The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows

Notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows, hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect. Drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. The study employs a system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. The results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals.     

Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for Portugal

We propose the use of a tool recently introduced by Gayer (2010), known as the “economic climate tracer”, to analyze and monitor the cyclical evolution of tourism source markets to Portugal. Considering the period 1987–2015, we evaluate how tourism to Portugal has been affected by economic cycles. This tool is useful as it clearly illustrates the evolutionary patterns of different markets, and allows us to identify close relationships with economic fluctuations. We found that German tourism plays a leading role, since its movements are followed with delays by tourism flows from other countries, and exhibits higher resilience to shocks. Also, domestic and Spanish tourism have both displayed less irregular behaviors than tourism from other source markets. On the contrary, tourism from the Netherlands and the UK, have displayed irregular patterns, which demonstrates the urgency to diversify tourism source markets to reduce the country's vulnerability to external shocks and economic cycles.     

The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.     

The impact of terrorism on European tourism

This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types.     

United States international tourism policy

This article describes the key mechanisms in the United States for tourism policy-making. It points out the importance of tourism policy and planning for the orderly growth of tourism in the future. The important features of the National Tourism Policy Act of 1981 are presented. The article concludes by suggesting the policy role of the United States Government in furthering tourism interests within the context of international economic and trade policy.     

Short-run and long-run performance of international tourism: Evidence from Bayesian dynamic models

Measuring the technical efficiency of the tourism industry is essential for evaluating tourism sustainability and reshaping tourism activities. This paper introduces for the first time a new dynamic stochastic frontier model to 1-measure and compare the short-run and long-run technical efficiencies of leading tourism destinations, and 2-provide impulse response functions and persistence measures to trace out the dynamic effect of shocks in technical inefficiency. We develop our model in a Bayesian framework using carefully constructed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We report efficiency results and persistence scores for individual destinations and discuss how different destinations recover from shocks in tourism performance.     

Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia

Immigration can potentially influence tourism flows. However, in spite of the vast number of studies on tourism demand modelling, the immigration-tourism linkage has not received much attention in the empirical literature. This paper seeks to address this gap. A dynamic demand model is developed and estimated using data from 1980 to 2008 for the 15 main markets of Australia. The explanatory variables included are income, own price, price of a substitute destination, airfare and immigration. The estimation results empirically establish the connection between immigration and inbound tourism. The short run and long-run immigration elasticities generated are 0.028 and 0.09 respectively. Additionally this paper demonstrates that omission of prices of substitutes affects the value of the own price elasticity of demand. The results have implications for future research and for stakeholders who can improve the efficiency of their planning exercises by taking into account additional information on immigration trends.     

Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence

The purpose of this study is to advance the tourism demand theory by excluding simultaneous effects of exchange rates and prices in empirical models, formulating an alternative pricing modus operandi consistent with recent research in the area, and demonstrating the efficacy of the use of an industrial production index (IPI) as a proxy for income. A panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method is employed to estimate the inbound tourism demand for Turkey. Study findings suggest that the inclusion of exchange rates and prices, as mutually exclusive components, can be misleading; the IPI is not a good proxy for income; and country-specific coefficients need to be analyzed to accurately explain determinants of tourism demand for countries in the panel.     

Effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures

This paper implements a logistic transition regression model to examine the relationships between GDP per capita and international tourism expenditures across countries in 2001–2010 by types of savings regimes. While studies have focused on the effect of income on international tourism expenditures, none consider the nonlinear smooth transition status of savings and its impacts on discretionary spending and hence expenditure on tourism. The impact of income on tourism expenditures can vary under different savings regimes. The results show that in a low savings regime the effect of an increase in the GDP per capita on international tourism expenditures is more pronounced. In a high-savings regime, there is strong motivation for precautionary savings and tourism is considered a luxury; therefore such spending is crowded out by an increase in savings as GDP per capita increases. Although international tourism expenditures also increase with GDP per capita, they do so at a slower rate. These findings establish an accurate understanding of the effects of savings on international tourism expenditures.     

