The welfare costs of union wage compression

This paper calculates the quantitative significance of the welfare costs of union wage compression. This is done in a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations where agents choose both schooling (human capital) and assets (physical capital). The labor market in this model is characterized as a right-to-manage contract, which allows unions to compress wage differentials between high- and low-skilled workers, by implementing a binding minimum wage. This paper shows that when labor markets are competitive even low levels of wage compression lead to large welfare losses, since wage compression creates costly unemployment among low-skilled workers. The effect of wage compression on the supply of skilled labor, however, is rather small, since the disincentive effect of a lower, high-skilled wage is, to a large extent, offset by a lower opportunity cost of schooling due to higher unemployment.     

Holdup and wage dispersion

This paper provides a search-theoretic model of the labor market, in which large firms hire workers sequentially and wages are bargained with full commitment. The firm's optimal vacancy-posting strategy trades off the fact that a larger size decreases marginal benefits from subsequent jobs, but avoids higher future recruiting costs attributable to the holdup effect. The holdup effect is dominant if the production function is not sufficiently concave, resulting in firm-size wage premium. The equilibrium features wage dispersion both within and between firms. When calibrated to the U.S. data, the extended model accounts for 67%–84% of the observed wage dispersion, among which 13%–27% is attributed to the holdup effect.     

The ins and outs of unemployment in Canada, 1976–2008

Abstract This paper studies the flows into and out of unemployment in Canada at an aggregate and a number of disaggregated levels. I find that inflows into unemployment are countercyclical and outflows are procyclical. At an aggregate level, changes in the rate at which individuals leave unemployment account for most of the changes in unemployment rates in Canada between 1976 and 2008. However, flows into unemployment matter more at some disaggregated levels. There are also some differences in the contributions of flows into and out of unemployment to changes in unemployment rates across the 1981–82 and 1990–92 recessions.     

Real wage cyclicality in urban China

This paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of real wages in urban China. We find wage pro-cyclicality in the public sector and in small/medium firms, but not in the private sector and in big firms.     

Wages,selectivity, and vacancies: Evaluating the short-term and long-term impact of the minimum wage on unemployment

Using a circular matching model (Marimon R, Zilibotti F. Unemployment vs. mismatch of talents: Reconsidering unemployment benefits. Economic Journal 1999;109; 266–291), where the wage setting is similar to Weiss (Weiss A. Job queues and layoffs in labor markets with flexible wages. Journal of Political Economy 1980; 88; 526–538), we reexamine Card and Krueger's (Card, D., Krueger, A. Myth and Measurement, the New Economics of the Minimum Wage. Princeton University Press; 1995) intuition on the impact of the minimum wage on unemployment. In the short term, a rise in the minimum wage increases the employment level by making firms less selective. In the long term, numerical simulations show that, despite the reduction of job creation, introducing a minimum wage may lower unemployment as soon as workers and jobs are sufficiently differentiated. However, beyond some limit, the wage increase raises unemployment whatever the degree of differentiation is.     

Training, search and wage dispersion

This paper combines on-the-job search and human capital theory to study the coexistence of firm-funded general training and frequent job turnovers. Although ex ante identical, firms differ in their training decisions. The model generates correlations between various firm characteristics that are consistent with the data. Wage dispersion exists among ex ante identical workers because workers of the same productivity are paid differently across firms, and because workers differ in their productivity ex post. Endogenous training breaks the perfect correlation between work experience and human capital, which yields new insights on wage dispersion and wage dynamics.     

Equilibrium unemployment with outsourcing and wage solidarity under labour market imperfections

We evaluate the effects of outsourcing and wage solidarity on wage formation and equilibrium unemployment in a heterogeneous labour market, where wages are determined by a monopoly labour union. We find that outsourcing promotes the wage dispersion between the high- and low-skilled workers. When the labour union adopts a solidaristic wage policy, it will dampen this tendency. Further, higher outsourcing will increase equilibrium unemployment among the high-skilled workers, whereas it will reduce it among the low-skilled workers. Overall, outsourcing will reduce economy-wide equilibrium unemployment under the reasonable condition that the proportion of high-skilled workers is sufficiently low.     

