旅游发展会影响居民消费吗?——来自中国的经验证据

文章构建了两个衡量旅游发展的代理指标,运用动态面板数据系统广义矩估计方法对旅游发展、经济增长与居民消费之间的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果显示,在中国整体层面上,旅游发展对居民消费具有显著正向影响关系,然而这种正向关系的影响效应较小;旅游发展滞后项并不显著,意味着旅游发展对居民消费促进作用的动态持续效应并不明显,导致在一定时间段内旅游发展对居民消费呈倒U型的影响关系.在区域层面上,东部地区旅游发展对居民消费具有显著正向影响关系;中部地区同样存在上述正向影响关系,但估计结果显示这种关系并不十分稳健;西部地区旅游发展对居民消费影响关系则不显著.针对上述问题,最后提出了相应的政策建议.     

旅游发展、空间溢出与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据

针对传统经验研究文献忽视空间相关性而导致的研究结论偏颇问题,文章采用经济学较为前沿的空间面板计量方法,利用中国30个省份1999~2009年面板数据,实证检验了旅游发展与经济增长之间的影响关系。研究结果表明:旅游发展呈现出明显的空间自相关性,具有显著空间集聚特征,大部分省份处于高-高和低-低类型区;旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向促进作用,传统面板回归模型没有考虑空间相关性,高估了这一作用;旅游发展对经济增长存在显著空间溢出效应,并具有较强的稳健性。     

制度变迁对中国旅游经济增长的贡献——基于市场化进程的视角

面向市场化的制度变迁是推动中国旅游经济发展的重要力量。文章以市场化指数表征制度变迁,利用各省份的市场化指数与旅游经济面板数据,从时空角度剖析中国制度变迁对旅游经济增长的贡献。通过ADF单位根、E-G两步协整模型和格兰杰因果模型检验显示,从1997年到2009年,中国市场化进程与旅游经济增长存在稳定的协整关系,制度变迁对旅游经济增长存在单向的格兰杰因果作用关系;固定效应模型回归显示,市场化对旅游经济增长的贡献效应明显,这一时期全要素生产率增长的14.47%和旅游经济增长的4.45%是由市场化改革贡献的,且随着市场化进程的推进,贡献效应还在加强;制度变迁对不同区域的旅游经济增长呈现显著的正效应,但具有较大的区域差异,总体而言,市场化水平越高的区域,旅游经济越发达,区域的市场化变迁程度越强,对旅游经济增长的边际贡献度越大。中国的市场化体制改革还远没有完成,改革依然是中国尤其是中西部省份旅游经济增长的后发优势。     

中国沿海地区旅游绿色发展对生态环境质量的影响分析

推动沿海地区旅游绿色发展,减少旅游业对资源与环境的压力,有利于保护旅游目的地的海洋生态系统,实现旅游与生态协调可持续发展。本研究以2011—2020年中国沿海地区11个省（市、区）面板数据为研究样本,采用空间计量模型估计方法,分析沿海地区旅游绿色发展对生态环境质量的影响。结果表明：（1）中国沿海地区旅游绿色发展水平与生态环境质量持续、稳步提升,且在地理空间上呈现较显著的空间集聚与关联特征;（2）旅游绿色发展对生态环境质量具有明显的正向影响及空间溢出效应,中国沿海地区各省份旅游绿色发展水平每提升1%,本地生态环境质量将上升0.302%,邻近省份将上升0.139%;(3)旅游绿色发展与第三产业、科技支出的交互作用能够有效增强其对生态环境质量的正向影响,但与第二产业、人口数量的交互作用会降低其对生态环境质量的正向影响。为实现中国沿海地区旅游绿色转型发展,应重视海洋第三产业发展及科技水平提升,促进污染排放整体下降,提升生态环境质量。     

The impact of holiday tourism development on tourism total factor productivity: Evidence from China

Tourism development during holiday periods may influence tourism total factor productivity (TTFP) in the industry. However, little is known about the impact of holiday tourism on TTFP. Focusing on China's Golden Week holiday system, this study applies dynamic panel models to test the effect of holiday tourism development on TTFP with panel data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2001 to 2019. The study also compares the effects before and after 2008 when the Golden Week holiday system changed from three weeks to two weeks with shorter holiday breaks. Results show that holiday tourism development has a negative effect on TTFP. Before 2008, the magnitude of the negative effect was constant while after 2008 the negative effect was reduced significantly. This study contributes to the understanding of TTFP from a holiday tourism perspective. The findings offer valuable implications for national holiday governance and tourism productivity in developing countries.     

