The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited

This paper explores the relation between countries’ pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries’ trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization.     

Environmental regulation and trade pattern：a case of China

As a growing number of countries, including both developed and developing countries, have in recent yearstaken environmental regulation at different levels, a question of great concern has been raised： can the regulation alterthe existing trade volume and trade pattern, and ultimately drive pollution-intensive industries to countries with low-levelregulations or even those without regulations at all？ Starting from the three different propositions concerning therelationship between environmental regulation and trade pattern, this paper applies cointegration analysis and errorcorrection model to empirically testing the relationship between environmental regulation and trade in China during theperiod of 1985-2005. Our empirical results indicate that in the short run the collection of pollution discharge fees bearsa positive impact on the export share of clean products of total exports. Thus, higher pollution discharge fees raise theratio of clean products exports to total exports. This further indicates that more stringent environmental regulationpromotes the exports of clean products. In the long run pollution discharge fees are positively correlated with the exportshare of clean products but negatively associated with their import share. Such correlations imply that environmentalregulation tends to facilitate the international specialization in line with comparative advantages.     

Revisit causal nexus between military spending and debt: A panel causality test

This study revisits the causal relationship between military spending and debt burden in 11 OECD countries via a panel causality analysis that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries. Our empirical results indicate unidirectional causality from military spending to debt burden for Japan, Portugal, and the US; one-way causality from debt burden to military spending for both Canada and the UK; bidirectional causality for Spain; and for the rest of countries, we do not find any relationship between military spending and debt burden. The empirical evidence does not provide consistent results regarding the causal relationship between military spending and debt burden in these 11 OECD countries.     

Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis

This paper investigates the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. The panel causality testing approach, developed by Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006), exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach, Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992], based on the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Wald tests with the country specific bootstrap critical values, is applied to the panel of fifteen MENA countries for the period 1980–2007. In order to capture the different aspects of financial development, six different indicators are used. Empirical results show that there is no clear consensus on the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth for all measurements of financial development and it is also observed that the findings are country specific.     

中国对外直接投资对进出口贸易的影响分析

笔者在分析对外直接投资对进出口贸易影响机制的基础上,使用1993年～2009年中国对105个国家(地区)直接投资和进出口贸易的面板数据,应用动态VAR模型和面板格兰杰因果检验方法对我国的情况进行实证研究。结果表明:我国对外直接投资与出口及进口之间均存在双向格兰杰因果关系,对外直接投资是贸易创造型的,但这种创造效应还较为有限。因此,应积极发展对外直接投资,并发挥其与贸易的良性互动关系。     

Trade liberalization,financial modernization and economic development: An empirical study of selected Asia–Pacific countries

This study investigates the relationship between trade liberalization, financial modernization and economic development for 14 countries in the Asia and Pacific region over the period spanning from 1961 to 2011. The study uses panel data as they have many advantages over cross-sectional or time series data. In addition to analyzing the full panel, we also divide the 14 countries under study into two sub-samples: high-income countries and middle-income countries, based on World Bank's income classification as of 1st July 2013. The panel cointegration tests show a long run relationship between the above variables. The study uses Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method to estimate the models and then conducts Granger causality tests to identify patterns of causation among the variables of interest. In general, the results indicate unidirectional causality (1) from financial modernization to economic development for the entire panel and the panel of middle-income countries; (2) from trade liberalization to economic development for the whole panel as well as two subpanels of high-income and middle-income countries; and (3) from trade liberalization to financial modernization for the whole panel as well as two subpanels. The findings of this study support that the actual effect of financial depth on economic development (and vice versa) seems to depend on the level of financial development.     

What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns?

This paper proposes an empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of trade specialization, using a symmetric transformation of the standard Balassa (Manch Sch Econ Soc Stud 33(2):99–123, 1965) index and the conditional density estimation methods suggested by Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996). The framework is implemented using data on the cross-sector export and import specialization of the four initial EU Cohesion countries over the last 40 years. We discuss the importance of studying both the distribution’s external shape and the intra-distribution dynamics and why it is interesting to include imports in the analysis. We find a reduction of the overall degree of export specialization in Portugal, Greece and Spain. Conversely, Ireland has the strongest export specialization and there is evidence of an increase over time. The export intra-distribution dynamics reveal persistence of the specialization status in the four countries, especially for high values of the index. In all countries, the degree of specialization is higher for exports than for imports and intra-distribution dynamics reveal more mobility of import specialization than that of exports.     

Causal Linkages among the Product Diversification of Exports,Economic Globalization and Economic Growth

This paper examines causal relationships between economic globalization, the three indices for product diversification of exports (Theil index, intensive margin and extensive margin) and economic growth in the unbalanced panel data framework in 139 countries over the period 1970–2010. We also consider the subgroup of the countries related to the income levels and run the panel Granger non‐causality tests for heterogeneous panels. The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic globalization and economic growth. There is also a significant causal relationship that runs from all three indices for the diversification of exports to economic growth. After implementing various robustness checks, we observe that diversification of exports and economic globalization are positively related with economic growth merely in the upper middle economies.     

重庆FDI、国际贸易及经济增长相关性研究——基于VAR模型的经验实证

本文利用重庆1987—2008年的经济数据进行实证检验,根据VAR模型建立向量误差修正模型。实证结果表明重庆FDI、国际贸易与经济增长间具有长期均衡关系,且FDI和出口对经济增长影响明显,重庆市经济是典型的出口导向型经济模式,出口是导致进口增长的原因,FDI和出口之间存在双向因果关系。     

Openness in the Canadian economy: 1870–1988

The causal relation between openness and GDP and between exports and imports are examined. Causality test carried out in growth rates showed that over the period 1870–1988 openness, both narrowly and broadly defined, Granger-causes GDP growth; tests for the inverse causality produced mixed results, validating causality from GDP growth to export plus import growth, but rejecting causlaity from GDP growth to export growth; it was also found that export growth causes import growth, but not the opposite. Causality tests over four subperiods indicated the importance of openness for only the earliest phase of Canadian economic development. While the absence of causality in the later subperiods is largely compatible with the experience of the industrial countries, no meaningful comparison can be made between the experience of Canada and that of developing countries owing to causality variations of openness and to large differences in resource endowments.     