Stock-flow matching

We develop the implications of the stock-flow matching model for unemployment, vacancies, and worker flows. Workers and jobs are heterogeneous, so most worker-job pairs cannot profitably match, leading to the coexistence of unemployment and vacancies. Productivity shocks cause fluctuations in the number of jobs, which in turn cause fluctuations in other labor market variables. We derive exact expressions for employment and for worker transition rates in a finite economy and analyze their limiting behavior in a large economy. A calibrated version of the model is consistent with the observed co-movement and volatility of labor market variables.     

Search Theory: The 2010 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences

This paper surveys search theory with an emphasis on the contributions of the 2010 laureates for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides.     

Employment fluctuations and dynamics of the aggregate average wage in Poland, 1996–20031

The aggregate average wage is often used as an indicator of economic performance and welfare, and as such often serves as a benchmark for changes in the generosity of public transfers and for wage negotiations. Yet if economies experience a high degree of (non‐random) fluctuation in employment, the composition of the employed population will have a considerable effect on the computed average. In this paper we demonstrate the extent of this problem using data for Poland for the period 1996–2003. During these years the employment rate in Poland fell from 51.2 percent to 44.2 percent and most of this fall occurred between the end of 1998 and the end of 2002. We show that about a quarter of the growth in the average wage during this period could be attributed purely to changes in employment.     

Labor search and matching in macroeconomics

The labor search and matching model plays a growing role in macroeconomic analysis. This paper provides a critical, selective survey of the literature. Four fundamental questions are explored: How are unemployment, job vacancies, and employment determined as equilibrium phenomena? What determines worker flows and transition rates from one labor market state to another? How are wages determined? What role do labor market dynamics play in explaining business cycles and growth? The survey describes the basic model, reviews its theoretical extensions, and discusses its empirical applications in macroeconomics.The model has been developed against the background of difficulties with the use of the neo-classical, frictionless model of the labor market in macroeconomics. Its success includes the modelling of labor market outcomes as equilibrium phenomena, the reasonable fit of the data, and—when inserted into business cycle models—improved performance of more general macroeconomic models. At the same time, there is evidence against the Nash solution used for wage setting and an active debate as to the ability of the model to account for some of the cyclical facts.     

The empirical content of the job search model: Labor mobility and wage distributions in Europe and the US

Job search models of the labor market hypothesize a very tight correspondence between the determinants of labor turnover and individual wage dynamics on one hand, and the determinants of wage dispersion on the other. This paper offers a systematic examination of whether this correspondence is present in the data by estimating a rudimentary partial equilibrium job search model on a 3-year panel of individual worker data covering 10 European countries and the U.S. We find that our basic job search model fits the data surprisingly well. This also allows us to point at a number of interesting empirical regularities about wage distributions. Our results suggest that cross-sectional data on individual wages contain the basic information needed to obtain a reliable measure of the “magnitude of labor market frictions”, as measured by a parameter of the canonical job search model. Finally, we use our results in a cross-country comparison of the intensity and nature of job-to-job turnover. We arrange countries into two different groups according to their turnover intensity. We further show that the nature of job-to-job turnover is very different between those two groups: Turnover is predominantly voluntary in low-turnover countries, whereas it is to a large extent involuntary in high-turnover countries.     

Skill Loss, Ranking of Job Applicants and the Dynamics of Unemployment

Abstract. This paper investigates the consequences of skill loss as a result of unemployment in an efficiency wage model with turnover costs and on-the-job search. Firms are unable to differentiate wages and therefore prefer to hire employed searchers or unemployed workers who have not lost human capital. It is shown that if some fundamental factor in the economy changes, this will result in a lengthy adjustment process with substantial long-run unemployment effects. Moreover, the model is capable of generating persistence, but the amount depends on the duration of the shock itself.     

