Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.     

Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Analysis

We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS; Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2010). Evidence is based on country VARs augmented by a regional common-factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange rates in the CIS countries, and international drivers such as global trade, share prices, and oil price. Global, regional, and idiosyncratic shocks are identified in a standard Cholesky fashion. Their relevance for exchange rates is explored by a decomposition of the variance of forecast errors. The impact of global shocks on the development of exchange rates has increased, particularly if financial shocks are considered. Because of the recent global financial crisis, regional shocks have become more important at the expense of global shocks.     

Stationarity and Cointegration in Systems with Real Estate and Financial Assets

This study examines the properties of wealth indices for investments in several asset classes (real estate, stocks, bonds, and Treasury bills), for several types of real estate (office, retail, research and development office, and warehouse), and by region (East, Midwest, South, and West). The series representing the value of investments in real estate and financial assets are not stationary; therefore, ordinary statistical procedures cannot be applied. Since many of the properties that are included in the real estate series have outside appraisals on an annual basis, especially in the fourth quarter, the real estate series may show seasonal influences. Hence, the appropriate test for cointegration is the Johansen's test, which is formulated in such a way as to allow for deterministic seasonality by the inclusion of seasonal dummy variables. The finding of cointegration implies that there is a long-run relationship between the series in the cointegrated system. When the CPI (or a proxy for inflation) is included in the three systems, the number of common factors increase to two, implying that inflation plays an important role in creating a linkage between these time series. These findings also have implications for developing portfolios comprising financial assets and real estate. The findings also have implications for developing a model to forecast real estate prices.     

Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology

The ability to predict corporate financial distress can be strengthened using models that account for serial correlation in the data, incorporate information from more than one period and include stationary explanatory variables. This paper develops a stationary financial distress model for AMEX and NYSE manufacturing and retailing firms based on the statistical methodology of time-series Cumulative Sums (CUSUM). The model has the ability to distinguish between changes in the financial variables of a firm that are the result of serial correlation and changes that are the result of permanent shifts in the mean structure of the variables due to financial distress. Tests performed show that the model is robust over time and outperforms similar models based on the popular statistical methods of Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logit.     

借汇丰银行经验提升银行业治理水平

党的十八届三中全会对全面深化改革作出总体部署，标志着我国改革开放事业进入了新的阶段。金融是现代经济的核心。深化金融改革、完善现代市场体系是发展社会主义市场经济的重要内容。当前，我国银行业发展内外部条件发生很大变化。银行业要顺势而为，借鉴国际先进银行经验，加快我国银行业治理改革进程，把握机遇，迎接挑战，破解制约发展的羁绊和难题，进一步释放和发展银行业生产力。     

The Role of Stock Size and Trading Intensity in the Magnitude of the "Interval Effect" in Beta Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Polish Capital Market

In this paper, we present empirical evidence about the "interval effect" in estimation of beta parameters for stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. We analyze models constructed for the returns calculated using intervals of different length—that is, 1, 5, 10, and 21 trading days (corresponding to, roughly, 1 day, 1 week, 2 weeks, and 1 month, respectively). In the cases in which heteroskedasticity was present, we estimated ARCH models. The results indicate that the estimates of betas for the same stock differ considerably when various return intervals are used. We further explore the source of differences in betas for every stock by investigating the relations between them and such factors as stock size and its trading intensity. The empirical results provide evidence that a statistically significant relationship exists between these two characteristics of stocks. This finding has important practical implications for beta estimation in practice.     

Linear predictability vs. bull and bear market models in strategic asset allocation decisions: evidence from UK data

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets through careful selection of predictor variables that capture business cycles and market sentiment. Yet, a distinct literature exists that shows that non-linear econometric frameworks, such as Markov switching, are also natural tools to compute optimal portfolios arising from the existence of good and bad market states. This paper examines whether and how simple VARs can produce portfolio rules similar to those obtained under a simple Markov switching, by studying the effects of expanding both the order of the VAR and the number/selection of predictor variables included. In a typical stock-bond strategic asset allocation problem for UK data, we compute the out-of-sample certainty equivalent returns for a wide range of VARs and compare these measures of performance with those of non-linear models. We conclude that most VARs cannot produce portfolio rules, hedging demands or (net of transaction costs) out-of-sample performances that approximate those obtained from simple non-linear frameworks.     

