Tourism,terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models

This study investigates the impact of terrorist attacks and political violence on the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Tunisia. The dataset employed consists of monthly data that covers the period from January 2000 to September 2016, which includes several political and terrorist attacks in Tunisia and the region. Empirically, we investigate the true data generating process (DGP) of these two proxies of tourism activity by accounting for four statistical properties that characterize these series: (1) seasonality, (2) unit roots, (3) breaks, and (4) long memory behavior.Our empirical findings show strong evidence of stationarity, five breaks in the tourist arrival time series and spurious long memory behavior. By estimating a 3-state Markov switching model consisting of the mean, trend, and variance, we find that the Tunisian Jasmine revolution and two recent terrorist attacks, one at the Bardo National Museum on March 18, 2015 and the other at the tourist resort at Port El Kantaoui, Sousse on June 26, 2015, played an important role in influencing the tourism activity of the country. Our empirical findings show also that local shocks have a more important impact than international shocks in influencing tourism activity. Interestingly, we find that the effects of terrorist shocks have a long duration compared to political violence shocks. Several security, marketing, and economic policies have been proposed and discussed in the paper.     

Vulnerability and resilience of the tourism sector in India: Effects of natural disasters and internal conflict

Tourism resilience studies often focus on a single shock event. In reality, the same destination may face different kinds of shocks. It is important to compare the relative effect and resilience to different shocks.Using a panel dataset for 22 Indian states, we build random effect models to understand the impact of natural disasters and political conflict on domestic and foreign tourist arrivals. Severe conflict events affect domestic tourist arrivals negatively, while natural disasters do not. In contrast, natural disasters affect international tourist arrivals negatively but conflicts do not.We study resilience by identifying breaks in tourist arrivals and noting corresponding recovery times. Breaks were observed in more states for the international segment compared to domestic segment. Recovery times was also greater for international rather than domestic tourists. Thus domestic tourists seem to be more resilient compared to international tourists. Our study provides useful insights that may have policy implications.     

The internet and tourism‐part IV: TravelWeb

Abstract

The sporadic domestic political instability during the last decade, compounded with the ongoing international war on terrorism in Afghanistan and beyond, has created a substantial decline in tourist visits to Nepal. Safety and security are important aspects of travel destination choice and the perceived risk within Nepal and the South Asian region has mired the pace of international tourist arrivals. The objectives of this paper were to examine the state of tourism in Nepal and the negative repercussions of the political instability and international conflict that has thwarted the potential for growth.     

Estimating the Economic Contribution of Visitor Spending in the Kruger National Park to the Regional Economy

Tourism has been labelled the economic driver of the 21st century due to the multiplier effect of tourist spending and the linkage of this industry to almost all other industries. This paper aims to estimate the economic impact of visitor spending in the Kruger National Park. The following objectives are set: (1) to determine the spending pattern of a typical tourist visiting the Kruger National Park, (2) to determine the contribution of tourists visiting the Park to the economy of the region. The methodology used includes both a survey and an input-output analysis. A survey conducted in June 2002 was used to determine the spending pattern of tourists visiting the Park and together with additional secondary data, were used to determine the contribution of visitor spending in the Park to the economy of the region. The results of the survey indicate that tourists spend most of their money on accommodation and transport in the Park. The South African National Parks (SANP) has created an environment that induces spending, but recommendations are made to encourage even more spending by tourists, thereby enhancing the economic benefits of the Park.     

The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study

This study explores the impact of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand in Malaysia using a dynamic panel data approach for 45 tourism source countries over the period 2005–2015. The results show that institutions play a very important role in explaining the behaviour of inbound tourism demand. To obtain a better picture, we investigate the response of international tourists to disaggregated institutional quality. We find that international tourists are more concerned about political stability, governmental effectiveness, regulations, laws, and corruption than voice and accountability. Therefore, policymakers should focus on ways to improve institutional quality to significantly increase international tourist arrivals.     

Impact of unexpected events on inbound tourism demand modeling: evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea

This paper attempts to evaluate how South Korea’s inbound tourist arrivals from China have been affected by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. Using quarterly data, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) is performed to capture the influence of the MERS outbreak. Estimation results of the general ADLM reveal that the MERS outbreak has a significant adverse impact on the total inbound tourist arrivals from China, as well as on tour arrivals; however, for business, official, and other types of tourist arrivals, its influence is insignificant. Furthermore, the error correction model is estimated to demonstrate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics among the underlying variables. Our analysis not only provides empirical evidence on evaluating the impact of the MERS outbreak on different types of tourism demand, but also identifies main determinants and suggests appropriate model specifications for each type of tourist arrivals.     

