Efficiency of the Warsaw Stock Exchange: Analysis of Selected Properties

The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) has been operating in present form for 15 years. WSE is regarded as an “emerging market”. We can observe that it is still developing (in order to become “developed market”). The level of development is often analyzed with reference to the efficiency of the market. We can say that the capital market is efficient if the prices at the market fully reflect all available information. The aim of the presented research is to analyze the current situation at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Particularly we investigate the weak form of efficiency using selected statistical tests. The research is based on actual data concerning daily observations of shares at the Warsaw Stock Exchange transformed to the logarithmic rates of return, considering the period 2000–2006 and subperiods: the bear market, stagnation and the bull market.

Dividend-Driven Trading Strategies: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

This study presents an analysis of dividend-driven trading strategies based on dividend yield growth effects in the Polish stock market in the years 1994–2004. Results indicate that the dividend yield growth portfolios were capable of beating the market in the entire sample period. Their performance, however, was not consistent over time and the highest returns were obtained during final years. Empirical findings based on the analysis of different types of portfolios demonstrate the importance of dividends as a source of significant fundamental information items from stock market companies. At the same time, they show that a dividend investment strategy for the Polish stock market is most successful when the selection of stocks for the dividend yield growth portfolios is subject to further restrictions, most notably concerning company size.

Evaluation of Selected Methods of Classification for the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The portfolio analysis allows a complex analysis of all the securities and it is connected with diversification of the portfolios risk. The problem that arises before the portfolios will be constructed and is connected with database of securities—what generally simplifies selection securities to portfolios. In a way of building database can be useful a taxonomic methods. The main aim of the paper is researching stability classifications for proposing methods and verification how different or similar they are. Such an approach in analysis of classification stability gives more information about researching companies and their financial or economic stability. It also gives information about the Polish capital market. In addition, such analyses are useful in making investment decisions, particularly in selection companies to portfolio. Presented at the Fifty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 10–14, 2004, Lisbon, Portugal.     

Price limits on a call auction market: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

We empirically investigate the impact of price limits on volatility and autocorrelation in the call auction segment of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Because call auctions offer time-out periods to investors, we do not expect price limits to counter overreaction and panic in this market structure. Indeed, our empirical findings show that price limits result in excess volatility on the next trading day and strong continuation of price movements, which indicates that price limits only delay the adjustment of prices to equilibrium levels. Our results question the necessity of price limits in the call auction system of the WSE.     

Competition and ownership structure: Substitutes or complements? Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

In this paper we analyse the impact of product market competition and ownership structure on firm performance. Our results show that product market competition has a positive and significant impact on performance. Concerning the effect of ownership concentration, we find a U–shaped relationship with performance. Firms with relatively dispersed and relatively concentrated ownership have higher productivity growth than firms with an intermediate level of ownership concentration. This correlation between concentration of ownership and productivity growth is not explained by the type of the controlling shareholder. Finally, product market competition and good governance tend to reinforce each other rather than to be substitutes. Competition has no significant effect on performance for the firms with ‘poor’ governance; on the contrary, it has a significant positive effect in the case of firms with ‘good’ corporate governance. JEL classification: D24, G32, L1, P2.     

Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Non-Tradable Income: An Experimental Analysis

Abstract. This paper reports the results of an experiment on portfolio choice in the presence of non-tradable income. The non-tradable income part could either be riskless or risky (background risk). In many cases, we observe behavior that is qualitatively consistent with the predictions of normative theory. However, correlations between financial and non-tradable wealth are neglected. The computation of aggregated risk profiles helps subjects to partly overcome the deviations from normative theory due to neglect of correlations.     

Stock markets in transition: the Warsaw experiment1

This paper investigates the development from 1991 to 1994 of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which opened on April 16th, 1991. An overview is presented focusing first on the deepening of the equity market, with a still limited but increasing number of listed companies, and then on the high trading activity and price dynamics with their impressive outburst in 1993. Three important dimensions are thereafter analyzed: the relevance of organizational and regulatory choices, the degree of market inefficiency and the origin of the discrepancy between IPO prices and first quoted market prices. Concluding remarks concentrate on the market's ability to fulfil its fundamental tasks.     