运用负所得税原理改进我国的低保制度

我国最低生活保障制度存在着多头管理、法制不全、范围过窄、效率低下、形式混乱等问题。为了解决这些问题,应该运用负所得税的效率与公平原则、法制原则、形式统一原则和动态监管原则等来改进我国的低保制度。负所得税形式的低保制度,应朝着税制化的方向发展,并分阶段实施。     

我国银行间同业拆放利率影响因素的实证分析

银行间同业拆放市场利率是我国主要的货币市场利率,也是最早实现市场化的利率.对商业银行来说,同业拆放利率是商业银行决定贷款利率与存款利率的重要标准.本文通过建立单整自回归平均移动模型ARIMA,研究一年期人民币银行贷款利率、一年期人民币储蓄存款利率、三年期凭证式国债利率、法定准备金年利率、回购利率、消费价格指数、综合股价指数、金融机构各项贷款与存款总额比值和人民币对美元汇率这些因素对我国银行间拆放利率的影响.研究结果表明:一年期人民币银行贷款利率和回购利率是影响我国银行间同业拆放利率的主要因素.     

Stock Market Returns and Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market: The Case of Korea

This paper investigates the feedback relationship between stock market returnsand economic fundamentals in an emerging market. Starting from an intertemporalconsumption-based CAPM (CCAPM), we obtain a restricted VAR model for stockreturns and macroeconomic variables. We then apply this model to Korea and findstatistically significant departures from the restrictions implied by CCAPM.Consequently, an unrestricted VAR model is used to analyze the variations of expectedand unexpected returns in the Korean stock market. It is shown that the expectedmarket returns vary with a set of macroeconomic variables, and that thepredictable component is substantial. Reflecting richer dynamics in the data,relative to the usual single equation modeling in the literature, the estimatedVAR model shows considerable predictive ability for both real economic activityand real returns. Using the model for a variance decomposition of unexpectedreturns, we find that, although we cannot directly observe the market's revisionof expected future dividend growth, we can estimate a large part of therevision with the news in the expected industry output growth from our VAR model.Finally, we also find that economic fundamentals can explain only a smallportion of the variation in unexpected returns in the Korean stock market.     

人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应:多结构变化协整回归分析

现有研究物价传递效应的文献以线性模型为主,甚少关注物价传递过程中可能存在的结构变化,本文在充分考虑我国转轨时期所面临的各种经济冲击的条件下,利用最新发展的多结构变化协整回归方法考察了1994年1月至2008年12月间人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应。研究结果表明,人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应分别在1998年8月、2002年10月、2005年8月及2007年7月发生了四次结构变化,传递效应虽总体趋减,但2007年7月后出现了反复,且符号也发生了改变。在上述结论基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

提高海南省农村居民消费水平的路径选择

近年来,我国经济实现快速增长,但是居民消费特别是农村居民消费增长缓慢,一定程度上约束我国经济内生性增长.本文以近几年海南省农村居民消费为调查对象,实证分析农村居民低消费现状与影响因素,提出改善欠发达地区农村居民低消费的路径.     

Insider trading in an equilibrium model with default: a passage from reduced-form to structural modelling

We study, in the framework of Back [Rev. Financial Stud. 5(3), 387–409 (1992)], an equilibrium model for the pricing of a defaultable zero coupon bond issued by a firm. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent, noise traders, and a market maker who sets the price using the total order. When the insider does not trade, the default time possesses a default intensity in the market’s view as in reduced-form credit risk models. However, we show that, in equilibrium, the modelling becomes structural in the sense that the default time becomes the first time that some continuous observation process falls below a certain barrier. Interestingly, the firm value is still not observable. We also establish the no expected trade theorem that the insider’s trades are inconspicuous.      

