A VAR ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF HOUSING LOAN POLICY

Abstract.  I investigated the effect of the Government Housing Loan Corporation (GHLC) housing loan policy on housing starts in Japan, employing the VAR model for the first time in the area of Japanese housing policy. A lowering of the interest rate of GHLC home loans increased housing starts up to the point where the budget exceeded the actual amount of GHLC home loans granted. I found that the amount of GHLC home loans was effective in increasing housing starts up to the point of structural change, after which the effect was seen to lessen.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH PATTERNS IN FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES

We find that household wealth is distributed more unequally in the U.S. in 1983 than France in 1986. The Gini coefficient is 0.77 for the U.S. and 0.71 for France. There are also significant differences in the composition of wealth. Owner-occupied housing accounted for half of total assets in France, and only 30 percent in the U.S., while corporate stock and financial securities amounted to 19 percent in the U.S. and 8 percent in France. The debt-equity ratio was 0.13 in France and 0.20 in the U.S. The age-wealth profile in the two countries had the characteristic hump-shape predicted by the life-cycle model, but the profile was much flatter in France and peaked for families aged 50–59 in France, compared to 60–69 in the US.     

B2C电子商务发展的路径依赖:跨国比较分析

近年来,在全球经济保持平稳增长和互联网宽带技术迅速普及的背景下,世界网上零售市场保持高速增长态势.然而,各国各地区在电子商务的发展水平和发展模式方面都存在着较大的差异.从演化经济学的视角出发,通过对美国等5个发达国家的B2C电子商务发展模式的比较,分析了原有零售业环境对新的电子商务发展路径产生的潜在影响,并初步探讨了中国的B2C电子商务发展的路径选择问题.     

国内外历史城市遗产旅游研究比较分析

通过对国内外相关研究文献的检索与筛选,从研究领域内容、研究学科理论与方法等方面对国内外历史城市遗产旅游研究现状进行了比较分析,发现国外研究起步较早,理论研究与方法运用较为成熟,实证分析细微深入,而国内研究起步、学科理论及研究方法的运用等相对落后,尚处于理论引进与学科融合的起步研究阶段.通过比较分析,明晰现状成果与差距,对于吸收借鉴国外研究的成熟理论与方法,充实国内研究具有一定的理论意义与现实意义.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PLANT DYNAMICS BY SIZE: KOREAN MANUFACTURING

A comparative analysis on Korean manufacturing plants is performed by size of plants and sources of TFP growth are decomposed into entry, exit, and survival effects of plants, focusing on the pre- and post-crisis periods. Additional survival analyses investigate internal and external determinants of the survival of plants. The results indicate that the exit of small- and medium-sized establishments (SMEs) with higher productivity is becoming problematic in the post-crisis period. The improvements in large-scale establishments (LSEs) after the crisis appeared to occur generally in high-technology industrial sectors; SMEs in low-technology industries are suffering from a sluggish market selection process.     

长三角经济区人力资本状况比较研究

对长三角经济区的上海、江苏、浙江三省市1990—2002年期间的人力资本存量进行了估算,比较分析了三省市的人力资本投资、投资效率、资本存量状况、空间结构及其特点。     

中国国有银行改革的比较制度分析

中国国有银行经历了多次改革而未能实现预期的商业化改革目标,甚至在其股份制改革后也很难说建立了现代银行制度。本文利用比较制度分析方法,从制度互补视角对此原因进行分析,本文的结论是,中国的金融改革只是经济体制整体改革的一部分,国有银行改革是在与企业改革和政府职能转变的互动中实现的。     

THE SOVIET PATH TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Considerable attention has been devoted in the past to the methodological issues involved in the measurement and explanation of economic growth. Following the method pioneered by Denison and applied by him to the United States and Western Europe, comparative studies have been made of various other countries; that for Japan is of special interest. The present paper extends the analysis to the Soviet Union. In order to preserve comparability, the analysis follows the Denison methodology exactly, and compares the results with those for the United States, Northwest Europe, and Japan.     

比较创新体制与比较历史创新体制——开创比较经济学研究的新框架

近十几年来,建基于新制度经济学和博弈论的广泛影响,比较制度分析和历史制度分析在比较经济学领域已经成为最有影响的分析范式,但它在处理技术创新、制度演化和结构变迁等诸多问题上却存在着固有的缺陷。为了克服这些缺陷,本文以演化经济学的研究纲领为基础,提出了比较创新体制和比较历史创新体制作为比较经济学研究新框架的构想,简要说明了它在基础理论上与比较制度分析和历史制度分析所存在的重大差别,论述了这种新框架的概念、体系内容和意义所在,综述了相关研究的最新进展,并讨论了比较创新体制和比较历史创新体制的重大前沿问题。本文认为,比较创新体制和比较历史创新体制是我国创新型国家建设不可或缺的研究工具,它为比较经济学的新发展提供了最有价值的新范式和新框架,比较经济学界不应该把其发展排除在视野之外。     