Serving SMEs Via the Stock Exchange: Historical Lessons from the Lisbon Stock Exchange

The development of large companies in the western world — many being huge multinational corporations — and the sheer size of their financial needs has given an added importance to tradability, a fact that can clearly be gauged by the recently discovered “high frequency trading” (HFT) operations which are only possible with large issues. Also contributing to the importance of tradability is the recent demutualization of most exchanges during the 1990s, which turned them into for-profit organizations. In fact, large issues of shares or bonds allow economies of scale, and generate experience in listing practices and trading operations, thereby enhancing the profitability of those commercially oriented stock exchanges. Thus, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are now much less attractive to these organizations, as compared to large enterprises (LEs), due to their inherent lack of liquidity and to the economies of scale. We discuss the barriers before SMEs, which require special accommodations to be able to raise stable funds for their development.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Bombay Stock Exchange Index

The fluctuations in the rate of returns of the Bombay stock exchange are analyzed through wavelet transform. The fluctuations, in various time scales, naturally separated by the wavelets, are subjected to statistical analysis. The localization and multiresolution properties of the wavelets enable one to identify collective behaviour in the stock market and the extent of their influence at various time scales. The Gaussian nature of the rate of returns at certain scales and the periodic nature of the same, at other scales, are clearly brought out by this analysis. The utility of this approach for modeling purpose is also elucidated.

     

Construction and Evaluation of Trading Systems: Warsaw Index Futures

This paper presents and compares 15 trading systems constructed for the Warsaw Stock Exchange futures contracts. These trading systems are constructed applying technical analysis and artificial neural networks (ANN). The efficiency of constructed trading systems is measured by the profit, which could be gained on the analyzed market when an investor uses various methods of buy and sell signals generating. Investigation is conducted for daily observations of stock index WIG20 futures from December 1, 1999 to November 28, 2003. The conclusion is that the combination of the technical analysis and artificial intelligence in order to gain profit from trading on the Polish futures market can bring much better investment results than trade in the traditional way (JEL G10, C45).     

Analysis on the Correlation between Stock Exchange and Economic Growth

The problem considered is the correlation between stock exchange and economy growth. Stepwise regression is being used on the following figures： increasing rate of GDP, the volume of stock market, and liquidity. As a result, we give .an.equation of national economy and stock market. Then, we use Granger＇s Causality test to prove that the stock market has positive effects on the national economy.     

股票资产组合VaR研究基于混合D藤Copula模型

本文在对上证市场五种股票资产组合的风险分析中以VaR作为风险度量指标,采用基于Pair Copula高维建模理论的混合D藤Copula模型,建立了反应多个资产组合相关结构的联合分布模型。该模型对传统D藤Copula建模方法作了进一步的改进,通过一定的选择标准,确定了D藤中每个Pair Copula函数的最优函数族,这样使得所建立的模型不仅考虑到了资产维数的影响,而且还能捕捉到组合内部因子间相关结构的差异性,从而改进后的模型能更好地描述资产组合的相关结构,并且能更精确地反映资产组合收益的实际分布。最后,以混合D藤Copula模型为基础,利用Monte Carlo方法计算了上证市场五种股票资产组合的VaR,并通过实证研究进一步证明了该模型的有效性。     

A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece

The paper develops a financial systemic stress index (FSSI) for Greece. We present a novel methodology for constructing and evaluating a systemic stress index which i) adopts the suggestion of Hollo et al. (2012) [“CISS — A ‘Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress’ in the Financial System” ECB working paper] to incorporate time-varying correlations between different market segments, but uses a multivariate GARCH approach which is able to capture abrupt changes in correlations, shown to be a prerequisite for correctly identifying financial crises, ii) utilizes both market and balance sheet data which is a novel feature for systemic stress indicators and iii) evaluates the FSSI utilizing the results of a survey, conducted among financial experts, in order to construct a benchmark chronology of financial crises for Greece, which in turn is used to investigate whether changes in the FSSI are good leading indicators for financial crises. The results show that the FSSI is able to provide a precise periodization of crises. Our findings suggest that accurate depiction of the systematic nature of stress is pivotal in order to provide proper policy guidance with respect to financial crisis identification.     

Disagreement between rating agencies and bond opacity: A theoretical perspective

In this paper, we explicitly model a bond rating process under varying degrees of bond opacity and derive conditions under which disagreements between rating agencies (rating splits) can serve as a useful proxy for opacity in empirical analyses.     

Price clustering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We investigate price clustering of intraday trades and negotiated block trades on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from 2003 to 2009. Prices of traded assets tend to cluster on certain final digits, such as 0 and 5. In Chinese culture, 8 is associated with good luck and 4 with death so these numbers may be attractive or avoided. We find that price clustering on the final digit of 0 is significantly higher during the morning call auction and early in the trading day. We find no evidence of price clustering for the digit 8, but there is a significant dearth of prices ending in the inauspicious number 4. Price clustering is significantly higher for negotiated block trades, for which about 28% end with 0. Multivariate analysis shows that price clustering is lower for more liquid firms, but higher for firms with higher return volatility, a higher price level, or when the market is volatile. Our evidence supports the costly negotiation hypothesis. Our results also support the attraction hypothesis in that we document significant price clustering at round numbers and even numbers even after controlling for factors that are associated with price uncertainty.