Is UNESCO recognition effective in fostering tourism? A comment on Yang,Lin and Han: Reply

This note replies Cellini's comment on the real effect of WHL in inducing more tourist arrivals in Yang, Lin and Han (2010, Tourism Management). Due to the time-invariant feature of the WHL number in the short-run, the fixed effect of panel data model seems to be inadequate on evaluating the impact of WHL on attracting international tourists. However, pooling estimates show that a region with more WHLs can attract more tourists.     

Overtourism,optimisation, and destination performance indicators: a case study of activities in Fjord Norway

Abstract

Many global tourist destinations have experienced growth in arrivals. This has triggered various conflicts in destinations and sparked debates as to how to deal with what is increasingly referred to as ‘overtourism’. Most Destination Marketing Organisations (DMOs) pursue strategies to stimulate arrivals even further. Pro-growth discourses are reinforced by lead bodies such as the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). However, maximisation strategies based on higher numbers of tourists increasingly cause conflicts with local residents, whereas simultaneously undermining climate change mitigation pledges as negotiated in the Paris Agreement. New approaches to destination management based on optimisation are therefore warranted. Drawing on a survey of international tourists (n?=?5,249) in south-western Norway, this article discusses whether ‘activities’, i.e. the development of local, small-scale and ideally more sustainable experiences, can contribute to economic growth without necessarily increasing numbers of arrivals. Results confirm that destinations should seek to better understand their markets, including length of stay, spending, and/or activity intention, to identify profitable markets. Ultimately, such knowledge may help addressing overtourism conflicts while building tourism systems that are more economically, socially, and environmentally resilient.     

The Impact of Sports Events on Inbound Tourism in New Zealand

Sports events are an instrument of destination marketing for host countries. Over the past 40 years, New Zealand has held sports events such as the Commonwealth Games and the America's Cup and many international tourists have visited New Zealand during these events. While past studies have examined the economic value of such tourism at a generic level, the impact of mega sports events at more specific levels is unknown. Thus, this study examines not only the impact of eight mega sports events upon New Zealand's international tourist arrivals over the 1983–2005 period at the overall level, but also the number of tourist arrivals from participating countries for each event. Results suggest that the 1990 Commonwealth Games, the 2000 America's Cup (yachting) and the 2005 British and Irish Lions Tour (rugby) had a significant impact on tourist arrivals overall and on arrivals from each participating country.     

Tourism and gender (in)equality: Global evidence

This study investigates the nexus between tourism development and gender (in)equality in a global sample of 111 economies from 1995 to 2017. Notably, this study (i) examines mutual relationships between the two factors, and (ii) carries out a comprehensive and inclusive analysis of three kinds of tourism (domestic, outbound, and international), using two measures (spending, and number of tourists) and four dimensions of gender (in)equality (employment, education, health, and rights). First, there is a mutual relationship between tourism development and gender (in)equality. Second, domestic tourism spending, visitor spending, and number of tourist arrivals generally appear to improve gender equality in employment, education, and rights. However, outbound tourism spending seems to increase gender inequality in employment and rights. In turn, gender equality likely stimulates travel activities in terms of both spending and number of tourists.     

The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country

This longitudinal study examines the impact that terrorist attacks within a representative group of European countries can have on the tourism demand of a South European country with no record of terrorism attacks. In order to analyze the connections between terrorist attacks and tourists' arrivals, occurred between 2002 and the end of 2016, an Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive model was used for multivariate time series analysis. The main results show that terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourist arrivals and confirm the existence of terrorism spillover, namely the substitution and generalization effects phenomena.     

Macro and non-macro explanatory factors of Chinese hotel stock returns

This study investigates the link between macro and non-macro explanatory factors and Chinese hotel stock returns. Macro variables include growth rates of industrial production and imports, discount rates, yield spread and inflation rate. In addition, growth rate of total foreign tourist arrivals (ΔTA) was introduced as another critical macro factor that may affect Chinese hotel stock returns, considering a tremendous growth of tourism in China. Empirical results indicated that the impact of ΔTA was positive, but insignificant. Thus, Chinese hotel stock returns were more sensitive to general macro variables. Non-macro events that could significantly impact Chinese hotel stock returns encompass financial crises, natural disasters, wars, terrorist attacks, political events, and sports mega-events. Discussions and conclusions are provided to guide hospitality investors.     

Tourism demand forecasting with online news data mining

This study empirically tests the role of news discourse in forecasting tourist arrivals by examining Hong Kong. It employs structural topic modeling to identify key topics and their meanings related to tourism demand. The impact of the extracted news topics on tourist arrivals is then examined to forecast tourism demand using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with the selected news topic variables method. This study confirms that including news data significantly improves forecasting performance. Our forecasting model using news topics also outperformed the others when the destination was experiencing social unrest at the local level. These findings contribute to tourism demand forecasting research by incorporating discourse analysis and can help tourism destinations address various externalities related to news media.     

