favourable impacts on international tourist arrivals in India. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables. These results have important policy implications.     

The synergistic effect of natural disaster frequency and severity on inbound tourist flows from the annual perspective

The impacts of natural disasters on inbound tourism have recently received growing attention due to the increased frequency of natural disasters. Previous literature has reached different conclusions on the effects of disaster severity and frequency, and few studies have considered both the severity and frequency of natural disasters in the same statistical model. The synergistic effect of these two attributes of natural disasters is unrevealed herein. To enhance the current knowledge, this paper assesses the impacts of both the severity and frequency of natural disasters on the inbound tourist flows of destination countries from an annual perspective. We integrate 258,401 bilateral tourist movements and 9892 natural disasters in 177 countries between 1995 and 2018 and analyze the data using a panel regression. The results show that disaster severity deters tourists from visiting destinations, but disaster frequency indicates a positive effect. We also identify the positive moderating effect of disaster frequency.     

The internet and tourism‐part IV: TravelWeb

Abstract

The sporadic domestic political instability during the last decade, compounded with the ongoing international war on terrorism in Afghanistan and beyond, has created a substantial decline in tourist visits to Nepal. Safety and security are important aspects of travel destination choice and the perceived risk within Nepal and the South Asian region has mired the pace of international tourist arrivals. The objectives of this paper were to examine the state of tourism in Nepal and the negative repercussions of the political instability and international conflict that has thwarted the potential for growth.     

Tourism product development and the changing consumer demand: A case study of Kenya

Kenya is an important tourist destination in Africa accounting for over 6% of the total international tourist arrivals to the continent. However, in recent years Kenya's tourism industry has been experiencing problems of poor performance and continuing decline in the number of international tourist arrivals. This study examines the main characteristics of the country's tourism product vis‐a‐vis the changing trends in global tourism market demands. It is argued that the underlying cause of the recent poor performance of the tourism industry relates to the nature of the country's tourism product. Over the years, Kenya has been offering a limited tourism product that is based on beach and wildlife tourism. Also, the marketing of Kenya mainly depends on overseas tour operators who mainly sell inclusive tour packages. Thus, the form of tourism product that is offered by Kenya has not responded to the recent changes and trends in international tourism market demands. Post‐modern tourists, particularly tourists from developed countries, are increasing becoming aware of the negative impacts of mass tourism and are increasingly looking for alternative tourism products that provide a deeper and more meaningful experience. Thus, if Kenya is to rejuvenate its tourism industry there is need for the country to provide a diverse alternative tourism product which is more appealing to the post‐modern tourists.     

The Impact of Sports Events on Inbound Tourism in New Zealand

Sports events are an instrument of destination marketing for host countries. Over the past 40 years, New Zealand has held sports events such as the Commonwealth Games and the America's Cup and many international tourists have visited New Zealand during these events. While past studies have examined the economic value of such tourism at a generic level, the impact of mega sports events at more specific levels is unknown. Thus, this study examines not only the impact of eight mega sports events upon New Zealand's international tourist arrivals over the 1983–2005 period at the overall level, but also the number of tourist arrivals from participating countries for each event. Results suggest that the 1990 Commonwealth Games, the 2000 America's Cup (yachting) and the 2005 British and Irish Lions Tour (rugby) had a significant impact on tourist arrivals overall and on arrivals from each participating country.     

Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.     

Is UNESCO recognition effective in fostering tourism? A comment on Yang,Lin and Han: Reply

This note replies Cellini's comment on the real effect of WHL in inducing more tourist arrivals in Yang, Lin and Han (2010, Tourism Management). Due to the time-invariant feature of the WHL number in the short-run, the fixed effect of panel data model seems to be inadequate on evaluating the impact of WHL on attracting international tourists. However, pooling estimates show that a region with more WHLs can attract more tourists.     

The effects of SARS on the Hong Kong tourism industry: An empirical evaluation

The objective of this study is to assess the temporal impact of SARS on the tourists' arrival in Hong Kong. An econometric strategy was carefully selected to determine the existence of unit roots in data series containing the number of tourist arrivals from 36 source countries between 1978 and 2001. The existence of unit roots can detect the stationary properties of the series. The analysis finds that data series of 24 countries contain unit roots and hence any form of exogenous shocks, like the SARS epidemic, can have permanent impact on the number of tourist arrivals. Included in this category are Japan, Taiwan, the US and the UK, which are the main source of tourists for Hong Kong. The paper recommends that authorities take source-country-specific measures to manage the negative effect of SARS.     

Safety,security and peace tourism: The case of the DMZ area

It comes as no surprise that peace and tourism is an important topic today in tourism literature. Despite the strength of global tourist demand, many destinations, especially in the developing world, are facing fluctuations in tourist arrivals, due to unsafe political conditions. This study discusses the symbiosis between tourism and peace and its opposite, war, and the likely impacts of each condition on several tourist destinations. A turbulent security environment, caused by international and civil wars, coup d'etat and terrorist attacks has already demonstrated its negative impact on tourism development in many countries around the world (Taylor & Quayle, 1994). The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between safety, tranquility, peace, and successful tourism, using surveys completed by both international and domestic tourists. More specifically, it is about the effects of the absence of safety, security and peace on domestic and international tourism in the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) area. The general findings demonstrate that the subjects of the study view the implication of the existence of a peaceful environment on tourism favourably.     

Sustainability Analysis of Ecotourism on Yao Noi Island,Thailand

International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's 10 major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain whether shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. Although the effects of shocks are not permanent, we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets has generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase.     