中国省域入境旅游发展的空间计量建模与影响因素效应研究

空间计量模型在旅游研究中已得到有效应用,解决了旅游产业发展中的一些实际问题,但还需进一步改进与完善。文章以中国省域入境旅游发展为着眼点,增设扩散转移矩阵为模型因变量滞后的空间权重矩阵,以反映入境旅游在中国省域之间的客流人数扩散转移实际情况,同时从最为全面的广义嵌套空间模型入手,引入旅游研究空间计量模型系统,并以区域入境旅游发展影响因素为模型自变量,构建了入境旅游发展的最优空间计量模型,最后对模型显著自变量的直接效应、溢出效应、总效应进行评估分析,给出区域入境旅游发展建议。结果显示:模型自变量出现显著消极效应的影响因素几乎为酒店供应,加强旅游资源建设和经济水平发展始终是入境旅游发展的重要途径,而开放程度已对东部省域的影响较为微弱,对中部和西部省域则起到很好的积极效应,同时交通设施在中部省域呈现出非常强劲的溢出效应。     

Recent Tourism and Hospitality Research in China

ABSTRACT

Although China's tourism has become a vital part in the world tourism market, little is known internationally about tourism and hospitality research in China. This study reviewed 500 articles published from 2000 to 2005 in China's leading tourism research journal, Tourism Tribune, and provided an overview of China's recent tourism and hospitality research. Content analysis results showed that tourism research themes in China primarily focused on tourism attraction/resources development and management, tourism planning, and tourism industry development issues. Most research under review used a qualitative approach, while 15% of the articles employed some quantitative methods. Articles using advanced statistical techniques were scarce.     

Coastal development in France: Tourism as a tool for regional development

The coastal development for tourism, of Languedoc-Roussillon in South West France represents one of the leading examples of State investment in tourism as a means of regional development. Examination is made of the administration, planning and implementation of the tourism project in Languedoc-Roussillon and its success is evaluated in terms of seasonality, its effect on income and employment in the region, the social value of the project and its contribution to the national balance of payments. On the basis of these evaluations it is argued that the tourism project has achieved only moderate success and tourism alone has not solved, and is unlikely to solve, the region's basic problems. The lessons of its use as a tool for regional development in Languedoc-Roussillon are of relevance to national governments everywhere.     

中国旅游全要素生产率差异与收敛实证研究

本文利用非参数DEA—Malmquist指数方法测算了2001～2009年中国省际旅游全要素生产率,并进行生产率指数分解,对中国旅游全要素生产率时序变化和区域差异进行了分析,之后又利用经济增长收敛理论对中国旅游全要素生产率进行了盯和口收敛性检验。实证研究结果表明,中国旅游全要素生产率年均增长12．7％,其中,技术进步创新率为6．7％,技术效率增长5．6％,技术进步是中国旅游全要素生产率增长的主要源泉;中国旅游全要素生产率存在显著的时空差异性;中国旅游全要素生产率并不存在显著矿收敛和条件18收敛,但存在显著绝对卢收敛,说明中国各地区旅游全要素生产率差距正在逐步缩小,最终收敛于相同的稳态均衡水平,然而由于中国旅游业发展尚未达到成熟阶段,所以现阶段中国旅游全要素生产率增长尚未找到自身合适的条件收敛路径。     

A framework to account for the tourism carbon footprint at island destinations

Given concerns over greenhouse gases and the role of tourism in generating such environmental externality, a consistent carbon measurement framework is needed. This paper combines principles derived from production and consumption accounting measures to better allocate the responsibility for carbon emissions. Utilizing a boundary that includes domestic tourism expenditure, inbound tourism expenditure, and local spending associated with outbound travel, this paper (a) proposes a framework to measure the domestic total carbon effect and foreign-sourced effect, and (b) applies the analytical framework to Taiwan. The empirical study indicates that the carbon emissions for domestic tourism industries, international aviation, and imports accounted for 47%, 28% and 25% of the tourism carbon footprint. It is suggested that an island's dependence on both aviation and international trade leads to a larger share of emissions outside their geographic territory with respect to tourism development.     