The long-run causal relationship between exports and economic growth in the euro area

This article employs panel methods that mitigate heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to determine the direction and sign of long run causality between exports and economic growth in the euro area economies from 2000 to 2014. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a unidirectional long-run Granger causality relationship from exports to economic growth in the euro area countries.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

Productivity growth and inflation in Europe: Evidence from panel cointegration tests

In this paper we investigate the productivity growth – inflation nexus in fifteen European countries over the period 1961–1999 using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. Emphasis is placed on the distinction between long-run and short-run causality using recently developed tests appropriate for heterogeneous panel. The empirical results are relevant for the role of the EMU and the Treaty of Maastricht in catching up, real convergence, and the future growth prospects of Europe. The policy implications of the findings are discussed in detail.     

国际分工演化过程模拟实验研究

文章提供了一个基于主体的开放经济模型———ASMEC-O,用于研究国际分工的演化过程。在国际贸易中,经济主体之间的相互作用内生地决定了国际分工的演化过程,而国际分工的演化过程又会对经济主体的行为产生深刻影响。经济主体应用分类器系统来选择正确的行为规则。我们应用该模型分别进行了在不完全竞争和规模递增假设下,比较利益和路径依赖情况下形成国际分工演化过程的模拟实验。实验结果表明:在两国存在资源禀赋差异的条件下,比较利益和规模经营是形成国际分工的自然原因;在两国不存在资源禀赋差异的条件下,路径依赖也是形成国际分工的重要原因。     

中国金融发展与外贸关系的面板协整检验和因果分析

基于跨省面板数据,运用面板协整理论和面板因果检验方法分析了中国金融发展与对外贸易之间的关系.多种协整检验方法一致表明,金融发展与出口贸易、金融发展与进口贸易之间都存在长期均衡稳定关系;而基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果检验则表明金融发展与对外贸易之间同时存在长、短期双向因果关系.这意味着在金融深化改革和贸易增长方式调整的特殊历史时期,保持金融和贸易政策的有效组合具有十分重要的意义.     

Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth

This paper explores the link between trade structure, trade specialization and per capita income growth. It is argued that industrial upgrading in export specialization patterns has a positive long-run growth effect, while the effect of structural change in industrial import patterns is in principle ambiguous. A standard empirical growth model is augmented by various measures of structural change. The hypothesis that not trade per se matters, but that various types of trading activities impact differently on economic growth is tested on a sample of 45 countries (OECD members and selected Asian and Latin American countries) over the period 1981–1997. The data set comprises exports and imports for 35 manufacturing industries at the 3-digit level of the ISIC classification which are grouped according to skill intensity. The results of the dynamic panel estimation point towards a positive long-run growth effect arising from trade specialization in medium-high-skill-intensive industries. Further, important distinctions between the skill intensity of export and import patterns and their respective influence on economic development, as well as between the group of developing countries and OECD members are observed in this relationship.JEL classification: C23, F43, O19, O41, O57The author is grateful to Michael Landesmann and Robert Stehrer (wiiw), Neil Foster and Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Department of Economics, University of Vienna), Michael Peneder (Austrian Institute of Economic Research) and two referees for valuable comments. This research is based on Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 8954, financial support by Oesterreichische Nationalbank is gratefully acknowledged.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data

This paper applies the most recently developed panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction models to re-investigate co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP within a multivariate framework that includes capital stock and labor input for 16 Asian countries during the 1971–2002 period. It employs the production side model (aggregate production function). The empirical results fully support a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP and energy consumption when the heterogeneous country effect is taken into account. It is found that although economic growth and energy consumption lack short-run causality, there is long-run unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. This means that reducing energy consumption does not adversely affect GDP in the short-run but would in the long-run; thus, these countries should adopt a more vigorous energy policy. Furthermore, we broaden the investigation by dividing the sample countries into two cross-regional groups, namely the APEC and ASEAN groups, and even more important results and implications emerge.     

The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach

The purpose of this article is to examine the export–output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1–2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration–cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan’s high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth.     

On the impact of innovation and inequality in economic growth

We present robust results on the empirical relationship among income inequality, innovation, and economic growth for a panel dataset of 74 countries over the period 1996–2014. We estimate pairwise causality tests to show that there is bidirectional causality between GDP per capita and R&D, while R&D causes the Gini index of income inequality, and it causes human capital. Allowing coefficients to be different across cross-sections of countries, we get in any case a pairwise bi-directionality. By dynamic panel data estimations, when regressing R&D on GDP per capita, we obtain a threshold value of 0.16% of R&D such that for values above it there is economic growth. While regressing R&D on the Gini index, we get a threshold of 0.10% of R&D above which, the income distribution begins to improve. Finally, we estimate a growth equation that depends on R&D, income inequality, and physical capital. We obtain two thresholds, one of 38.79 for the Gini (above which the economic growth decreases), and one of 0.06% for R&D such that above it, economic growth is rising.     

Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels

In this paper, we propose a simple Granger causality procedure based on Meta analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels. Firstly, we examine the finite sample properties of the causality test through Monte Carlo experiments for panels characterized by both cross-section independency and cross-section dependency. Then, we apply the procedure for investigating the export led growth hypothesis in a panel data of twenty OECD countries.