Are neighbour tourists more sensitive to crowding? The impact of distance on the crowding-out effect in tourism

The concept of the crowding-out effect has been employed in the tourism literature to analyse complex phenomena. However, there is limited insight into the crowding-out effect on tourists by tourists, and even less into the impact of distance on the crowding-out of tourists. This paper examines the relationship between crowding perceptions, tourists' attitudes toward crowding and the consequences of being crowded out. Results from a sample of 729 international tourists in Hong Kong suggest that there is a crowding-out effect on tourists by tourists, but this has only a marginal influence on the majority. The limited crowding-out effect is induced by tourists in general rather than by a single segment. The study also investigates the effect of distance on tourist crowding. The findings reveal a decaying effect of distance on tourists’ crowding perceptions, as neighbour tourists are more susceptible to tourist crowding than tourists from long-haul markets.     

Analysis of international tourist arrivals in China: The role of World Heritage Sites

This paper analyzes the determinants of international tourist arrivals in China, especially for World Heritage Sites and various kinds of travel spots. Utilizing annual provincial panel data over the 2000–2005 period, the empirical results suggest that key determinants include the relative income, population in the original country, cost of travel, and tourism infrastructure. In addition, World Heritage Sites are also found to be significant in explaining the numbers of international tourists and have a greater tourist-enhancing effect. Other famous tourist sites rated 4A- and 3A-class are also attractive to foreign tourism. Moreover, cultural rather than natural sites attract more interest among foreign tourists, because China is internationally renowned for its long-standing historical and cultural assets. Finally, the importance of the determinants of the demand for tourism varies from country to country.     

Evaluating impact of air pollution on China’s inbound tourism industry: a spatial econometric approach

Despite widespread concern about China’s air pollution crisis, very few studies have quantitatively explored its impact on China’s inbound tourism industry. From a spatial econometric perspective, this paper has quantified the direct, indirect and total effects of air pollution on international tourists visiting China, using panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during the period 2001–2013. The results confirm that air pollution has a significant direct negative effect on international tourists visiting China. There exists apparent spatial autocorrelation for provincial-level air pollution in China. Spatial Durbin model shows evidence that air pollution in the neighbouring provinces has a significant negative impact on international tourist arrivals in the local province. The spillover effect is even larger than the direct effect. When air pollution in the neighbouring provinces becomes serious, international tourists are unlikely to travel to the local province. The findings of this study have implications for local governments to strengthen inter-governmental environmental management to invigorate tourism market.     

The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study

This study explores the impact of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand in Malaysia using a dynamic panel data approach for 45 tourism source countries over the period 2005–2015. The results show that institutions play a very important role in explaining the behaviour of inbound tourism demand. To obtain a better picture, we investigate the response of international tourists to disaggregated institutional quality. We find that international tourists are more concerned about political stability, governmental effectiveness, regulations, laws, and corruption than voice and accountability. Therefore, policymakers should focus on ways to improve institutional quality to significantly increase international tourist arrivals.     

Travel Motivation,Destination Image and Visitor Satisfaction of International Tourists After the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: A Structural Modelling Approach

This study investigates the relationships between travel motivation, destination image and overall satisfaction of international tourists visiting Sichuan province after the great Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. Did the earthquake influence tourist’ motivations for visiting Sichuan either positively or negatively, and did the earthquake affect their image of the province as desirable travel destination? Survey data collected from 346 international tourists in Chengdu, the provincial capital, revealed that respondents were primarily motivated by Sichuan's traditional attractions – its scenery and the giant pandas native to the area rather than by the earthquake. Structural equation modelling revealed a statistically significant relationship between travel motivation and overall visitor satisfaction, as well as relationships between travel motivation and types of destination image. Furthermore, both positive and negative destination images seem to have an effect on overall satisfaction. This study implies that international tourists to Sichuan tend to visit for its scenery and wildlife; the 2008 earthquake has had little effect on their travel motivations and destination images; and these visitors hold positive images of the province.     

Terrorism,Seasonality, and International Air Tourist Arrivals in Central Florida

The Orlando International Airport (OIA) is growing in its importance in the regional tourism of Central Florida. This study provides some explanation for the fast growth of the OIA international passenger traffic by developing a multiple regression model. Five variables are identified as significantly related to the passenger arrivals at the OIA. The positive relationship between the economic performance of other industrialized countries and the OIA international arrivals is consistence with the hypothesis that income is positive determinant in travel decision. The increasing hijacking incidents in Europe and the Middle East is found to have a destination substitution effect between Orlando and European/Middle East. Hijacking may have encouraged Canadian and European tourist to switch from European/Middle East destinations to the United States in general, and to Orlando in particular. The composite tourism supply variable, represented by the number of Orlando hotel/model rooms, is found to be positively related to the OIA international arrivals. The two dummy variables of seasonality represent the natural component of the tourism supply of Orlando, its pleasant winter and early spring sunshine. The model indicates that this natural factor contributes significantly to the international passenger arrivals.     

Heritage complexity and tourism: the case of Lumbini,Nepal

Differences in values, interests, expectations and priorities among stakeholders, a major source of dissonance, may create conflict in heritage and can be a challenge for its preservation and management. This study uses Lumbini, Nepal, the birthplace of Lord Buddha, to examine heritage complexity and tourism. Lumbini, one of the most important Buddhist sites for the world's 500 million Buddhists, is surrounded by a population of different faiths, mainly Hindus and Muslims. Locals, who are predominantly non-Buddhist, see the local patrimony more as an economic resource than spiritual one, whereas the government uses the site for building national pride, garnering international support and promoting tourism. Furthermore, despite its potential for attracting Western, regional and domestic tourists and a growing trend in arrivals, the community and the region have not benefited well from tourism. Although Lumbini is currently experiencing “latent dissonance,” this can be reduced through communication, cooperation and collaboration among various stakeholders.