Minimum wage, exports and growth

Using an endogenous growth model in an open economy, we study the impact of minimum wages on growth for an innovator country. We state that a minimum wage shifts efforts from production to R&D, but only in an open economy. Thus, it speeds up long-run growth in proportional to exports. Calibrations suggest the growth surplus can be significant. An empirical study on 11 OECD countries illustrates these results. The impact on welfare is ambiguous because the minimum wage induces unemployment. However, we show that in an open economy, a minimum wage associated with unemployment benefits can Pareto dominate laissez-faire.     

Labor market cycles, unemployment insurance eligibility, and moral hazard

If entitlement to UI benefits must be earned with employment, generous UI is an additional benefit to working, so, by itself, it promotes job creation. If individuals are risk neutral, then there is a UI contribution scheme that eliminates any effect of UI on employment decisions. As with Ricardian Equivalence, this result should be useful to pinpoint the effects of UI to violations of its premises. Our baseline simulation shows that if the neutral contribution scheme derived in this paper were to be implemented, the average unemployment rate in the United States would fall from 5.7 to 4.7 percent. Also, the results show that with endogenous UI eligibility, one can simultaneously generate realistic productivity driven cycles and realistic responses of unemployment to changes in UI benefits.     

Search equilibrium and social and private returns to education

Social and private returns to education are computed using the structural estimates of an extended Burdett-Mortensen search equilibrium model. The extension includes different skill groups linked via a production function with variable degree of homogeneity, allowing thereby for a unimodal earnings density with a decreasing right tail. We find that the decreasing unemployment risk for higher skill groups and the absence of tuition fees in Germany increase private returns and lead to a too large share of high skilled individuals in the workforce, which is suboptimal from the social point of view.     

Unemployment dynamics with international capital mobility

We study the response of domestic unemployment rates to shocks in total factor productivity for economies with high capital mobility and low labour mobility. We show that high capital mobility amplifies the impact on the domestic unemployment rate of domestic fluctuations in total factor productivity, shortens the lag of the response to shocks and raises the variability of unemployment. But average unemployment is unaffected. Capital flows increase the riskiness of labour income and reduce the riskiness of capital income but do not reduce mean welfare.     

The East German wage structure after transition1

Abstract We extend the literature on transition economies’ wage structures by investigating the returns to tenure and experience. This study applies recent panel data and estimation approaches that control for hitherto neglected biases. We compare the life‐cycle structure of East and West German wages for fulltime employed men in the private sector. The patterns in the returns to seniority are similar for the two regional labour markets. The returns to experience lag behind in the East German labour market, even almost 20 years after unification, with significant differences particularly for high‐skill workers. The results are robust when only individuals who started their labour market career in the market economy are considered. We expect that the different returns are related to the heterogeneity of work experience gathered in East as compared with West Germany.     

A note on the life-cycle search and matching model with segmented labor markets

Recently, there has been renewed interest in labor search and matching models that incorporate a life-cycle structure by assuming finite horizons. Existing studies provide detailed analyses on the age dynamics of job creation and destruction, assuming that workers of all ages search for jobs in the same market. This paper examines a related environment that has drawn less attention, where the labor market is exogenously segmented by age. The paper finds sufficient conditions for the model to yield unambiguous predictions on the age profiles of key variables, and compares them with the corresponding conditions in models with a single market. The paper further examines the age profiles of these key variables in the efficient allocation. In particular, with no persistence in idiosyncratic match productivity, the efficient allocation is found to exhibit monotonic age profiles for the job finding and separation rates.     

Optimal contracts and the role of the government in wage bargaining

This paper introduces a contract between the government and trade unions in a model of strategic wage bargaining à la Lippi (2003). It shows that an optimal contract can be implemented through an appropriately defined inflation target.