Balancing tourism education and training

This paper assumes that tourism educated and trained students play different roles (in driving future tourist demands and in meeting current tourist preferences, respectively), and it states that the main features characterising the four stakeholders involved in the design, development and implementation of tourism programmes (firms, students, educational and governmental institutions), together with the main facts they face in taking their decisions, lead to a non-optimal strategic long-run equilibrium, where tourism non-graduated or differently-from-tourism graduated employees prevail. The development of an evolutionary model allows to identify the main features characterising firms and students, to be focused on by educational and governmental institutions, in order to move towards the optimal equilibrium, where tourism graduated employees prevail, while the development of a dynamic model allows to show that this equilibrium is not detrimental to tourism trained employees. This work also suggests a possible educational strategy that could allow to move away from the non-optimal equilibrium, by achieving public objectives (such as environmental or ethical tourism), by relying on feasible educational approaches (about what and how to teach), and by taking into account the private characteristics (of firms and students). Therefore, balancing tourism education and training is both possible and beneficial to all stakeholders involved.     

The impacts of immigrants and institutions on bilateral tourism flows

In this paper, we use data on recent bilateral tourism flow from 34 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to 52 middle-to low-income countries for the period 1995–2010 to determine whether immigration, trade and institutional quality play a role in driving OECD nationals to visit immigrant-source countries. Except for the African countries, the results show that immigrants residing in OECD countries have a positive advertising effect for their home country, inducing tourism flows from OECD countries. We also find that the quality of institutions, along with freedom and civil liberty indices, are important in selecting tourism destinations. A massive 8% of the variation in tourism flows can be accounted for by these factors. These results hold for the subsample and the whole sample with two exceptions: European and African destinations. We posit that this feature of the data exists because European (African) countries are so similar to each other, and small differences in the indexes do not matter at the top (bottom) of the distribution. By controlling for gravity and macroeconomic stability variables, we also show that the trade flows between countries, among other factors, play a crucial and stable role on tourism flows. Dynamic panel data estimation is used to account for the influence of repeat visits and support our findings.     

Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

Perceptions of tourism promotion and business challenges: A survey-based comparison of tourism businesses and promotion organizations

Tourism is an important economic development driver in the U.S. especially in rural areas. Most US regions have tourism-related economic development organizations to assist the local industry. Despite such assistance, however, many tourism-based businesses struggle. One possible reason is a disconnect between business needs and the activities of related organizations. This study uses survey data from tourism-based businesses and tourism promotion and economic development organizations in rural western Pennsylvania and West Virginia to compare how the various actors perceive the most pressing tourism promotion efforts and business challenges. In general, tourism businesses and support organizations agree on the promotional needs of tourism-based businesses and hold similar perceptions about industry problems. However, tourism promotion agencies underestimate the role of the internet in promotions and perceive workforce issues differently than do businesses. Better alignment of priorities within tourism partnerships should enhance promotional and educational efforts as well as the integration of tourism into overall economic development efforts.     

The learning style preferences of hospitality and tourism students: Observations from an international and cross-cultural study

This paper reports on a study of the learning style preferences of new entrants onto hospitality and tourism programmes in Australia and the United Kingdom. It suggests that a majority of students on these programmes in both countries have strong learning style preference that present some challenges to educators and the planning of learning experiences in higher education. Typically these students prefer learning styles that are concrete rather than abstract, and active rather than reflective. Furthermore, substantial minorities register low or very low preferences for learning in abstract and reflective styles. The initial learning style of new entrants on to taught programmes, therefore, present substantial teaching and learning barriers for educators who are attempting to develop reflective practitioners. Inappropriate teaching strategies can present some genuine learning difficulties for these students. In Australia, educators face added complexity because students from Confucian heritage backgrounds display learning style preferences at odds with their piers. They are more likely to respond positively to abstract and reflective approaches but negatively to active and concrete teaching strategies. The authors suggest one way of approaching the learning needs of these students is to use Kolb's experiential learning cycle as a way of encouraging the development of ‘balanced’ learning strategies that lead to reflective practice.     