Earthquake effects on tourism in central Italy

This paper proposes an approach to economic assessment of the impact on tourist flows of the earthquake that hit the Umbria region in Central Italy on September 26, 1997. Local arrivals in Assisi fell drastically the month following the main shock, compared to the same month of the previous year. The event study methodology, frequently applied in finance, is employed to evaluate the statistical relevance of the shock over time and space. A further and straightforward application of the event study analysis assesses the substantial amount of loss between October 1997 and June 1998 due to the drop of tourism business.     

Assessing the economic impact of a UNESCO World Heritage designation

Grand Pré Historic Site in Nova Scotia (Canada) is in the process of applying for a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site (WHS) designation. Conventional wisdom is that such a designation would generate public awareness and increase visitation to the site. The goal of this paper is to estimate the impact of a WHS designation on tourist visitation and related expenditures. Various tourism statistics (covering 1990–2008) for Nova Scotia and its only other established UNESCO site – Lunenburg (designated in 1995) – served as data. Regression analysis produced an estimate of the tourist visitation impact that a WHS designation had on Lunenburg, and could be expected to have on Grand Pré. An increase of 6.2% in tourist visitors due to a WHS designation was estimated. Survey data collected at Grand Pré provided average spending per visitor. The economic impacts were analyzed under both a projected and a historical scenario of visitation. Based on its 10-year historic visitation average, a WHS designation for Grand Pré would generate an increase of 3000 visitors per year. These visitors would generate spending of approximately $200,000 annually in the local economy. Such spending would provide a boost to the local tourism industry, which has experienced significant decline in recent years.     

Urban air pollution in China: destination image and risk perceptions

Inbound tourist arrivals into China have been declining in recent years, possibly in response to increasing levels of urban air pollution. To examine Westerners’ contemporary views on China as a travel destination, with a particular focus on air pollution, this research surveyed 600 US and Australian residents. An online panel survey collected data on cognitive and affective destination image, cognitive and affective risk perceptions, intention to visit China and key demographic variables. The findings show that, while China's cognitive image attributes were perceived positively, potential travellers expressed negative views about travel risks in China in general and about air quality in particular. Importantly, feelings towards the risk of air quality had a significant negative impact on destination image as well as intention to visit China. The research contributes to theory by highlighting the importance of considering affective risk perceptions in destination image studies. While some market segments seemed less sensitive to air pollution than others, this paper concludes that unless China proactively addresses the problem of air pollution, for example by seeking to stimulate positive feelings, international arrivals may continue to be compromised.     

Influential Leadership and Media: How a Single Statement Can Affect an Industry

Historically, the most powerful political and organizational leaders have been described as being charismatic. With technology's increasing impact on society, these leaders have widespread access to the masses. Utilizing charismatic leadership and media saliency theories, this study aims to analyze the impact that occurred in the Las Vegas convention industry after the President made specific comments concerning Las Vegas. These comments implied that convention spending in Las Vegas was wasteful, and resulted in the cancellation or relocation of over 400 conventions in one week. This research utilizes monthly, aggregate convention data from January 2002 to March 2014 to evaluate the impact of this comment empirically. Time series regression analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of President Obama's comment, controlling for other factors. The results suggest that President Obama's comments had a significant negative effect on both convention attendance and the number of meetings held. The findings provide insight into the effect of singular comments made by influential leaders.     

The inter-relationship between rural and mass tourism: The case of Catalonia,Spain

In certain regions of Southern Europe, mature coastal resorts are currently coexisting with rural tourism areas several kilometers inland. This paper analyzes the inter-relationship of these two types of tourism and the conditions for sustaining both in Mediterranean destinations. To do so, common and uncommon characteristics of the tourist product in rural and mass tourism are identified. The case study focuses on the region of Catalonia, Spain. By applying a hedonic price model, the valuation of some traditional mass tourism characteristics in rural tourism is tested. The results show that rural and mass tourism in the region share several attributes, some of them with opposite effects. The general conclusion is that both types of tourism are compatible, but should be developed and promoted independently to preserve the attractiveness of the destination. Some managerial recommendations for rural tourism in Catalonia are also derived from this analysis.     

The effects of SARS on the Hong Kong tourism industry: An empirical evaluation

The objective of this study is to assess the temporal impact of SARS on the tourists' arrival in Hong Kong. An econometric strategy was carefully selected to determine the existence of unit roots in data series containing the number of tourist arrivals from 36 source countries between 1978 and 2001. The existence of unit roots can detect the stationary properties of the series. The analysis finds that data series of 24 countries contain unit roots and hence any form of exogenous shocks, like the SARS epidemic, can have permanent impact on the number of tourist arrivals. Included in this category are Japan, Taiwan, the US and the UK, which are the main source of tourists for Hong Kong. The paper recommends that authorities take source-country-specific measures to manage the negative effect of SARS.