旅游发展对我国投资、消费和出口需求的拉动效应研究

传统观念认为,旅游业能有力拉动国民消费需求。其实,旅游业发展也会引致多方面的投资需求,如景区开发、基础设施建设等。因此,旅游业发展对国民经济增长具有综合性的拉动作用。文章依据宏观经济学理论,构建了入境旅游与国内旅游对投资、消费和出口增长分析的理论框架,并利用1982~2010年相关数据,分析了旅游"两大部门"对中国经济增长"三大驱动力"的影响。研究发现:(1)发展入境旅游与国内旅游,因景区开发和旅游基础设施建设,对扩大投资有一定的正效应;(2)作为综合消费和最终消费,旅游业对扩大消费有着显著的正效应,其中,国内旅游的作用远高于入境旅游;(3)比较而言,入境旅游对出口贸易具有积极的拉动作用,而国内旅游对出口的拉动效应则不明显。因此,积极贯彻实施旅游产业发展政策,大力发展国内旅游和入境旅游,是中国当前保增长、扩内需的重要途径。     

Tourism specialization,economic growth,human development and transition economies: The case of Poland

This study examines the relationship between tourism specialization economic growth, and human development in a transition economy. It proffers a conceptual link between tourism specialization and human development through a division of labor framework. Dynamic comparative advantage, Sen's capability approach, and the translog production function characterize the conceptual relationship. The Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) estimates this relationship's nature in the case of Poland. Tourism specialization has a short-term effect on economic growth and a negative and indirect link to human development. Economic growth seems the channel that supports human development expansion, indicating short- and long-term significant, positive effects. Human capital reveals a U- shape pattern in its relationship with economic growth and human development. The study's implications are two testable propositions and two policy options suggesting tourism specialization's potential impact on private and public incomes, which are relevant developmental channels in transition economies.     

Exploring the nexus between urbanisation,inflation and tourism output: empirical evidences from the Fiji Islands

The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between urbanisation, inflation and tourism output of Fiji. This study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test to examine the relationship between urbanisation, inflation and tourism output by using annual time series data for the period 1985–2015. This study has found that urbanisation, inflation and tourism output share a long-run relationship when urbanisation and inflation are used as the dependent variables. The results of this study confirm that in the long run, tourism output has a significant and positive impact on urbanisation. This implies that a 1% increase in tourism output will increase urbanisation by 0.000165%. In the short run, urbanisation and inflation do not affect the tourism output of Fiji. The findings from this study have implications for the policy-makers and practitioners. Policy-makers should play an essential role in expanding tourism activities in the rural areas. In Fiji, there is development disparity between the urban and rural areas. The government has to invest more financial resources in the development of tourism activities in the rural areas.     

云南省团队游空间结构及其聚散效应研究

在旅游业高质量快速发展的背景下,全面厘清与掌握省域尺度范围各旅游节点在网络中的角色和地位,并解析其网络结构效应具有重大意义。针对现有研究因旅游流数据采集限制而较少对团队游空间结构研究的不足,基于云南省旅游包车客运信息,运用社会网络结合空间分析的方法,提取了云南省团队游网络空间结构特征,并对其聚散效应进行分析。结果表明:云南省团队游整体网络密度较小且淡旺季表现出相似特征,网络对各节点的旅游联系与合作影响尚未显现,暴露出云南省团队游旅游市场发展的不均衡;团队游网络外向中心势显著高于内向中心势,网络空间集聚趋势明显;通常具有较强外向中心性的旅游节点同时也具有较强内向中心性,表现出“集中—发散”的聚散规律;旅游节点的聚散效应表现为单个节点以圈层状向外递减形式发生,其扩散路径主要集中于文山—蒙自、景洪—思茅方向。整体上,云南省区域旅游业发展差异明显,应重点加强滇西南与滇西旅游区、滇中与滇东北旅游区的旅游资源开发与合作。     