COOPERATIVE ESSENCE AND ENTREPRENEURIAL QUALITY: A COMPARATIVE CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS

This article links two different fields of research, entrepreneurship and cooperatives, and studies whether, depending on the context, differences in terms of the fulfilment of the cooperative philosophy (cooperative essence) and entrepreneurial quality exist. To this aim, a statistical analysis is carried out using data from two Spanish regions: Andalusia and the Basque Country. The results enable us to conclude, firstly, that cooperative essence differs in relation to regional context, but not in relation to entrepreneurial quality. Secondly, cooperative essence and entrepreneurial quality are positively related, suggesting that cooperative essence may be part of the entrepreneurial quality of these kinds of firms.     

港澳珠江三角洲与长江三角洲可持续发展测评比较

采用垂直式与水平式相结合的指标体系,选取1997、2000、2002年三个时间断面,对两大三角洲(经济区域)的可持续发展状况及其变化进行测评与对比分析。从总体度量看,长江三角洲保持了对港澳珠江三角洲的微弱领先,港澳珠江三角洲在可持续发展水平上略具优势,尤其在经济发展水平上更为超前,长江三角洲可持续发展的协调状况及其变化明显优于港澳珠江三角洲。两大三角洲在资源环境支持水平与支撑能力、科教发展能力上都表现出一致的强劲增长,在经济发展能力上都表现出负的增长变化。     

IDEAL AND REAL JAPANESE MONETARY POLICY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL AND OPTIMAL POLICY MEASURES*

This paper discusses the successes and failures of Japanese monetary policy by evaluating policies from January 1980 to May 2003 in the light of optimal policy rules. First, we quantitatively conceptualize the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s policy decisions by employing Bernanke and Mihov's (1998 ) econometric methodology for developing monetary policy measures and term the resulting policy measure the ‘actual policy measure’. Next, assuming that the BOJ is committed to optimal policy rules, we simulate optimal policy paths, which we term ‘optimal policy measures’. We evaluate Japanese monetary policy historically by comparing actual and optimal policy measures.     

被征地农民社会保障筹资模式选择

从基金收支平衡能力来看,个人账户和社会统筹通道结合型政府承担的责任最小,收支平衡能力很强;而社会统筹型收支平衡受工资增长率和利率影响很大,在目前经济形势下,将会面临巨大的资金缺口;完全个人账户型收支平衡能力很强,政府财政投入适当,保障水平较高,是被征地农民社会保障最佳筹资模式。     

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE: A LOAN MECHANISM-DESIGN APPROACH

International Financial Institutions (IFIs) tie resource transfers to capital-scarce countries to improvements in their economic policies and institutions. The objective of this assistance is twofold: to augment the recipient's capital base and to improve its allocation of resources. This paper offers a political-economy explanation for the limited success of some of these loan programs. In our model, governments select policies under the influence of interest groups. Their capacity to absorb IFI loans and their reform efforts are both unobservable to the IFI. An optimally designed loan mechanism must create sufficient incentives – in the form of rewards and punishments – to counter the influence of interest groups on economic policy choices. The loan mechanism is, however, constrained in two ways: it cannot punish a country so severely as to threaten its political stability and it must remain affordable to the IFI. Whenever reform incentives are inadequate, a government will accept the loan but cheat on the implementation of reforms. If, on the other hand, the mechanism design is optimal, it might be so costly to the IFI that a well-entrenched interest group can block the reform program. Nonetheless, the availability of properly designed loan mechanisms will push governments to implement partial reforms even if the optimal mechanism is too costly for the IFI.     

问询函监管与银行信贷决策的改善*

近年来,证券交易所推行的问询函监管逐渐成为保障和改善上市公司信息披露质量的重要机制,其实施效果自然成为监管者和学者关注的焦点。本文从银行的角度研究问询函监管对外部利益相关者的溢出效应,具体考察问询函监管对银行信贷决策的影响。研究发现,在公司被出具问询函后,银行的贷款利率显著更高,贷款期限显著更短,银行贷款要求提供担保的可能性和比例更高。进一步研究发现,当公司处于信息风险和信用风险相对较高的情境中,或银行对信息风险和信用风险较为关注的情况下,银行贷款利率上升幅度更加显著,不过,贷款期限、担保要求等非价格条款并没有显著差异。同时,问询函对银行信贷决策的影响在银企之间存在较强的信息不对称时更加显著。最后,本文发现公司收到问询函以后,分析师预测分歧度显著提高,这表明信息风险是问询函监管影响银行信贷决策的一个可能渠道。