Contagion risk in the interbank market: a probabilistic approach to cope with incomplete structural information

One lesson of the financial crisis erupting in 2008 has been that domino effects constitute a serious threat to the stability of the financial sector, i.e. the failure of one node in the interbank network might entail the danger of contagion to large parts of the entire system. How important this effect is, depends on the exact topology of the network on which the supervisory authorities have typically very incomplete knowledge. In order to explore the extent of contagion effects and to analyse the effectiveness of macroprudential measures to contain such effects, a reconstruction of the quantitative features of the empirical network would be needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to such a reconstruction: we propose to combine some important known quantities (like the size of the banks) with a realistic stochastic representation of the remaining structural elements. Our approach allows us to evaluate relevant measures for the contagion risk after default of one unit (i.e. the number of expected subsequent defaults, or their probabilities). For some quantities we are able to derive closed form solutions, others can be obtained via computational mean-field approximations.     

我国基金托管人制度的法律问题与完善建议

我国基金托管人制度源于国外保管人制度,但在法律地位、独立性等方面和海外不同,并且在运行机制上也具有一定差异。实务中,我国基金托管人制度存在准入门槛高、独立性不足、投资监督性质不明、激励机制僵化等问题,有必要强化基金托管人制度,完善相应的制度建设。     

人民币汇率与我国通货膨胀的传递效应研究*--基于结构突变的阈值协整理论分析

本文基于不完全汇率传递理论,结合当前我国宏观经济运行特点,运用结构突变的协整方法,对人民币汇率与我国通货膨胀水平之间的价格传递效应进行研究。长期来看,人民币汇率变动对物价水平的传递效应在2008年10月和2010年5月出现了两次结构性变化;汇率传递系数的符号也在2008年10月份出现变化,由此前的负向传递突变为正向传递。短期来看,人民币汇率变动对物价水平的传递存在着非对称性的短期动态调整过程,并且表现出典型的“缓升陡降”型周期波动。     

Trait Recognition: An Alternative Approach to Early Warning Systems in Commercial Banking

The present study reports the empirical results of trait recognition (TR) as an alternative early warning system for identifying failing US commercial banks. TR has previously been employed in the sciences, and unlike previous statistical and nonparametric models, incorporates a large number of interaction variables based on the independent variables taken two and three at a time. Discriminatory original and interaction variables (or traits) are selectively retained for use in classifying observations based on a voting procedure. Comparative results for failed and nonfailed US commercial banks using Call Report data indicate that the TR model generally outperformed logit regression models, in some cases by a considerable margin. A major implication of these results is that TR could be useful in other binary choice problems in business finance and accounting, including predictions of nonbank failures, bond rating changes, and other firm events.     

Adding and subtracting Black-Scholes: A new approach to approximating derivative prices in continuous-time models

We develop a new approach to approximating asset prices in the context of continuous-time models. For any pricing model that lacks a closed-form solution, we provide a closed-form approximate solution, which relies on the expansion of the intractable model around an “auxiliary” one. We derive an expression for the difference between the true (but unknown) price and the auxiliary one, which we approximate in closed-form, and use to create increasingly improved refinements to the initial mispricing induced by the auxiliary model. The approach is intuitive, simple to implement, and leads to fast and extremely accurate approximations. We illustrate this method in a variety of contexts including option pricing with stochastic volatility, computation of Greeks, and the term structure of interest rates.     

Using Asset Turnover and Profit Margin to Forecast Changes in Profitability

Financial statement analysis textbooks advocate disaggregating profitability into asset turnover and profit margin in performing financial analysis. In spite of the prominence of this technique, there is no evidence demonstrating its usefulness in a forecasting context. We provide evidence that disaggregating return on assets into asset turnover and profit margin does not provide incremental information for forecasting the change in return on assets one year ahead, but that disaggregating the change in return on assets into the change in asset turnover and the change in profit margin is useful in forecasting the change in return on assets one year ahead.