新疆边境旅游发展演化特征及其影响因素——霍尔果斯案例

在“一带一路”倡议背景下,中国边境旅游进入新的发展机遇期。作为丝绸之路经济带核心区,新疆的区位优势正日益凸显,边境旅游受到各级政府重视。本文基于霍尔果斯口岸地区的实地调查,通过对地方政府和企业代表进行半结构式访谈,结合大量二手资料,剖析了新疆边境旅游发展演化特征及其影响因素。研究发现,新疆边境旅游呈现出两阶段发展演化特征,分别是20世纪90年代的入境购物商贸游和21世纪以来的国内口岸观光游。中国与周边国家的地缘政治与经济格局、新疆安全形势、口岸区位、区域社会经济发展水平以及旅游供给水平是新疆边境旅游发展的主要影响因素。本文丰富了中国边境旅游区域差异性研究,对新疆边境旅游发展具有现实参考价值。     

内生性视角下的多元化与旅游企业价值关系

过去数十年来,国内外不少学者就企业多元化与企业价值之间关系进行了比较深入的探讨,但现有研究工作在解释两者关系时并未得到一致性的结论,同时,现有相关研究也很少以旅游企业为研究对象.因此,文章选择具有“天生”多元化经营动机的旅游企业为研究对象,通过科学测度其多元化经营程度,并采用内生性视角探讨多元化经营的内生性及其对企业价值的影响,以期为我国旅游企业的多元化发展提供指导.文章通过严格的数据筛选,选取大陆15家旅游上市公司2006～2009年的面板数据资料,用收入熵衡量多元化经营程度,用ROA衡量企业价值,采用STATA软件进行面板回归及二阶段最小二乘法进行实证分析.结果表明:企业资产规模、公司成长性、企业价值与股权集中度对旅游上市公司多元化经营程度具有显著性正向影响,证明了多元化经营的内生性;在外生性视角下,旅游上市公司的多元化经营程度与企业价值显著正相关,存在3％左右的多元化溢价效应;在内生性视角下,旅游上市公司的多元化经营对企业价值的正向促进作用进一步提升,溢价效应在6％左右.     

China's outbound tourism – Stages,policies and choices

China's outbound tourism has developed rapidly in recent years. This development has been accompanied by a continuous and expanding deficit in the tourism balance of trade, triggering debate among government officials and academia about whether China's outbound tourism development has outgrown general economic development. Understanding China's growth in outbound tourism and its impact has therefore become more than an academic issue; it also affects the future orientation of China's tourism policy. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the tourists, spatial flow, market size, and expenditure. Despite the above concerns, it is suggested that China's outbound tourism is still in a preliminary stage of development and furthermore complies fully with national policies. Therefore, orderly guidance and discretionary market policies are proposed to further facilitate the growth of the outbound tourism market in China.     

论当代旅游发展理论的构建:理念、框架与要点

随着大众旅游初级阶段的到来,我国旅游业也相应进入了国家战略体系,加上旅游教育和人才培养层次的提升,基于中国学术立场和现实诉求的理论创新已是当务之急。在分析总结旅游发展阶段特征和当代旅游发展的核心价值取向的基础上,文章提出了当代旅游发展理论的核心观点:构建以旅游法为核心的国家意志体系,以旅游经济监测与预警为中心的宏观调控体系,以游客满意为导向的微观监管体系。     

旅游经济发展是否促进了共同富裕——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

学界对旅游经济发展是否推进了共同富裕尚存在争议。文章运用中国1999-2019年省际面板数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型,采用地理和经济特征双重视角构造4种空间权重矩阵,考察旅游经济发展对共同富裕的影响和空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）地理特征和经济特征均会对旅游经济发展促进共同富裕的空间效应产生影响,其中经济特征影响更大;（2）旅游经济发展显著促进了共同富裕,既提升了总体富裕水平,又具有“分好蛋糕”的共享效应,但目前“做大蛋糕”效应更强,而且旅游经济的溢出效应在缩小地区经济差异方面尚有较大提升空间。（3）旅游经济发展水平会影响产业结构合理化对共同富裕的作用系数,呈倒“U”型的双门槛特征,旅游经济发展水平较低时,要积极推进产业结构转型升级,但当旅游经济发展到一定水平后,要注重产业结构转型的合理化,避免产业空心化。