Tourism development and the tourism area life-cycle model: A case study of Zhangjiajie National Forest Park, China

The conceptual framework of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) has been frequently examined since it was first proposed by Butler in 1980. However, few studies have applied the concept to national parks and other protected areas. This paper examines the applicability of the model to China's Zhangjiajie National Forest Park. In addition, both external and internal factors affecting the park's tourism development as well as the environmental, social, and economic changes of the area are also discussed. Results indicate that the park has experienced the first four stages as described in Butler's 1980 seminal paper [The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution: Implications for management of resources. Canadian Geographer, 24, 5–12]. Currently, the park is in the consolidation stage. Both governments and the private sector are major players as catalysts for the park's tourism development from one stage to the next. While the local or even regional economy has become increasingly dependent on tourism, the park has also been experiencing noticeable transformation and loss of traditional cultures since its inception in 1982. Finally limitations to the current paper are outlined.     

Local tourism cycle and external business cycle

This paper uses a Markov switching model (MSM) to decompose Macao’s tourism cycle into high and low growth states (HGS, LGS) for the period of 2005Q2–2017Q2. The likelihood of the cycle maintaining HGS is 93% but the risk of staying in LGS is 80%. The Macao cycle is favorably asymmetric, with HGS (14.7 quarters) lasting much longer than LGS (5.1 quarters). Further, the paper combines structural regressions with the MSM to identify determinants of the Macao cycle, with useful policy implications derived from the regression results. We find that Macao’s tourism cycle is heavily affected by Mainland China’s business cycle and other external factors. Additionally, outward-looking marketing, albeit very costly, is found to be effective for keeping the local cycle in HGS.     

Evaluation of the impact of the tourism nation promotion project on inbound tourists in Japan: a difference-in-differences approach

This study quantitatively evaluates the impact of the Tourism Nation Promotion Project on tourism demand. Data were obtained from Japan Tourism Agency’s quarterly survey from 2010Q2 to 2015Q4. Cox and zero-truncated negative binomial models and difference-in-differences approach were applied to analyze tourism demand and the project’s impact on inbound tourists’ length of stay and expenditure in Japan. Empirical results showed a positive and significant average treatment effect on length of stay and expenditure for tourists from Australia, China, Russia, and Thailand. These findings indicate that the Japanese government should use differentiated strategies considering different nationalities’ characteristics to attract foreign tourists.     

Forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris: Accuracy of uni- and multivariate models employing monthly data

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive accuracy of various uni- and multivariate models in forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris from its five most important foreign source markets (Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and US). In order to achieve this, seven different forecast models are applied: EC-ADLM, classical and Bayesian VAR, TVP, ARMA, and ETS, as well as the naïve-1 model serving as a benchmark. The accuracy of the forecast models is evaluated in terms of the RMSE and the MAE. The results indicate that for the US and UK source markets, univariate models of ARMA(1,1) and ETS are more accurate, but that multivariate models are better predictors for the German and Italian source markets, in particular (Bayesian) VAR. For the Japanese source market, the results vary according to the forecast horizon. Overall, the naïve-1 benchmark is significantly outperformed across nearly all source markets and forecast horizons.     

A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism

In this paper, we construct and use a piecewise linear method to model and forecast, on a monthly basis, the demand for Macau tourism. Data over the period January 1991–December 2005 and a seasonally adjusted series for tourism demand are used. The study examines 4 forecasting horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months in advance. Mean absolute percentage errors and root mean square errors are adopted as criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the forecasting exercises. Finally, the forecasts of piecewise linear model are compared with those of autoregressive trend model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and its arch-rival fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models. The piecewise linear model is more accurate than the three benchmark models tested and the improvement is practically significant.     

Cultural and non-cultural tourism: Evidence from Italian experience

Cultural tourism is recognized as one of the main resources used to counteract seasonality in tourist destinations, being by its very nature non-seasonal. Moreover, according to the generally accepted stereotype, cultural tourists tend to be ageing and therefore more likely to travel also during the off-peak season than younger tourists. Our data show that international cultural tourism has increased in Italy during the last 15 years, but this increase has not contributed to reducing seasonality. We have conducted a statistical analysis of the data in an attempt to explore the possible reasons behind such an unexpected finding. By comparing foreign cultural and non-cultural tourists through several socio-economic-demographic variables, our results highlight the fact that a “new (and younger) cultural tourism” is emerging in Italy. Consequently, promoting cultural tourism is just one component for effectively counteracting seasonality. Nevertheless, promotion should also focus on the dual concept of “cultural tourism/ageing tourists”.